We're on Track

[rodgerfox]

I think we're on track.

Not the same track that the club spruiked in regards to 'top 4 by 2018' etc. etc., but on track in terms of improving naturally.


People have made two mistakes:

1) Believing the club's blueprint for success
2) Comparing our development to Melbourne's


Melbourne started building back in about 2010. They have added steadily since, and have only come good now. We didn't really get going with our rebuild until 2013.

To be any good, you need good old guys, really good middle age guys, and some good kids. Putting it simply.


In my opinion, we can't expect to be any good, until the Stevens, Ross', Bruces, Carlisles, Hickeys, etc are our old guys. We have such a void in the 'good old guys' space that it renders us useless. We had Dempster, Gilbert, Roo and Joey - now we don't. When we had those guys, we had a huge void in the 'really good middle age guys' space, and no good kids at all.

The way we're building, in 2-3 years these guys will be an outstanding senior core - and Billings, Gresham, Acres, Dunstan, Long, Steele, Marshall, Webster, Goddard, McCartin and co. will be a really good core of middle aged dudes. Coffield, Hunter-Clark and anyone drafted since then (including a top 3 pick this year) will be a really good crop of youngsters.

We will be a very good side in 2 years. Forget this year, we're playing like a team with no good senior players and heaps of injuries. Which guess what? We are.

Next year we will improve, and the year after we'll be really good.

If we can add a ready made player or two on top of this, we will be a very, very good team in 2 years. Bookmark it!

[noddy04]

Great Post Rodger

[saynta]

plus one

[Crossy66]

+1

[R. Harvey 3 votes!]

That about sums it up for me!

[Saintmatt]

I think we're on track.

Not the same track that the club spruiked in regards to 'top 4 by 2018' etc. etc., but on track in terms of improving naturally.


People have made two mistakes:

1) Believing the club's blueprint for success
2) Comparing our development to Melbourne's


Melbourne started building back in about 2010. They have added steadily since, and have only come good now. We didn't really get going with our rebuild until 2013.

To be any good, you need good old guys, really good middle age guys, and some good kids. Putting it simply.


In my opinion, we can't expect to be any good, until the Stevens, Ross', Bruces, Carlisles, Hickeys, etc are our old guys. We have such a void in the 'good old guys' space that it renders us useless. We had Dempster, Gilbert, Roo and Joey - now we don't. When we had those guys, we had a huge void in the 'really good middle age guys' space, and no good kids at all.

The way we're building, in 2-3 years these guys will be an outstanding senior core - and Billings, Gresham, Acres, Dunstan, Long, Steele, Marshall, Webster, Goddard, McCartin and co. will be a really good core of middle aged dudes. Coffield, Hunter-Clark and anyone drafted since then (including a top 3 pick this year) will be a really good crop of youngsters.

We will be a very good side in 2 years. Forget this year, we're playing like a team with no good senior players and heaps of injuries. Which guess what? We are.

Next year we will improve, and the year after we'll be really good.

If we can add a ready made player or two on top of this, we will be a very, very good team in 2 years. Bookmark it!

That's a nice balanced way to look at it. I'd argue however that the Dees started way earlier - they'd drafted Morton, Scully, Gisberts, Trengove et at before 2010. None of them still there - they stuffed that period up worse that we did 2012.

Anyway - the salient point is that the club oversold our capability and we're measuring against that when in fact, we should be instead focussed a little more on the future when our list becomes more balanced (in age range) and hopefully (MUCH) more skilled younger players (i.e. Rice, Sinclair, Coffield and Clarke are already our best field kicks - albeit Sinclair had a couple of horrors against the Tiges)

[dragit]

There are a lot of players on the list currently who won't be there in a couple of years if we are going to be a very, very good side… the question is, how do we replace them with quality?

No need to bookmark this, I'm sure you'll bump it if you're right

[takeaway]

+ another 1

I would add that the loss of the big blonde fella yelling for the ball all over the ground, even when half fit, was substantially underestimated. As well as Joey. We do need 2-3 good pick ups though, as you stated.

[rodgerfox]

There are a lot of players on the list currently who won't be there in a couple of years if we are going to be a very, very good side… the question is, how do we replace them with quality?

Totally.

I think we have 3 or 4 dudes in the ressies that will oivertake them, plus we will add 2-3 draftees over the next two pre-seasons - and hopefully at least 2 ready made players form other clubs.

We should force out 6-8 ordinary guys.


The thing to remember too, is that guys like Geary and Newnes are basically C graders. However, they'd actually be very valuable C graders if they were actually allowed to play C grade roles - as opposed to the A grade roles we're asking of them (through necessity).

[St Chris]

I completely agree with the OP. Our list profile is much closer to Brisbane's and Carlton's, which is what our results are proving.

The thing that I'm not sure about is whether Richo can survive another couple of years of "development". Or is Richo gonna be our Mark Neeld??

