MMM makes me angry. Footy players are strong nonsense.

[The OtherThommo]

The measures put in now need to be sustainable for up to 6 months, shutting everything down for 2 or 4 weeks isn’t going to achieve anything (Chief Medical Officer Prof Brendan Murphy covered all this this morning). The footy is a write off, that’s fine. But we can’t have schools close and businesses shut down for that amount of time, a balance needs to be found.

Shutting down everything for 2 or 4 weeks is all you can do without annihilating the economy. Any suggestion of longer is in reality, complete madness.

Shut everything for about 4 weeks, which will reduce the spread, and then deal with it. People at risk will need to self isolate, you know the elderly, sick and the obese (whatever age they may be).

But what will shutting down everything for 2-4 weeks do other than delay the peak by 2-4 weeks?

Create a set of sustainable rules and systems how that can go on for months. As you said, annihilating the economy will turn into a bigger issue than the virus.

2 points;

1. You seem to be suggesting you can divorce the virus from the economic impact.

2. Truth is, it was the OPEC+ meeting, a coupla weeks ago, that triggered the smashing of financial markets.

I won't bother trying to outline it all but, put simply, the Russians said 'Nyet' to oil productions cuts, and blew up energy and credit markets.

The Yank shale boom is dead, and > 10% of Yank junk corporate bonds are stuck in Yank shale companies. >10% of 'out of the money' bonds, in any credit market guarantees it blows up. Next? BAIL OUT! The Yank shale producers need an oil price of US$70/barrel to break even, and the Saudis need >US$80/barrel to get anywhere near the budget.

The Russians, who have the 2nd lowest production price of all (and actually charge their producers an $8/barrel Rent Resources Tax), have NO debt in US$'s, and sufficient reserves to handle the budget deficits coming from a US$25/barrel oil price for 6 -8 YEARS.

The Russians saw the "Perfect Storm" brewing, and pulled the trigger.

And the minute they did, it was GAME ON!!

They're not vulnerable, the entire Western world is - the virus is just a kicker.

And, the Russians closest strategic partner? The Chinamen.

40 years on from Ronnie Raygun and Thatcher, and the baton is changing hands.

Get used to it. They're just smarter, that's all.

I probably should have been a bit clearer, but I’m more worried about local economic issues rather than global (which is always a shitshow)

These shutdown are going to absolutely decimate whole industries. If your business/job has anything to do with events, arts, hospitality, travel, recreation etc. then you’re in big trouble. If you’re job is associated with any of those then you’re going to suffer. If the current restrictions carry on for months then the job losses will be in the hundreds of thousands, and everything that comes with that will be devastating.

A sustainable balanced solution needs to be found that both looks after the vulnerable and keeps local industries alive.

You're about 30 years late with your remedy suitable to the local economy.

How 'bout those inequality indices, eh? How 'bout stagnant wages, and wage theft, eh? How 'bout the most subsidised industries in Oz being the fossil fuel industries, when renewables, even when you incl storage, smash fossil fuel power generation, on cost, eh?

I could do this all friggin' night.

Amid the virus in Europe, the Spaniards have announced they're nationalising their hospital system, and the Italians have announced they're renationalising Alitalia - watch, that'll be just the start.

Italy's 4 Trillion Euros in debt, and they could thrive for 5 decades and not make a dent in that debt.

But, the hidden bomb is in derivatives - 'optimists' (a.k.a. con artists) reckon the leverage in derivatives is just over 1 QUADRILLION $US. The non-con artists account it about 2.5 QUADRILLION US$.

Since '08/'09, the Western central banks have 'printed' so much money, which has relentlessly pushed down interest rates, they have created the greatest speculative asset bubble the world has ever seen - and there have been lots before, going way, way back (pignorants think 'finance' was only created in the 'modern era' - tee up a read of or look at Dr Michael Hudson - a genius octogenarian, and clear headed as a bell - he literally wrote the book(s).l It began with 'Super Imperialism' in the early '70's, after which he was contracted by the Yanks to explain it to the White House, and was then invited to China to explain it to them - and they were so chipper, they made him Professor in China!).

Simple fact is, the US driven Western economic 'model', like all economic models - particularly those based on militaristic hegemony, is at its end.

Get used to it.

[Linton Lodger]

The measures put in now need to be sustainable for up to 6 months, shutting everything down for 2 or 4 weeks isn’t going to achieve anything (Chief Medical Officer Prof Brendan Murphy covered all this this morning). The footy is a write off, that’s fine. But we can’t have schools close and businesses shut down for that amount of time, a balance needs to be found.

