picks

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skeptic
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Re: picks

Post: # 1763016Post skeptic »

tedtheodorelogan2018 wrote: Wed 17 Oct 2018 4:51pm We got Claravino and Paton in the 30's and 40's. Both look very promising.
Not knocking Clav or Paton but boy you really have faith in everything the club is doing at the moment don’t you...
A dismal season
Shitty long term coaching record
A number of players that haven’t produced good football for years
Traded in players with injury concerns
And now downgrading picks to get later gems

Nothing rattles you does it. I get that you have faith in the current regimen... but doesn’t anything that’s been going on concern you in the least


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763018Post Gershwin »

FortiusQuoFidelius wrote: Wed 17 Oct 2018 4:41pm For f**** sake you guys... take off your blinkers and consider the big picture.

We have delisted 10 players and traded in 2, so we have to draft in 8. Before the pick swap we had picks 4, 28 67 and 79 meaning we would be required to draft in 4 players in the 90's or higher.

Now with 4, 36, 46, 67 and 79 that reduces to 3 players in the 90s and potentially even less considering there may be opportunity to further trade picks up to and including draft night.

If one or more of Lukosius, Rozee or Rankine is available at 4, and it is almost guaranteed that one of them will (as Carlton will take Walsh at 1) we can potentially trade out our no 4 pick on draft night to port for perhaps 5 and 15 or to Adelaide for 8 and 16 or 8 and 21, improving our draft position dramatically.

8, 21, 36, 46, 67, 79, 97 and one other (currently 115 but likely lower as some clubs will pass) looks like a pretty strong hand to gain some talent!
We need to upgrade Pierce - will take a pick.


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tedtheodorelogan2018
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Re: picks

Post: # 1763020Post tedtheodorelogan2018 »

Of course it does. There are problems and this year was terrible, but I think the club has been making good moves to rectify the issues. Simon has done a good job and there will be more changes.

I have issues with the over the top negative hysterical bulls*** posted on here. Pretty sure I'm not the only one. Some football supporters don't have a clue for many reasons....IQ and not actually playing the game at all are a couple.

Anyway, pretty good trade period I reckon. I think we will strengthen our draft position too.


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763023Post desertsaint »

can only pray the club doesn't downgrade pick 4 or even pick 4 and 36 for two or three inbetween.


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763030Post chico2001 »

tedtheodorelogan2018 wrote: Wed 17 Oct 2018 5:09pm Of course it does. There are problems and this year was terrible, but I think the club has been making good moves to rectify the issues. Simon has done a good job and there will be more changes.

I have issues with the over the top negative hysterical bulls*** posted on here. Pretty sure I'm not the only one. Some football supporters don't have a clue for many reasons....IQ and not actually playing the game at all are a couple.

Anyway, pretty good trade period I reckon. I think we will strengthen our draft position too.
poor boy...you have issues with" over the top negative hysterical bulls*** posted on here". No, you have issues with anyone that has a different viewpoint than you. By the way, let the forum know your playing history then. Put it on here for all to see and we can compare you with others on here who have played the game. While you are there.....let us know your education level and we can compare that as well....That will be interesting. It seems to me that you are painting yourself as the perfect person on this forum in all matters. Be a real man and also let us know your weaknesses, maybe someone on here can help you, if you have any of course.


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763037Post st.byron »

skeptic wrote: Wed 17 Oct 2018 5:04pm
tedtheodorelogan2018 wrote: Wed 17 Oct 2018 4:51pm We got Claravino and Paton in the 30's and 40's. Both look very promising.
Not knocking Clav or Paton but boy you really have faith in everything the club is doing at the moment don’t you...
A dismal season
Shitty long term coaching record
A number of players that haven’t produced good football for years
Traded in players with injury concerns
And now downgrading picks to get later gems

Nothing rattles you does it. I get that you have faith in the current regimen... but doesn’t anything that’s been going on concern you in the least
Am genuinely wondering if he’s a club plant


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763039Post ss1986 »

He’s definitely a club plant.

You cannot genuinely believe this has been a good trade period, Hannebery and Kent were desperate to play for Richo, Paton and Clavarino are fine examples of picks at 30odd and 40odd and that everything is rosy.

Not a supporter on Gods green Earth believes that. Not one.


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763052Post dragit »

st.byron wrote: Wed 17 Oct 2018 5:37pm Am genuinely wondering if he’s a club plant
Is failing miserably if true, creating more angst among saints fans than hype by relentlessly talking up s***-trucks and a footy department that has spiraled to the bottom


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763053Post tedtheodorelogan2018 »

Really?

Just calling out the bulls***...the reactions of you and others proves I hit a sweet spot of truth.


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763054Post st.byron »

tedtheodorelogan2018 wrote: Wed 17 Oct 2018 6:17pm Really?

Just calling out the bulls***...the reactions of you and others proves I hit a sweet spot of truth.
Yep. For sure. Straight out of the Kellyanne Conway playbook.


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763055Post dragit »

tedtheodorelogan2018 wrote: Wed 17 Oct 2018 6:17pm proves I hit a sweet spot of truth.
Image


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763064Post cwrcyn »

Negativity is rampant on here. Some posters......well....I hope they don't behave the same way to the people they live with.


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763069Post fugazi »

if we down grade 4, it should only be for selections including 5 or 6 , not 8.


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tedtheodorelogan2018
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Re: picks

Post: # 1763074Post tedtheodorelogan2018 »

Standby. Possible Crows and Saints deal.


