The decision to pick McCartin.

[damienc]

Contemplate this.

We could have taken Petracca, Bontempelli and Caleb Daniel.

All three were open for us to select.

Instead we took McCartin, Billings and Lonie.

I know hindsight is not worth much, but we could have/should have done better. IMO.

[SaintPav]

And yet with no concussions McMartin was exactly what we did need...split packs, took great marks, decent kick for goal, led beautifully.

But for hindsight....we'd all be trillionaires....


Why didn't you buy any Bitcoin in 2011 for 11 cents a piece? Don't you care about your family? Don't you have any concern for their welfare? Surely you did research on how to best invest for their futures? Didn't you see Bitcoin at $81,000 a piece?

Okay, you missed 2011. Why didn't you invest in 2020 when Bitcoin was $4600? Surely you realised how badly you'd stuffed up and invested everything?? Right?

Of course not. You did the best with what knowledge was in your sphere, you resisted taking a risk or trying something out of the norm....you lost big.

Isn't it your job to provide? How are you still even considered a part of the family after such a sickening stuff up?

Hindsight. Its a b1tch

I had 23 Bitcoin in 2017 I paid $22425 and sold them for $36,589 because I was worried. By the end of 2017 they were worth $462,047, at their peak in 2021 they were worth $1,863,000.

I was pathetic, scared, listened to the " good advice" of a financial advisor at CWB.

Don't be so hard on yourself for having zero foresight or no vision. We all play it safe, including St Kilda.

But does that fit your rage narrative? Nah.

Carry on blaming people for having the same lack of foresight you have....

Well, if the club used your principle of minimising risk, they would have gone for Petracca.

Your adviser should have advised you to sell two thirds of your BTC and let the profits run on the remainder, but who would have known.

Buy ETH.

[Ghost Like]

Paddy wasn't some rank outsider in the draft. It is easy to say now that Petracca was the clear standout but McCartin was not just in the conversation, he was a genuine top level draft pick.

The Age had an article that had Heeny number 1, but he was always going to be a Swan.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/201 ... 1nfn5.html

An interesting quote is:

After Heeney, it gets harder. Any one of Christian Petracca, Paddy McCartin, Darcy Moore or Angus Brayshaw could have come next on my list, they're so difficult to separate. I flipped Petracca and McCartin around so many times, I don't envy St Kilda's need to settle on one over the other.

ABC had Petracca 1, Brayshaw then McCartin.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-25/ ... nd/5910704

These are just a couple of sources, there a so many more that have McCartin at the top end of the draft.

It didn't work out, but I have no problem with him being pick 1. In most cases I believe, like most, a gun key position player is more important than a gun midfielder.

Diabetes can be managed. That wasn't the problem. The concussions were.

There are studies that having diabetes can mean worse symptoms in brain damage after concussion. But there aren't any papers that I can find that say diabetics are more prone to concussion than anyone else.
I have found that there ARE studies and papers that suggest an individual is more susceptible to concussions and brain injury after they have already experienced some level of brain trauma.

And let's not forget that concussion is brain trauma.

But anyway, from what I have found it seems that concussions beget concussions and don't be diabetic if the begetting begins.

So, in my useless opinion, picking Paddy didn't work, but it wasn't because he wasn't rated and, probably, not because of his auto immune disease.

"top end" is a nice way of saying, "not number one".

A bit like "a podium finish" rather than "gold medallist".

I agree with the sentiments that this stuff can eat away at you. I'd hope it is eating away at our Board, our Management & our well paid recruiters. I do not have much left to be eaten, just old bones & fat.

[Vazelos]

I’ve had coffee a couple of times with Chris Pelchen and he told me the following.
Pelchen remember was moved on before the draft but shortly before he left the decision was to take Petracca.
When it was announced on Radio they had taken Mc Cartin, Pelchen moved to the side of the road and called Elshaug.
He said” What happened why didn’t we stick with Petracca?”
Elshaug reply” we didn’t like his interview came across as arrogant self absorbed etc”
Pelchen’s reply” What is he? An Axe Murderer?”.