Shutting down everything for 2 or 4 weeks is all you can do without annihilating the economy. Any suggestion of longer is in reality, complete madness.

Shut everything for about 4 weeks, which will reduce the spread, and then deal with it. People at risk will need to self isolate, you know the elderly, sick and the obese (whatever age they may be).

But what will shutting down everything for 2-4 weeks do other than delay the peak by 2-4 weeks?

Create a set of sustainable rules and systems how that can go on for months. As you said, annihilating the economy will turn into a bigger issue than the virus.

2 points;

1. You seem to be suggesting you can divorce the virus from the economic impact.

2. Truth is, it was the OPEC+ meeting, a coupla weeks ago, that triggered the smashing of financial markets.

I won't bother trying to outline it all but, put simply, the Russians said 'Nyet' to oil productions cuts, and blew up energy and credit markets.

The Yank shale boom is dead, and > 10% of Yank junk corporate bonds are stuck in Yank shale companies. >10% of 'out of the money' bonds, in any credit market guarantees it blows up. Next? BAIL OUT! The Yank shale producers need an oil price of US$70/barrel to break even, and the Saudis need >US$80/barrel to get anywhere near the budget.

The Russians, who have the 2nd lowest production price of all (and actually charge their producers an $8/barrel Rent Resources Tax), have NO debt in US$'s, and sufficient reserves to handle the budget deficits coming from a US$25/barrel oil price for 6 -8 YEARS.

The Russians saw the "Perfect Storm" brewing, and pulled the trigger.

And the minute they did, it was GAME ON!!

They're not vulnerable, the entire Western world is - the virus is just a kicker.

And, the Russians closest strategic partner? The Chinamen.

40 years on from Ronnie Raygun and Thatcher, and the baton is changing hands.

Get used to it. They're just smarter, that's all.

I probably should have been a bit clearer, but I’m more worried about local economic issues rather than global (which is always a shitshow)

These shutdown are going to absolutely decimate whole industries. If your business/job has anything to do with events, arts, hospitality, travel, recreation etc. then you’re in big trouble. If you’re job is associated with any of those then you’re going to suffer. If the current restrictions carry on for months then the job losses will be in the hundreds of thousands, and everything that comes with that will be devastating.

A sustainable balanced solution needs to be found that both looks after the vulnerable and keeps local industries alive.

You're about 30 years late with your remedy suitable to the local economy.

How 'bout those inequality indices, eh? How 'bout stagnant wages, and wage theft, eh? How 'bout the most subsidised industries in Oz being the fossil fuel industries, when renewables, even when you incl storage, smash fossil fuel power generation, on cost, eh?

I could do this all friggin' night.

Amid the virus in Europe, the Spaniards have announced they're nationalising their hospital system, and the Italians have announced they're renationalising Alitalia - watch, that'll be just the start.

Italy's 4 Trillion Euros in debt, and they could thrive for 5 decades and not make a dent in that debt.

But, the hidden bomb is in derivatives - 'optimists' (a.k.a. con artists) reckon the leverage in derivatives is just over 1 QUADRILLION $US. The non-con artists account it about 2.5 QUADRILLION US$.

Since '08/'09, the Western central banks have 'printed' so much money, which has relentlessly pushed down interest rates, they have created the greatest speculative asset bubble the world has ever seen - and there have been lots before, going way, way back (pignorants think 'finance' was only created in the 'modern era' - tee up a read of or look at Dr Michael Hudson - a genius octogenarian, and clear headed as a bell - he literally wrote the book(s).l It began with 'Super Imperialism' in the early '70's, after which he was contracted by the Yanks to explain it to the White House, and was then invited to China to explain it to them - and they were so chipper, they made him Professor in China!).

Simple fact is, the US driven Western economic 'model', like all economic models - particularly those based on militaristic hegemony, is at its end.

Get used to it.

"when renewables, even when you incl storage, smash fossil fuel power generation"

I gather you're including nuclear in renewables?

[The OtherThommo]

...These shutdowns are going to absolutely decimate whole industries. If your business/job has anything to do with events, arts, hospitality, travel, recreation etc. then you’re in big trouble. If you’re job is associated with any of those then you’re going to suffer. If the current restrictions carry on for months then the job losses will be in the hundreds of thousands, and everything that comes with that will be devastating.

A sustainable balanced solution needs to be found that both looks after the vulnerable and keeps local industries alive.

