Lock for Bottom 4?

[mightysainters]

I’m not a troll, been a loyal poster / lurker for nearly 20 years, but everyday I’m becoming more and more pessimistic of our year. Don’t think I’ve ever been more down and less excited for a year.. ever.
We just haven’t improved enough and have extremely poor coaching and execution.
Lock in bottom 4.. long year ahead fellas

What’s your thoughts? Just can’t see it through rose coloured glasses when everything points to a disaster year

[fugazi]

It is difficult ti be optimistic about 2019 given the efforts last year.
But, we have some notable Ins
Roberton will make a big difference with his intelligent play in the half back line.
Bruce will help tge forward line with his marking and contesting.
Hannas can play, and if fit, will be a big inclusion in the midfield.
We have some genuine pace now, thanks to the mature age recruits.

We haven't lost anyone of note

[The Fireman]

Lock

[DJ Higgins]

Not a lock but wouldn't be a surprise. Until we get another quick mid we will struggle. Based on the intra club game O r skills are still sub standard.
Positives are Bruce and Roberton coming back and hunter Clarke is improving. Bad news is we still have a ruck issue and no elites. Gresham is good but elite seems a stretch like Sinclair the year before.
Stink it up this year and Richo goes and we get a good draft pick. Next year king and bytel hopefully will play and some more fringe players will be cut

[saynta]

Top 8 for me.

https://www.saints.com.au/news/2019-02- ... e-reunited


https://www.saints.com.au/news/2019-02- ... dy-to-fire

[MC Gusto]

I think we are a lock for bottom 6 and maybe bottom 4 depending on how well we start the season.

Whilst we can talk up our list on paper, which teams will we finish above?

Carlton
GC
Freo? Not sure
Bris? Got a feeling they will be a big improver
Dogs? Maybe - they could go further back this year

Honestly who else will finish below us??

[takeaway]

14th. Hanners will drag us out of the bottom 4 with his off field motivation and coaching. Top 5 pick next year, King fit, those drafted in 2013-17 hitting their straps, we're ready.

[tedtheodorelogan2018]

We will finish not far outside the 8 (maybe 2-3 wins). I don't expect finals but we need to bounce back in a view for pushing for finals in 2020.

Positives for 2019
# I think we will see plenty of growth in our 20-25 year olds this year. E.g. Gresham, Billings, Paddy...all the picks around that age bracket
# Roberton and Bruce are back and fit
# New coaches and game plan. New vibe at the club.
# Hannebery and Kent will bring in some quality, hardness and maturity
# 2-3 of the mature age recruits will bring in something fresh and have an impact...especially Parker

Bottom 4 is not a lock.

Ross: Young guns ready to fire http://m.saints.com.au/news/2019-02-26/ ... .mobileapp

[prwilkinson]

Hope St Kilda kick straight this year.

[evertonfc]

I think we're an absolute lock for bottom six; bottom four about 75%

And the reasons why are below - something I posted a couple of months back.

I hope so bloody badly that I'm wrong. We really can't afford another bad year on so many fronts.

Yet the scope for improvement of the teams above on the ladder - is greater than what we have.

I mean, Adelaide (2017 GF), WB (2016 Premiers), Port (notorious under-performers), North (momentum club with upside) and Essendon (two years of incredible trading plus a great 22) didn't even make the eight in 2018, with Fremantle and Brisbane sure to improve as a result of age profile and home ground advantage.

So we'd not only need to improve more than the top eight, we'd need to improve against that lot, too. We're entering an era of supreme competitiveness, heightened by the fact that a superlatively talented list (GWS) and a brilliant top-six-player side (Geelong) aren't locks to make the eight.

The problem isn't just us; it's that there's a back-log of better teams above us who under-performed in a major way in 2018. They all have plenty of A-graders, too.

Our best hope is to learn how to play as a team. I know that sounds cliche, but if each player nails his role for the good of the collective, we'll be able to grind out better results than in 2018.

Ironically, I thought we did this quite well in 2016 and in parts of 2017.

