Jaxons views on draft

[samoht]

So with our picks 7 and 8, it sounds like we will be selecting a couple of players with question marks next to their names (for one reason or the other), which we'll be hoping to turn into exclamation marks.

[SemperFidelis]

Thanks for posting Jaxons. Much appreciated.

[magnifisaint]

Maybe Con is right. It sounds like if Coffield is available Saints will pounce.

[kosifantutti]

Interesting insight. What impact does the heart condition have?

When was the last time a team without heart won a premiership.

2017

They had Royce Hart.

[magnifisaint]

Interesting insight. What impact does the heart condition have?

When was the last time a team without heart won a premiership.

2017

They had Royce Hart.

Fantastic player polar opposite as coach

[Linton Lodger]

Apparantly Stephenson and Boner are not going top 10 anymore and more like a late 1st rounder. That is the whisper out there due to their injuries and/or condition.

I personally don't want to take anyone with some concerns regarding their body, injuries and conditions.

Don’t know that outside of us, Bonar was ever really top 10...

I’ve been on holidays the last week... and sick at home unfortunately for most of it so have done a lot of reading.

Outside of his link to us, IMO most rate Bonar as #15-20 pick and this is largely due to less information available due to injury in the past... or to put it another, whilst his best has on occasion been amazing, he’s produced considerably less of it than most.

The risk isn’t injury... ppl generally don’t know how good he is compared to others. He could be a flash in the pan.

Stephenson on the other hand is a genuine talent... rated by many as the best mid in the draft, even now there’s an odd post suggesting he’s number one, many suggesting he’s top 5, even more linking him to us.
He’s seems to have the best outside game with a lot inconsistent feedback on his disposal... some say it’s elite, others say inconsistent.

W/O a shadow of a doubt the most fluctuating player in terms of status on the board.

My opinion... he’s seems to consistently play good to excellent football as a mid and is considered a match winner because of his leap.

I’d take him

If he is the best midfielder in the draft and he is cleared by medicos, we've got to take him if he slides.

[Proph3t of egan]

I agree with the OP regarding playing it too safe.
The two resources we have in spades are HB Flankers and Inside Mids.
We have little to no x factor: Billings and Gresham maybe?

I think 1 safe bet and 1 risk

Clark and Stephenson

I don't understand this logic at all.
Don't you just go for the two u actually think will be the best?
Coffield is the fastest of the lot and would probably be the fastest bloke on our list.
He is exactly what we need.
A quick outside mid who can kick.

Coffield isn't an outside mid, he is a running defender with potential to play mid

[Marching]

Jaxons - you’re close to te action mate.

We can only post in forums to each other.

I want you to inspire the list management team to back themselves and not be afraid of failure.

Please do whatever you can to inspire these guys to dare to be great as a list management team and trust their gut and believe in themselves.

You’re our only hope.

Don’t say you don’t understand this position. Do what ever you can in your power to influence it.

PLEASE!!

[dragit]

cleared by medicos

trout don't need no medicos… the most important thing is: how nice is his family?

[cwrcyn]

We got Seb Ross right, we got Jack Newnes right, we got Jade Gresham right, we got Jimmy Webster right, we did pretty well with Dunstan and Acres. Brandon White will be a player. McCartin will be a fine player. The picks we've traded recently have netted us Carlisle, Steele, Stevens, Roberton, Membrey, Longer, and we've got two handy rookie elevations in Weller and Sinclair..

The way some people carry on here, it's as if Tony Elshaug gets it wrong every time. Have a little bit of faith.

[skeptic]

Here’s something I found on BF - went second in the mock draft there. FYI, we ended up with Brayshaw as the slider and Coffield

Pick 2 Fremantle - Jaidyn Stephenson (189cm, 75kg midfielder/forward from Eastern Ranges/Vic Metro)

I first saw Stephenson as a 16 year old playing for Eastern Ranges in the TAC Cup back in 2015, and it was immediately evident he was special. Two years out from the draft, and he was their best player in the Grand Final with 3 goals. And he finished off his 2016 with as good a month as you'll see, with 13 goals coming from his last four matches. It was over a year ago that I had him earmarked as the #1 player in this draft. And as far as I'm concerned, he's only gotten better.

