Melbourne watch

[Enrico_Misso]

7th spot locked in (or maybe 8th).

Pack of 3 (maybe 4 if Caaarlton win) on 32 chasing us on 36 with 2 spots available.

We now fall into the finals even when we lose next week.
Our higher percentage locks us into 7th.

All those narrow tactical losses have benefited our %.

[Teflon]

Ok ladder prediction assuming only difference is 5% between us in 8th (I’m not confident of winning at all)
We can lose to GWS by 16-18 points or less
Melbourne can beat Dons by 5 goals
We stay in 8 ?

[chook23]

Ok wash up what’s it mean mathematicians

Making some assumptions...
Bulldogs win tomorrow, Magpies win tomorrow.

Going into the final round

Coll 38
St.Kilda 36
Bulldogs 36

Melb 32
GWS 32


A win guarantees finals.
If we lose assume the bulldogs overtake with a win. That pushes us to 8th

That means that GWS or Melbourne (if they win) need to make up the 5%

If we lose it must be by small margin.

I am worried Dees beat Ess by a fair margin.....
Dees would need to make up about 4%

WE WIN .......IN

[Teflon]

7th spot locked in.

Pack of 3 (maybe 4 if Caaarlton win) on 32 chasing us on 36 with 2 spots available.

We now fall into the finals even when we lose next week.
Our higher percentage locks us into 7th.

All those narrow tactical losses have benefited our %.

Can’t see how 7th locked in

[bigcarl]

Pretty simple. We just need to win Friday.

[Bowey Boy]

NASA, can we confirm? Can we now miss?

[kosifantutti]

Go Dees!!!!

GWS cannot overtake us unless they beat us by 25 goals.

Absolutely correct, if goals are worth 2 points.

[MC Gusto]

Yep think we’re in subject to no blowout loss / blowout win for Melbourne

[perfectionist]

GWS cannot overtake us unless they beat us by 25 goals...

9 goals.

I think: if the Bulldogs lose to Hawthorn, we are pretty certain to make the final 8. But they are likely to beat Hawthorn and win face the Dockers over there the following week. If they win both they will make the 8. Then it will be a matter of us or Melbourne. A combined win to them V Essendon and loss for us to GWS of 9 goals will see them take our spot.

[The_Dud]

Good game of footy, both those teams looked a lot better than we have in a long time, will be tough next week.

Though the equation for us is still the same as it was before this game, we need to beat GWS.

If we lose but somehow still manage to fall into 8th spot, that means playing a full strength West Coast in Perth/Adelaide, with us coming off winning 1 of our last 5.

I would rather miss the 8 tbh, I think that kind of flogging could be the type that sets a young club back a few years, like it did to Melbourne when they went to Perth a few years ago.

[Saint 58]

It’s going to be an interesting Round 18
If other results don’t go our way, GWS would have to beat us by 9 goals (approx.) to take our spot.
I think that the only certainty is that Leon Cameron will be sacked at end of season

[chook23]

NASA, can we confirm? Can we now miss?

Houston we still have a problem.

[Enrico_Misso]

7th spot locked in.

Pack of 3 (maybe 4 if Caaarlton win) on 32 chasing us on 36 with 2 spots available.

We now fall into the finals even when we lose next week.
Our higher percentage locks us into 7th.

All those narrow tactical losses have benefited our %.

Can’t see how 7th locked in

I'm assuming the Dogs drop one of their last 2 games.
If they win both we fall to 8th.

Also assuming GWS doesn't thrash us as well as Melb having a big win.

[chook23]

It’s going to be an interesting Round 18
If other results don’t go our way, GWS would have to beat us by 9 goals (approx.) to take our spot.
I think that the only certainty is that Leon Cameron will be sacked at end of season

Didn't they just extend it a couple weeks back

[BadRossco]

Good result for us but a doggies loss could be a bit much to hope for as they are flying at the moment although the Hawks will not lie down which is probably more than you can say for the injectors giving the Dee's a fair chance of the percentage boost need. All could likely still come down to our last game a win making finals a certainty and a narrow loss still a slim chance. Unfortunately we are playing or worst football at the business end of the season

[skeptic]

To be clear...

If we lose, it is definitely not locked in.

GWS can’t overtake us, even with a win... but Melbourne and the Bulldogs can.