However, I don't see...
- The ruthless desire to improve (it's more of a 'hope').
- Sophisticated coaching (Ratten and Richo should swap jobs - we should talk about this in another thread).
- A playing group willing to sacrifice for the collective will.
- Raw talent.
- Highly intelligent players.

[The_Dud]

If our players come out this year and all of a sudden consistently start playing to their potential (Billings, Paddy, Acres, Bruce, Lonie, Sinclair, Dunstan, Membrey, Gresh, Seb, Newnes) and we improve our goal kicking to at least average, we could give the finals a real shake.

That is a long shot though.

This year either needs to be a roaring success or absolute disaster, if it’s another in between year it will just give those in charge an excuse to continue on with mediocrity.

[CQ SAINT]

I’m not a troll, been a loyal poster / lurker for nearly 20 years, but everyday I’m becoming more and more pessimistic of our year. Don’t think I’ve ever been more down and less excited for a year.. ever.
We just haven’t improved enough and have extremely poor coaching and execution.
Lock in bottom 4.. long year ahead fellas

What’s your thoughts? Just can’t see it through rose coloured glasses when everything points to a disaster year

My thoughts are you are lucky to have missed the late 70's and early to mid 80's.

Im quietly confident we could get back to around where we were in 2017.

Im thinking 8th-10th, 7-10 wins and Clark, Billings, Gresham, Marshall, Steele, Hannerbery and Dunstan to improve significantly on last year and Battle, Phillips, Coffield and Pierce to get more game time and Parker is my smokey.

Im hopeful for good start and steady finish to the year and Im not convinced that there is much improvement to come from last years top 12 with the exception of maybe Melbourne and in recent years we have beaten quite a few of them and should have beaten a few more.

[evertonfc]

Hope St Kilda kick straight this year.

This could actually account for us moving from the bottom four to 9th-11th.

Straight kicking would add 4+ wins to our overall tally.

[kosifantutti]

I can’t see the point in getting depressed about the Saints now. We’ll finish somewhere between 1 and 18. Just enjoy it as it happens. Or not.

[mad saint guy]

There is a lot of potential improvement in our list. Roberton, Bruce, Acres and Long are all virtually new recruits to go along with Hannebery, Kent and it looks like Parker could be best 22. Then if Billings can get back to his 2017 form (but hopefully more accurate in front of goal) we start looking okay. Who knows what we'll get out of Dunstan, McKenzie, Sinclair and Phillips; all have the potential to be best 22 yet all could drop off and end up in the VFL as well. If we have a decent run with injuries then I think we will finish in the 10-14 range.

I suspect this will be the kind of team the coaches aim to field for most of the year, and I think it's not too far below finals quality. I'd play more kids in place of Savage, Newnes, Brown and Dunstan though

B: Webster, Brown, Geary
HB: Savage, Carlisle, Roberton
C: Hannebery, Steele, Newnes
HF: Billings, McCartin, Gresham
F: Long, Bruce, Membrey

Foll: Longer, Steven, Ross
Int: Clark, Dunstan, Acres, Kent

Emg: Sinclair, Parker, Marshall, McKenzie

[Bernard Shakey]

I see four wins for the year.
As long as we don't get thrashed every week, we will have improved!

[evertonfc]

There is a lot of potential improvement in our list. Roberton, Bruce, Acres and Long are all virtually new recruits to go along with Hannebery, Kent and it looks like Parker could be best 22. Then if Billings can get back to his 2017 form (but hopefully more accurate in front of goal) we start looking okay. Who knows what we'll get out of Dunstan, McKenzie, Sinclair and Phillips; all have the potential to be best 22 yet all could drop off and end up in the VFL as well. If we have a decent run with injuries then I think we will finish in the 10-14 range.

There sure is.

And if we were to unlock 50-60% of that potential, we'd get up into that 10-14 range.

For some reason, we seem absolutely incapable of unlocking that potential with any consistency.