Posters that have admitted they were wrong about Hanna's gastro and the club didn't create a cover story.
Total = 1.
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Re: picks

Post: # 1763290Post on the outer »

I don't want to upset anybody, but you do realise that pick 36 is EIGHT picks away from pick 28. Its not like Lethlean has sold the family cow for a handful of magic beans. Do you stand a better chance at 28 of picking a great player than 36, Yes. Is the difference huge, I wouldn't have thought so. Will we pick a gem at 46 I don't know, with our luck probably not. However, is the chance of picking a good player at 46 better than at the end of the draft at pick 90+, of course it is.


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763330Post ace »

FortiusQuoFidelius wrote: Wed 17 Oct 2018 4:41pm For f**** sake you guys... take off your blinkers and consider the big picture.

We have delisted 10 players and traded in 2, so we have to draft in 8. Before the pick swap we had picks 4, 28 67 and 79 meaning we would be required to draft in 4 players in the 90's or higher.

Now with 4, 36, 46, 67 and 79 that reduces to 3 players in the 90s and potentially even less considering there may be opportunity to further trade picks up to and including draft night.

If one or more of Lukosius, Rozee or Rankine is available at 4, and it is almost guaranteed that one of them will (as Carlton will take Walsh at 1) we can potentially trade out our no 4 pick on draft night to port for perhaps 5 and 15 or to Adelaide for 8 and 16 or 8 and 21, improving our draft position dramatically.

8, 21, 36, 46, 67, 79, 97 and one other (currently 115 but likely lower as some clubs will pass) looks like a pretty strong hand to gain some talent!
My count is different

Seniors Out
1 Freeman
2 Gilbert
3 Goddard
4 Hickey
5 Minchington
6 Stevens
7 Weller
8 Wright

Senors IN
1 Hannebery
2 Kent

That leaves 6 Senior slots to be filled
Picks 4, 36, 46, 67, 79, 97
Late picks have a habit of improving as a result of priority and father-son bidding
Some clubs may not clear enough vacancies
So picks 79 and 97 may move in quite a bit.

Rookies
Already 2 Rookie B vacancies, Rookie A no vacancies unless someone is promoted to the senior list
Rookies B OUT
Connellan

Rookie A OUT,
Joyce (If Joyce is moved to take up the Irish rookie B slot that frees one rookie A slot)
Rookie B IN
Joyce (only one Irish rookie allowed as a rookie B)
Alabakis

That leaves 1 Rookie A slot and 1 rookie B (not Irish) to be filled
Rookie A will be pick 3

Note this year there will only be a few hours between the late picks of the senior draft, preseason draft and the rookie draft.
Clubs will have little time to scourer the leftovers ahead of the rookie draft.
The likelihood of finding a diamond for the rookie draft will be much harder than in previous years.


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763343Post on the outer »

Yes - Except

From AFL website http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-ex ... ie-players

MINIMUM NUMBER OF ROOKIES
Rookie lists are now recognised as a key list management tool and designating a minimum number of rookies is no longer necessary as it is purely a club decision.

So there are no "Rookie Slots to be filled"

Also

Marshall and Pierce both listed as Rookies on Saints website. if Marshall and Pierce have to be upgraded, 4 Picks


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763345Post bergsone »

Will picks 36,46,67,79 come in a bit with Father/son,academy selections,if that's the case trading out 28 for 36,46 seem a good deal.


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763350Post cwrcyn »

Statistically, the third round produces as much talent as the second round. The hit rate in the second round is remarkably unimpressive given people's perception of it


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763351Post ss1986 »

cwrcyn wrote: Thu 18 Oct 2018 1:53pm Statistically, the third round produces as much talent as the second round. The hit rate in the second round is remarkably unimpressive given people's perception of it
Source?


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763354Post cwrcyn »

Source is Footywire. Check the draft listings each year from 2010 to 2015. You can count those who made it as regular senior players. I had a good look at it. It looks like the average of hits in the second round is around 10 players out of 18. For the third round it's 7 players out of 18. There is a statistical difference, of course, but it's not significant at all when you consider that the second round starts at pick 19 and the third round ends at pick 54


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763357Post cwrcyn »

Based on that, it's not a disadvantage to have picks 36 and 46 verses pick 28. In fact, it would give you a slightly better chance of picking up a good player.


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763360Post cwrcyn »

Here are some of the players who've been picked up in the 36 - 50 range 2011 to 2015 (non saints). There are some others who are still establishing themselves who I haven't included

Riley Bonner
Rhys Mathieson
Blake Hardwick
Bailey Williams
Sam Rowe
Jordan Murdoch
Lachie Hunter
Ben Brown
Riley Knight
Allir Allir
Tom Barrass
Mitch McGovern
Bailey Dale
Caleb Daniel
Jake Kolojashnij
Ben jacobs
Mason Wood
Alex Neal-Bullen
Dean Kent
Alex Pearce
Tom Cole

Other picks in the 50s were

Lachie Neale
Tory Dickson
Mark Hutchings
Alex Sexton
Orazio Fantasia
James Sicily
Jayden Hunt
Ed Langdon
Oscar McDonald
Tom Phillips
Darcy Byrne-Jones


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763365Post tedtheodorelogan2018 »

After pick 20 this draft, the field is virtually even.

You can get good kids in the 30's and 40's.
Sometimes even 50's like Ed Phillips. We have to remember a kid in the 30's or 40's are still in the best 50 players in the entire of Australia. They are still very good footballers.


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Re: picks

Post: # 1763383Post cwrcyn »

A guy who usd to be on SEN did a great draft analysis last year comparing each grouping of 10 players (1 to 10, 11 to 20 etc) and it was very interesting. What it did show was that the hit rate between each grouping dropped awa slightly, not dramatically. His surname was Luff. Anyway, it showed that between pick 8 and 30 it was a lottery. I'm not sure if it's been posted online


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