Bulldogs will overtake on points and Melbourne have an opportunity to overtake on %.

It’s 5%. Means we can barely afford to lose and they need to have a slight win. Really, if we lose, we need one of them to lose too

[BonoRocks]

Definitely not certain. We lose by about 12 melb win by about 20 they overtake us

Bulldogs also overtake us with 2 wins

[chook23]

Good game of footy, both those teams looked a lot better than we have in a long time, will be tough next week.

Though the equation for us is still the same as it was before this game, we need to beat GWS.

If we lose but somehow still manage to fall into 8th spot, that means playing a full strength West Coast in Perth/Adelaide, with us coming off winning 1 of our last 5.

I would rather miss the 8 tbh, I think that kind of flogging could be the type that sets a young club back a few years, like it did to Melbourne when they went to Perth a few years ago.

Yep...

[Teflon]

Dogs ought to win the last 2
Dees by my calc can’t beat bombers by more than 30
We can’t afford to lose by more than 15
We scrape into 8 to be slaughtered by Eagles a week later but hey.......made finals first time in 9 years ill pas the season off that .....even though we fell in....

[George27]

Go Dees!!!!

GWS cannot overtake us unless they beat us by 25 goals. That is not happening.

Doubt Melbourne would either unless they win by at least 50 plus points against Essendon next week.

This is based on us losing to GWS.

Not as rosy as that.

If GWS beat us by about 45 points or more they go above us.

If we lose, and Coll win one of their last 2 they go above us. If they win both, they go above us even if we win.

We are currently plus 110 on for and against, and Dees are plus 58, but having lower for and against. So if we lose by 20 and Dees win by 30 ( roughly ) they go above us. Any combination having that 50 point swing would have them above us.

If we lose and Dogs win both games they go above us ( that could happen also if we lose by say 50 and they have a big 50 point win and close loss).

So we could still finish 10 th.

[skeptic]

Just to add that extra layer of complexity...

It’s a 52pt differential between our % and Melbourne's.

So if we lose by 20, they need to win by 33

[Saintmatt]

It’s going to be an interesting Round 18
If other results don’t go our way, GWS would have to beat us by 9 goals (approx.) to take our spot.
I think that the only certainty is that Leon Cameron will be sacked at end of season

Didn't they just extend it a couple weeks back

Yes - 2 years. They actually did the deal before Covid then had to wait to see what the soft cap looked like before they could fill in the number on the contract

[kosifantutti]

Good game of footy, both those teams looked a lot better than we have in a long time, will be tough next week.

Though the equation for us is still the same as it was before this game, we need to beat GWS.

If we lose but somehow still manage to fall into 8th spot, that means playing a full strength West Coast in Perth/Adelaide, with us coming off winning 1 of our last 5.

I would rather miss the 8 tbh, I think that kind of flogging could be the type that sets a young club back a few years, like it did to Melbourne when they went to Perth a few years ago.

And the Bulldogs haven’t been the same team since they had to go to Perth and play the Eagles in the 2016 finals.

[skeptic]

For GWS it’s 102 points they’d need to beat us by to overtake us on points. Seems unlikely.

Looks to me like by Melbourne beating GWS, it’s essentially become St.K, WB, and Melbourne competing for 2 spots

[Teflon]

Go Dees!!!!

GWS cannot overtake us unless they beat us by 25 goals. That is not happening.

Doubt Melbourne would either unless they win by at least 50 plus points against Essendon next week.

This is based on us losing to GWS.

Not as rosy as that.

If GWS beat us by about 45 points or more they go above us.

If we lose, and Coll win one of their last 2 they go above us. If they win both, they go above us even if we win.

We are currently plus 110 on for and against, and Dees are plus 58, but having lower for and against. So if we lose by 20 and Dees win by 30 ( roughly ) they go above us. Any combination having that 50 point swing would have them above us.

If we lose and Dogs win both games they go above us ( that could happen also if we lose by say 50 and they have a big 50 point win and close loss).

So we could still finish 10 th.

If we lost to GWS by 9 goals then just don’t even bother turn the lights off
Pies against port Adelaide you’d have to say aren’t favourites
Dogs should beat their last 2
IF Bombers , after being smacked this week, front up for another sacking to Melb next week then they’re sacking the coach. Can’t see it I reckon Dees could drop that game
Shame we couldn’t just put it away when it mattered against eagles