Which teams will make way for the Saints rise?

[shanegrambeau]

It's a loaded question - it assumes that we will rise.

It doesn't ask "if the Saints are to rise..."

On that basis ...
The teams that we'll rise over (on the ladder) will have no choice in the matter - they will have to make way for us - that's the way it works.

Respectfully disagree, it's all relative. We can improve immensely but unless it is relative to the other teams we go no where...or down.

[n1ck]

Going by the trends, realistically it is the Bulldogs and Essendon, but looking at the ladder it looks like a bloody tough bunch to break up.

I actually think the Dogs will get better in 2020.GWS will improve again. Essendon are a strange one because they have a ton of talent. The Woosha situation makes them unpredictable. I feel the big drop could come from Geelong, but expecting them to fall out the 8 seems a big ask from minor premiers.

https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/pre ... ht-in-2020

[Life Long Saint]

It's a loaded question - it assumes that we will rise.

It doesn't ask "if the Saints are to rise..."

On that basis ...
The teams that we'll rise over (on the ladder) will have no choice in the matter - they will have to make way for us - that's the way it works.

Respectfully disagree, it's all relative. We can improve immensely but unless it is relative to the other teams we go no where...or down.

History says
If we win 12 games, then we are a chance to play finals.
If we win 14 games, then it doesn't matter. We will play finals.
If we win 15 games, then we're a strong chance to be top 4
If we win 16 games, then we're a strong chance to be top 2
If we win 17 games, then we're a strong chance to be top of the ladder

It doesn't matter who makes way for us. Our fate is in our own hands.

[samoht]

It's a loaded question - it assumes that we will rise.

It doesn't ask "if the Saints are to rise..."

On that basis ... the way the question is framed.
The teams that we'll rise over (on the ladder) will have no choice in the matter - they will have to make way for us - that's the way it works.

Respectfully disagree, it's all relative. We can improve immensely but unless it is relative to the other teams we go no where...or down.

I'm just saying - the way the question has been framed.

[goods]

dayne beam has been sacked. impact ?

[bigcarl]

Which teams will make way?

All of them.

2020, Year of the Rat.

[To the top]

Well, at this time of the year every side is talking up their prospects including talking up the ability of the players on their Lists.

So, until the real stuff starts, we will just have to wait and see.

I always subscribed to the view that, if you are the defending Premier, you needed to improve by 10% across resource and performance to continue to set the benchmark - so challenges were put and players recruited.

It is a brutal industry.

Which meant that all other Clubs needed to improve by upwards of 15%

Factor that into 22 players representing the Club on any given match day.

St Kilda probably needs to improve on 2019 by 40% - so in pure number terms 8/9 players driving that outcome.

We have recruited 5 Players (noting a Net position from the loss of first choice players Acres, Bruce and Steven (who was basically MIA so not as dramatic).

Then we have players returning from interrupted 2019's in Carlisle, Hannebery, Roberton, King and Bytel.

Given further enhanced performances from the likes of Marshall, Clark, Coffield et al the 40% required improvement would appear a possibility, making St Kilda (hopefully) competitive across the 2020 season.

Fingers crossed.

[shanegrambeau]

It's a loaded question - it assumes that we will rise.

It doesn't ask "if the Saints are to rise..."

On that basis ...
The teams that we'll rise over (on the ladder) will have no choice in the matter - they will have to make way for us - that's the way it works.

Respectfully disagree, it's all relative. We can improve immensely but unless it is relative to the other teams we go no where...or down.

History says
If we win 12 games, then we are a chance to play finals.
If we win 14 games, then it doesn't matter. We will play finals.
If we win 15 games, then we're a strong chance to be top 4
If we win 16 games, then we're a strong chance to be top 2
If we win 17 games, then we're a strong chance to be top of the ladder

It doesn't matter who makes way for us. Our fate is in our own hands.

Again. Respectfully disagree.
Our fate is not determined by ourselves alone. It is determined by the fate of all the other teams.
I am asking us to guess who it will be.

Another way of asking the same question is to start by assuming, say, we will finish 7th after the home and away. Which teams will finish below us. Now which of those teams finished above us last year?

All those wins, number of wins etc. come at another teams expense. Of course, it is completely pointless to hop a particular team becomes weakened...right? Or is it? When our opponents in the 1980s knew plugger would be out they knew their chances would be better.

But anyway. I am not hoping for demise...it is just an interesting to ask at this time of year, when everyone, including the press, is helping to create an illusion that everyone is going to rise as if we are all attached to a hot air balloon. Reality, we are bolted to a sliding seat on a see saw.

[freely]

Freo and Adelaide should drop off but Carlton may come thundering past.

[To the top]

In regard Carlton I am unaware of any improvement to their player resource

I am led to them getting over us at the MCG at the end of last season - narrowly and down to their marking forwards exploiting Brown particularly plus their plus one defender taking the marks he did, so marking everything we bombed in there

I have an opinion we will put a much better and better balanced side on the park over and above that side at the MCG

Accordingly I discount Carlton

[freely]

Home grown improvement can reap the benefit of a settled side.

[shanegrambeau]

In regard Carlton......them getting over us at the MCG.... down to their marking forwards exploiting Brown particularly....

How was Brown exploited? Curious.

[Life Long Saint]

It's a loaded question - it assumes that we will rise.

It doesn't ask "if the Saints are to rise..."

On that basis ...
The teams that we'll rise over (on the ladder) will have no choice in the matter - they will have to make way for us - that's the way it works.

