Late pick 18 year olds.

[Gershwin]

Is there much point in picking 18 year olds with our late picks this year? The exception for me is Biggy.

According to my research these are the 18 year olds we have taken with picks after 50 or in rookie draft in the last 9 years:

2010
59 Tom Ledger
75 Arryn Siposs
Rookie Tom Curren
Rookie Jackson Ferguson

2011
60 Jay Lever
Rookie Jordan Staley
Rookie Darren Minchington

2012
75 Lewis Pierce

2013
Rookie Eli Templeton

2014
Rookie Brenton Payne

2015
Rookie Nick O'Kearney
Rookie Nick Coughlan

2016
56 Ed Phillips

2017
Rookie Doulton Langlands

2018
Nil

In my opinion we have had better luck with mature recruits after pick 50. The 18 year olds that go on to be 100 game players usually go before 50.

[silverhalo]

Good analysis.....have to agree with you based on that

[Secret Kiel]

It just shows how stretched the talent pool is in an 18 team comp compromised with the franchise teams getting the handouts they do. I suppose it's one argument for getting rid of a few Melbourne clubs.

It would be interesting to see a table of how many 18-19yo players taken after 50 that went on and played 100 or more games.

[BackFromUSA]

Josh Battle?
Jack Steven?

Both taken late from memory.

[Gershwin]

Josh Battle?
Jack Steven?

Both taken late from memory.

Steven 42
Battle 39

[evertonfc]

Always happy to have a go at state league talent, especially when they are big bodies. So many don't develop properly or realise if they can play until they are 21-22.

[skeptic]

I liked Tom Ledger... IMO he actually played pretty decent games in the seniors when given the opportunity and worked through limited game time with that idiotic sub concept.
Really didn’t get enough opportunity however despite being a good VFL player.

Siposs had promise early but we really butchered his development. Started him as a forward, then tried to make him a BJ replacement at halfback before we settled on the great plan of playing him as a forward in Saints games and a HBF at Sandy.

Minchington looked to me as a very capable and promising player that was under utilised in his early years... then far too often played as a forward at the Saints despite doing his better work as a mid at Sandy. Unfortunately injuries interrupted his final few seasons.

Pierce played two good games of AFL football and something like 10 over 5 years... never really saw what he could become

Phillips and Langdon look promising.


From that, the take home message is that there is talent available late in the draft but the approach of letting players languish at Sandy instead of gradually getting 15-30 games into them here or there over 5 seasons is an inept one

[OldGeorgeYoung]

Thanks Gershy, I really appreciate & rate this type of homework, especially this time of year.

I've always wondered why (across all teams) when 'panning for gold' from the draft, more rookies seem to become quality players compared to very late draft picks.

Your stats help to support this. If so, why to most clubs seem to wait & possibly miss a potentially good 21+yo (by having a lower rookie pick) instead of using a late draft pick?

Is their decision somehow influenced by players minimum wages linked to their age in the national draft vs rookie draft?

[Joffa Burns]

I liked Tom Ledger... IMO he actually played pretty decent games in the seniors when given the opportunity and worked through limited game time with that idiotic sub concept.
Really didn’t get enough opportunity however despite being a good VFL player.

Siposs had promise early but we really butchered his development. Started him as a forward, then tried to make him a BJ replacement at halfback before we settled on the great plan of playing him as a forward in Saints games and a HBF at Sandy.

Minchington looked to me as a very capable and promising player that was under utilised in his early years... then far too often played as a forward at the Saints despite doing his better work as a mid at Sandy. Unfortunately injuries interrupted his final few seasons.

Pierce played two good games of AFL football and something like 10 over 5 years... never really saw what he could become

Phillips and Langdon look promising.


From that, the take home message is that there is talent available late in the draft but the approach of letting players languish at Sandy instead of gradually getting 15-30 games into them here or there over 5 seasons is an inept one

I thought the same thing RE Ledger.

I was talking to Scott Watters & he told me Tom Ledger should have been a really good player but was held back by attitude, being lazy and a crap trainer.

Make of it what you will.

[skeptic]

I liked Tom Ledger... IMO he actually played pretty decent games in the seniors when given the opportunity and worked through limited game time with that idiotic sub concept.
Really didn’t get enough opportunity however despite being a good VFL player.

Siposs had promise early but we really butchered his development. Started him as a forward, then tried to make him a BJ replacement at halfback before we settled on the great plan of playing him as a forward in Saints games and a HBF at Sandy.

Minchington looked to me as a very capable and promising player that was under utilised in his early years... then far too often played as a forward at the Saints despite doing his better work as a mid at Sandy. Unfortunately injuries interrupted his final few seasons.

Pierce played two good games of AFL football and something like 10 over 5 years... never really saw what he could become

Phillips and Langdon look promising.


From that, the take home message is that there is talent available late in the draft but the approach of letting players languish at Sandy instead of gradually getting 15-30 games into them here or there over 5 seasons is an inept one

I thought the same thing RE Ledger.

I was talking to Scott Watters & he told me Tom Ledger should have been a really good player but was held back by attitude, being lazy and a crap trainer.

Make of it what you will.

Cheers JB,

Boy do I just hate that line though... seems like such a recurring feature..
Player shows promise, player languishes in the VFL for years demonstrating good form but won’t play due to attitude/training attitude

Really feel like the difference btw clubs that are doing well and those that languish is the ability to work through that particular challenge... an ability to motivate and work through challenges with these young kids

[Viscount Jeremiah]

I liked Tom Ledger... IMO he actually played pretty decent games in the seniors when given the opportunity and worked through limited game time with that idiotic sub concept.
Really didn’t get enough opportunity however despite being a good VFL player.