Shaking his head as he recounted the conversation and this was several years ago when Petracca was still finding his feet.
He was by far the best player in that draft.
He was the obvious choice.
Billings over Bont at the time was not the obvious choice so I’m not going to slay them over that one but McCartin over Petracca is a generational mistake!!
I curse that idiot weekly!!!

[B.M]

Pelchen

The Lyle Lanley of footy!!!

[SaintPav]

I’ve had coffee a couple of times with Chris Pelchen and he told me the following.
Pelchen remember was moved on before the draft but shortly before he left the decision was to take Petracca.
When it was announced on Radio they had taken Mc Cartin, Pelchen moved to the side of the road and called Elshaug.
He said” What happened why didn’t we stick with Petracca?”
Elshaug reply” we didn’t like his interview came across as arrogant self absorbed etc”
Pelchen’s reply” What is he? An Axe Murderer?”.

Shaking his head as he recounted the conversation and this was several years ago when Petracca was still finding his feet.
He was by far the best player in that draft.
He was the obvious choice.
Billings over Bont at the time was not the obvious choice so I’m not going to slay them over that one but McCartin over Petracca is a generational mistake!!
I curse that idiot weekly!!!

OMG.

[The Billings Method]

Pelchen

The Lyle Lanley of footy!!!

He's gone on to have a great career recruiting with North Haverbrook, Brockway and Ogdenville. Gold, BM.

[skeptic]

Pelchen

The Lyle Lanley of footy!!!

He's gone on to have a great career recruiting with North Haverbrook, Brockway and Ogdenville. Gold, BM.

And by gum it put them on the map

Aaah the classics never die

This has made me smile

[Wayne42]

I’ve had coffee a couple of times with Chris Pelchen and he told me the following.
Pelchen remember was moved on before the draft but shortly before he left the decision was to take Petracca.
When it was announced on Radio they had taken Mc Cartin, Pelchen moved to the side of the road and called Elshaug.
He said” What happened why didn’t we stick with Petracca?”
Elshaug reply” we didn’t like his interview came across as arrogant self absorbed etc”
Pelchen’s reply” What is he? An Axe Murderer?”.

Shaking his head as he recounted the conversation and this was several years ago when Petracca was still finding his feet.
He was by far the best player in that draft.
He was the obvious choice.
Billings over Bont at the time was not the obvious choice so I’m not going to slay them over that one but McCartin over Petracca is a generational mistake!!
I curse that idiot weekly!!!

Even the Pelican knew Trout had farked up.

And he didn't need his spreadsheet to come to that conclusion.

[SaintPav]

I’ve had coffee a couple of times with Chris Pelchen and he told me the following.
Pelchen remember was moved on before the draft but shortly before he left the decision was to take Petracca.
When it was announced on Radio they had taken Mc Cartin, Pelchen moved to the side of the road and called Elshaug.
He said” What happened why didn’t we stick with Petracca?”
Elshaug reply” we didn’t like his interview came across as arrogant self absorbed etc”
Pelchen’s reply” What is he? An Axe Murderer?”.

Shaking his head as he recounted the conversation and this was several years ago when Petracca was still finding his feet.
He was by far the best player in that draft.
He was the obvious choice.
Billings over Bont at the time was not the obvious choice so I’m not going to slay them over that one but McCartin over Petracca is a generational mistake!!
I curse that idiot weekly!!!

Hold on a sec.

Petracca came across as arrogant and self-absorbed?

That describes the vast majority of teenagers.

Trout, you had one job.

Idiot.

[skeptic]

I’ve had coffee a couple of times with Chris Pelchen and he told me the following.
Pelchen remember was moved on before the draft but shortly before he left the decision was to take Petracca.
When it was announced on Radio they had taken Mc Cartin, Pelchen moved to the side of the road and called Elshaug.
He said” What happened why didn’t we stick with Petracca?”
Elshaug reply” we didn’t like his interview came across as arrogant self absorbed etc”
Pelchen’s reply” What is he? An Axe Murderer?”.