Respectfully disagree, it's all relative. We can improve immensely but unless it is relative to the other teams we go no where...or down.

History says
If we win 12 games, then we are a chance to play finals.
If we win 14 games, then it doesn't matter. We will play finals.
If we win 15 games, then we're a strong chance to be top 4
If we win 16 games, then we're a strong chance to be top 2
If we win 17 games, then we're a strong chance to be top of the ladder

It doesn't matter who makes way for us. Our fate is in our own hands.

Again. Respectfully disagree.
Our fate is not determined by ourselves alone. It is determined by the fate of all the other teams.
I am asking us to guess who it will be.

Another way of asking the same question is to start by assuming, say, we will finish 7th after the home and away. Which teams will finish below us. Now which of those teams finished above us last year?

All those wins, number of wins etc. come at another teams expense. Of course, it is completely pointless to hop a particular team becomes weakened...right? Or is it? When our opponents in the 1980s knew plugger would be out they knew their chances would be better.

But anyway. I am not hoping for demise...it is just an interesting to ask at this time of year, when everyone, including the press, is helping to create an illusion that everyone is going to rise as if we are all attached to a hot air balloon. Reality, we are bolted to a sliding seat on a see saw.

You're asking the wrong question, then.

The real question is "How many games will we win?"
If it's 12, then we'll be hoping for someone to drop out for us...We won 12 games a few years ago and missed the finals on percentage.
If we win 14, then we'll probably finish 5th or 6th.

If you're asking which teams are most likely to fall from the 8 from 2019, then that has nothing to do with us and our rise.
But, it's most likely to be Essendon and Geelong - which is a big statement given they finished on top last season. I also don't buy the Bulldogs hype. They're a bottom four of the eight team at best. Even in 2016, they only finished 7th after the home and away season.
GWS, Richmond, West Coast are virtual certainties and are the three stand out flag contenders.
Brisbane and Collingwood should play finals barring a major setback.
Gold Coast, Fremantle, and North can't make the eight.
The rest are all contenders for the finals.

[To the top]

Carlton made space in their F50 for their athletic tall forwards to work into including to the F50 paint, then kicking long goals to finally win the game

Brown was trailing well behind, unable to keep up and put pressure

A definite tactic by Carlton and it worked

At the other end they had a big guy who was marking everything we bombed in - and possibly when Bruce’s papers were marked

[Secret Kiel]

Carlton made space in their F50 for their athletic tall forwards to work into including to the F50 paint, then kicking long goals to finally win the game

Brown was trailing well behind, unable to keep up and put pressure

A definite tactic by Carlton and it worked

At the other end they had a big guy who was marking everything we bombed in - and possibly when Bruce’s papers were marked

Was it a tactic by Carlton or lack of tactic by us, i.e. not enough pressure around the scorer especially the scorer being invited to take the low percentage long shot.

We could have had a greater "expected score" stat but not taken advantage of it. To be fair BR was only in charge for a short time so the concept of the"expected score" stat might not have been fully bedded down by then although it's possible BR introduced it while he was an assistant and obviously with the assistance from DOS.

I'd expect the playing group have heard lots about the stat over this summer.

[shanegrambeau]

It's a loaded question - it assumes that we will rise.

It doesn't ask "if the Saints are to rise..."

On that basis ...
The teams that we'll rise over (on the ladder) will have no choice in the matter - they will have to make way for us - that's the way it works.

Respectfully disagree, it's all relative. We can improve immensely but unless it is relative to the other teams we go no where...or down.

History says
If we win 12 games, then we are a chance to play finals.
If we win 14 games, then it doesn't matter. We will play finals.
If we win 15 games, then we're a strong chance to be top 4
If we win 16 games, then we're a strong chance to be top 2
If we win 17 games, then we're a strong chance to be top of the ladder

It doesn't matter who makes way for us. Our fate is in our own hands.

Again. Respectfully disagree.
Our fate is not determined by ourselves alone. It is determined by the fate of all the other teams.
I am asking us to guess who it will be.

Another way of asking the same question is to start by assuming, say, we will finish 7th after the home and away. Which teams will finish below us. Now which of those teams finished above us last year?

All those wins, number of wins etc. come at another teams expense. Of course, it is completely pointless to hop a particular team becomes weakened...right? Or is it? When our opponents in the 1980s knew plugger would be out they knew their chances would be better.

But anyway. I am not hoping for demise...it is just an interesting to ask at this time of year, when everyone, including the press, is helping to create an illusion that everyone is going to rise as if we are all attached to a hot air balloon. Reality, we are bolted to a sliding seat on a see saw.

You're asking the wrong question, then.

The real question is "How many games will we win?"

If you're asking which teams are most likely to fall from the 8 from 2019, then that has nothing to do with us and our rise.

I don’t think I’m making any headway here. Other teams have everything to do with our rise. We don’t just win twelve games. Some other team loses those games.

Other teams have everything to do with our rise.

Sorry to be pedantic, but I am trying to make a point...and I’ll move on...

Imagine..

If the other teams’ buses all get a flat tire on their way to play us, forcing them to walk, get restless, start arguing, even fighting, and five of their best players break each other’s knees, it will have a profound effect on our rise.

So, in that vein, the question asks for which of the other teams have vulnerabilities. Starting from the tyre checker on the team bus, all the way to list Managment, team strategies, false confidence, etc.

[samuraisaint]

Sydney, Adelaide and Port. Has to be them.