[suss]

Cracking post.

I think the board also got free agency and recruitment wrong. They underestimated the number of free agents and GWS / Gold Coast mid-fielders that would be available / willing to come to St Kilda from 2016 onwards. They were key planks in the plan that haven’t played out as expected.

I know we were never in the hunt for Dangerfield or Trelor but had we got guys of their calibre (and that’s clearly what we were aiming for) then maybe the plan would’ve come to fruition.

Things to be hopeful about though ...

[Darth Vader]

Every chance you’re right. Not sure if Richo will survive it though, and still not sure if I want him too.

[6621104]

An interesting slant- but unproven. We are yet to prove we are on track- that the senior group you mention will be the equivalent of those we have lost ( Hickey and Bruce in particular), and that some in the middle tier will become better than GOP's. We all hope that they will - yet Billings and McCartin in particular are still struggling. There is obvious talent but in itself talent is not enough - Jack Watts is clearly talented - but to drive a team to ultimate success you need a little extra. Which of our middle tier have shown that?
Geelong have picked up Stewart, Kelly, Menagola - all overlooked for talent as youngsters who have made themselves into players. We need our group to find a bit of whatever drove those men to persevere - a little of what Jimmy Webster puts out every match!
I am more hopeful for our young group- but that is all you can be when so little has been shown to date.

so- are we on track? To believe so you will have to name the 6 out and out A graders - our Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Roughhead, Rioli, Burgoyne - before the supporting cast roles are filled.

[SaintPav]

Pedantic I know but Melbourne bottomed our in 2008 under Bailey so rebuild started earlier.

They have had a few stop starts.

Not convinced they are the real deal. Time will tell.

[bigred]

I think Roger is actually onto something. A few things are starting to turn IMO.

Obviously this year is completely rooted....

[Scollop]

The only track that I think we're on is the one that is heading for a trainwreck.

We better get off track if we have any hope of making finals in the next 3 years

While our club has had some gradual improvement over the last 3-4 years with younger guys getting games, so too have other teams around us and they have developed their talent better than St Kilda and they have recruited as well as us or better than us. Have a look at a team like Sydney who currently have more that 10 players in the seniors who basically started as rookies.

I heard Terry Wallace on radio this arvo mention something in the vain of 'the whole reason you play and the whole reason for list management and drafting and trading in of players was to eventually win a premiership'. Can't remember his exact words but we are not seeing our team looking likely to challenge for finals anytime soon.

It's not the players fault. It's the job of the admin to put the right people in place and unfortunately our head coach and most of the footy department including the head recruiter have been off track

[skeptic]

Really like the OP but got a question for you RF,

Before I get to that, I should also add that IMO but the board anticipated something like this and that’s why they went ahead and and signed Richo up the extra season as early as they did.
Many forumites anticipated a drop in the post Roo era and generally speaking decision making tends to more sound the less reactive it is.

My question for you RF is: is Richo part of the next tilt?

Whilst stagnation was predictable, few predicted a fall from grace as great as this.
Many forumites here like myself were unsold on Richo even before this season... Bluthy comes to mind, Con G too and I’m sure many others.

For me personally my concerns have centred around Richo’s:
- Conservative nature both in terms of persisting with injured/struggling players but also in terms of how he lines plays the selected players. Acres is still yet to find his way into the centre, Minch has been on a HFF for 5 years etc etc
- Problem solving. 3 years ago the ruck dilemma was Hickey is a decent around the ground utility that can get slaughtered in the centre and Longer is a beast in the middle then goes invisible. 3 years later it’s essentially the same exact dilemma. We have yet to find a way to get 2 rucks in the team and have persevered in destroying Bruce and Acres games by playing them as rucks
- Psychology. Enough has been made of our goal kicking yips. Everybody always looks as the North game this year and the Melb + Ess game last season as examples of when we didn’t turn up... what many forget is that on all 3 occasions the opposition didn’t turn up at the bounce either and that the games were all on the line at 1/2 time. The difference was after 1/2 the opposition got their stuff together and blew us out of the water. I guess m point is I don’t remember a time more recently... pbly since the Bulldogs game where we bounced back.

This season has been sooooo underwhelming we actually just outright don’t look like winning games and it looks as though we ingraining bad habits into players.

So thoughts RF. Yay or nay on Richo?

[nw7]

Yep, very good summary.

[Teflon]

An interesting slant- but unproven. We are yet to prove we are on track- that the senior group you mention will be the equivalent of those we have lost ( Hickey and Bruce in particular), and that some in the middle tier will become better than GOP's. We all hope that they will - yet Billings and McCartin in particular are still struggling. There is obvious talent but in itself talent is not enough - Jack Watts is clearly talented - but to drive a team to ultimate success you need a little extra. Which of our middle tier have shown that?
Geelong have picked up Stewart, Kelly, Menagola - all overlooked for talent as youngsters who have made themselves into players. We need our group to find a bit of whatever drove those men to persevere - a little of what Jimmy Webster puts out every match!
I am more hopeful for our young group- but that is all you can be when so little has been shown to date.

so- are we on track? To believe so you will have to name the 6 out and out A graders - our Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Roughhead, Rioli, Burgoyne - before the supporting cast roles are filled.