Shaking his head as he recounted the conversation and this was several years ago when Petracca was still finding his feet.
He was by far the best player in that draft.
He was the obvious choice.
Billings over Bont at the time was not the obvious choice so I’m not going to slay them over that one but McCartin over Petracca is a generational mistake!!
I curse that idiot weekly!!!

Hold on a sec.

Petracca came across as arrogant and self-absorbed?

That describes the vast majority of teenagers.

Trout, you had one job.

Idiot.

It’s fascinating because it makes you wonder what they’re looking for.

Would love to get a bit more insight into this interview process, the questions they ask etc

My experience in 15 years of mental health assessment including forensics is that when interviewing people, their actual answers to questions are by far the least informative/useful part of the process...

You get a lot more out of understanding thought processes and approaches to problem solving etc

Unfortunately without context... you don’t get much. For example, Petracca being self-absorbed and arrogant in another context may be him trying to demonstrate confidence and attention to detail.

Oh to be a fly on the wall

[Gershwin]

Paddy wasn't some rank outsider in the draft. It is easy to say now that Petracca was the clear standout but McCartin was not just in the conversation, he was a genuine top level draft pick.

The Age had an article that had Heeny number 1, but he was always going to be a Swan.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/201 ... 1nfn5.html

An interesting quote is:

After Heeney, it gets harder. Any one of Christian Petracca, Paddy McCartin, Darcy Moore or Angus Brayshaw could have come next on my list, they're so difficult to separate. I flipped Petracca and McCartin around so many times, I don't envy St Kilda's need to settle on one over the other.

ABC had Petracca 1, Brayshaw then McCartin.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-25/ ... nd/5910704

These are just a couple of sources, there a so many more that have McCartin at the top end of the draft.

It didn't work out, but I have no problem with him being pick 1. In most cases I believe, like most, a gun key position player is more important than a gun midfielder.

Diabetes can be managed. That wasn't the problem. The concussions were.

There are studies that having diabetes can mean worse symptoms in brain damage after concussion. But there aren't any papers that I can find that say diabetics are more prone to concussion than anyone else.
I have found that there ARE studies and papers that suggest an individual is more susceptible to concussions and brain injury after they have already experienced some level of brain trauma.

And let's not forget that concussion is brain trauma.

But anyway, from what I have found it seems that concussions beget concussions and don't be diabetic if the begetting begins.

So, in my useless opinion, picking Paddy didn't work, but it wasn't because he wasn't rated and, probably, not because of his auto immune disease.

Totally agree.
I can’t see that McCartin being cruelly cut down by head injuries reflects poor recruiting by St Kilda.
Could’ve been a champion.

[Devilhead]

Agree with everything except your 2nd paragraph. I am quite confident that without concussions he would have been at best average. Average being his very best. Such a poor, amateur, poorly reasoned decision driven by flawed logic.

Fair enough that's your opinion but I respectfully disagree given he was a key position player (big guy) who had shown some promising signs but was quite obviously still developing.

A good modern day comparison would be someone like Tom Hawkins - both debuted at 18 with Hawkins playing 19 games in his first 2 seasons and Paddy playing 17 games

Keep in mind that Hawkins played in a gun side in his early career whereas Paddy did not

In his career 35 games Paddy kicked 34 goals 36 behinds - 70 shots on goal
In Hawkins first 35 games he kicked 47 goals 26 behinds - 73 shots on goal

In his career 35 games Paddy took 159 marks (42 contested) - there was one 10 mark game & two 9 mark games
In Hawkins first 35 games took 177 marks (44 contested) - there was one 10 mark game & four 8 mark games

Also there were 5 games where Paddy had under 50% game time (two of those were 14% & 15%) - most of those were cut short due to concussion issues
Hawkins in his first 35 games only had one game where he played less than 60% game time and that was 51%

In conclusion, Paddy's career 35 games and some key FF stats were bang on par with Hawkins first 35 games ....... playing in a poorer side as well

Paddy was tracking just fine, unfortunately due to his concussion issues and little wayward kicking many supporters saw him as being shite ...... which is an indictment of those supporters not being able to see past his medical history and being drafted at pick 1

The kid could play!!

