Post bye predictions - Season 2019

[axcellence]

I think the second half is looking positive.

6 games win are a minimum expectation for the second half. If the team was at full strength AND LUCKY, even 9 games are possible (but improbable given the coach).

[Ghost Like]

I like your positiveness excel but I'm thinking 4 more may see us out.

I do believe 2 or 3 kids will be given an extended run in the seniors and have us wondering why that didn't happen earlier.

I also predict some players will play their best, most consistent footy for the year in August.

[saintadamski]

'Positive' is the understatement of the year IMO

I'm going to use the word 'delusional'

[axcellence]

'Positive' is the understatement of the year IMO

I'm going to use the word 'delusional'

I had estimated 8-10 games win for the season when the fixture came out... people were calling for a 4-5 win season then. 5 wins in the first half now with the easier half of the fixture coming up. I had 2-9 for the first half, so 5-6 is a good position to be in.

So much depends on the injuries...

My estimate includes Steven, Hanneberry and Carlisle all coming in over the next few weeks.

[bigred]

I reckon we are going to fail pretty hard.

Will get players back, however struggle for consistent form.

New coach will help.

[mbogo]

It is hard to imagine our players putting in the commitment and energy displayed by two other sides tonight, particularly under our current lacklustre leadership on and off the park!

[guitars4]

I think the second half is looking positive.

6 games win are a minimum expectation for the second half. If the team was at full strength AND LUCKY, even 9 games are possible (but improbable given the coach).

I like your positive outlook & I wish I could see why you think we can win 6 or even 9 games don't get me wrong I hope your on the money but unfortunately I think 4 max but in reality probably 2 IMO

[WellardSaint]

in order to win, we need to kick more than 9 goals.
Can't see that happening, we'll just keep bombing it into F50,
and get one goal for every 18 entries.
Lots of behinds.
How the hell can we win more than 4?
Sydney is not doing so well, but we'll roll over in front of them like an obedient puppy.

[guitars4]

I like your positiveness excel but I'm thinking 4 more may see us out.

I do believe 2 or 3 kids will be given an extended run in the seniors and have us wondering why that didn't happen earlier.

I also predict some players will play their best, most consistent footy for the year in August.

Sorry mate I didn't read your post & posted pretty much the same thing

[sainter104]

I think we finish 5th and eliminate Dockers in week 1 of finals

[Yorkeys]

Current betting re Saints on AFL site: Premiers, 500/1; top 4, 50/1, top 8, 10/1. Its looking like another bottom 4 finish - bottom 6 at best, according to the betting agencies. That's an objective, sort of scientific assessment, rather than our wishful thinking. Well there is a draft pick that comes with low finishes and a new coach.

Over this bye period the Saints executive group will have discussions, even if couched in terms of contingency planning, about getting injured players fit now by operations or rest; playing group weaknesses, and a new coach. Giving chances to fringe or yet to debut players to fully assess potential et al. New captain, although that might we a quick conversation.

If a new coach comes that usually means he/she brings a new team and I would hope we wouldn't pull the rug on Ratts and Lade after one year. Possibly one of those will be our new coach. The transition is coming post bye, each game will bring it closer. Perhaps the band-aid should be torn off quickly, depending on financial penalties. Carlton and North's responses to coach changes would not have boosted the worn old argument for stability regardless of results. We might get another 4 wins, possibly a couple more if Max King comes on nicely and Richo goes.

[Special]

Will our current board have the balls to remove Richo when it’s obvious we won’t make the eight, or will they only pull the trigger when it’s mathematically impossible??

The reason to wait for the latter could be to invoke the trigger clause and save money.

My concern is that point may be with only a couple of rounds left, and we may be well behind the eight ball re Norf and Carlton and their positions.

Realistically, inside the industry you’d hope they’d all assume Richo is dead man walking and the planning/positioning is already in progress

[older saint]

Here is the draw:
GC ( Townsville)
Bris ( H)
Rich (H)
North ( Tas)
Geel ( A)
WB(H)
Melb (H)
Adel (A)
Freo (H)
Carl ( MCG)
Syd (A)

I would think Wins (3) Losses (3) which leaves 5 games 50/50
Split those 3-2
Will give us 11 wins and finish about 10th
Go better and could fall in or just miss the 8 by %

Overall 11 wins is much better than i expected at the start of the year. To be fair you would then find it hard not to retain Richardson for the final year on the contract.

My biggest concern if that happens is 2 fold:
- There is no selection integrity within the side , hasn't been for 2 seasons now, and this will come back to hurt long term
- from above a number of players with under 20 games who have earned the right for an opportunity but haven't been given one due to point above will leave and potentially become very good players elsewhere and you couldn't blame them

Put yourself in the shoes of say a Clark, White, Rice, Coffield week in week out you are performing at the level you are selected to play , albeit a lower level but can only beat your opponent, while those above you are inconsistent and you feel that given the same chances you will be able to do better. Why would you stay under the same system as you clearly are not rated by them .

[Life Long Saint]

Here is the draw:
GC ( Townsville)
Bris ( H)
Rich (H)
North ( Tas)
Geel ( A)
WB(H)
Melb (H)
Adel (A)
Freo (H)
Carl ( MCG)
Syd (A)

Three wins?
I'm struggling to see three wins.

I can see losses to:
Brisbane...Forget yesterday, they are a good side.
Richmond...Way too good for us.
North...Would have been a gimme for us until they changed coach.
Geelong...This will be ugly.
Adealaide...As will this.
Fremantle...Hogan always kills us!
Sydney...So does Buddy.

The others are 50/50 at best.
Gold Coast...If we lose that, it's season over...We only beat them by a point here. Our travel record is awful.
Bulldogs...They are hit and miss with their form.
Melbourne...They are playing better.
Carlton...Will depend on how they're playing with the new coach.