Good post
Nothing against op but 5 years ago we were on track too.....the road to 2018 was being born....
It's all "potential" speculation and we may not rise to that dizzy heights level
The OP also assumes development occurs in a linear fashion and that by miracle recruitment pulls out a Judd or 2..... and we somehow attract a gun FA
Not convinced
Richo gone for mine or at a minimum ALL assistants, recruitment and player development overhauled D Sexton finished too

[saintadamski]

Ahh what a lovely feel good post, and so many delusional plus ones...let's all hold hands and dream of holding that silverware aloft, rose petals falling all around us.

The actual fact of the matter is that the playing list requires a cleanout and fast.

Geary is no captain, and in most sides wouldn't get a game in the first 22.
Then you have Billings, Savage, Newnes, Sinclair, Lonie, Steele, Weller, Armitage etc....say no more

Anyone that actually believes that this list is capable of taking The St Kilda Football Club to a premiership, or even finals for that matter, is in dire need of medical attention....or at least an eye test.

The rose coloured glasses on so many posters here, seem to see anyone that wears the red white and black as an instant son, to be welcomed into the bosom of our premiership imaginings, and NEVER EVER CRITICISED!

Watch a game, glasses off, and you can see the cold hard truth...Elshaug resign, list cleanout required....and fast.

[parkeysainter]

Good post.

Fortunes can turn quickly at footy clubs in the space of a couple seasons. I currently think the Saints don't have a bottom 4 list at all. The season has gone to s*** and its not good enough, but the club has to re-align its expectations and where we are really at. It is happening right now.

Some might disagree, but this horrid season might be a blessing in disguise as:
-more youngsters have got a look in due to injury and form
-we have found around 5 new players like Phillips, Long, Rice, etc
-youngish players that have been in the system already have another season under their belt
-we will get a top 5 pick in 2019
-much easier draw now in 2019
-the entire club, its staff and how it operates will have a good review at season's end
-the club will now go harder for A grade talent

[saintadamski]

Good post.

Fortunes can turn quickly at footy clubs in the space of a couple seasons. I currently think the Saints don't have a bottom 4 list at all. The season has gone to s*** and its not good enough, but the club has to re-align its expectations and where we are really at. It is happening right now.

Some might disagree, but this horrid season might be a blessing in disguise as:
-more youngsters have got a look in due to injury and form
-we have found around 5 new players like Phillips, Long, Rice, etc
-youngish players that have been in the system already have another season under their belt
-we will get a top 5 pick in 2019
-much easier draw now in 2019
-the entire club, its staff and how it operates will have a good review at season's end
-the club will now go harder for A grade talent

Yep keep that positive energy coming

- We never found new players - they were always there but never given a go...as we have incredible senior talent like Weller and Billings....lmao
- Youngster like Rowan Marshall....ooooh excited about him....lmao
- Yep top 5 pick....like Billings or McCartin? ...lmao
- Easier draw....crap list will lose no matter what the draw
- Good review....is that the new term for firing Tony Elshaug on his arse?
- A grade talent.....um If I was an A grader, I'd come no where near this basket case.....not until a list clean out

[parkeysainter]

Good post.

Fortunes can turn quickly at footy clubs in the space of a couple seasons. I currently think the Saints don't have a bottom 4 list at all. The season has gone to s*** and its not good enough, but the club has to re-align its expectations and where we are really at. It is happening right now.

Some might disagree, but this horrid season might be a blessing in disguise as:
-more youngsters have got a look in due to injury and form
-we have found around 5 new players like Phillips, Long, Rice, etc
-youngish players that have been in the system already have another season under their belt
-we will get a top 5 pick in 2019
-much easier draw now in 2019
-the entire club, its staff and how it operates will have a good review at season's end
-the club will now go harder for A grade talent

Yep keep that positive energy coming

- We never found new players - they were always there but never given a go...as we have incredible senior talent like Weller and Billings....lmao
- Youngster like Rowan Marshall....ooooh excited about him....lmao
- Yep top 5 pick....like Billings or McCartin? ...lmao
- Easier draw....crap list will lose no matter what the draw
- Good review....is that the new term for firing Tony Elshaug on his arse?
- A grade talent.....um If I was an A grader, I'd come no where near this basket case.....not until a list clean out

So they should just roll over and give up? Why even bother existing then?
Its much easier like anything in life to have such an attitude. Each to their own I guess. Some put up a fight and try fix things, others run and hide, and give up.

