2018- Heaven or Hell?

[saintsRrising]

If one is brutally honest there are very few players on our list that other AFL Clubs would be keen to have.

Our list management team have built a team of mainly average players, and despite indicating that good disposal skills would addressed, the club has on average taken players with only so-so disposal skills.

Individually you can take many of our players and say yes he can be a first 22 player. But as a group we lack ball skills, we lack footy smarts and in particular lack that in the midfield engine room. As a group we have a lot of average players. Importantly our list management team having been losing elites and very good players way faster than they are being replaced and have not yet gained one elite player (yes Billings and Carlisle are threatening).

That individual rating has probably in recent years had many of us rating our list higher than we should have.

So this coming draft and trade period will probably make or break us as we have way too many depth players, and way too few genuinely good players, let alone elites (which based on this years delivered form we have none of).

OUT: With Roo and most likely Joey both gone that is a step down in quality.

THE 2017 WALLFLOWERS:

Our list is so dire that if two of the following "spectators" in terms of 2017 senior football do not step up to be capable good regulars then even gaining Kelly will do little.
Paddy
Freeman
Goddard. And the games that he did play I am not sure he was exhibiting the athleticism that a modern key position player needs
One could add Armo. However most lists always seem to have a player or two out.

And that we need our wallflowers to bloom just to become reasonable makes me very, very nervous.

Now yes we have some youngsters that may get better, and should get better. ie Billings, Gresham, Steele. But all clubs do, and we just seem to have less very good young talent than we should and moreso for a club that has been rebuilding as long as we have been. And yes if Billings and Gresham can both improve their goal conversion rate that will help

Our 2017 First Pick: Will it land Kelly ? And certainty there, and with the players that may possibly move clubs is there anyone apart from him and Martin (who will stay a Tiger) that would make an appreciable difference in 2018? I think not.

If Kelly does not choose us, then with the Hawks and us both not likely finish bottom 6 we will not have access to cream of the 2017 kids. Yes we may get two reasonable picks, but a list lacking top end talent like ours that is not likely to be enough, and in 2018 will make little difference.

LIST MANAGEMENT TEAM:

The Saints have been beating the drum for a while about creating a huge war-chest to land some guns and that this was all part of the plan fora flag by 2020. Well the time is now, and unless a genuinely good gun or two is landed in this trade period I genuinely fear for the competitive future of the Saints over the next several seasons. So hopefully Bains and Co can deliver on all the hype. If not then the rebuild will in essence have to start again.

Without landing a gun out too this year then Bain and Co have to be marked as failing. Even if Kelly is gained they are still under-performing. At first it was looking promising. However way too many players cannot get past the promising stage, the maybe stage, the potential stage. Rising star nominations are few. Young players to come in and look good are few.

Now no list management team gets all their picks right. However our current team seem to have no capacity to acquire players where some are elite. The continued strategy of swapping for more players and picks has also not been fruitful. YES it has acquired lots of handy or depth players, but while quantity has been there quality has not. Now it was ok to build depth for a while, but you will never be a Top 4 Team without a pool of Top End Talent, and that we now desperately lack. Picking up average players will at the end of the day only deliver an average team at best.

Moreso when they have been lucky to get both Robbo and Membrey. And with Bruce remember he was taken as a key defender where he was only so so, before becoming a quite good key forward (who if he did not have the yips when on the run within 20m of goal would be rated more highly).

What makes our position more dire is that we let players like BJ and Dal go on the promise of the future being more important than the then present. Our compensation from that has gained us little.

So this coming draft and trade period is as I see it make or break time for Bain and Elshaugh and through them the Saints. They need to nail it AND offield we need to get our wallflowers into the seniors in 2018 and have them playing well.

Will it be Heaven or Hell in 2018? I think that by end of November we will have a good idea.

[longtimesaint]

The other serious problem we have is in list management.
If you look at the players that have been contracted and need to be contracted the following comes to light:
We need to re-sign Billings,Roberton,Gilbert and Savage.
We need to have three picks in the national draft and it would be beneficial to upgrade rookies Marshall and O'Kearney, which means we need to de-list 5 players.
Dempster and Roo are retiring and Holmes will be de-listed.
Joey will probably retire but his form this year may have been worth another year if we had more flexibility.
Because Pierce, Minchington and Wright are contracted for next year and beyond, we will be forced to de-list Lonie or else risk losing Marshall or O'Kearney.
Lonie still has more upside than any of the three contracted players mentioned but we appear to have little alternative.

