So, it's the Saints, the Magpies, the Giants or the Bulldogs

[perfectionist]

We are in the box seat, but it's not unassailable.

[saintsRrising]

We are in the box seat, but it's not unassailable.

As we have the hardest run home we are not in the boxseat.

We do have the advantage that if we win one of our last two games that we play finals though.


Dogs likely to win their two.
Pies likely to roll GC

Even if Dees beat GWS, GWS will beat the Crows most likely and so we have to beat WCE or GWS. Currently both WCE and GWS would be favourites over us.

[bigcarl]

Yep, we have the double chance. It’s totally in our hands, which is nice.

[The_Dud]

Do it the right way, beat GWS and everyone else is irrelevant.

[shanegrambeau]

Sorry..I am not over this.
Ross Lyon said we are in on SEN this morning.

I thought we were out last night.

Are you saying that if we can lose both games and still likely make it?

[bigcarl]

Beat the Eagles and we can give the whole thing a shake

[BadRossco]

Agree with your reasoning saintsRrising problem is unless we can regain some form we are unlikely to win either of our last two games that said the team probably exceeded my expectations.

[SunnyErnest]

Sorry..I am not over this.
Ross Lyon said we are in on SEN this morning.

I thought we were out last night.

Are you saying that if we can lose both games and still likely make it?

If we lose both games then we would need Collingwood to lose both of their games for us to get in. And that would depend on Melbourne. If they won both of their games it would then be up to percentage.

[StPeter]

It's now like we have two early finals games with a double chance if we lose the first against West Coast.

if we lose both games it is likely we will be out of the eight.

Win both and we should finish fifth with a "home" final and not have to play in Perth or Sydney.

[bigred]

We will win this week.

I feel it in my bones.

[Teflon]

Just got to win 1 it’s that simple do that we are 8n
Do it this week and see how we are on injury front
I’d go hard this week stuff leaving it to last game this week is elimination
Have to beat eagirls this week

[skeptic]

Sorry..I am not over this.
Ross Lyon said we are in on SEN this morning.

I thought we were out last night.

Are you saying that if we can lose both games and still likely make it?

I’ll give this a go...

So it’s St.Kilda, Collingwood, GWS and WB for 3 spots

Collingwood are most like to win vs GC and cement their spot not worrying about % as they have the draw, whilst St.Kilda has the most points.

So tomorrow, GWS play Adelaide... assuming they win, that brings them equal to us on points but way down on %

So going into the final 2 roads it’s
St.Kilda - 36
GWS - 36
Coll - 34
WB - 32

Round 17 - Coll v GC, St.K v WCE, GWS v Melb, WB v Haw

So a St.Kilda win cements us in the final 8, likewise a WB loss makes it impossible for them to overtake use...

Reasonable predictions = Collingwood, WCE, GWS and WB

That means going into rd18
GWS - 40
Coll - 38
St.K - 36
W.B - 36

Games are - St.K v GWS, Coll v Port, WB v Freo


So what it ultimately boils down to is that if the Western Bulldogs win, then we need to win... or overall... we can’t let the WB overtake us on points. Currently they’re 4 points behind
A win for us cements it.
If they lose two and we lose two, we’re in.

The same can also be said for Collingwood though... if they lose both they’re games and we lose both, we stay they drop. A GC win would be a huge result for us, sending them to sudden death vs Port

GWS = assuming they win against Adelaide, they need to win 1 more to overtake us... depending on if we win. If we both lose, it could essentially come down to the winner of Saints v GWS. If they beat Melbourne and we lose to WCE... then it’s pbly the winner of our game + the Bulldogs for 2 spots... unless the dogs lose.

[Teflon]

Can’t see Pies dropping both
Dogs have a soft run
It’s us and GWS for mine
Just have to win 1 and if we can’t do that we don’t deserve a spot anyway
Such a shame this year well look back on a pathetic loss to Dees and some crap 1 goal losses and rue them
Oh so st Kilda ......

[bigred]

We are going to do over WCE.

Non issue

[samuraisaint]

I want us to go into the finals with a bit of form.

Eagles are beatable in Queensland and have a few key injuries.

If we can't beat them, then we need to saddle up and beat the Giants.

We will get a few (several) fresh players back on Thursday night and that will make a difference.

[SaintPav]

Sorry..I am not over this.
Ross Lyon said we are in on SEN this morning.

I thought we were out last night.

Are you saying that if we can lose both games and still likely make it?

Ross Lyon also said he forgot to play Luke Ball in a whole half of a Grand Final.

[SaintPav]

I'm giving the Crows a sneaky chance tomorrow night.

[saintsRrising]

Sorry..I am not over this.
Ross Lyon said we are in on SEN this morning.

I thought we were out last night.

