Actual ladder versus Expected Scores ladder

[devil saint]

ACTUAL AFL LADDER

1. Port Adelaide (11-3, 128.4%)

2. Geelong (10-4, 138.7%)

3. Brisbane Lions (10-3, 117.4%)

4. Richmond (9-4-1, 121%)

5. West Coast (9-4, 115.3%)

6. Collingwood (8-5-1, 111.7%)

7. St Kilda (8-6, 113.3%)

8. Melbourne (7-6, 111.7%)

9. GWS (7-6, 101.8%)

10. Western Bulldogs (7-7, 100.1%)

11. Essendon (6-6-1, 88.9%)

12. Carlton (6-7, 97.1%)

13. Gold Coast (5-8-1, 101.8%)

14. Fremantle (5-8, 89.1%)

15. Hawthorn (4-9, 82.6%)

16. Sydney (4-9, 80.2%)

17. North Melbourne (3-11, 76.3%)

18. Adelaide (0-13, 54.9%)

CHAMPION DATA’S EXPECTED SCORES LADDER

1. Geelong (11-3, 139.5%)

2. Port Adelaide (11-3, 135.8%)

3. Brisbane Lions (10-3, 129.5%)

4. Richmond (10-4, 120.9%)

5. Collingwood (10-4, 116.8%)

6. St Kilda (10-4, 109.1%)

7. West Coast (7-6, 111.3%)

8. Western Bulldogs (7-7, 101.5%)

9. GWS (7-6, 94.2%)

10. Melbourne (6-7, 107.7%)

11. Carlton (6-7, 102.8%)

12. Gold Coast (5-9, 95%)

13. Fremantle (5-8, 86.9%)

14. Essendon (4-9, 87.9%)

15. Sydney (4-9, 83.3%)

16. Hawthorn (3-10, 82%)

17. North Melbourne (3-11, 71.1%)

18. Adelaide (2-11, 58.1%)


This data shows we are absolutely on the right track, playing good, sustainable footy. We should have won two more games had it not been for poor kicking.
The adjusted ladder is based on poor kicking by us (based on ten years of data measuring players' accuracy at every angle) and opposition scoring goals that statistically would normally be behinds e.g. Petracca.
According to David King on Fox Footy, the expected scores on Saturday night were 53-34. Would have been a nice 19 point win to us had we not kicked poorly and they not missed.

[SunnyErnest]

No offense Devil but Champion Data is a joke. It was invented by a very smart operator who sold it for a million dollars. I do not take any notice of their stats.
Just remember this, "Bad kicking is bad football".

[darylcowie]

Odd that our actual percentage is greater than our expected percentage, despite winning two less games!

[darylcowie]

Even more odd that the Crows were expected to win two of their matches!

[Teflon]

Waste of space champion data geez...

[shanegrambeau]

Waste of space champion data geez...

No offense Devil but Champion Data is a joke. It was invented by a very smart operator who sold it for a million dollars. I do not take any notice of their stats.
........

I do not know about your fields of work, but in mine - if you call it work - statistics have made an inexorable rise to dominance. People still have ideas...but instead of developing them in a nuanced way, as they did until the end of the 1970s, they start with a simple notion and pile on all this statistical apparatus. The reader is befuddled and intimidated and impressed and their brains reduced to sultanas. Next come the ‘brain’ people and their neurological jibberish, something akin to, “playing in the forward pocket releases hormone G in the prefrontal cortex - that’s the *executive function” (always replete with kiddies friendly pointers) .....

We know it is silly, but on and on it goes. We have created a kind of space race, in which we create a vacuum in our skulls.

MakE a million dollars!

What’s so stupid about that. And it is fun to create your own rubrics. ....and $ell them. Imagine all the ideas that don’t get sold?