I agree, but what does a "sustainable solution" look like? It will mean "taxing" those who have and spending on those who don't - including business to business transfers. A Labor government would do it but it is anathema to the Libs. On the other hand, they have already embraced "stimulus 2008" after arguing for years that it was just wasted on "school halls" which are still around today and may serve as emergency isolation centres in rural areas.

Ms Ardern's first whack at it in Kiwiland was 4 times the amount (relative to GDP) as Schlo & Co's here.

Talk of what might be 'sustainable' in this current environment is a buck pass.

Ken Henry, to Wayne Swan, when the GFC blew up; "Go early, go households"

These peanuts in Canberra today, are still refusing to release people on the 'no cash card', so they can access cash to spend.

Newstart hasn't increased (in nominal terms, let alone relative terms) for how long? 15 years?

People bark about 'hoarders', but miss the fact the greatest economically damaging hoarders are those who have been the biggest beneficiaries of Western monetary policy since Ronnie - they hoard massive amounts of central bank largesse.

People hang on to the misbegotten notion that the Chinamen somehow stiffed the Western world out of the manufacturing capability.

As a 'famous man' said recently; 'I spent 20 years working in China, and it took me 15 before I woke up to the difference between China and the US. It wasn't until I went and spent time in Beijing, that I realised the difference. China has 50 engineers for every lawyer, and the US has 50 lawyers for every engineer.'

Xi Jinping is an engineer, as are many in the heirarchy of the CCP

Meanwhile, back here in cloud cuckoo land, it's still all so very, very Ronnie Raygun and Maggot Thatcher.

Both dead, but way too late.

[The OtherThommo]

P.S. The 'famous man' was a Yank who began his working life as an engineer in a Detroit car manufacturing plant. When that all dried up, he became a Wall St financial engineer.

Tertiary STEM courses in the US are dominated by students from o/s. One of the 4 STEM's (can't recall which) has over 85% of it's students from o/s, of which over half are from China.

Marketing, law, economic courses in the US are dominated by the locals - the inverse of the STEMS.

To follow on to the reference from a coupla days back, on Trump trying to 'buy' the first coronavirus vaccine, Big Pharma in the US spends more on stock buybacks than it does on R & D - and they borrow to do it.

The West's f***ed!

[Scollop]

Imagine if the snowball effect of a liquidity crisis in financial markets transfers into a liquidity crisis in the real world

There’ll be a certain percentage of mortgage holders who will be unemployed or underemployed in the next few months. And it’s not just PAYG employees. Many businesses borrow with the family home as security

Unless the banks provide a repayment holiday to their customers, perhaps the 20 year bull market in residential housing might also go into bear market territory. If that happens and if the banks start calling in some loans then the Australian economy is seriously f***ed

Maybe habits change throughout this period and that in itself creates further problems as far as the economy and consumerism is concerned. People might think; ‘who knows if there’s any pandemic on the horizon and if we should be better prepared and more frugal from now on.’ Why worry about buying a new car or renovating the house if it means that you’re going into more debt.

The derivatives bubble has been fuelled by debt as rightly pointed out by The Other Thommo. When loans are called in and a certain percentage of players go under and default it will mean that banks start looking to mums and dads consumers to pay the price for the sins of the speculators

[SaintPav]

If people think that this thing is just going to cause a recession they’re are kidding themselves. We’re talking about depression territory and a severe contraction of anywhere between 10-20%.

Like I said weeks ago, enjoy your helicopter money folks.

[SaintPav]

ScoMo is right because he doesn't do spin and he has all our best interest at heart.

We’ve also been informed on here that the Chief Medical Officer spoke this morning so you should believe him even if hypothetically say, you don't really believe in anything because he is a scientist.

So, don't pose any questions.

Dangerous.

Yes. Scomo doesn't do spin. Right. Got it.

Scott from marketing?

[SaintPav]

...These shutdowns are going to absolutely decimate whole industries. If your business/job has anything to do with events, arts, hospitality, travel, recreation etc. then you’re in big trouble. If you’re job is associated with any of those then you’re going to suffer. If the current restrictions carry on for months then the job losses will be in the hundreds of thousands, and everything that comes with that will be devastating.

A sustainable balanced solution needs to be found that both looks after the vulnerable and keeps local industries alive.

I agree, but what does a "sustainable solution" look like? It will mean "taxing" those who have and spending on those who don't - including business to business transfers. A Labor government would do it but it is anathema to the Libs. On the other hand, they have already embraced "stimulus 2008" after arguing for years that it was just wasted on "school halls" which are still around today and may serve as emergency isolation centres in rural areas.