[Waltzing St Kilda]

Comparisons to Tom Hawkins are not completely off the mark, though Hawkins always looked fitter and wasn't dealing with Type-1 diabetes.

So Paddy could have developed into another Tom Hawkins. A Travis Cloke.

But not a Roo.

And that's what you need from a Number One pick.

Especially when another Dusty Martin (Petracca) is on offer.

Right now, for that matter, Max King is looking like a potential Tom Hawkins at best. That's both good and sad.

[amusingname]

I think that is underrating Hawkins a fair bit, if he had been a number 1 pick his career would be in the top handful of fellow number 1’s

[The Billings Method]

I’ve had coffee a couple of times with Chris Pelchen and he told me the following.
Pelchen remember was moved on before the draft but shortly before he left the decision was to take Petracca.
When it was announced on Radio they had taken Mc Cartin, Pelchen moved to the side of the road and called Elshaug.
He said” What happened why didn’t we stick with Petracca?”
Elshaug reply” we didn’t like his interview came across as arrogant self absorbed etc”
Pelchen’s reply” What is he? An Axe Murderer?”.

Shaking his head as he recounted the conversation and this was several years ago when Petracca was still finding his feet.
He was by far the best player in that draft.
He was the obvious choice.
Billings over Bont at the time was not the obvious choice so I’m not going to slay them over that one but McCartin over Petracca is a generational mistake!!
I curse that idiot weekly!!!

Did you poison his coffee, Vazelos? Here's hoping you did.

[B.M]

Hawkins is also huge - he is the ‘bear in the square’

198/103

[Ghost Like]

Agree with everything except your 2nd paragraph. I am quite confident that without concussions he would have been at best average. Average being his very best. Such a poor, amateur, poorly reasoned decision driven by flawed logic.

Fair enough that's your opinion but I respectfully disagree given he was a key position player (big guy) who had shown some promising signs but was quite obviously still developing.

A good modern day comparison would be someone like Tom Hawkins - both debuted at 18 with Hawkins playing 19 games in his first 2 seasons and Paddy playing 17 games

Keep in mind that Hawkins played in a gun side in his early career whereas Paddy did not

In his career 35 games Paddy kicked 34 goals 36 behinds - 70 shots on goal
In Hawkins first 35 games he kicked 47 goals 26 behinds - 73 shots on goal

In his career 35 games Paddy took 159 marks (42 contested) - there was one 10 mark game & two 9 mark games
In Hawkins first 35 games took 177 marks (44 contested) - there was one 10 mark game & four 8 mark games

Also there were 5 games where Paddy had under 50% game time (two of those were 14% & 15%) - most of those were cut short due to concussion issues
Hawkins in his first 35 games only had one game where he played less than 60% game time and that was 51%

In conclusion, Paddy's career 35 games and some key FF stats were bang on par with Hawkins first 35 games ....... playing in a poorer side as well

Paddy was tracking just fine, unfortunately due to his concussion issues and little wayward kicking many supporters saw him as being shite ...... which is an indictment of those supporters not being able to see past his medical history and being drafted at pick 1

The kid could play!!

Fair call & analysis devilhead, however I'm unsure Hawkins would have gone #1, certainly first round. Height is interesting as Paddy was /is not much taller than Petracca & severely limited in positional moves.

His medical history, diabetes, is very important. As was his ability to be on the park as a junior. Our due diligence & our reasoning was very poor. It is the concussion scenario allowing the incompetent off the hook.

[Devilhead]

Comparisons to Tom Hawkins are not completely off the mark, though Hawkins always looked fitter and wasn't dealing with Type-1 diabetes.

So Paddy could have developed into another Tom Hawkins. A Travis Cloke.

But not a Roo.

And that's what you need from a Number One pick.

Especially when another Dusty Martin (Petracca) is on offer.

Right now, for that matter, Max King is looking like a potential Tom Hawkins at best. That's both good and sad.

