Dear paddy bashers

[mr six o'clock]

All the BS from some people on this forum and from the media in general on paddy ,its time to give it a rest this year .
Have a go at the ten previous number 1s.
2013 boyd . Got a flag but done sweet fa else
2012 Whitfield. Top 20-40 player
2011patton. Top 30-40 player
2010 swallow. Who?
2009 scully. Top 50+
2008 watts. Dud for years now probably inside top50
2007 kreuzer. Only took 8 yrs to shake off injury. Now inside top 100
2006 gibbs. Inside top 60 .
2005 murphy. Inside top 75.
2004 deledio. Top 30 for a long time , but last 3 years nowhere.
So these are the ten before paddy . None of which have been in the best five players in any particular year . Some may be in the future.
Lets give paddy a few more years before we send him packing.

[Sainternist]

+1, Sixer!

I'm still confident Paddy will come good. Will be funny to see all the Paddy-bashers jump back on the Paddy-wagon when he does.

I pity da fools!

[saintspremiers]

Let's face facts. Paddy is way behind where we expected him to be. As a result, regardless of what Roo wants, the Roo issue is very much live in large part due to Paddy

[Johnny Member]

Let's face facts. Paddy is way behind where we expected him to be. As a result, regardless of what Roo wants, the Roo issue is very much live in large part due to Paddy

A fact is it?


Disagree.


Concussion aside, McCartin is pretty much exactly where I thought he'd be.

He's developing really well.

[meher baba]

The main point that list illustrates is that people get too hung up about the significance of draft picks. All you get with an early draft pick is raw talent. If you get more early draft picks over a period of time, you get more raw talent. But the talent needs to develop and meld with your existing team. The stats show that, even with #1 picks, it's a hit and miss proposition at best.

GWS and the Suns are packed full of raw talent. But the Swans, who, over the past two decades, have had fewer early draft picks than any other club, are a better team than either (and, IMO, they are easily the best team in the comp). They draft the best quality players they can get each year and then focus on developing them into contributors to their team. Our club now appears to be taking a similar approach.

As I have posted before, players like McCartin should not be branded with the number of their draft pick. Now he's at the club he's just another player. He might make it, or he might fail and Marshall or Battle might get there: wither way, it's effectively the same result for the club.

[carn_sainter]

Previous number one picks have nothing to do with Paddy McCartin.

The OP misses this point by insisting on a comparison to other number one picks. meher baba nails it thus:

As I have posted before, players like McCartin should not be branded with the number of their draft pick. Now he's at the club he's just another player. He might make it, or he might fail and Marshall or Battle might get there: wither way, it's effectively the same result for the club.

McCartin is young, but not developing at a fast or convincing rate and has not yet made an impact on our team. Like a lot of players. He has not yet made a return on his spot on the list
but is worth persisting with.

[Linton Lodger]

The main point that list illustrates is that people get too hung up about the significance of draft picks. All you get with an early draft pick is raw talent. If you get more early draft picks over a period of time, you get more raw talent. But the talent needs to develop and meld with your existing team. The stats show that, even with #1 picks, it's a hit and miss proposition at best.

GWS and the Suns are packed full of raw talent. But the Swans, who, over the past two decades, have had fewer early draft picks than any other club, are a better team than either (and, IMO, they are easily the best team in the comp). They draft the best quality players they can get each year and then focus on developing them into contributors to their team. Our club now appears to be taking a similar approach.

As I have posted before, players like McCartin should not be branded with the number of their draft pick. Now he's at the club he's just another player. He might make it, or he might fail and Marshall or Battle might get there: wither way, it's effectively the same result for the club.

There are plenty on here lamenting our use of the No.1 on Paddy despite the fact that its way too early to determine where Paddy's potential will take him. They hammer our recruiters, yet theres no celebration of the fact that we got Gresham at 17; Acres at 18; Sinclair in the Rookie draft; Membrey for four fifths of bugger all; Sebastian Ross at 25 and Jimmy Webster at 29.

[fugazi]

Fair point made by OP
It is difficult not to be impatient with Paddy though.
Not his fault, but he suffers from the inevitable comparison with Petracca who the majority of the forumites, not to mention media and other club list managers, thought we would take.
Good luck to the kid, I will try and curb my tendency to criticize him.
If he's staying he is part of our future and is owed our support.

