We're on Track

[SydneySainter]

I really hope the OP is right, but I’m extremely doubtful.

There just isn’t enough raw talent in the future core of Billings, Paddy, Acres, Dunstan, Ross, Long, Steele, Membrey, Webster and Gresham to form a very good team and to say that through natural attrition that it will happen in two to three years is wishful thinking.

Although we’re destined to bank a top 3 pick this year draft, our last two picks in the top 5 were used to get Billings and Paddy, both of which we currently WAY overplayed for, so again, it’s niave to assume that our first round pick this time around will automatically bear fruit.

The only way I can realistically see this current list going to the next level is to recruit two ready-made star players and when I say star, I mean elite players, preferably mids. Something this club has tried to do for a while now and has so far failed.

[desertsaint]

i thought two elites may do it - both mids - but we need a good tall forward that can kick goals. a really good one. and if roberton retires we need to find a good replacement.
we have a bunch that can become a good support cast, but none are really putting their hand up as an AA calibre player.

[spert]

I completely agree with the OP. Our list profile is much closer to Brisbane's and Carlton's, which is what our results are proving.

The thing that I'm not sure about is whether Richo can survive another couple of years of "development". Or is Richo gonna be our Mark Neeld??

I heard G Lyon talking about Melbourne's rebuild, and the coach was indentified as one of the problems, so he was let go. In our case, the club blames the players.

[satchmo]

I completely agree with the OP. Our list profile is much closer to Brisbane's and Carlton's, which is what our results are proving.

The thing that I'm not sure about is whether Richo can survive another couple of years of "development". Or is Richo gonna be our Mark Neeld??

I heard G Lyon talking about Melbourne's rebuild, and the coach was indentified as one of the problems, so he was let go. In our case, the club blames the players.

The same G Lyon that endorsed Mark Neeld?

[spert]

Probably the same Lyon, but at least the club had the balls to get rid of the coach who was under performing

[barneyboyz]

That about sums it up for me!

And me

[satchmo]

Probably the same Lyon, but at least the club had the balls to get rid of the coach who was under performing

Yes, and they've done that many times, as has our club. What's the success rate of that action? How many times have they got it right?
They are flying at the moment, but only time will tell if "good stuff" Goodwin is the answer.

It's easy to sack a coach. Finding a better one is a substantial challenge.

[rodgerfox]

So thoughts RF. Yay or nay on Richo?

Very good question.

I flip flop on this.


There's times when I feel like I want to march down to Moorabbin and personally walk him out of his office and chuck all his s*** out on the footpath behind him!

Then there's other times, when I think 'maybe he's onto something'. Maybe having a team being competitive with no real stand out talent is evidence that his method works? Maybe when he does have some talent, when his list matures, it'll all work beautifully?

The specific things that really bother me - are the 'bombing it in' offensive strategy, and the 'pressure' s*** he craps on about all the time. The other thing that worries me, is that we never really look to be playing well. We always look ugly, We always look like when we score, it was almost by accident.

So I do harbor some big concerns about him. The players seem to play for him, in terms of having a crack. So that's 'pleasing'. But is he a good teacher? Not sure. Is he teaching them the wrong stuff? Maybe.


My gut feel is that he's no good and needs to go at the end of this year. But placing him with an untried coach would be unnecessarily risky, unless the club 100% knows Richo is no good. If they do sack him, I'd have no problem with it - as long as he was replaced with an experienced coach.

[rodgerfox]

It's easy to sack a coach. Finding a better one is a substantial challenge.

Agreed.

[chico2001]

Richardson should be gone by years end if not sooner, looks like the worst coach in the AFL. Stands a very slim chance if the saints can win 5/6 in the back end of the season and that will still leave us about 14th. I just cannot see how this club will improve in 2019 with the current list, winning a few this year will give hope but the experienced group dont have the skill set to take us forward. Not going to get one of the top coaches so forget that everybody but may snag a good one sitting in the wings. Each club has about 6 assistant coachs' so that's about 100 to pick from.