Doesn't know, AKA NFI as wants the glossy colour policy document that treats all cohorts equally, with ”special” sections. ToT covered it well and there’s no sustainable solution to a problem that is an existential crisis.

This is an unprecedented crisis and emergency situation which requires bipartisan support for:

Prolonged deficit spending that boosts automatic stabilisers and manages demand ie helicopter money
$1,500 one-off payment to every household regardless of income (takes the politics out of it), then more targeted assistance later.
No UBI but it's coming at some stage.
Jobs guarantee
Let the currency fall further
RBA open lines of credit to banks (whatever it takes)
Banks agree to keep each other’s branches and atms liquid
Take politicians out of the decision-making process as much as possible

Expect massive layoffs. A lot of people in 50+ year age group, mostly men aren't working again.

Do whatever it takes now, then prey it works.

This last point is dedicated to the conspiracy buster in the other thread: September 11 changed everything forever but you haven't seen anything yet. Except Governments everywhere to use this as a cover story to push through their agendas and ramp up draconian laws and policies such as a complete ban on the use of cash and NIRP amongst other things.

[Saintmatt]

We all know China used pretty drastic lock-down measures, perhaps draconian, and achieved - cheating aside - some stability in terms of the spread.

Now how insulting is it to listen to Eddie Mc Quire (who was tested a week ago - long before most of us even knew where or how to get tested) and Luke Darcy spew forth their mirth and earnest longings for us not to hoard when we know isolation is the - regrettably - most responsible action one can take. Telling us that footy players are strong and healthy so its OK/...what bullocks!

Temperature checks! Bullocks big time BS! You can have the virus in you five days before your first temp spike.

If we isolate we need items and it is perfectly understandable that people without the means of Eddie and Luke, and the private insurance plans - are gonna be a bit on their toes and get nervy in teh supermarket lanes. It is understandable that many will over react.

They clearly have an agenda to keep the footy going on and for the season to start. They latch on to one stat quoted that suggested 'up to 30%' of medical staff will be homebound and be of no use to hospitals if forced to stay home and mind their kids because of school closures. Then they just run with it, leaving out the 'up to' bit and just go with thirty percent. They think they are being responsible spokesman to the working people, and they are good and mean well, but really, people lose all trust in them when they say...keep the kids at school, keep local footy playing. You can gather up to a 100 people. THey are not ignorant, both smart cookies with social smarts too. They know 5 out 10 people listening will say 'BS' quietly in their minds, but the others? But they have a larger agenda..and that is to prevent a panic ...a riot...looting etc., It totally distorts the import of the details they propose. In Amercia, the rules are already down to ten people. Australia went to 100 swiftly.

I think they shouldn't play this week. I think local footy shouldn't play either. Kids shouldn't go to school for a week either...if they really want to put a brake on it...however, the caveat is preventing panic and rioting. If this move would cause people to lose their s*** and panic then obviously, play the football, let more people get infected because no doubt they will. If community sports and schools keep rolling on as normal, more people will get and spread the virus. No amount of rationalization can change that.

Now..here is the catch...I believe they know footy will be cancelled but they don't wanna say it because it will encite more panic, so they keep this charade up.

We need essential services and deliveries and protocols around that. We don't need to encourage gatherings or Eddie saying the MCG is the best place for footy players to be.

If we do that, then perhaps we can blunt the attack and return to (relatively) normal far earlier than these six month forecasts.

How do we know China has achieved stability in the spread?

We don't but...
We do know the aggressiveness of their isolation tactics. We know they are in health crisis as well as international reputation crisis viz-a-viz management of said heath crisis as well as the stigma associated with being perceived of as being the origin of the virus. we also know they were the first place where the thing exploded and so responded pretty hard well before people here gave it a second thought. They would shake their heads I assume, listening to the way we talk about continuing community sports...all this being based on the current knowledge. (Obviously it can all change...and hopefully will, in a a good way, in a flash of good news)

The published stats are of course suggesting that they have made serious progress. Should we believe them? Of course not. Should we believe that most people carrying the virus have yet to be, and most likely never will be tested? yes..I would say.

We know one thing, the virus is extremely contagious, can live on a metal door handle for up to 48 hours.

They may well be lying more than the others..the others who are clearly showing steeper rises now. However, even the honest ones can't say much without more testing.

I don't believe that the virus didn't spread to Shanghai and Peking. No way, so I believe that they are cooking their figures.

