Pace replacing Medium/Slow Bowlers

[OldGeorgeYoung]

We’ve all heard a lot about the potential to inject more leg speed into our team.
Whilst highly desirable, I’ve tried to look at which faster recruits are likely to get a game.

Now during 2018 our list played a total of 481 games between them (and of course the total will change as a result of injuries, etc). It’s interesting to use this total as a cap and then try & predict which players will play more & less games (particularly as some senior players will be returning + Hanners), and see how it limits opportunities for newer blood.

If we win more games, the total is likely to go down creating less opportunities to blood inexperienced recruits.

During my first attempt my total ballooned out to 530 games. I’ve trimmed this back to an even 500 games. I’ve tried to estimate our match committee’s views on games for each player on our list as opposed to SS Xmas wish list.

My biggest changes are:
More games for Coffield (10 to 15), Acres (12 to 20), Hanners (0 to 20), Clark (15 to 20), Roberton (4 to 20), Long (10 to 20), Kent (0 to 15), Battle (6 to 12), Bruce 3 to 15) and McKenzie (13 to 18).

Less games for Savage (18 to 5), Dunstan (16 to 6), Armo (15 to 4) and Rice (11 to 0).
Whilst games played can be argued for Longer vs Pierce, Brown vs Austin & McCartin vs Marshall, I’ve balanced the games 50/50 so the outcome of who plays more shouldn’t impact too much on 1st & 2nd year draft picks.

Conclusion
We may introduce more pace, however in terms on positively influencing games, this is more likely to come from Gresham, Long, Clark, McKenzie, at the expensive of Armo, Dunstan & Rice, however our rucks foot speed won’t improve.

Whilst enjoyable to watch, I can’t really see the likely of Young, Hind & Parker racking up many games, and the progress of Clavarino, Paton & Philips may be slowed, along with King & Bytel.

No. Player Name Ht Wt DoB 2018 2019 Games
481 500
1 Nick Coffield 191 82 23.10.99 10 15
2 Jake Carlisle 201 104 01.10.91 17 20
3 Jack Steven 180 84 28.03.90 22 20
4 Jade Gresham 177 79 24.08.97 22 20
5 Shane Savage 186 84 05.01.91 18 5
6 Sebastian Ross 187 88 07.05.93 21 20
7 Luke Dunstan 184 85 29.01.95 16 6
8 Blake Acres 190 92 07.10.95 12 20
9 Jack Steele 187 90 13.12.95 21 20
10 Dan Hannebery 181 79 24.02.91 0 20
11 Hunter Clark 186 79 26.03.99 15 20
12 Max King 203 90 07.07.00 0 0
13 Jack Lonie 174 71 13.08.96 11 11
14 Jarryn Geary 182 82 23.06.88 20 20
15 Jack Billings 184 81 18.08.95 21 20
16 Jack Newnes 184 86 24.02.93 22 20
17 Dylan Roberton 194 91 21.06.91 4 20
18 Billy Longer 202 105 12.05.93 5 16
19 Rowan Marshall 201 101 24.11.95 12 12
20 David Armitage 185 88 16.06.88 15 4
21 Ben Long 182 74 21.08.97 10 20
22 Nathan Brown 196 99 17.12.88 15 10
23 Jack Bytel 189 82 14.03.00 0 0
24 Logan Austin 196 92 08.07.95 7 12
25 Dean Kent 179 86 24.02.94 0 15
26 Josh Battle 193 88 01.09.98 6 12
27 Josh Bruce 197 102 08.06.92 3 15
28 Tim Membrey 188 89 26.05.94 20 20
29 Jimmy Webster 188 79 28.06.93 17 20
30 Ed Phillips 187 80 29.03.98 7 3
31 Brandon White 188 85 13.01.97 6 5
32 Paddy McCartin 194 100 19.04.96 13 10
33 Ben Paton 186 77 19.10.98 3 3
34 Matt Parker 190 76 25.01.96 0 0
35 Jack Sinclair 180 82 12.02.95 20 20
36 Daniel McKenzie 184 83 17.05.96 13 18
37 Bailey Rice 184 88 10.02.97 11 0
38 Oscar Clavarino 195 86 22.05.99 0 2
40 Nick Hind 180 72 19.08.94 0 0
41 Robbie Young 179 73 02.03.95 0 0
Rookies
39 Darragh Joyce 194 90 23.04.97 2 0
42 Lewis Pierce 203 104 16.11.94 3 6
44 Callum Wilkie 191 87 10.03.96 0 0
46 Doulton Langlands 187 78 29.07.99 0 0
Out
Weller 13
Hickey 13
Freeman 2
Gilbert 11
Stevens 2

Not sure how to attached an Excel spreadsheet. Just my contribution towards making the summer past time more interesting.

[CQ SAINT]

I am a bit confused. We play 22 games with 22 players dont we? Injury doesnt effect that. Unless we play finals we can only play 484 games collectively.