[mightysainters]

I see improvement, I just see more improvement from other teams who we finished above.. compound that with most teams above us getting better and by a bigger margin:
Only two teams I see us having a better year than is Carlton and GC.

[mightysainters]

Not to mention our two top 5 players in Hannas and Carlisle now out for longer than expected is the word.. especially carlisle who is the most important player in our team with Steven

[To the top]

My take is that 2018 was in prospect from the decline of Dempster, Fisher, Riewoldt and Montagna including post the emotional game v Richmond which was the final angry shot fired by Riewoldt and Montagna

That left us with Steven and Carlisle as class players including because of injuries in 2018 starting with the Warrior Armitage and the class of Roberton, then Acres, Bruce, Long

And the early injury to Membrey impacted including on his kicking

I have long held that our rebuild (because “Free Agency” came too late for us, when we were on the decline from very good sides) commenced from the Draft where we had 3 Picks in the top 20 (Billings, Dunstan and Acres) plus who we have added from other sides post then, so the likes of Steele

So we need patience whilst these top 20 Draft Picks pick up the reins and become very capable AFL footballers and better, which some will

Plus that a couple of lower Picks out perform - so hopefully the likes of Battle

My view is that we wasted the transition from very good sides because we did not progressively introduce a couple of young players into those very good sides - instead recruiting average players from other Clubs (think Peake, Gardiner from Geelong, Birsse (??) from WB and others so clogging our List and taking opportunity from Drafted youth - but you can not go backwards)

Hence my summation of our prospects in 2019 and why

It will depend on organic improvement by those we have Drafted at the top end over recent seasons - and you would expect to see significant contributions from them adding to the competivness of the side

My assessment I would put is confirmed by the Drafting of mature Aged State League players after our initial 2 Draft Picks (and, again there is a long term aspect to both of them consistent with the demographic of our List)

And the players will all continue to work on strengths and weaknesses (aka Ross’s disposal)

Mind you all sides look to improve

So will our improvement out perform the competition?

There is a chance

[bigred]

I can’t see the point in getting depressed about the Saints now. We’ll finish somewhere between 1 and 18. Just enjoy it as it happens. Or not.

Yeah but 2018 almost broke me.

Have never been more unhappy with a season of football in 40+ years.

[kosifantutti]

I can’t see the point in getting depressed about the Saints now. We’ll finish somewhere between 1 and 18. Just enjoy it as it happens. Or not.

Yeah but 2018 almost broke me.

Have never been more unhappy with a season of football in 40+ years.

Me too, but I look back fondly to this time last year before I knew without doubt we were terrible.


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[Cairnsman]

If our list has luck with injury we can make the finals.

We will know by round 6

[The Craw]

I can’t see the point in getting depressed about the Saints now. We’ll finish somewhere between 1 and 18. Just enjoy it as it happens. Or not.

Yeah but 2018 almost broke me.

Have never been more unhappy with a season of football in 40+ years.

Totally agree Big Red ..... 2018 was putrid.

I have never been more disillusioned with the club than I was last year. So much so I cancelled all memberships. I have only just renewed.

The club for mine lost focus .... more worried about its social standing than being a football club.

No accountability and rudderless leadership.

I am not expecting much this season ..... All I expect is effort, a bit of character and some heart.

Bottom 4 more than likely.

[Crossy66]

I have been pretty bullish on us winning 10 - 12 games if we just kick straight and have a good run with injuries. So with a number of key players like longer, Hanna, Carlisle likely to miss early games, its a bit of a worry. From what i can work out, the rule changes will mean that first use out of the centre will be important, so a competitive tap ruckman (Longer) is critical as will leg Speed We have a few one speed mids so will need parker etc to step up. If the opposition take it out of the centre, it will come down fast to mainly one on one contests and without Jake, thats also a worry as Other other talls like Austin and Clavarino arent quite there yet. The third factor they may work against us is the new kick in rule. I think it will mean that the kick in will be the best way to launch an attack, so a team that cant kick straight will be in serious trouble.