We have no easy wins in that lot.

[Ghost Like]

Put yourself in the shoes of say a Clark, White, Rice, Coffield week in week out you are performing at the level you are selected to play , albeit a lower level but can only beat your opponent, while those above you are inconsistent and you feel that given the same chances you will be able to do better. Why would you stay under the same system as you clearly are not rated by them .

Add to that, those players playing in the VFL playing in different positions they have trained in or asked to play in a different position when given an opportunity in the seniors. For example, Coffield spent the summer training with the midfield.
Clark playing on the ball in the VFL, then a pseudo Acres role of being a stop gap in the seniors.
Rice being played forward in the VFL. Hard to see him playing forward in the seniors.
White killing it on the half back line, a position that has opened up a couple of times this season but yet to be chosen.

[older saint]

Here is the draw:
GC ( Townsville)
Bris ( H)
Rich (H)
North ( Tas)
Geel ( A)
WB(H)
Melb (H)
Adel (A)
Freo (H)
Carl ( MCG)
Syd (A)

Three wins?
I'm struggling to see three wins.

I can see losses to:
Brisbane...Forget yesterday, they are a good side.
Richmond...Way too good for us.
North...Would have been a gimme for us until they changed coach.
Geelong...This will be ugly.
Adealaide...As will this.
Fremantle...Hogan always kills us!
Sydney...So does Buddy.

The others are 50/50 at best.
Gold Coast...If we lose that, it's season over...We only beat them by a point here. Our travel record is awful.
Bulldogs...They are hit and miss with their form.
Melbourne...They are playing better.
Carlton...Will depend on how they're playing with the new coach.

We have no easy wins in that lot.

I'll go with GC. Watched them yesterday and they are hanging out for a rest. we are terrible traveling but they are terrible full stop at the moment,
Carlton - honeymoon period over round 22 already will have Daisy working out post season Mad Monday

Melb play Marvel poorly
North - see Carlton and ad tank mode to it as still hold their first round pick - ( love carlton traded theirs)
WB - depends which WB turn up.
Freo - see WB

On top of that Richmond do not play Marvel well at all
Bris - again depends which on e turns up , 1st 1/4 and a bit yesterday or second half
Syd- round 23 Buddy in cotton wool to give him some hop of playing out the 10 year deal, and several other already having operations

Geelong- could be record breaking
Adel- Forfeit and save money on airfares and accommodation

[prwilkinson]

Hopefully get a wee bit of luck, get some players back, and finish the year with good momentum for 2020 even if we don’t make the 8.

[freely]

A fully fit hannebery (will we see one?) could galvanise the rest of the mids.

[axcellence]

A fully fit hannebery (will we see one?) could galvanise the rest of the mids.

A fully fit Hanneberry played in the vfl last week! He should be in team against Brisbane.

[saintadamski]

Here is the draw:
GC ( Townsville)
Bris ( H)
Rich (H)
North ( Tas)
Geel ( A)
WB(H)
Melb (H)
Adel (A)
Freo (H)
Carl ( MCG)
Syd (A)

Three wins?
I'm struggling to see three wins.

I can see losses to:
Brisbane...Forget yesterday, they are a good side.
Richmond...Way too good for us.
North...Would have been a gimme for us until they changed coach.
Geelong...This will be ugly.
Adealaide...As will this.
Fremantle...Hogan always kills us!
Sydney...So does Buddy.

The others are 50/50 at best.
Gold Coast...If we lose that, it's season over...We only beat them by a point here. Our travel record is awful.
Bulldogs...They are hit and miss with their form.
Melbourne...They are playing better.
Carlton...Will depend on how they're playing with the new coach.

We have no easy wins in that lot.

I'll go with GC. Watched them yesterday and they are hanging out for a rest. we are terrible traveling but they are terrible full stop at the moment,
Carlton - honeymoon period over round 22 already will have Daisy working out post season Mad Monday

Melb play Marvel poorly
North - see Carlton and ad tank mode to it as still hold their first round pick - ( love carlton traded theirs)
WB - depends which WB turn up.
Freo - see WB

On top of that Richmond do not play Marvel well at all
Bris - again depends which on e turns up , 1st 1/4 and a bit yesterday or second half
Syd- round 23 Buddy in cotton wool to give him some hop of playing out the 10 year deal, and several other already having operations

Geelong- could be record breaking
Adel- Forfeit and save money on airfares and accommodation

"Adel- Forfeit and save money on airfares and accommodation" LMFAO!! but agree!

I see 2 possible wins there...Gold Coast and Carlton....and that's about it

Positive is a new coach, and another top end draft pick....PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE recruit a young gun mid.....PLEASE!!!!

[remboy]

If we were able to win five out of the first eleven games, surely with an easier draw and better run with injuries (and it couldn't get much worse) we should be able to at least match that.

[Impatient Sainter]

I dont care how many we win as long as Richardson is gone at the end of the year!

[tedtheodorelogan2018]

10 wins for the season. Half way there.

[bigred]

I would think ten wins for the year would be best case scenario. I still don't think that is anywhere near good enough.

Our list is shyte and we have some serious selection integrity issues as outlined in above posts. Our coach is not up to it and we have given him a couple of years too many. 2018 should have been the last year of his run out and any extension should have had its justification based on that.

Seriously, if we lose to Gold Coast this week we should be handing out lemons and sarsparilla.

[HighettMan]

Finals are possible.

We will win this week and only need 5 to 6 from there.

The players we have coming back might even help us pick up the unexpected win and sneak 6 to 7.

Whether we make the 8 or not, a strong finish is important to create a winning culture and build on belief for a really strong tilt in 2020.