Are you saying that if we can lose both games and still likely make it?

That would be extremely unlikely. If we lose both we are on 36 points.

GWS will beat Crows and if we lose they are on 40 to 44 (ie beat Dees too).points
Dogs are quite likely to beat Hawks and Freo = 40 points.
Pies less likely to beat PA, but very likely to beat Suns = 38 points

= St Kilda have the least points and miss out.

Also if Dees win both games and we lose both games the Dees % could go above us and they go above us on the ladder



Now Dogs could lose to Freo, but Dogs have been very good of late.

Pies could lose to Suns, as Pies have up and down of late., but you would think that they would win.

[saintsRrising]

The same can also be said for Collingwood though... if they lose both they’re games and we lose both, we stay they drop. A GC win would be a huge result for us, sending them to sudden death vs Port

Though if Dees win both games and we lose both games the Dees % easily could go above ours and they then go above us on the ladder.

It is theoretically possibly that Dogs and Dees play finals and St Kilda and Pies miss out.

[shanegrambeau]

Sorry..I am not over this.
Ross Lyon said we are in on SEN this morning.

I thought we were out last night.

Are you saying that if we can lose both games and still likely make it?

Ross Lyon also said he forgot to play Luke Ball in a whole half of a Grand Final.

Aha. ...
Yep, got the wrong Lyon on the line. Shout out Tony Grieg eating his nutragrain where ever he is ...in the universe.

Well then, we have have some serious Machinations in the machinations machine right here.
From a bookies point of view we are def underdogs in both our games.

WB favorites....altho...Freo are kinda dangerous.

GWS have class to burn and they should fancy themselves as a maverick to bust in through the back door and run amok in the finals.

Collingwood should get prefinals wobbles. Perhaps they are most vulnerable. Hope so...boy it’s gonna be interesting.

[stevie]

Still trying to see how the eagles can have a home final in week one if they earn one - the opposition team has to QT for 2 weeks so if they beat the eagles then how do they play the following week? Unless that team goes to WA a week before the game??

[Jacks Back]

We win, we're in
Why would you want to limp into the finals with 2 losses in a row or 4 out of 5 losses in a row?

[Darth Vader]

Sorry..I am not over this.
Ross Lyon said we are in on SEN this morning.

I thought we were out last night.

Are you saying that if we can lose both games and still likely make it?

I’ll give this a go...

So it’s St.Kilda, Collingwood, GWS and WB for 3 spots

Collingwood are most like to win vs GC and cement their spot not worrying about % as they have the draw, whilst St.Kilda has the most points.

So tomorrow, GWS play Adelaide... assuming they win, that brings them equal to us on points but way down on %

So going into the final 2 roads it’s
St.Kilda - 36
GWS - 36
Coll - 34
WB - 32

Round 17 - Coll v GC, St.K v WCE, GWS v Melb, WB v Haw

So a St.Kilda win cements us in the final 8, likewise a WB loss makes it impossible for them to overtake use...

Reasonable predictions = Collingwood, WCE, GWS and WB

That means going into rd18
GWS - 40
Coll - 38
St.K - 36
W.B - 36

Games are - St.K v GWS, Coll v Port, WB v Freo


So what it ultimately boils down to is that if the Western Bulldogs win, then we need to win... or overall... we can’t let the WB overtake us on points. Currently they’re 4 points behind
A win for us cements it.
If they lose two and we lose two, we’re in.

The same can also be said for Collingwood though... if they lose both they’re games and we lose both, we stay they drop. A GC win would be a huge result for us, sending them to sudden death vs Port

GWS = assuming they win against Adelaide, they need to win 1 more to overtake us... depending on if we win. If we both lose, it could essentially come down to the winner of Saints v GWS. If they beat Melbourne and we lose to WCE... then it’s pbly the winner of our game + the Bulldogs for 2 spots... unless the dogs lose.

So essentially if the favourites in all these games win, we miss out. If we win one, then none of the other results matter. I think.

[saynta]

Sorry..I am not over this.
Ross Lyon said we are in on SEN this morning.

I thought we were out last night.

Are you saying that if we can lose both games and still likely make it?

Ross Lyon also said he forgot to play Luke Ball in a whole half of a Grand Final.

He's a tosser.

[Saintmatt]

The same can also be said for Collingwood though... if they lose both they’re games and we lose both, we stay they drop. A GC win would be a huge result for us, sending them to sudden death vs Port

Though if Dees win both games and we lose both games the Dees % easily could go above ours and they then go above us on the ladder.

It is theoretically possibly that Dogs and Dees play finals and St Kilda and Pies miss out.

I take your point but the Dees % is currently nearly 8% below us and given they can barely kick 5 goals a game - that's a lot to make up.

Still - it remains a simple equation - we still need to win one more of the next two games.