100%. There's 11M ppl in Wuhan and Shanghai is only 830klm away ... with a truckload of ppl in between. On a transmission basis of 1 to 4 ... Schyeah right, off course it didn't spread to Shanghai

[The OtherThommo]

The measures put in now need to be sustainable for up to 6 months, shutting everything down for 2 or 4 weeks isn’t going to achieve anything (Chief Medical Officer Prof Brendan Murphy covered all this this morning). The footy is a write off, that’s fine. But we can’t have schools close and businesses shut down for that amount of time, a balance needs to be found.

Shutting down everything for 2 or 4 weeks is all you can do without annihilating the economy. Any suggestion of longer is in reality, complete madness.

Shut everything for about 4 weeks, which will reduce the spread, and then deal with it. People at risk will need to self isolate, you know the elderly, sick and the obese (whatever age they may be).

But what will shutting down everything for 2-4 weeks do other than delay the peak by 2-4 weeks?

Create a set of sustainable rules and systems how that can go on for months. As you said, annihilating the economy will turn into a bigger issue than the virus.

2 points;

1. You seem to be suggesting you can divorce the virus from the economic impact.

2. Truth is, it was the OPEC+ meeting, a coupla weeks ago, that triggered the smashing of financial markets.

I won't bother trying to outline it all but, put simply, the Russians said 'Nyet' to oil productions cuts, and blew up energy and credit markets.

The Yank shale boom is dead, and > 10% of Yank junk corporate bonds are stuck in Yank shale companies. >10% of 'out of the money' bonds, in any credit market guarantees it blows up. Next? BAIL OUT! The Yank shale producers need an oil price of US$70/barrel to break even, and the Saudis need >US$80/barrel to get anywhere near the budget.

The Russians, who have the 2nd lowest production price of all (and actually charge their producers an $8/barrel Rent Resources Tax), have NO debt in US$'s, and sufficient reserves to handle the budget deficits coming from a US$25/barrel oil price for 6 -8 YEARS.

The Russians saw the "Perfect Storm" brewing, and pulled the trigger.

And the minute they did, it was GAME ON!!

They're not vulnerable, the entire Western world is - the virus is just a kicker.

And, the Russians closest strategic partner? The Chinamen.

40 years on from Ronnie Raygun and Thatcher, and the baton is changing hands.

Get used to it. They're just smarter, that's all.

I probably should have been a bit clearer, but I’m more worried about local economic issues rather than global (which is always a shitshow)

These shutdown are going to absolutely decimate whole industries. If your business/job has anything to do with events, arts, hospitality, travel, recreation etc. then you’re in big trouble. If you’re job is associated with any of those then you’re going to suffer. If the current restrictions carry on for months then the job losses will be in the hundreds of thousands, and everything that comes with that will be devastating.

A sustainable balanced solution needs to be found that both looks after the vulnerable and keeps local industries alive.

You're about 30 years late with your remedy suitable to the local economy.

How 'bout those inequality indices, eh? How 'bout stagnant wages, and wage theft, eh? How 'bout the most subsidised industries in Oz being the fossil fuel industries, when renewables, even when you incl storage, smash fossil fuel power generation, on cost, eh?

I could do this all friggin' night.

Amid the virus in Europe, the Spaniards have announced they're nationalising their hospital system, and the Italians have announced they're renationalising Alitalia - watch, that'll be just the start.

Italy's 4 Trillion Euros in debt, and they could thrive for 5 decades and not make a dent in that debt.

But, the hidden bomb is in derivatives - 'optimists' (a.k.a. con artists) reckon the leverage in derivatives is just over 1 QUADRILLION $US. The non-con artists account it about 2.5 QUADRILLION US$.

Since '08/'09, the Western central banks have 'printed' so much money, which has relentlessly pushed down interest rates, they have created the greatest speculative asset bubble the world has ever seen - and there have been lots before, going way, way back (pignorants think 'finance' was only created in the 'modern era' - tee up a read of or look at Dr Michael Hudson - a genius octogenarian, and clear headed as a bell - he literally wrote the book(s).l It began with 'Super Imperialism' in the early '70's, after which he was contracted by the Yanks to explain it to the White House, and was then invited to China to explain it to them - and they were so chipper, they made him Professor in China!).

Simple fact is, the US driven Western economic 'model', like all economic models - particularly those based on militaristic hegemony, is at its end.

Get used to it.

"when renewables, even when you incl storage, smash fossil fuel power generation"

I gather you're including nuclear in renewables?