If it weren't being a father-son pick could Hawkins very likely would have gone no 1 in his draft

"Many pundits lauded him as the best key position prospect within the draft, and felt Hawkins' junior performances warranted possible selection with the top overall pick, the father-son rules at the time only required Geelong to use a middle-tier third round pick to draft him. The subsequent controversy over what was widely acknowledged as a bargain gain for the Cats led to the AFL amending the father-son ruling for future use."

"In the mid-year of 2006, Hawkins was selected to play in the 2006 AFL Under 18 Championships, lining up at full forward for Vic Metro. A best on ground performance which yielded twelve marks and six goals in the opening match against South Australia began a wave of unprecedented hype and attention, with Hawkins drawing comparisons to former Brisbane Lions forward, Jonathan Brown and leading Vic Metro coach David Dickson to declare the young forward as "the best footballer I've seen...since Chris Judd". Hawkins was awarded the Larke Medal as the most valuable player within division one and named as the tournament's All-Australian full-forward, just falling short of the all-time contested marking record held by Justin Koschitzke."

[Devilhead]

Fair call & analysis devilhead, however I'm unsure Hawkins would have gone #1, certainly first round. Height is interesting as Paddy was /is not much taller than Petracca & severely limited in positional moves.

His medical history, diabetes, is very important. As was his ability to be on the park as a junior. Our due diligence & our reasoning was very poor. It is the concussion scenario allowing the incompetent off the hook.

See post above

[Devilhead]

Height is interesting as Paddy was /is not much taller than Petracca & severely limited in positional moves.

Hawkins listed as 198cm
Paddy listed as 195cm
Petracca listed as 186cm

Paddy took 10 marks in one game and 9 marks in two other games and several 7 mark games - sounds to me like like a forward who could get on his bike and move around

I understand that Petracca is a gun and agree that we should have taken him - like many on here he was the one I wanted us to draft at the time

however

I am just getting a bit sick and tired of forumites whacking Paddy saying he was terrible when statistical evidence says otherwise for a young developing key position forward

The Hawkins comparisons are not made up crap - without his concussions issues Paddy might well be kicking 4 to 6 a game now

Alas we will never know just like when he was drafted we never knew he would suffer from concussion issues

[Devilhead]

Think its time to lock this thread and move on ......... unless of course Petracca does another knee then by all means open it up again ....... Devilhead evil emoji

[bigred]

Personally I would have been baulking at the diabetes issue.
Petracca was still the best player in the draft, but not the best key forward.

The importance of the decision here should have seen them minimising as much risk as possible.

Diabetes, skinfolds... That would have been enough for me. Thanks for your time but we are going in a different direction.

He would have gone to Melbourne. He may have had concussion issues, or he may not.

I reckon we gave him every opportunity and as much support as possible to succeed.

Ever seen the movie "The trouble with the curve"? Another example of putting self important flogs in charge of decisions like this.

[Devilhead]

Hawkins is also huge - he is the ‘bear in the square’

198/103

Paddy - 195cm & 100kg

[Ghost Like]

Height is interesting as Paddy was /is not much taller than Petracca & severely limited in positional moves.

Hawkins listed as 198cm
Paddy listed as 195cm
Petracca listed as 186cm

Paddy took 10 marks in one game and 9 marks in two other games and several 7 mark games - sounds to me like like a forward who could get on his bike and move around

I understand that Petracca is a gun and agree that we should have taken him - like many on here he was the one I wanted us to draft at the time

however

I am just getting a bit sick and tired of forumites whacking Paddy saying he was terrible when statistical evidence says otherwise for a young developing key position forward

The Hawkins comparisons are not made up crap - without his concussions issues Paddy might well be kicking 4 to 6 a game now

Alas we will never know just like when he was drafted we never knew he would suffer from concussion issues

Well said and a good argument.

The marks you talk about, did they end up in shots on goal. It is an era where backs peel off once forwards are out of range. I'm quite confident that in the possession game we now play, many players have multiple marks.

It's the ones inside 50 that count. I never saw anything to get excited about, his height being that of a modern midfielder. I think Flatracca is taller than 186 or certainly carries himself taller via ability, attitude & presence.