[saintadamski]

Good post.

Fortunes can turn quickly at footy clubs in the space of a couple seasons. I currently think the Saints don't have a bottom 4 list at all. The season has gone to s*** and its not good enough, but the club has to re-align its expectations and where we are really at. It is happening right now.

Some might disagree, but this horrid season might be a blessing in disguise as:
-more youngsters have got a look in due to injury and form
-we have found around 5 new players like Phillips, Long, Rice, etc
-youngish players that have been in the system already have another season under their belt
-we will get a top 5 pick in 2019
-much easier draw now in 2019
-the entire club, its staff and how it operates will have a good review at season's end
-the club will now go harder for A grade talent

Yep keep that positive energy coming

- We never found new players - they were always there but never given a go...as we have incredible senior talent like Weller and Billings....lmao
- Youngster like Rowan Marshall....ooooh excited about him....lmao
- Yep top 5 pick....like Billings or McCartin? ...lmao
- Easier draw....crap list will lose no matter what the draw
- Good review....is that the new term for firing Tony Elshaug on his arse?
- A grade talent.....um If I was an A grader, I'd come no where near this basket case.....not until a list clean out

So they should just roll over and give up? Why even bother existing then?
Its much easier like anything in life to have such an attitude. Each to their own I guess. Some put up a fight and try fix things, others run and hide, and give up.

Do I for a second sound like I'm giving up?!
On the contrary, like you I'm not living in a fairyland....living in a dream is worse than giving up...it's delusional!

Action points for change and a new direction:
1. Fire Tony Elshaug (recruting manager) AND NOW!
2. Delist or relegate to VFL...Sinclair, Savage, Newnes, Billings, Lonie, Weller, Armitage etc etc
3. Start recruiting Fierce competitors and future leaders - true soldiers who will fight tooth and nail to tackle and win the ball. (Newnes 4 tackles in 7 games of football - a nice little stat for you)
4. Use our top pick in 2019 for a gun midfielder, who is fierce and competitive...no health conditions, and no wet rags like Billings.
5. Recruit some natural leaders and make one captain
6. Fire Tony Elshaug again for good measure

How's that for a lovely start?...no surrendering here - just a change of mindset , and an understanding that our list is flawed.

[parkeysainter]

Good post.

Fortunes can turn quickly at footy clubs in the space of a couple seasons. I currently think the Saints don't have a bottom 4 list at all. The season has gone to s*** and its not good enough, but the club has to re-align its expectations and where we are really at. It is happening right now.

Some might disagree, but this horrid season might be a blessing in disguise as:
-more youngsters have got a look in due to injury and form
-we have found around 5 new players like Phillips, Long, Rice, etc
-youngish players that have been in the system already have another season under their belt
-we will get a top 5 pick in 2019
-much easier draw now in 2019
-the entire club, its staff and how it operates will have a good review at season's end
-the club will now go harder for A grade talent

Yep keep that positive energy coming

- We never found new players - they were always there but never given a go...as we have incredible senior talent like Weller and Billings....lmao
- Youngster like Rowan Marshall....ooooh excited about him....lmao
- Yep top 5 pick....like Billings or McCartin? ...lmao
- Easier draw....crap list will lose no matter what the draw
- Good review....is that the new term for firing Tony Elshaug on his arse?
- A grade talent.....um If I was an A grader, I'd come no where near this basket case.....not until a list clean out

So they should just roll over and give up? Why even bother existing then?
Its much easier like anything in life to have such an attitude. Each to their own I guess. Some put up a fight and try fix things, others run and hide, and give up.

Do I for a second sound like I'm giving up?!
On the contrary, like you I'm not living in a fairyland....living in a dream is worse than giving up...it's delusional!

Action points for change and a new direction:
1. Fire Tony Elshaug (recruting manager) AND NOW!
2. Delist or relegate to VFL...Sinclair, Savage, Newnes, Billings, Lonie, Weller, Armitage etc etc
3. Start recruiting Fierce competitors and future leaders - true soldiers who will fight tooth and nail to tackle and win the ball. (Newnes 4 tackles in 7 games of football - a nice little stat for you)
4. Use our top pick in 2019 for a gun midfielder, who is fierce and competitive...no health conditions, and no wet rags like Billings.
5. Recruit some natural leaders and make one captain
6. Fire Tony Elshaug again for good measure

How's that for a lovely start?...no surrendering here - just a change of mindset , and an understanding that our list is flawed.

No fairyland here. The club does need to make big changes and it can't keep going the way it is, but the old wheel...she can turn slowly to success.

1) Not sure if he is the problem
2) Disagree on several of those players you listed
3) Agree
4) Agree with 1st part
5) Agree
6) Same as 1

Anyway, throwing in the towell and being negative doesn't help compared to at least wanting to try something different.