You gathered WRONG!!

It costs so much money to make nuclear energy safe (and that in itself is impossible), from shovel to waste disposal, it cannot, and never will, compete with renewables.

I'll give you an example. Elsewhere here, Pav and I had an exchange about the WHO, and I noted the WHO charter was constructed with almost total deference to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). The WHO are not 'permitted' to 'study, find and report' on anything to do with nuclear energy, without the IAEA's 'clearance'.

One of the greatest PR campaigns ever seen, is the IAEA's campaign to disregard the threats to life and environment coming from low level nuclear radiation.

This bloke has done an absolute treat - https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/03/06 ... red-ships/

"Cancer in US Navy Nuclear Powered Ships"

The reason I say he's done a treat, is because he went in to prove one thing, the US Navy dodged up some numbers to rebut what he was pursuing, and that made him pause, examine the weaknesses in the US Navy's rebuttal and, from there, he went on the prove something far far bigger.

He went in to prove the sailors on the 'craft' that went to lend aid In Fukushima were exposed to life threatening nuclear radiation, and came out proving sailors on nuclear submarines were being exposed to massive levels of life threatening nuclear radiation, from the 'NORMAL OPERATION' of the those submarines, without being exposed to fugitive radiation from reactor meltdowns, containment failures, and the like.

If you look beyond the brief CV of the author, at the end of that piece, you'll find he has been associated with this body;

https://independentwho.org/en/

They were set up precisely because the IAEA controls the WHO.

«The World Health Organisation (WHO) is failing in its duty to protect those populations who are victims of radioactive contamination.»

Apologies Stevie - I couldn't work out how to cull the quotes, without losing the essence.

[asiu]

i agree with the other punter

come more often mr tot.

always bucketloads of pointers in the appropriate direction
which makes for fun reading

[shanegrambeau]

Disappointed and shocked that they are gonna play on. Shocked because of the health consequences ..and Eddie and his mates in footy land and media land had their way and were able to leverage their rhetoric and disappointed because footy will suffer ..it won’t make footy look good.
I would have favored a one month delay and 22 games..

No new infections in the China hotspot so my point about draconian lock downs still stands...in so far as we can, A) believe the news, and b) that some wonderful discovery or a miracle stop to the spread in disease is not forthcoming

But my 14 year old brain ..which is the dominant hemisphere ..is also excited that we are playing. Go Saints. I think Sinclair should be picked but don’t know..

My word, some interesting comments in this thread...my understanding of economics exposed to my withering image in my withering brain again....derivatives ?.. the western monetary system? All I know is that the angels are looking after us...they live in the Fed in America, and as long as I accept my lot... they will feed me...and even though we’ve had electric cars since 1902 and viable solar power since the 1970s, the angels will guide us. Who else? Is there gonna be a new paradigm? Printing money? High debt ratio? Is this a headless machine following an algorithm? Guide us on robot, because We are St Kilda the mighty Saints!,,

Omnipotent! Is that the correct word!

Go Saints,

[shanegrambeau]

double

[Linton Lodger]

The measures put in now need to be sustainable for up to 6 months, shutting everything down for 2 or 4 weeks isn’t going to achieve anything (Chief Medical Officer Prof Brendan Murphy covered all this this morning). The footy is a write off, that’s fine. But we can’t have schools close and businesses shut down for that amount of time, a balance needs to be found.

Shutting down everything for 2 or 4 weeks is all you can do without annihilating the economy. Any suggestion of longer is in reality, complete madness.

Shut everything for about 4 weeks, which will reduce the spread, and then deal with it. People at risk will need to self isolate, you know the elderly, sick and the obese (whatever age they may be).

But what will shutting down everything for 2-4 weeks do other than delay the peak by 2-4 weeks?

Create a set of sustainable rules and systems how that can go on for months. As you said, annihilating the economy will turn into a bigger issue than the virus.

2 points;

1. You seem to be suggesting you can divorce the virus from the economic impact.

2. Truth is, it was the OPEC+ meeting, a coupla weeks ago, that triggered the smashing of financial markets.

I won't bother trying to outline it all but, put simply, the Russians said 'Nyet' to oil productions cuts, and blew up energy and credit markets.

The Yank shale boom is dead, and > 10% of Yank junk corporate bonds are stuck in Yank shale companies. >10% of 'out of the money' bonds, in any credit market guarantees it blows up. Next? BAIL OUT! The Yank shale producers need an oil price of US$70/barrel to break even, and the Saudis need >US$80/barrel to get anywhere near the budget.

