Billy has a Tagger

[older saint]

Interesting info I was told on the weekend by someone who works as a scout for an AFL team that he has been asked by his club to watch all Longer's games for some time now ( AFL and VFL) as this club are interested in him and in need os a ruckman.

Clearly rated by some in the AFL .

[bigcarl]

I was told the same thing about Hickey

[saintbob]

I hope he knows where Sandy are playing this weekend then.

[Yorkeys]

Hasn't the scout woken up to the practical joke yet? Cruel way to sideline him. (Still love to read his assessment notes, but).

[Viscount Jeremiah]

I find it hard to imagine any team would be interested in him.

On the other hand he has age on his side and is good in the ruck but I'm not sure clubs today would be willing to look at someone who hasn't proven he can do literally anything around the ground at all.

Fingers crossed he's competes hard and would like to see him improve

[CURLY]

Geelong would be all over Longer and I would think Hawthorn would be interested.

[Wayne42]

On SEN on Sunday Frawley said "Billy's not the sharpest tool in the shed" .

He'd fit right in at some clubs.

[Viscount Jeremiah]

Geelong would be all over Longer and I would think Hawthorn would be interested.

Yeah potentially. Not sure though on Clarkson he's mentioned before that he thinks hit out's can be a pointless stat sometimes so assume he values around the ground work more. Ben Mcevoy certainly never that good at winning hit outs.

[Joffa Burns]

Have written this previously but Billy is a perfect fit for GWS and would probably become a premiership ruckman at that club.

[Joffa Burns]

Have written this previously but Billy is a perfect fit for GWS and would probably become a premiership ruckman at that club.

[Cairnsman]

Do the new zone rules supposedly coming into effect next season help ruckman like Billy?

[SydneySainter]

Geelong would be all over Longer and I would think Hawthorn would be interested.

Yeah potentially. Not sure though on Clarkson he's mentioned before that he thinks hit out's can be a pointless stat sometimes so assume he values around the ground work more. Ben Mcevoy certainly never that good at winning hit outs.

Billy's hit out tally also hasn't been anything to write home about this season, so I can't imagine that would be a big enough draw card.

[rodgerfox]

Have written this previously but Billy is a perfect fit for GWS and would probably become a premiership ruckman at that club.

Why?

Dawson Simpson's numbers monster Longer's this year. And he's widely renowned as a mediocre ruckman.

What could Longer possibly offer that he doesn't?

[rodgerfox]

Geelong would be all over Longer and I would think Hawthorn would be interested.

Why?

I try really, really hard to see what Longer brings to the table - but I just can't.


Given he'll be 26yo next year, What would he do at Hawthorn or Geelong that McEvoy or Rhys Stanley don't offer ?

All of their numbers are way, waaaay above Longers.

[rodgerfox]

Geelong would be all over Longer and I would think Hawthorn would be interested.

Yeah potentially. Not sure though on Clarkson he's mentioned before that he thinks hit out's can be a pointless stat sometimes so assume he values around the ground work more. Ben Mcevoy certainly never that good at winning hit outs.

He's beaten badly statistically by McEvoy, Stanley and Dawson Simpson (just 3 average rucks I've picked out based on the current conversation) in the following areas:

Longer McEvoy Stanley Simpson
4 Games 14 10 4
1.8 Kicks Per Game 4.9 6.1 3
3.8 Handballs Per Game 7.3 6.7 6.5
5.5 Disposals Per Game 12.1 12.8 9.5
1 Marks Per Game 3.6 3.1 1.5
0 Goals Per Game 0.3 0.6 0
0 Behinds Per Game 0.3 0.3 0.2
1.5 Tackles Per Game 3.1 3.1 3.2
24.2 Hitouts Per Game 28.8 30.5 30.2
0.8 Inside 50s Per Game 1.1 2.1 0.5
0.2 Goal Assists Per Game 0.3 0.3 0
0.5 Frees For Per Game 1.2 1.6 1.5
1.8 Frees Against Per Game 0.6 1.7 0.2
2.5 Contested Possessions Per Game 6.2 6.4 6.5
3 Uncontested Possessions Per Game 6.1 7 3.8
3.5 Effective Disposals Per Game 9.6 10 7
63.60% Disposal Efficiency % Per Game 79.30% 78.10% 73.70%
2.2 Clangers Per Game 1.2 2.7 0.8
0 Contested Marks Per Game 1.2 0.7 0.2
0 Marks Inside 50 Per Game 0.6 0.7 0
1.5 Clearances Per Game 1.8 3.3 3.8
0 Rebound 50s Per Game 0.8 0.8 0.5
3.2 One Percenters Per Game 4.9 4.9 2.2
0.2 Centre Clearances Per Game 0.9 1.6 1.8
1.2 Stoppage Clearances Per Game 0.9 1.7 2
2 Score Involvements Per Game 4.1 4.6 3.5
41.5 Metres Gained Per Game 74.9 159.7 53.5
0.5 Turnovers Per Game 1.2 2.1 0.2
1 Intercepts Per Game 2.3 2.2 1.8
0 Tackles Inside 50 Per Game 0.3 0.1 0.5


I know that is hard to read....but basically all the 'major' stats such as kicks, marks and hitouts - they absolutely kill him in. And even the 'little things' or the 'crash and bash' stuff that apparently Longer possesses, such as 'Tackles', 'Tackles Inside 50', 'One Percenters', 'Clearances' etc. he's also well behind.


I keep trying, but I just can't see it on Longer. He's a big, lumbering, crash and bash ruckman that doesn't get the ball and doesn't crash and bash anything! He certainly tries, and has a crack at least.

[The_Dud]

I think you’re forgetting about the ‘unmeasurables’ Rodger, like ‘guarding space’ and ‘not crowding our forward line’ which easily elevate Billy to a top 10 ruckman in the league!

If someone wants to give us a 5th round pick for him then we should thank our lucky stars!

[rodgerfox]

Clearances Hitouts Ruckman Result
R1 -17 -19 Longer Win
R2 -2 -32 Longer Loss
R3 -3 -20 Marshall Loss
R4 +13 -8 Hickey Loss
R5 -6 -12 Hickey Draw
R6 -4 -13 Hickey Loss
R7 -6 -4 Hickey Loss
R8 -10 -20 Hickey Loss
R9 -3 -24 Hickey Loss
R10 0 +11 Hickey Loss
R11 +7 -6 Hickey Loss
R12 -12 -2 Hickey Loss
R13 +31 -8 Longer Win
R15 -5 -16 Longer Win


There's no pattern really with either ruckman. We sucked against Brisbane in R1 but won. We were mauled in hitouts and clearances that day. We played 1 good quarter against the Gold Coast and won. We were beaten easily in hitouts - yet absolutely smashed them in clearances.
We were beaten in the ruck against GWS - yet Drew the game.
We were smashed in the ruck against Melbourne yet won.


I think the answer to this debate is - both of our ruckman suck. And it would be absolutely shithouse being an on-baller to either of them! Longer puts on his angry face and has a crack - but gets pushed around by little guys in contests and can't find the ball.
Hickey can find the ball and but doesn't have a crack and seems to tip toe around a bit.

If someone out there was to offer their second string ruckman for either of these two - we'd be mad not to take it in a heart beat.

[stonecold]

No Pattern, really?????

Try wins and losses!!!!!

Honestly?????

[SydneySainter]

No Pattern, really?????

Try wins and losses!!!!!

Honestly?????

So the Dee's won the clearances, almost doubled the centre clearances and Gawn is best on ground, but us winning was the result of Longer just being there?

[stonecold]

No Pattern, really?????

Try wins and losses!!!!!

Honestly?????

So the Dee's won the clearances, almost doubled the centre clearances and Gawn is best on ground, but us winning was the result of Longer just being there?

We lose win Hickey plays, our mids play better with Billy in ruck!!!!!

