Agree with a number of your points but I think you are undervaluing our recruiting over the last 5 years or so. Not the best, but OK in my view, especially recently. The coach, and playing list, game plan, etc are of course very important aspects, but a number of studies conducted around the world on the most successful sports teams in modern history (not AFL teams but still applicable) have illustrated the most important aspect (the queen) in that success - on field leadership, ie captain and senior players. Note that in your example Melb 1965-67, Barassi had just left for Carlton, Swans had Skilton, great player but not a leader like Barassi. Recent AFL success stories virtually all had strong on field leadership - Brisbane - Voss & Co, Hawks Hodge & Co, Cats Harley & Co, even Cotchin's improvement in output/leadership was a major factor in the Tiger's flag. Saints had Roo, Joey, etc in the late 2000's.samoht wrote: ↑Mon 31 Dec 2018 9:38am Yes, scollop. That's what I was getting at (with my chess analogy). I'm not supportive of Richo, I'm just contending that you can't really get a handle on a coach's capabilities from their wins/losses.
The important thing (to me) is to recruit and draft our way to a strong list - I think smart, targeted and planned recruiting is the key.
Proof that it's never an even playing field - is that you can have a 19-0 coach and a 0-10 coach being one and the same coach (Ross Lyon).
Norm Smith may have won 6 premierships when in charge of a very strong Melbourne list, in the 1950's, but he had a 33% win loss ratio from 1965 to 1972.
Year Team Games Coached Wins Losses Draws Win %
1965 Melbourne Demons 17 10 7 0 58.8%
1966 Melbourne Demons 19 3 16 0 15.8%
1967 Melbourne Demons 18 8 10 0 44.4%
1969 South Melbourne Swans 20 7 13 0 35.0%
1970 South Melbourne Swans 23 14 9 0 60.9%
1971 South Melbourne Swans 22 3 19 0 13.6%
1972 South Melbourne Swans 22 2 20 0 9.1%
What happened in 1966, 1971 and 1972? This is Norm Smith, acknowledged as the doyen of coaches. His win/loss ratio is up and down like a yoyo, year by year.
I think the appropriate thing to do is to wait and see, with the new coaches on board, and above all we need to nail our recruiting from now on.
Build it (draft and recruit our way to a strong list) and they (the wins) will come.
I have said before that with only Steven/Geary left from the 2006-10 recruiting periods, that is our major issue, dearth of senior leadership. Hannebury will help, and that is why he was recruited. Geary does his best, but needs help, and probably needs a captain above him. We imo have quite a few players who have now had enough senior games under their belt to have improved impact, and that would be helped further by having more Hodge types keeping them in line. So as you say it is not all on the coach, although I agree Richo is on his last year (or part thereof) if the team does not improve in 2019. It is of great value to any coach however to have a few senior leaders such as Hodge, Mitchell, Roughhead on the field.