[saintsRrising]

That Billings and Robbo have not re-signed makes me nervoos as they are both two of the very few players that we have that other clubs would covet.

Some of the players that Bains signed onto long-terms deal such as Pierce based, on so little delivered form, was odd and has mad the ability to juggle who stays and goesa lot harder than it needed to be.

While Joey played well enough to stay in 2018, the bungling of list management means that he will have to retire. However with the way our list is we will not be a power in 2018 anyway and so best that he retires so that White, Rice and others can get a crack for the sake of our future development.


The club clearly favours Longer, and so will try and trade Hickey. But Hickeys trade value will be less than it would have been at the end on last season.

[WellardSaint]

The fact that we
-monstered Hawks for the first time in years
-Beat GF favs the Giants
-Belted Tigers (in first half anyway)
sends a very distorted message to the coaching group
that their "game plan" (don't laugh) is a winning one.
They are deluded.
Pressure and effort are paramount. Shooting at goal in a hectic random manner, in the hope that a goal will occur,
is like the medieval soldiers using catapults at an enemy castle. Just massive volume, big numbers, and you end up hitting something.

How stupid is that.
So they just want grunt players that can bring pressure, and if one or two players are accurate, that's a bonus.

2018, they will just look for players that can bring pressure and effort- that's "Saints Footy"
If these guys are untidy and messy, it matters not.
As long as those 6 people in the coaches box, on their laptops, can show high volume of "pressure points"
that's all that matters.

"8 goals 16"?
Moses rubs the cheek and drones in monotone
"Look, the effort was pleasing, we were strong at the contest, we had strong connect from back to forward"
(Moses neglects to mention that there was a disconnect between the brain and the foot when kicking,
so as soon as we went forward, the bloody ball came right back with interest)

So we will win less than this year.

You can bookmark this post, see if I'm proven right.

[saintsRrising]

The fact that we
-monstered Hawks for the first time in years
-Beat GF favs the Giants
-Belted Tigers (in first half anyway)
sends a very distorted message to the coaching group
that their "game plan" (don't laugh) is a winning one.
They are deluded.
Pressure and effort are paramount. Shooting at goal in a hectic random manner, in the hope that a goal will occur,
is like the medieval soldiers using catapults at an enemy castle. Just massive volume, big numbers, and you end up hitting something.

How stupid is that.
So they just want grunt players that can bring pressure, and if one or two players are accurate, that's a bonus.

2018, they will just look for players that can bring pressure and effort- that's "Saints Footy"
If these guys are untidy and messy, it matters not.
As long as those 6 people in the coaches box, on their laptops, can show high volume of "pressure points"
that's all that matters.

"8 goals 16"?
Moses rubs the cheek and drones in monotone
"Look, the effort was pleasing, we were strong at the contest, we had strong connect from back to forward"
(Moses neglects to mention that there was a disconnect between the brain and the foot when kicking,
so as soon as we went forward, the bloody ball came right back with interest)

So we will win less than this year.

You can bookmark this post, see if I'm proven right.

Gameplan is another whole very relevant can of fish. As is coaching.

In this thread I was mainly however looking at our list and list management.


But yes what we now need are players that can deliver skilled, classy and effective play. We have ample foot soldiers now. We now need the guns, and without these type we will not go up the ladder. The players we have play on average well when the opposition does not apply pressure. When they do then the average to poor skills of the bulk of our players are exposed.

[Grrrrr]

That Billings and Robbo have not re-signed makes me nervoos as they are both two of the very few players that we have that other clubs would covet.

Some of the players that Bains signed onto long-terms deal such as Pierce based, on so little delivered form, was odd and has mad the ability to juggle who stays and goesa lot harder than it needed to be.

While Joey played well enough to stay in 2018, the bungling of list management means that he will have to retire. However with the way our list is we will not be a power in 2018 anyway and so best that he retires so that White, Rice and others can get a crack for the sake of our future development.


The club clearly favours Longer, and so will try and trade Hickey. But Hickeys trade value will be less than it would have been at the end on last season.

Billings has apparently signed on for 3 more years, announcement to be made before round 23.

[Proph3t of egan]

The fact that we
-monstered Hawks for the first time in years
-Beat GF favs the Giants
-Belted Tigers (in first half anyway)
sends a very distorted message to the coaching group
that their "game plan" (don't laugh) is a winning one.
They are deluded.
Pressure and effort are paramount. Shooting at goal in a hectic random manner, in the hope that a goal will occur,
is like the medieval soldiers using catapults at an enemy castle. Just massive volume, big numbers, and you end up hitting something.