[DJ Higgins]

So who replaces Richo as coach is the next question? We need someone who loves a challenge. Clarko you can do it

Starting to get familiar with draftees as I am now focusing on 2019

https://www.afldraftcentral.com.au/2018 ... -may-2018/

Sam Walsh is the front runner for us at the moment but a long way to go

[SydneySainter]

So who replaces Richo as coach is the next question? We need someone who loves a challenge. Clarko you can do it

Starting to get familiar with draftees as I am now focusing on 2019

https://www.afldraftcentral.com.au/2018 ... -may-2018/

Sam Walsh is the front runner for us at the moment but a long way to go

If the coach gets replaced, then surely our recruitment personnel should be under the microscope also. All these first and second round selections and 5 seasons on, not a single A grader. Gresh and to a lesser extent Acres are the only ones that show signs of going to the next level. Billings has been with us for 5 seasons now and he's a purple patch player at best.

After Billings and Paddy, I just don't trust another top 5 pick in the hands of Trout and co, or any first round selection for that matter.

[fugazi]

As much as the OP is a fair argument, we can't fool ourselves where we are.
Paddy wont make it. Huge error.
But there is still hope.
Would live to see Clarko in charge of this list.
We are certainly better than we have been playing.
But without a new coach and some A graders, finals, let alone a flag, are pipedreams.

[saint64]

I think selecting Battle over Paddy this week would be more of an indication we are on track. Looks like Battle played pretty well last week and we must pick players on form alone.

[saintadamski]

I'm loving what I'm reading here
Fugazi, saint64 and Sydney Sainter - all on the money - Finally some clear thinking without the rose coloured glasses.

Paddy and Billings - huge errors...Trout is incompetent and needs to go ASAP
The club needs to acknowledge their mistakes in recruitment and begin to look forward quickly.
Start playing Battle - he has true potential. Gresh and Acres have huge upside, and will flourish with better players around them.
Delist or relegate to VFL for good - Billings, Newnes, Weller, Armitage, Savage, Marshall, Paddy etc - and Geary is no captain.

We can turn this around - but not with Trout Elshaug - he is incompetent, and will continue to make incredibly bad list decisions.

[Crossy66]

A bit hypothetical, but if both these players were getable next year, who would you draft based solely on these stat averages and assuming all other considerations were similar:

Average PG disposals: player A 19.7, Player B 18.6
Average PG marks Player A 4.7 Player B 3.0
Average Goal assists player A .78 player B .77
Average Clangers Player A 1.9 player B 3.15
Average free kicks given away player A 0.25 player B 0.8
average PG brownlow votes Player A .20 player B .04

Average rebound 50's Player A 1.15 Player B .78

[freely]

A bit hypothetical, but if both these players were getable next year, who would you draft based solely on these stat averages and assuming all other considerations were similar:

Average PG disposals: player A 19.7, Player B 18.6
Average PG marks Player A 4.7 Player B 3.0
Average Goal assists player A .78 player B .77
Average Clangers Player A 1.9 player B 3.15
Average free kicks given away player A 0.25 player B 0.8
average PG brownlow votes Player A .20 player B .04

Average rebound 50's Player A 1.15 Player B .78

ok you sucked me in - clearly player A - who is it?

[Crossy66]

A bit hypothetical, but if both these players were getable next year, who would you draft based solely on these stat averages and assuming all other considerations were similar:

Average PG disposals: player A 19.7, Player B 18.6
Average PG marks Player A 4.7 Player B 3.0
Average Goal assists player A .78 player B .77
Average Clangers Player A 1.9 player B 3.15
Average free kicks given away player A 0.25 player B 0.8
average PG brownlow votes Player A .20 player B .04

Average rebound 50's Player A 1.15 Player B .78

ok you sucked me in - clearly player A - who is it?

Thanks for playing

Player A is Jack Billings!
would you like to know who player 2 is?