Up until this year, Stephenson played almost exclusively as a forward. Often as the deepest forward. And it's hard to argue with the success he had, averaging over two goals a game. He was, and I think will remain to be, an impossible match up. Outside of Alex Rance, there won't be many who could go with him in the air, on the lead and on the ground. I saw the AFL website compared Stephenson to Jeremy Cameron, and it's not bad actually. He doesn't have the size obviously and he won't be a key forward, but he has a similar body type with long arms that just grab the ball. And he's always active. He's a near elite contested mark for his size, but just as adept when the ball is on the ground. In the TAC Cup, Stephenson would often play behind his man using his leap and wing span to beat them to the ball. Obviously plucking the ball from a contest wont always work at AFL level, but it just shows that he's never out of a contest.

Defensively, his chasing pressure is as good as anyone. He ran a sub 3 second 20m sprint, and he's one of those players who actually plays at that speed too. It's not just straight line on an athletic track speed. Whether he has the ball in hand or chasing down an opponent, his running is almost fanatical. Could be forgiven for mistaking him with Jayden Hunt.

If you were to look at the stats alone, you'd think Stephenson had a down year going from 23 goals to only 14 goals in 15 matches. But what he's done, is transform himself from third tall forward to genuine midfielder. He did start a little slowly as he made the move up the ground, but that changed at the U18 Championships against South Australia when he finished with 28 disposals and 5 goals. It was easily the best individual performance of the Championships, and it propelled him forward from there. And like in 2016, his last 6 weeks in the TAC Cup were excellent - one 39 disposal game, and he finished the season with almost half of the his disposals being contested. One thing I've always rated highly, is when a skinny player can win the contested ball. If you're 10kg heavier than everyone, it's easy to crash and bash your way through. But when you're only 75kg, it shows a natural ability and football smarts. Fremantle fans will remember that with Nathan Fyfe and Stephen Hill, could see the potential early and for it to be filled once they put on muscle.

So I think I've now said Stephenson is a mixture of Jeremy Cameron, Jayden Hunt, Nathan Fyfe and Stephen Hill. That would make him quite a player. But why isn't he the clear #1 prospect of all time then? Well coming into the year, there were three main knocks on him - midfield ability, consistency and kicking. He well and truly answered the first two, and for me he finished the year as the best performing midfielder in the draft. And I suppose there is always a question about whether the skinny kids can bulk up enough, but most seem to do it well.

His kicking though is still a work in progress. Interestingly, put a set of goals in front of him and there isn't a problem. I've also found that when he kicks through the ball, again there isn't much of a problem there. But it's on the short and medium kicks that he can lack a bit of touch and doesn't always judge the distance quite right. And also when he's flat footed, on the run isn't too bad. I do think it's improved over the past couple of years, and with some tightening of his technique it should improve even further.

Ultimately, I think this draft has some really good talent in the top 10. But few game winners. And that's exactly what Jaidyn Stephenson is, up forward or through the midfield. He's also a big game player. Whether it was the TAC Cup GF back in 2015, or being best afield in the U18 All Stars game. Check out giantroo's highlight video of that game here, I think it's a good summary of everything I've said.


Well, I rate Stephenson as the #1 prospect in the draft. So that alone should explain it. I can take him here, making sure I don't miss out if Carlton or North Melbourne were to take him at #3 or #4 (which I don't expect they would have). But I'll still being able to get another top midfielder in Dow or Cerra at #5 anyway. See, I have a plan.

[Drake Huggins]

The coach is keen on Coffield I'm told. Brayshaw for me, although he's rocketed up the ranks recently to the point that some have him at number 1. I'd be rapt if we got those two.

[takeaway]

Might be a bit of ducks and drakes going on, but apparently the full results of Stephenson's heart tests won't be known until after the draft, so a number of clubs have backed away a bit, including the Saints.

Not worth the risk for a low pick.?

He may well slide into the teens, be interesting to see.

[the dome]

cwrcyn makes a good point that the club brought in Seb Ross, Jack Newnes, Jade Gresham & Jimmy Webster.
We can feel ok atm regarding Dunstan & Acres/both have more improvement in them and are capable I believe of maintaining the steady curve of improvement in 2018 & beyond. Witnessing genuine improvement again in 2018 would be very encouraging for these two & the rest of us no doubt. Brandon White has a fair few supporters while a good number of us see some good qualities in young McCartin that should see him taking the next step sometime soon. The fact that our club has managed to trade in Carlisle, Steele, Stevens, Roberton, Membrey, & Longer is telling me that the club does have enough understanding of what good players look like.
I personally feel good about my initial impression of Seb Ross when I first saw him on the club website/ @ a St.Kilda guernsey receiving event
I thought this guy looks like one serious & committed young guy aiming high. Now when I notice Seb in the thick of things I think one thing - reliable. Seb's 2017 was a big encouragement for myself as was our bringing in of Jack Steele, Jack Sinclair & the Gresh.
I suspect the club really does back itself to keep on bringing in very good players & adding to the growing chemistry that will take us back up the ladder.
I'm tending to agree with those who are encouraging our recruiters to bite the bullet & pick a player or players with that 'X' factor that could potentially fill out our team very nicely indeed.