How stupid is that.
So they just want grunt players that can bring pressure, and if one or two players are accurate, that's a bonus.

2018, they will just look for players that can bring pressure and effort- that's "Saints Footy"
If these guys are untidy and messy, it matters not.
As long as those 6 people in the coaches box, on their laptops, can show high volume of "pressure points"
that's all that matters.

"8 goals 16"?
Moses rubs the cheek and drones in monotone
"Look, the effort was pleasing, we were strong at the contest, we had strong connect from back to forward"
(Moses neglects to mention that there was a disconnect between the brain and the foot when kicking,
so as soon as we went forward, the bloody ball came right back with interest)

So we will win less than this year.

You can bookmark this post, see if I'm proven right.

You're right, we all imagined that we beat the hawks tigers and gws,

[thejiggingsaint]

I'm planning for............. HEAVEN!

[longtimesaint]

I'm planning for............. HEAVEN!

On Earth you mean I hope!

[meher baba]

If we can re-sign Billings and Roberton (I'm less worried about Gilbo and Savage)...

and

if we can recruit Kelly or, alternatively, two or three players who, while not potential superstars, are above average (ie, Carlisle-standard)...

and

if we stick with our coach and our game plan...

and

(always highly important) we have a reasonable run with injuries...

then I reckon we can make a PF or better next year.

I reckon that's as close to AFL heaven as you can plan for. In most years, 2-3 teams that make the PF stage are capable of winning the flag and it all depends on how things turn out on the day.

But I'm a glass half full sort of a guy.

[Crossy66]

I expect if we stay on course with the master plan, we will play in a prelim in 2018, 2019 and 2020
The next draft period is crucial though, just need to land the top end talent in the midfield

[saintsRrising]

Billings has apparently signed on for 3 more years, announcement to be made before round 23.

He will I hope, but people have claimed he the deal was done for ages. First it was deal's down but manger just has to get back from overseas.....then manager returns..

So when it is announced that both he and Robbo have signed, then my nervousness will vanish.

[dragit]

I'm tipping a smidge more purgatory.

[chook23]

Nutshell....we have one player rated in afl top 50.. (this year...champion data..2017)

we need more class...simple

[Legendary]

Nutshell....we have one player rated in afl top 50.. (this year...champion data..2017)

we need more class...simple

Spot on.

Anything else is tinkering at the margins. We need cream.

[older saint]

The other serious problem we have is in list management.
If you look at the players that have been contracted and need to be contracted the following comes to light:
We need to re-sign Billings,Roberton,Gilbert and Savage.
We need to have three picks in the national draft and it would be beneficial to upgrade rookies Marshall and O'Kearney, which means we need to de-list 5 players.
Dempster and Roo are retiring and Holmes will be de-listed.
Joey will probably retire but his form this year may have been worth another year if we had more flexibility.
Because Pierce, Minchington and Wright are contracted for next year and beyond, we will be forced to de-list Lonie or else risk losing Marshall or O'Kearney.
Lonie still has more upside than any of the three contracted players mentioned but we appear to have little alternative.

DOnt think that contracts will save them. Contracted players can be traded or will be paid out if not good enough. We apparently have significant cap space so paying out a Pierce, or Mingington will not break the bank

[longtimesaint]

The other serious problem we have is in list management.
If you look at the players that have been contracted and need to be contracted the following comes to light:
We need to re-sign Billings,Roberton,Gilbert and Savage.
We need to have three picks in the national draft and it would be beneficial to upgrade rookies Marshall and O'Kearney, which means we need to de-list 5 players.
Dempster and Roo are retiring and Holmes will be de-listed.
Joey will probably retire but his form this year may have been worth another year if we had more flexibility.
Because Pierce, Minchington and Wright are contracted for next year and beyond, we will be forced to de-list Lonie or else risk losing Marshall or O'Kearney.
Lonie still has more upside than any of the three contracted players mentioned but we appear to have little alternative.

DOnt think that contracts will save them. Contracted players can be traded or will be paid out if not good enough. We apparently have significant cap space so paying out a Pierce, or Mingington will not break the bank

I still think this is poor list management if we have to pay out players that are not on the list anymore both for wasting the money and losing salary cap for nothing.
We may need the cap space if we tempt Kelly or another free agent.