[guitars4]

We’ve all heard a lot about the potential to inject more leg speed into our team.
Whilst highly desirable, I’ve tried to look at which faster recruits are likely to get a game.

Now during 2018 our list played a total of 481 games between them (and of course the total will change as a result of injuries, etc). It’s interesting to use this total as a cap and then try & predict which players will play more & less games (particularly as some senior players will be returning + Hanners), and see how it limits opportunities for newer blood.

If we win more games, the total is likely to go down creating less opportunities to blood inexperienced recruits.

During my first attempt my total ballooned out to 530 games. I’ve trimmed this back to an even 500 games. I’ve tried to estimate our match committee’s views on games for each player on our list as opposed to SS Xmas wish list.

My biggest changes are:
More games for Coffield (10 to 15), Acres (12 to 20), Hanners (0 to 20), Clark (15 to 20), Roberton (4 to 20), Long (10 to 20), Kent (0 to 15), Battle (6 to 12), Bruce 3 to 15) and McKenzie (13 to 18).

Less games for Savage (18 to 5), Dunstan (16 to 6), Armo (15 to 4) and Rice (11 to 0).
Whilst games played can be argued for Longer vs Pierce, Brown vs Austin & McCartin vs Marshall, I’ve balanced the games 50/50 so the outcome of who plays more shouldn’t impact too much on 1st & 2nd year draft picks.

Conclusion
We may introduce more pace, however in terms on positively influencing games, this is more likely to come from Gresham, Long, Clark, McKenzie, at the expensive of Armo, Dunstan & Rice, however our rucks foot speed won’t improve.

Whilst enjoyable to watch, I can’t really see the likely of Young, Hind & Parker racking up many games, and the progress of Clavarino, Paton & Philips may be slowed, along with King & Bytel.

No. Player Name Ht Wt DoB 2018 2019 Games
481 500
1 Nick Coffield 191 82 23.10.99 10 15
2 Jake Carlisle 201 104 01.10.91 17 20
3 Jack Steven 180 84 28.03.90 22 20
4 Jade Gresham 177 79 24.08.97 22 20
5 Shane Savage 186 84 05.01.91 18 5
6 Sebastian Ross 187 88 07.05.93 21 20
7 Luke Dunstan 184 85 29.01.95 16 6
8 Blake Acres 190 92 07.10.95 12 20
9 Jack Steele 187 90 13.12.95 21 20
10 Dan Hannebery 181 79 24.02.91 0 20
11 Hunter Clark 186 79 26.03.99 15 20
12 Max King 203 90 07.07.00 0 0
13 Jack Lonie 174 71 13.08.96 11 11
14 Jarryn Geary 182 82 23.06.88 20 20
15 Jack Billings 184 81 18.08.95 21 20
16 Jack Newnes 184 86 24.02.93 22 20
17 Dylan Roberton 194 91 21.06.91 4 20
18 Billy Longer 202 105 12.05.93 5 16
19 Rowan Marshall 201 101 24.11.95 12 12
20 David Armitage 185 88 16.06.88 15 4
21 Ben Long 182 74 21.08.97 10 20
22 Nathan Brown 196 99 17.12.88 15 10
23 Jack Bytel 189 82 14.03.00 0 0
24 Logan Austin 196 92 08.07.95 7 12
25 Dean Kent 179 86 24.02.94 0 15
26 Josh Battle 193 88 01.09.98 6 12
27 Josh Bruce 197 102 08.06.92 3 15
28 Tim Membrey 188 89 26.05.94 20 20
29 Jimmy Webster 188 79 28.06.93 17 20
30 Ed Phillips 187 80 29.03.98 7 3
31 Brandon White 188 85 13.01.97 6 5
32 Paddy McCartin 194 100 19.04.96 13 10
33 Ben Paton 186 77 19.10.98 3 3
34 Matt Parker 190 76 25.01.96 0 0
35 Jack Sinclair 180 82 12.02.95 20 20
36 Daniel McKenzie 184 83 17.05.96 13 18
37 Bailey Rice 184 88 10.02.97 11 0
38 Oscar Clavarino 195 86 22.05.99 0 2
40 Nick Hind 180 72 19.08.94 0 0
41 Robbie Young 179 73 02.03.95 0 0
Rookies
39 Darragh Joyce 194 90 23.04.97 2 0
42 Lewis Pierce 203 104 16.11.94 3 6
44 Callum Wilkie 191 87 10.03.96 0 0
46 Doulton Langlands 187 78 29.07.99 0 0
Out
Weller 13
Hickey 13
Freeman 2
Gilbert 11
Stevens 2

Not sure how to attached an Excel spreadsheet. Just my contribution towards making the summer past time more interesting.

Well thats a lot of calculating & math's was never one of my strongest areas so I do appreciate the effort you have put in but IMO AFL is a very slippery slope & it doesn't take much to go wrong to throw those estimates out the window especially if a key player or players are side lined early in the season or for a long period but a very thorough analysis anyway