How do we Miss out on the Eight

[oboe]

I'm giving the Bulldogs over the last two games (though for them, might be problematical).
Collingwood should beat Gold Coast, and put them in th eight.
Then we have
St.Kilda 9 7 111.4%
Melbourne 8 8 106.2%
GWS 8 8 100.6%

If I have it right, Melbourne need to win by 40 points next week.
We need to lose by 40 points for next week.
That's what it comes down to.

Doggies are no certainty to beat Freo.

The odds are stacked in our favour, but let's beat GWS, and we've earned it.

Not worried if we're killed in the Elimination Final, but great learning experience for one of the youngest lists in the Comp.

GO SAINTS!!

[Ape_Man]

Will take some doing to miss, but we are experts at disappointment.

[bangaulegend]

Will take some doing to miss, but we are experts at disappointment.

If anyone can we can

[Ape_Man]

Will take some doing to miss, but we are experts at disappointment.

If anyone can we can

There are just some things we are the best at.

[carn_sainter]

In general, some excellent ways to miss the 8 include dropping big quarter time and half time leads to bottom 6 teams, dropping 8 point games to other teams on the fringe of the 8, dropping 8 point games against top 4 teams, losing all the close games you've played through poor execution, and dropping more than 10 percentage points in 1 half through poor effort

These are time tested ways to miss the 8

For me, from where we were 6 weeks ago, limping into the 8 because of multiple upsets in the last couple rounds is not a pass mark. Merely being just a little less crap than a few other crap teams isn't a great standard to meet

I'm hoping we win against gws because we play smart, tough footy

[bangaulegend]

Will take some doing to miss, but we are experts at disappointment.

If anyone can we can

There are just some things we are the best at.

Obviously you're a realist & understand our short comings but hey we are half a chance here

[oboe]

I base my optimism on facts, unlike Johnnearjames (or Parky Sainter or anybody else he calls himself). I'm an optimist, but a realist at the same time. I think we'll beat the Giants, but at worst, they might get over us by a goal or two.

We need to work out our forward line. The first full pre season for King might help.

An extra quality midfielder would be nice.

Geary to retire, and putting Carlisle back into the team (if mentally, and physically ready).

Get another quality midfielder (with Gresh and Hanners coming back).

Move Clark into the midfield, and either Roberton or Webster to HBF.

Get rid of Hind and Kent - put time into Bytel and Byrnes.

Move King to CHF, and move Membrey to FF.

Top 4 is a distinct possibility.

[chook23]

I'm giving the Bulldogs over the last two games (though for them, might be problematical).
Collingwood should beat Gold Coast, and put them in th eight.
Then we have
St.Kilda 9 7 111.4%
Melbourne 8 8 106.2%
GWS 8 8 100.6%

If I have it right, Melbourne need to win by 40 points next week.
We need to lose by 40 points for next week.
That's what it comes down to.

Doggies are no certainty to beat Freo.

The odds are stacked in our favour, but let's beat GWS, and we've earned it.

Not worried if we're killed in the Elimination Final, but great learning experience for one of the youngest lists in the Comp.

GO SAINTS!!

If we lost by 40 as you say Dees WOULD NOT have to win by 40

[bigguy]

We don't want to come 8th cos that would most likely mean a trip to WA to play the Eagles.

[Ape_Man]

Will take some doing to miss, but we are experts at disappointment.

If anyone can we can

There are just some things we are the best at.

Obviously you're a realist & understand our short comings but hey we are half a chance here

As a Saints supporter I am always an optimist.

As a Saints supporter I am also always a pessimist.

[oboe]

I'm giving the Bulldogs over the last two games (though for them, might be problematical).
Collingwood should beat Gold Coast, and put them in th eight.
Then we have
St.Kilda 9 7 111.4%
Melbourne 8 8 106.2%
GWS 8 8 100.6%

If I have it right, Melbourne need to win by 40 points next week.
We need to lose by 40 points for next week.
That's what it comes down to.

Doggies are no certainty to beat Freo.

The odds are stacked in our favour, but let's beat GWS, and we've earned it.

Not worried if we're killed in the Elimination Final, but great learning experience for one of the youngest lists in the Comp.

GO SAINTS!!

If we lost by 40 as you say Dees WOULD NOT have to win by 40

5.2 percent difference, when average score is just over 60 points. 80 points difference between us and Melbourne (not percentage). 40 points if they win and we lose - yes, they would to get it within a toss up.

[whiskers3614]

wrong only 50 odd points in total!

[Yorkeys]

How do we Miss out on the Eight:
Play Hind and Kent, kick poorly. Simples.

More relevant how to avoid meeting Eagles in Perth for a KO final. Win over GWS. Simples.

[DownAtTheJunction]

wrong only 50 odd points in total!