Good Luck Tomorrow Sainters

[Gershwin]

Ricky Nixon says:
"On the confidential ratings system I’ve used for 25 years Jaidyn Stephenson is 5th of first 20"

[Gordo']

oh ffs!!! it's not flowering rocket science!!! jaxon's has given us all a good clue. need more help, ffs? ok.

want to avoid a dud? flowering easy. don't pick any small lightly framed soft&@#k drummer types.

want to pick up someone who will be a flowering star? look for the blokes who 'have all the flowering tools' but have been set back by an untimely injury.

got it??? ok, now go back through the lists, and whom we need to get will be flowering obvious.

[takeaway]

oh ffs!!! it's not flowering rocket science!!! jaxon's has given us all a good clue. need more help, ffs? ok.

want to avoid a dud? flowering easy. don't pick any small lightly framed soft&@#k drummer types.

want to pick up someone who will be a flowering star? look for the blokes who 'have all the flowering tools' but have been set back by an untimely injury.

got it??? ok, now go back through the lists, and whom we need to get will be flowering obvious.

Please explain?

[damienc]

My inbox is inundated with PM's asking my view, so this goes out to all who have asked.
My personal view is I would take Stephenson and Bonar, two players with X factor, that could be the two best in the draft.
We have heaps of soldiers on our list and need match winners.
I know the club is frightened given McCarten and Freeman of taking a risk on Bonar with his knee history and Stephenson with his heart condition.
My view they are going to compound a past mistake on Paddy and Freeman even further by playing it safe and not taking these two.
I feel we will play it safe and get Clark and Coffield, two more soldiers, and both are more half back flankers than midfielders.
We have 15 half back flankers on our list so I cannot understand this position.
Bonar and Stephenson may turn out to be the two best players in this years draft in my opinion, we need to be brave.

I am sorry Jaxons but I have to slightly disagree with your post.

St Kilda's draft selections are going to be dictated by who is available at 7 & 8. Courage or lack of it is very unlikely to be a factor. However, if Stephenson is available at 7 or 8 and we don't take him, then yes, I agree it could be a decision we will regret.

But if we don't have choice and Stephenson has already been taken then we are getting two good potentials in Clark and Coffield.

I think, if you don't mind me saying so, you are being a little churlish is describing them as just foot soldiers. I think you are doing both a disservice. They are more than that.

Clark averaged 26 disposals per week in the TAC. He is a player who has a great skill set. For a start he can kick equally well on both feet with good disposal but needs to improve his kicking under pressure.

Coffield is fast and slick with good vision and excellent disposal. Yes both have been defenders but towards the end of the season they both proved their worth in the midfield.

I think we will definitely take Coffield. He's been on our radar for some time. I really hope we have a bit of courage and go for the X factor with Stephenson. We've taken on players with medical issues in the past, why wouldn't we again? Especially if our medicos found no compelling reasons not to take Stephenson and that is my understanding, reading the tea leaves.

I also think you were rough on both Paddy and Freeman. Both were unlucky with injury. Paddy used his time away from footy to work on his aerobic skills. It paid off with a PB in the 3 Km time trial. Let's see how both boys go in 2018 before consigning them to the scrap heap of selection history.

I would hope that as a club we would roll the dice and take an X factor punt with one of our picks. The only reason we might not will be because there is some other undisclosed medical issue that only the club knows about with both players.

Let's see what happens tomorrow night.

[skeptic]

I tell you this much, am ready for this to be over. Am tired of speculating.

[fugazi]

I agree with the OP regarding playing it too safe.
The two resources we have in spades are HB Flankers and Inside Mids.
We have little to no x factor: Billings and Gresham maybe?

I think 1 safe bet and 1 risk

Clark and Stephenson

I don't understand this logic at all.
Don't you just go for the two u actually think will be the best?
Coffield is the fastest of the lot and would probably be the fastest bloke on our list.
He is exactly what we need.
A quick outside mid who can kick.