Simple!!!!!

Hickey has hardly played in a win since 2016, almost 2 season!!!!!

We lose when he is in Ruck, push all the other stats you like, that's the one the matters!!!!!

[samuraisaint]

No Pattern, really?????

Try wins and losses!!!!!

Honestly?????

So the Dee's won the clearances, almost doubled the centre clearances and Gawn is best on ground, but us winning was the result of Longer just being there?

We lose win Hickey plays, our mids play better with Billy in ruck!!!!!

Simple!!!!!

Hickey has hardly played in a win since 2016, almost 2 season!!!!!

We lose when he is in Ruck, push all the other stats you like, that's the one the matters!!!!!

Which ruckman (or ruckmen) played against Richmond at Etihad last year? Honest question - that was one of the most dominant displays by our mids for years against the eventual premiers - I can't remember and can't be bothered checking.

[stonecold]

No Pattern, really?????

Try wins and losses!!!!!

Honestly?????

So the Dee's won the clearances, almost doubled the centre clearances and Gawn is best on ground, but us winning was the result of Longer just being there?

We lose win Hickey plays, our mids play better with Billy in ruck!!!!!

Simple!!!!!

Hickey has hardly played in a win since 2016, almost 2 season!!!!!

We lose when he is in Ruck, push all the other stats you like, that's the one the matters!!!!!

Which ruckman (or ruckmen) played against Richmond at Etihad last year? Honest question - that was one of the most dominant displays by our mids for years against the eventual premiers - I can't remember and can't be bothered checking.

Easy, we won, so the answer is: Billy!!!!!

[rodgerfox]

No Pattern, really?????

Try wins and losses!!!!!

Honestly?????

So the Dee's won the clearances, almost doubled the centre clearances and Gawn is best on ground, but us winning was the result of Longer just being there?

We lose win Hickey plays, our mids play better with Billy in ruck!!!!!

Simple!!!!!

Hickey has hardly played in a win since 2016, almost 2 season!!!!!

We lose when he is in Ruck, push all the other stats you like, that's the one the matters!!!!!

I just did a massive post on the stats comparison between when Longer plays, and when Hickey plays.

I looked at Total Disposals (+ and - the opposotion), Inside 50s, Hitouts, Clearances, Points For and Points Against.


There are no patterns really. There are no real patterns between winning in those areas, and us winning the game.

So I think it's simplistic to think that Longer improves us. I think many other factors explain why we won, and why we don't - and it seems that both our ruckmen are so limited, that it's almost irrelevant which one plays.


The biggest factor is how we enter our F50.

Round Result %I50s Goal
R15 Win 36
R11 Loss 29.2
R1 Win 27.1
R10 Loss 25
R13 Win 19
R9 Loss 18.2
R8 Loss 17.4
R6 Loss 16.7
R7 Loss 16.1
R4 Loss 15.9
R5 Draw 14.9
R3 Loss 13
R12 Loss 12.7
R2 Loss 12.2


As you can see, our wins have directly been linked to efficiency going forward (barring the GWS Draw). Note also that the R10 and R11 games were decent performances against Richmond and West Coast. So basically, if we can go at 19% or higher with Goals per Inside 50 - regardless of who is rucking, we're very competitive.

Worthy of noting, that these figures don't correlate with midfield domination either (ie. Clearances, Disposals, Hitouts etc.).

[rodgerfox]

No Pattern, really?????

Try wins and losses!!!!!

Honestly?????

Way too simplistic.

We could claim that Joyce is the difference, because he has a 100% win ratio. It simply doesn't work like that.

[stonecold]

No Pattern, really?????

Try wins and losses!!!!!

Honestly?????

Way too simplistic.

We could claim that Joyce is the difference, because he has a 100% win ratio. It simply doesn't work like that.

Based on one game?????

Hickledik hasn't played in a St.Kilda win for almost two seasons!!!!!

Sometimes the simple stats say the most obvious Rodger!!!!!