I suspect a loss by us of 3 goals and a win by Melbourne of 3 goals would bring us pretty close together. There’s not a great margin for error. Any loss would likely put us at serious risk.

[oboe]

Chook 23. You are right. I am wrong. 18 plus points difference would make it damn close.

I thought I was good at Math - Hell, that was a lie!!!

[shanegrambeau]

It's gonna be simlpe mathematics vs rational intuition.
We are so 'dodgy' ..and eh..f&&ck that..we are the saints!
Looks like we are gonna bomb out, but damn it, we are gonna bounce back.
We had some lucky wins (Rich, Adel, Pt Adel)
Now we can't even bank or guarantee a win against Nth. now.
But we ride the horse again...one more time?

Come on Saints.

[Ape_Man]

I haven't been around for a while, but I expect the answer is Longer. He will dominate with blocks you have to see to believe

I think he was the greatest ruckman of all time.

Was never sold on him but remember him being touted as the greatest of all time here by someone.

[Enrico_Misso]

Also don't forget Melbourne play on Sat a day after our GWS game.

So Melbourne will know exactly what winning margin they need.
Plus I would never trust that Druggie Scum to throw the game.

History can sometimes repeat cruelly.

I vaguely remember a promising team that long ago needed a 16 goal win in the final round to make the top 4.
The match was against a pre-druggie Essendon who rolled over and conceded 13 goals in the second half to lose by 108 points as the crowd cheered at the "Live Ladder".

[Teflon]

I base my optimism on facts, unlike Johnnearjames (or Parky Sainter or anybody else he calls himself). I'm an optimist, but a realist at the same time. I think we'll beat the Giants, but at worst, they might get over us by a goal or two.

We need to work out our forward line. The first full pre season for King might help.

An extra quality midfielder would be nice.

Geary to retire, and putting Carlisle back into the team (if mentally, and physically ready).

Get another quality midfielder (with Gresh and Hanners coming back).

Move Clark into the midfield, and either Roberton or Webster to HBF.

Get rid of Hind and Kent - put time into Bytel and Byrnes.

Move King to CHF, and move Membrey to FF.

Top 4 is a distinct possibility.

I like most of that except Membrey to FF
Play Battle leading out from FF with Marshall close to goal
Trade Membrey or move him to a pocket/flank
Membrey is a 3rd forward option not a full forward and jumps off both feet so is spoilt easy and often

[Superboot]

wrong only 50 odd points in total!

I suspect a loss by us of 3 goals and a win by Melbourne of 3 goals would bring us pretty close together. There’s not a great margin for error. Any loss would likely put us at serious risk.

It actually depends on more than the margin.

A 10-point loss, for example,in a high scoring game would do more damage to our percentage than the same loss margin in a low scoring game.

[saynta]

Will take some doing to miss, but we are experts at disappointment.

If anyone can we can

There are just some things we are the best at.

Obviously you're a realist & understand our short comings but hey we are half a chance here

As a Saints supporter I am always an optimist.

As a Saints supporter I am also always a pessimist.

I can really relate to that.

[Rocket]

If demons win by 6 goals and saints lose by 2 goals demons make the 8

[Yorkeys]

We can focus critically on some players, well I do, however this is a real credibility test for the coaching. Ratts is in a honeymoon period, deservedly, however if we are insipid and predictable against GWS there will be serious doubts raised about the ability of our coaching/selection set up. To be out coached by Leon Cameron should be unthinkable. Of course I can take losing but if it is in the manner of recent losses it will be so so disappointing. The team management group have painted themselves into a corner by not introducing more of the squad to game time, understandable on the grounds of continuity and teamwork, however it seems even us amateurs notice the continued use of players that play rare good games seems blinkered, and other teams know which of our players are the weak links and exploit it. Another reason for a red hot go is to give the captain a good farewell game. The effort next week might also be an indication of the respect held for JG. The implication of this thread is our lack of confidence in the team to deliver when it really matters and I also worry it is developing a failure mind set in our rising stars. We are good enough to win and should win and hope Ratts can orchestrate that.

[DownAtTheJunction]

wrong only 50 odd points in total!

I suspect a loss by us of 3 goals and a win by Melbourne of 3 goals would bring us pretty close together. There’s not a great margin for error. Any loss would likely put us at serious risk.

It actually depends on more than the margin.

A 10-point loss, for example,in a high scoring game would do more damage to our percentage than the same loss margin in a low scoring game.

Quite correct, Superboot. My estimate of a 'loss by us of 3 goals and a win by Melbourne of 3 goals' endeavours to give some perspective (in scoring) to the discussion.

[remboy]

Our only focus should be on winning. Do that and we’re in. If we lose we’ll have won two of our last seven and won’t deserve to be there. I’m comfortable with that scenario. If we turn up to play on Friday we’ll win.
Either way I still this year as a stepping stone to better things next year. A final or two would be great experience for the group but wont be the end of the world as we know it.