The logic is that neither Clark nor Coffield are primarily midfielders.....they are both HBF with doubts on their capacity to go in the guts.

The redeeming quality is that they both have good skills....but do we need 2 blokes who are primarily HBF.

I would prefer Stephenson to one of them....otherwise we are building a team of flanker and utilities.

[Gershwin]

NICHOLAS COFFIELD
Versatile player who can play in defence, through the midfield or up forward. Showed excellent breakaway speed from down back throughout the NAB AFL U18 Championships and as a good one-on-one contest player and strong overhead, won All Australian honours. His 2.91 seconds for 20m at the Draft Combine showcased his speed.
HUNTER CLARK
A graduate of the NAB AFL Academy who is a poised and smooth-moving medium defender or midfielder who uses the ball well by hand and foot. An elite ball handler and strong overhead, played well for Vic Country in the NAB AFL U18 Championships. Won the Stingrays' best and fairest award to top off great year having averaged 27 disposals for the club at TAC Cup level.

I think both can play in the midfield and are not just HBF's.

[vacuous space]

Clark isn't any more a HBF than Stephenson is a HFF. Both were used on the outside at the carnival and both played more midfield for their TAC clubs. Clark was the better of the two. 26.7 disposals; 13.5 contested; 6.2 clearances and 6.6 tackes per game for Clark versus 23.2 disposals; 10.5 contested; 3.2 clearances and 5.5 tackles per game for Stephenson. Clark kicked 11 goals in 13 games and Stephenson kicked 14 goals in 15 games. At the very least, Clark over Stephenson is defensible on form.

Coffield spent more time outside, but that's in part because he's the best kick in the draft. Dismissing him as a flanker is incredibly reductive. Coffield had 30 contested possessions for the carnival. LDU had 31. Cerra had 34. Clark had 22. Stephenson had 17. Coffield looked composed under pressure. He moves well in traffic and makes good decisions. I don't see any reason why he couldn't play more midfield at the next level, except Richo might prefer him on the outside too. I don't believe there's any suggestion that his tank is deficient. His yo-yo test was 21.2. Stephenson's was 21.8.

I don't think passing on Stephenson is a big deal. He's around about the mark if we think he's healthy. His best was pretty good. His worst was pretty bad. 14 touches against WA; 10 touches against VC; 12 against the Allies. Not exactly awe inspiring. I think it's incredibly optimistic to assume the 28 touch, 5 goal Stephenson is the one that's going to show up in the AFL. He didn't show up at any other point this year. I'll take consistent performers and elite kicks over X-factor any day.

[CQ SAINT]

Clark isn't any more a HBF than Stephenson is a HFF. Both were used on the outside at the carnival and both played more midfield for their TAC clubs. Clark was the better of the two. 26.7 disposals; 13.5 contested; 6.2 clearances and 6.6 tackes per game for Clark versus 23.2 disposals; 10.5 contested; 3.2 clearances and 5.5 tackles per game for Stephenson. Clark kicked 11 goals in 13 games and Stephenson kicked 14 goals in 15 games. At the very least, Clark over Stephenson is defensible on form.

Coffield spent more time outside, but that's in part because he's the best kick in the draft. Dismissing him as a flanker is incredibly reductive. Coffield had 30 contested possessions for the carnival. LDU had 31. Cerra had 34. Clark had 22. Stephenson had 17. Coffield looked composed under pressure. He moves well in traffic and makes good decisions. I don't see any reason why he couldn't play more midfield at the next level, except Richo might prefer him on the outside too. I don't believe there's any suggestion that his tank is deficient. His yo-yo test was 21.2. Stephenson's was 21.8.

I don't think passing on Stephenson is a big deal. He's around about the mark if we think he's healthy. His best was pretty good. His worst was pretty bad. 14 touches against WA; 10 touches against VC; 12 against the Allies. Not exactly awe inspiring. I think it's incredibly optimistic to assume the 28 touch, 5 goal Stephenson is the one that's going to show up in the AFL. He didn't show up at any other point this year. I'll take consistent performers and elite kicks over X-factor any day.

Great post.

[fugazi]

Let's just hope we don't try to pull some smart ar$e move.
If we get two of those in the predicted range, we have a couple of very good prospects.

[MCG-Unit]

Interesting insight. What impact does the heart condition have?

When was the last time a team without heart won a premiership.

2017

2016 maybe