How's that great deal looking now?

[skeptic]

If I buy a car for an absolute bargain price, but after a few kilometres it breaks down and needs repairs costing more than I paid for it, does that mean the original deal was still a bargain, or is it now a terrible deal because of the ultimate outcome ? The end result determines the value of the deal and whether or not it was worth doing.

that's not a like for like comparison...

the deal and what we pick with the deal are two different parts of the program.

SO let's say Carlton pick Shuan Burgoyne ahead of Luke Livingston... you're saying the exact same trade (Hamil for 4) is now a better deal because they used it better.
If I trade Jade Gresham away for pick #99, that would be a fantastic trade for us as long as we recruit the next Chris Judd at 99?!

Doesn't make sense

[GregPackhamsHeadband]

Surely the overall outcome is the measure. Acquiring the picks is only the first part of the deal. Surely what you do with it and how that turns out allows us to assess that deal. Your version is an incomplete proposition. As I said, if I buy my house for half the market value, then that looks like a steal. If it turns out the foundations are stuffed and I have to fork out a fortune to fix it, then surely my deal then turns out to be a bad one. The complete picture of any deal is how it should be judged. Last October our deal looked very good. All I'm saying is it may turn out that way, but that depends on what we do with it. We're only halfway there. Capiche? Otherwise, let's just agree to disagree.

[takeaway]

If I buy a car for an absolute bargain price, but after a few kilometres it breaks down and needs repairs costing more than I paid for it, does that mean the original deal was still a bargain, or is it now a terrible deal because of the ultimate outcome ? The end result determines the value of the deal and whether or not it was worth doing.

I think the car has been driven up the wrong road. Anyway, as part of the car deal we got 2 bonus motorbikes, which can be used while the car is fixed, or sold to help buy another car.

The deal has improved over last year in that we have pick 7 instead of the expected pick around 12, plus the two motorbikes. We are now in a stronger position in the draft/trade, and that augers well for the upcoming drat period, and may even help next year.
The end result is that we are in a much stronger position, so it was a great deal. What we do with our position is another issue entirely, and going by recent history, I am sure it will be a good outcome. We may even trade the pick for a future pick, so to relate the deal directly to who we draft/trade (or not trade in), doesn't make sense.

[desertsaint]

the deal we made and what we then do with it are two seperate things greg...band.
if i decide to buy a lottery ticket and i win a million, then it was a rather fortutious decision.
if i then blow that million on a house that i forget to insure it and it collapses in a sinkhole then not insuring it was a very poor decision.

[Mr Magic]

The deal looks better/worse depending on the poster's own perspective.
If he/she liked the deal initially then he/she will look at it in its most favourable light.
If he/she didn't like the deal initially then he/she will look at it in the least favourable light.

I tend to look at the 'unbiased' commentary at the time the deal was done and it was almost universally accepted that we got a great deal.

As for the comparisons with houses and cars, surely that is a furphy?
We may use the pick for a Josh Kelly and what if he has a career ending injury in his first game for us? - that doesn't mean the deal was no good - only that he/we were unlucky with injury.

[dragit]

The trade for picks is a different discussion to our draft selections.

If you can turn a first and fourth rounder into an earlier first and 2 x second rounders, that deal is fantastic, you do it every single time.

I would melt harder than Chernobyl if we'd dropped pick ten on a bloke with known debilitating knee problems, who then can barely get on the park and then when he did averaged 6 kicks per game.

As far as drafting goes, we've actually been pretty good in the past five years… baring in mind that all clubs have failures, even in the first 2 rounds. McCartin & Goddard have a lot to do though to be fair.

[CQ SAINT]

I really wish we had've landed Kelly (UNLESS he breaks down next year) but if we had've we may never have had the pleasure and privilege of reading this dribble. (which of course COULD turnout to be one of the most brilliant propositions ever posted on this site). ☺
Nevertheless, at this point of the deal, at least it provires a little distraction until trade week and the draft.

[Vazelos]

There are 2 parts to this:

1. The Trade
2. The Execution

The trade was brilliant, everyone in football acknowledges that so you cant argue against this.

The Execution is still a 'work in progress' but of course the big 3 deciding to stay at their respective clubs has possibly changed 2018 forecast but we dont know yet.

Long, I agree after being 'bullish" about him initially I am a "little' concerned that we paid too high a pick for him.

The general consensus was we went a bit early & talking to a rival Club recruiter who told me we may have got overly influenced by his VFL form last year as his stats indicate he struggles to get his hand on it enough at times.

I still think he could become a good player, he is tough and ruthless in the tackle, he may end up a half back flanker as thats where he has plaed also.

I feel pretty confident we found a player in Battle, 193cm elite runner with a straight kick is an exciting prospect.

Now to the trade time & draft, statistics tell you 1 in 2 picks get dusted in the top 20 & the recruiters would know that.

My gut feel, and ofcourse I have no idea what they are thinking, they will trade 1 pick for a good player like Stringer and keep 1 for the best available mid fielder.

Both have risk attached, Stringer is a young man seperated with 2 Children so his mental state is a mess but things dont last forever.

[The_President]

There are 2 parts to this:

1. The Trade
2. The Execution

The trade was brilliant, everyone in football acknowledges that so you cant argue against this.

The Execution is still a 'work in progress' but of course the big 3 deciding to stay at their respective clubs has possibly changed 2018 forecast but we dont know yet.