Siposs had promise early but we really butchered his development. Started him as a forward, then tried to make him a BJ replacement at halfback before we settled on the great plan of playing him as a forward in Saints games and a HBF at Sandy.

Minchington looked to me as a very capable and promising player that was under utilised in his early years... then far too often played as a forward at the Saints despite doing his better work as a mid at Sandy. Unfortunately injuries interrupted his final few seasons.

Pierce played two good games of AFL football and something like 10 over 5 years... never really saw what he could become

Phillips and Langdon look promising.



From that, the take home message is that there is talent available late in the draft but the approach of letting players languish at Sandy instead of gradually getting 15-30 games into them here or there over 5 seasons is an inept one

Different players but Tom Ledger was the Brandon White of his time..

No one could understand his non-selection

[skeptic]

I liked Tom Ledger... IMO he actually played pretty decent games in the seniors when given the opportunity and worked through limited game time with that idiotic sub concept.
Really didn’t get enough opportunity however despite being a good VFL player.

Siposs had promise early but we really butchered his development. Started him as a forward, then tried to make him a BJ replacement at halfback before we settled on the great plan of playing him as a forward in Saints games and a HBF at Sandy.

Minchington looked to me as a very capable and promising player that was under utilised in his early years... then far too often played as a forward at the Saints despite doing his better work as a mid at Sandy. Unfortunately injuries interrupted his final few seasons.

Pierce played two good games of AFL football and something like 10 over 5 years... never really saw what he could become

Phillips and Langdon look promising.



From that, the take home message is that there is talent available late in the draft but the approach of letting players languish at Sandy instead of gradually getting 15-30 games into them here or there over 5 seasons is an inept one

Different players but Tom Ledger was the Brandon White of his time..

No one could understand his non-selection

It’s why I’ve always struggled with the notion that a reason for our lack of success from 2011 onwards is/was our abysmal recruiting starting from even before then.

People really get behind the idea that our recruiting was so bad that we had the unbelievable strike rate of almost constantly choosing the wrong/worst player available at that time. Despite the fact that many players we picked were taken more or less where they were anticipated to go.

And whilst there were some bad underperformers....
There were also a lot of players that came into the team... started incredibly well but barely played. It’s been a constant feature of our development over time.

Of course it’s a very hard argument to make that a player that didn’t make could have been better than we thought... and obviously it’s an opinion... but the style of development has been there for a long time

[Brunswicksainter]

I liked Tom Ledger... IMO he actually played pretty decent games in the seniors when given the opportunity and worked through limited game time with that idiotic sub concept.
Really didn’t get enough opportunity however despite being a good VFL player.

Siposs had promise early but we really butchered his development. Started him as a forward, then tried to make him a BJ replacement at halfback before we settled on the great plan of playing him as a forward in Saints games and a HBF at Sandy.

Minchington looked to me as a very capable and promising player that was under utilised in his early years... then far too often played as a forward at the Saints despite doing his better work as a mid at Sandy. Unfortunately injuries interrupted his final few seasons.

Pierce played two good games of AFL football and something like 10 over 5 years... never really saw what he could become

Phillips and Langdon look promising.



From that, the take home message is that there is talent available late in the draft but the approach of letting players languish at Sandy instead of gradually getting 15-30 games into them here or there over 5 seasons is an inept one

Different players but Tom Ledger was the Brandon White of his time..

No one could understand his non-selection

IMO, White was poor in just about every game he played at AFL and VFL. Ledger at least showed some promise.

[skeptic]

I liked Tom Ledger... IMO he actually played pretty decent games in the seniors when given the opportunity and worked through limited game time with that idiotic sub concept.
Really didn’t get enough opportunity however despite being a good VFL player.

Siposs had promise early but we really butchered his development. Started him as a forward, then tried to make him a BJ replacement at halfback before we settled on the great plan of playing him as a forward in Saints games and a HBF at Sandy.

Minchington looked to me as a very capable and promising player that was under utilised in his early years... then far too often played as a forward at the Saints despite doing his better work as a mid at Sandy. Unfortunately injuries interrupted his final few seasons.

Pierce played two good games of AFL football and something like 10 over 5 years... never really saw what he could become

Phillips and Langdon look promising.



From that, the take home message is that there is talent available late in the draft but the approach of letting players languish at Sandy instead of gradually getting 15-30 games into them here or there over 5 seasons is an inept one

Different players but Tom Ledger was the Brandon White of his time..

No one could understand his non-selection

IMO, White was poor in just about every game he played at AFL and VFL. Ledger at least showed some promise.

Yikes... poor in almost every VFL game too!!!

You know he won their B&F right?

[Scollop]

Is there much point in picking 18 year olds with our late picks this year?

Yes. We always need to have a focus on youth and finding talent late in the draft or with rookies even.

It's simply a skill that must be part of the football department with our scouts and recruiters

It also means that your football club places a high emphasis on skills/improvement/development

[Zed]

Different players but Tom Ledger was the Brandon White of his time..

No one could understand his non-selection

Tom Ledger was the Daniel McKenzie of his time.
Got the ball , ran fast but with no concept of what to do with it, then turned if over - regularly.

We had a stronger list in those days which is why he didnt get the same opportunities that McKenzie has.
Sounds like McKenzie is a strong trainer which could also be why he gets a few extra opportunities.