[maverick]

This is a fantastically balanced op well done srr.
Whilst I am fearful you are right I think there is more upside in a fair few of them.
Carlisle is definitely A grade as is Steven and Roberton..
Billings is nearly there and I think Membrey, Newnes, Steele and Ross are just about there too.
Gresham, Sinclair, white, Webster, paddy, battle, and acres need more exposed form but could well be.
Mckenzie is a worry, still hope
Bruce, Dunstan, longer, savage, Weller, Stevens and Goddard are all solid role players
Armo, Gilbert, brown and geary are solid b players not far from the end
Freeman, rice, long, nok, coughlan and Marshall need to be seen but there is hope
I think minchington, Lonie, pierce, wright and possibly hickey are done

We definitely need at least one and maybe two elite guns, especially a leader.
We lacked leadership in the first quarter Sunday.
Kelly is a must.

[thejiggingsaint]

Planning for heaven! ( on Earth! )

[Proph3t of egan]

Nutshell....we have one player rated in afl top 50.. (this year...champion data..2017)

we need more class...simple

We also have the best winger in the competition in Sinclair, while Roberton isn't even top 15 for general defenders this year so take those ratings how you will, I've always seen them a crock of s***

[thejiggingsaint]

Nutshell....we have one player rated in afl top 50.. (this year...champion data..2017)

we need more class...simple

We also have the best winger in the competition in Sinclair, while Roberton isn't even top 15 for general defenders this year so take those ratings how you will, I've always seen them a crock of s***

Amen!

[Jacks Back]

Planning for heaven! ( on Earth! )

Ooh
Ooh, I want to find a better place
Ooh
Ooh, I'm searching for a better place

Ooh
Ooh, I'm tired of living in the sand
Ooh
Ooh, I'm searching for a better land

Heaven, must be there-ere
Well, it's just got to be there-ere
I've never, never seen Eden
I don't wanna ...............

[saintsRrising]

This is a fantastically balanced op well done srr.
Whilst I am fearful you are right I think there is more upside in a fair few of them.
Carlisle is definitely A grade as is Steven and Roberton..
Billings is nearly there and I think Membrey, Newnes, Steele and Ross are just about there too.
Gresham, Sinclair, white, Webster, paddy, battle, and acres need more exposed form but could well be.
Mckenzie is a worry, still hope
Bruce, Dunstan, longer, savage, Weller, Stevens and Goddard are all solid role players
Armo, Gilbert, brown and geary are solid b players not far from the end
Freeman, rice, long, nok, coughlan and Marshall need to be seen but there is hope
I think minchington, Lonie, pierce, wright and possibly hickey are done

We definitely need at least one and maybe two elite guns, especially a leader.
We lacked leadership in the first quarter Sunday.
Kelly is a must.

I agree there is hope. But one elite player such as Kelly will not be enough to provide the bridge we need. Some MAY come from what we have, but I think the harsh reality is that we do not have what we need as yet. Yes I can see some really blooming. Membrey as deadly HF and Gresham as a small forward come mid...and yes other such as one of my favourites in Sinclair. But time is now pressing and we need to see a lot more from our potentials in 2018.

Landing Kelly could apart from his own talents help to spike some of those players along. Dangerfield certainly helped no end to re-invigorate the Cats who have a lot of yeh-na players, but that elite core at the top helps to elevate the whole team. I think we need more than Kelly, and our coaches and players need more than a huge kick up the bum.

As I have indicated in the OP Bain and the list management team need to nail the coming period. We can an go forward in 2018, but we could so easily fall backwards. I personally see the Saints teetering at present. Just more of the same will see us fall off the football cliff.

Quality, not more quantity is what we need now. But that quality cannot be just the one player.

Offield I think that I will also be bitterly disappointed if there is not a reworking of our assistant coaches.

[Zed]

Our recruiters have done a pitiful job over the last 5 years.

Next year is the year that the 2014 draft class enter their 4th year of AFL and should be the players emerging as our next generation of regular players ie Paddy, Goddard McKenzie Lonie. Seriously the only one who looks like establishing himself is Lonie - and boy, he has some major flaws in his game that need to be worked out. With respect to Paddy, if he can stop knocking himself out, he should become a regular now tha Roo will be gone, but not the guy who is going to be BOG anytime soon.

[Jacks Back]

With Roo out last week not putting another tall forward in to the line up and going only with Bruce (and Membrey as a tallish forward) was ridiculous. With McCartin out Marshall or Battle should have played for structure purposes as we missed that extra tall target.