Long, I agree after being 'bullish" about him initially I am a "little' concerned that we paid too high a pick for him.

The general consensus was we went a bit early & talking to a rival Club recruiter who told me we may have got overly influenced by his VFL form last year as his stats indicate he struggles to get his hand on it enough at times.

I still think he could become a good player, he is tough and ruthless in the tackle, he may end up a half back flanker as thats where he has plaed also.

I feel pretty confident we found a player in Battle, 193cm elite runner with a straight kick is an exciting prospect.

Now to the trade time & draft, statistics tell you 1 in 2 picks get dusted in the top 20 & the recruiters would know that.

My gut feel, and ofcourse I have no idea what they are thinking, they will trade 1 pick for a good player like Stringer and keep 1 for the best available mid fielder.

Both have risk attached, Stringer is a young man seperated with 2 Children so his mental state is a mess but things dont last forever.

Battle gets me excited.
Good size
Good hands
Good shot

but most importantly for a young key forward, seems like the type of man that loves the spotlight & would thrive having a shot after the siren etc.

Much to like

[Impatient Sainter]

There are 2 parts to this:

1. The Trade
2. The Execution

The trade was brilliant, everyone in football acknowledges that so you cant argue against this.

The Execution is still a 'work in progress' but of course the big 3 deciding to stay at their respective clubs has possibly changed 2018 forecast but we dont know yet.

Long, I agree after being 'bullish" about him initially I am a "little' concerned that we paid too high a pick for him.

The general consensus was we went a bit early & talking to a rival Club recruiter who told me we may have got overly influenced by his VFL form last year as his stats indicate he struggles to get his hand on it enough at times.

I still think he could become a good player, he is tough and ruthless in the tackle, he may end up a half back flanker as thats where he has plaed also.

I feel pretty confident we found a player in Battle, 193cm elite runner with a straight kick is an exciting prospect.

Now to the trade time & draft, statistics tell you 1 in 2 picks get dusted in the top 20 & the recruiters would know that.

My gut feel, and ofcourse I have no idea what they are thinking, they will trade 1 pick for a good player like Stringer and keep 1 for the best available mid fielder.

Both have risk attached, Stringer is a young man seperated with 2 Children so his mental state is a mess but things dont last forever.

If we bring in Stringer - where does Battle play?

[fugazi]

Agree with Battle being an exciting prospect.
He slipped to us much later than most phantom drafts anticipated.
Some had him around 15-20.

I'm leaning to going to the draft with 7 and 8.
Developing the list we have as well as possible.
Hunting an elite FA next year.

Now Roo, Monty and Dempster are gone, it really is the Brave New World for the Saints.

If we can't land a huge fish, then let's not try to make something from nothing just so it looks like we're being proactive.

Use our picks, get the best coaches in to support the list and have a crack with a fresh list.

[kosifantutti]

If I buy a car for an absolute bargain price, but after a few kilometres it breaks down and needs repairs costing more than I paid for it, does that mean the original deal was still a bargain, or is it now a terrible deal because of the ultimate outcome ? The end result determines the value of the deal and whether or not it was worth doing.

Do you care whether the dealer put all the money on the Washington Generals or invested in stocks that took off? O'Meara and Florent are not relevant to the discussion.

[skeptic]

So if I find a way to trade Mav Weller for all of the top 5 draft picks this year... yes picks 1 to five and we draft 5 duds and Weller goes on to play 40 mediocre games for whoever and gets cut, you would say that's a bad trade?

IMO it's flawed logic to measure the trade based on the outcome because the outcome is based on information not readily available at the time the deal is made... you can only make decisions based on the information you have available at the time.

Anyway, I guess we understand each other's perspective and will have to agree to disagree

[saintspremiers]

Good post.

I'm very confident Long is a dud. Got no good vibes as yet from him.

Lol at Elshyte - exactly what he is!

[ausfatcat]

If its too early to tell, why raise it? On face value, it is one of the most one sided deals ever achieved. End of story.

Not yet it's not. What if we blow the two picks? Get a Kane Tenace and a Barry Brooks for example? The whole outcome depends on what we do with the pick 7 we acquired. Jury out on Long and Battle. The point I made was not that the deal was a mistake, but that we won't know it's real value until much later. If we end up missing out on a traded in gun, then our plan has backfired, or won't be fulfilled as intended. That's a partial fail already. I thought the idea was to get the extra first rounder to throw at a Kelly, Whitfield, Hopper type. Now it looks as though even the less preferred options of Stringer and Rockliff are off the table. Is all that so really so hard to understand?

What?

[Con Gorozidis]

We have two top 10 picks.
This is a HUGE opportunity.
We should be excited about this.
The club needs to invest in resources to make sure we get it right.

All I see on here is panic and desperation to give our picks away from some mediocre player from other clubs.

[suss]

I'm starting to like the idea of trading these picks up to a higher pick. The footage of Raynar on YouTube gets me excited and gets us over the problem of bringing in elite talent, even if it takes 2-3 years for the kid to develop.

Also I'm starting to think that we won't land a big name player no matter how much money we offer. If swapping our pick and the hawthorn pick gives us the next dusty, I'd probably do it.

[Unforgiven]

Stars dont go to small market teams, it's just the reality.

The only way we can get stars is to draft and develop them.

Our next flag will be built through the draft, not big ticket free agent signings or trades (I don't believe it's an option for us).

[GregPackhamsHeadband]

You are right, unforgiven. They don't want to come to us. That is a sad reality.