The Russians, who have the 2nd lowest production price of all (and actually charge their producers an $8/barrel Rent Resources Tax), have NO debt in US$'s, and sufficient reserves to handle the budget deficits coming from a US$25/barrel oil price for 6 -8 YEARS.

The Russians saw the "Perfect Storm" brewing, and pulled the trigger.

And the minute they did, it was GAME ON!!

They're not vulnerable, the entire Western world is - the virus is just a kicker.

And, the Russians closest strategic partner? The Chinamen.

40 years on from Ronnie Raygun and Thatcher, and the baton is changing hands.

Get used to it. They're just smarter, that's all.

I probably should have been a bit clearer, but I’m more worried about local economic issues rather than global (which is always a shitshow)

These shutdown are going to absolutely decimate whole industries. If your business/job has anything to do with events, arts, hospitality, travel, recreation etc. then you’re in big trouble. If you’re job is associated with any of those then you’re going to suffer. If the current restrictions carry on for months then the job losses will be in the hundreds of thousands, and everything that comes with that will be devastating.

A sustainable balanced solution needs to be found that both looks after the vulnerable and keeps local industries alive.

You're about 30 years late with your remedy suitable to the local economy.

How 'bout those inequality indices, eh? How 'bout stagnant wages, and wage theft, eh? How 'bout the most subsidised industries in Oz being the fossil fuel industries, when renewables, even when you incl storage, smash fossil fuel power generation, on cost, eh?

I could do this all friggin' night.

Amid the virus in Europe, the Spaniards have announced they're nationalising their hospital system, and the Italians have announced they're renationalising Alitalia - watch, that'll be just the start.

Italy's 4 Trillion Euros in debt, and they could thrive for 5 decades and not make a dent in that debt.

But, the hidden bomb is in derivatives - 'optimists' (a.k.a. con artists) reckon the leverage in derivatives is just over 1 QUADRILLION $US. The non-con artists account it about 2.5 QUADRILLION US$.

Since '08/'09, the Western central banks have 'printed' so much money, which has relentlessly pushed down interest rates, they have created the greatest speculative asset bubble the world has ever seen - and there have been lots before, going way, way back (pignorants think 'finance' was only created in the 'modern era' - tee up a read of or look at Dr Michael Hudson - a genius octogenarian, and clear headed as a bell - he literally wrote the book(s).l It began with 'Super Imperialism' in the early '70's, after which he was contracted by the Yanks to explain it to the White House, and was then invited to China to explain it to them - and they were so chipper, they made him Professor in China!).

Simple fact is, the US driven Western economic 'model', like all economic models - particularly those based on militaristic hegemony, is at its end.

Get used to it.

"when renewables, even when you incl storage, smash fossil fuel power generation"

I gather you're including nuclear in renewables?

You gathered WRONG!!

It costs so much money to make nuclear energy safe (and that in itself is impossible), from shovel to waste disposal, it cannot, and never will, compete with renewables.

I'll give you an example. Elsewhere here, Pav and I had an exchange about the WHO, and I noted the WHO charter was constructed with almost total deference to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). The WHO are not 'permitted' to 'study, find and report' on anything to do with nuclear energy, without the IAEA's 'clearance'.

One of the greatest PR campaigns ever seen, is the IAEA's campaign to disregard the threats to life and environment coming from low level nuclear radiation.

This bloke has done an absolute treat - https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/03/06 ... red-ships/

"Cancer in US Navy Nuclear Powered Ships"

The reason I say he's done a treat, is because he went in to prove one thing, the US Navy dodged up some numbers to rebut what he was pursuing, and that made him pause, examine the weaknesses in the US Navy's rebuttal and, from there, he went on the prove something far far bigger.

He went in to prove the sailors on the 'craft' that went to lend aid In Fukushima were exposed to life threatening nuclear radiation, and came out proving sailors on nuclear submarines were being exposed to massive levels of life threatening nuclear radiation, from the 'NORMAL OPERATION' of the those submarines, without being exposed to fugitive radiation from reactor meltdowns, containment failures, and the like.

If you look beyond the brief CV of the author, at the end of that piece, you'll find he has been associated with this body;

https://independentwho.org/en/

They were set up precisely because the IAEA controls the WHO.

«The World Health Organisation (WHO) is failing in its duty to protect those populations who are victims of radioactive contamination.»

Apologies Stevie - I couldn't work out how to cull the quotes, without losing the essence.