[saintadamski]

Based purely on stats you would pick player A - but stats alone are useless and purely hypothetical.
In the real world, the very first thing you look at is courage, ferocity, and leadership...you read a player's face, their reactions, and their ability to put in when the chips are down in real pressure situations....then you start looking at stats
Billings for example may have looked good on paper - but it's the real world tests where he fails miserably....

Elshaug has no ability at all to read people, and their potential. He must resign

[saintadamski]

So are you telling me that we recruit player's based purely on stats? If so...we are worse than F***ked

[Flagless]

Ahh what a lovely feel good post, and so many delusional plus ones...let's all hold hands and dream of holding that silverware aloft, rose petals falling all around us.

The actual fact of the matter is that the playing list requires a cleanout and fast.

Geary is no captain, and in most sides wouldn't get a game in the first 22.
Then you have Billings, Savage, Newnes, Sinclair, Lonie, Steele, Weller, Armitage etc....say no more

Anyone that actually believes that this list is capable of taking The St Kilda Football Club to a premiership, or even finals for that matter, is in dire need of medical attention....or at least an eye test.

The rose coloured glasses on so many posters here, seem to see anyone that wears the red white and black as an instant son, to be welcomed into the bosom of our premiership imaginings, and NEVER EVER CRITICISED!

Watch a game, glasses off, and you can see the cold hard truth...Elshaug resign, list cleanout required....and fast.

Spot on, Its delusional to think this list can get us anywhere near a flag. There are far too many players with woeful foot skills but probably more importantly, lack of footy smarts. The only player on the list that I would consider "footy smart "is Gresham, the rest are just triers. Until they clean out the talent identification and recruiting department we will continue to flounder

[Crossy66]

So are you telling me that we recruit player's based purely on stats? If so...we are worse than F***ked

Look i agree, stats only tell part of the picture. But its interesting that the stats quoted reflect output or results in some key measurables. Clearly Billings averages more disposals, takes more marks and coughs the pill up less than player B, who is in fact the muched revered Christian Petracca. The only major difference between them is Petracca has more contested possessions and Billings more uncontested, but thats got a bit to do with the way they are played. Billings is playing badly and returning these numbers... plenty of upside i would think

I think its easy to value what you dont have rather than what you do. I dont think Billings is the quite the bust.

[saintadamski]

Of course you would cough up the pill more often if you were in the thick of the fight like Petracca is....anyone would, when 4 or 5 guys are trying to get the ball off you
The fact that he wins more contested possessions is a huge stat, as Billings can't win a one on one to save his life.
Billings was a huge mistake...from now on, contested possession kings, with hardness and strength.
Until then, we will be eating with a wooden spoon for decades to come.
Trade Billings now while we still have time. Another year of his rubbish will make him un-tradeable.

[Cairnsman]

Paddy is going to be a jet. We need Paddy, Bruce and Members to play out the year together and build a chemistry. Them not being able to play together is arguably the single most reason why our progress has stalled.

Tall forward lines will be back in vogue by seasons end and if West Coast win the flag then Richmond's small forward line will be confirmed for what it always was, a one hit wonder.

Arguably our 3 tall forwards being injured and not being able to play together is what has caused the most instability in the team setup and development.

[Crossy66]

Of course you would cough up the pill more often if you were in the thick of the fight like Petracca is....anyone would, when 4 or 5 guys are trying to get the ball off you
The fact that he wins more contested possessions is a huge stat, as Billings can't win a one on one to save his life.
Billings was a huge mistake...from now on, contested possession kings, with hardness and strength.
Until then, we will be eating with a wooden spoon for decades to come.
Trade Billings now while we still have time. Another year of his rubbish will make him un-tradeable.

Not quite right, Billings averages 6.08 contested possessions pg versus 9.92 petracca - so he can get one to save his life. Also important to have a few outside types in any team. In fact i think we have a couple to many in and under types. Also have a look at the 2013 draft up to our next pick at 18 and with the exception of Bont and perhaps Cripps, he would still go around 4th or fifth (ahead of Boyd)