Solar power and batteries cannot match fossil fuels in regards to power generation, or at least meet our energy needs. Is there another renewable that I haven't heard of? That's why I thought you may have been including nuclear. Not that I support nuclear, no way. Unfortunately, the woke climate movement are inevitably pushing us in the direction of nuclear.

Solar power is only the answer when we're able to build vast arrays of solar panels in orbit of the sun and work out a way to beam the energy to Earth. That sort of construction in space is decades away at least and will need to be done by armies of robots. Beaming the energy to a particular point (without wires) is currently science fiction, despite Tesla's unsuccessful experiments.

Batteries have limited capacities and life spans and are far from efficient. Electric cars can do anything an internal combustion car can do, the problem is the capacity of the batteries, their relatively limited life span and size. You can only make batteries so small and improve their efficiency so much. I think cars will eventually go down the hydrogen route. Aside from that I doubt that the technology that replaces fossil fuels has been thought of yet. Unless, those UFOs filmed and captured on radar by the US Navy in 2004 and I think 2015, are ours. In that case someone (probably the yanks) have taken a gigantic step in technology, because those craft are either been propelled by magnetism or indeed gravity.

[shanegrambeau]

Yes Linton, makes sense about solar and batteries.

If we insist on using a lump of metal and plastic weighing 1.5 tons (car) to move us weighing just 50-120kg , from A to B, it is just not gonna be feasible and sustainable from a long term environmentally friendly perspective. All the Tesla crowd probably know that too.

Bikes tho...electrically assisted bicycles are quite a revelation. Had them in Japan since the 80s.

[shanegrambeau]

Yes Linton, makes sense about solar and batteries.

If we insist on using a lump of metal and plastic weighing 1.5 tons (car) to move us weighing just 50-120kg , from A to B, it is just not gonna be feasible and sustainable from a long term environmentally friendly perspective. All the Tesla crowd probably know that too.

Bikes tho...electrically assisted bicycles are quite a revelation. Had them in Japan since the 80s.

[asiu]

the double posts

... are caused by refreshing , after ,
submitting a post

(i remember figuring out at some stage)

[The OtherThommo]

Solar power and batteries cannot match fossil fuels in regards to power generation, or at least meet our energy needs. Is there another renewable that I haven't heard of? That's why I thought you may have been including nuclear. Not that I support nuclear, no way. Unfortunately, the woke climate movement are inevitably pushing us in the direction of nuclear.

Solar power is only the answer when we're able to build vast arrays of solar panels in orbit of the sun and work out a way to beam the energy to Earth. That sort of construction in space is decades away at least and will need to be done by armies of robots. Beaming the energy to a particular point (without wires) is currently science fiction, despite Tesla's unsuccessful experiments.

Batteries have limited capacities and life spans and are far from efficient. Electric cars can do anything an internal combustion car can do, the problem is the capacity of the batteries, their relatively limited life span and size. You can only make batteries so small and improve their efficiency so much. I think cars will eventually go down the hydrogen route. Aside from that I doubt that the technology that replaces fossil fuels has been thought of yet. Unless, those UFOs filmed and captured on radar by the US Navy in 2004 and I think 2015, are ours. In that case someone (probably the yanks) have taken a gigantic step in technology, because those craft are either been propelled by magnetism or indeed gravity.

Oooh, look! The quote cull worked!

Roit, back to it.................almost entirely utter nonsense, Lodger.

I don't have long, right now, but I suggest you dig a bit deeper. Here's a suggestion on where to start - https://reneweconomy.com.au/

Giles Parkinson, who founded and still edits Reneweconomy, is a former Deputy Editor of the Financial Review, and columnist at The Australian. Terrific site, oodles of very smart people - with actual knowledge and skill, get published there.

Now, a fun fact, a fun fact relevant to your assertion that;

"Solar power and batteries cannot match fossil fuels in regards to power generation, or at least meet our energy needs."

Oil and gas extracted by fracking consumes more energy to extract, than is present in the 'liberated' oil and gas.

And, that's the case, without accounting for the externalities. One of the greatest accounting frauds of the last 100 odd years, is not to account for "externalities".

The biggest beneficiaries of that failure, by 'the length of the straight'?

The fossil fuel industry.

[The_Dud]

We get enough energy from the sun in 1 day to power the Earth for 1 year (or something to that effect).

Its plain stupidity not to try use it.

The objections to renewables is mostly a political one, not scientific.

Old oil/coal money runs deep.

[SaintPav]

The Coles brand in the centre circle is a bit tacky given what's happening.