[Johnny Member]

The main point that list illustrates is that people get too hung up about the significance of draft picks. All you get with an early draft pick is raw talent. If you get more early draft picks over a period of time, you get more raw talent. But the talent needs to develop and meld with your existing team. The stats show that, even with #1 picks, it's a hit and miss proposition at best.

GWS and the Suns are packed full of raw talent. But the Swans, who, over the past two decades, have had fewer early draft picks than any other club, are a better team than either (and, IMO, they are easily the best team in the comp). They draft the best quality players they can get each year and then focus on developing them into contributors to their team. Our club now appears to be taking a similar approach.

As I have posted before, players like McCartin should not be branded with the number of their draft pick. Now he's at the club he's just another player. He might make it, or he might fail and Marshall or Battle might get there: wither way, it's effectively the same result for the club.

I tend to agree.

Definitely not about the Sydney bit though, that's rubbish.
Sydney have had a free hit with the salary cap and COLA. This netted them guys like Paul Williams, Barry Hall, Tony Lockett, Paul Roos, Darren Jolly, Tippett, Franklin and many more. They also have the Academy now which gives them free hits at guys like Isaac Heeney and Callum Mills.

It's worth noting that the only other club that was given salary cap allowances won 3 flags until it was taken off them.


But a bad example aside, I agree with the development of players bit. Obviously it is critical. It is why I don't really buy into the whole 'we could have had the Bont instead of Billings' type of debate. The Bont at the Bulldogs under Beveridge and all the other Assistants there, may be a totally different player and person to what he may have been at the Saints under Richardson and our Assistants. He may have better? But he may not have been. We may have taken a slower approach with him maybe? Who knows? There may have been a 'role' at our club that an older guy was holding down which meant the Bont didn't get a chance and his confidence was sapped as he ran around in the 2s each week? He may have latched onto a bloke at our club that didn't work hard enough, and picked up bad habits?

The variables of how a guy develops at different clubs is vast. There are so many things that can affect the development of a player.


As for McCartin though, he doesn't choose where he's picked. So any concerns with the choice, need to be directed at the club. However having said that, this is the list of previous Number 1 Picks:


John Hutton
Drew Banfield
Darren Gaspar
Jeff White
Clive Waterhouse
Michael Gardiner
Travis Johnstone
Des Headland
Josh Fraser
Nick Riewoldt
Luke Hodge
Brendon Goddard
Adam Cooney
Brett Deledio
Marc Murphy
Bryce Gibbs
Matthew Kreuzer
Jack Watts
Tom Scully
David Swallow
Jonathon Patton
Lachie Whitfield
Tom Boyd
Paddy McCartin
Jacob Weitering
Andrew McGrath


Not that flash really, is it? 5 Premiership players out of 26. 1 Brownlow Medalist.

So I'm not really sure what people expect? I'd say realistically, only Hodge and Reiwoldt are utter standouts. There's plenty of good players there, some really good ones and some ordinary ones.

So the odds are high of getting a decent player at number 1. I think fans are within their rights to expect that.
The odds are pretty good of getting a really good player at number 1.
The odds are quite low of getting a superstar.
The odds a really slim of getting a freak.

The other thing that stands out, is that most of these guys didn't come good immediately. Almost all bar about 3 or 4 took about 5-6 years or more before they really arrived as top shelf players.


I think McCartin looks really, really good to me. And I think his progress (injury aside of course) is spot on.

[Johnny Member]

Fair point made by OP
It is difficult not to be impatient with Paddy though.
Not his fault, but he suffers from the inevitable comparison with Petracca who the majority of the forumites, not to mention media and other club list managers, thought we would take.
Good luck to the kid, I will try and curb my tendency to criticize him.
If he's staying he is part of our future and is owed our support.

Don't agree.

I don't really see what the fuss is about Petracca to be honest. He looks good, but I certainly don't see enough to think it's a no brainer that the Saints made a mistake in letting him at number 2.

To put some perspective on it, Melbourne has a midfield of Viney, Jones, Lewis, Salem, Oliver, Vince and a couple of others that go through there. As a young midfielder coming into the AFL, I think it's fair to say that that is pretty much the ideal way to ease into the game. Getting the 5th best opposition midfielder? If he plays forward, they have Hogan, McDonald, Garlett and Watts who the opposition send their best 4 defenders to.

So I think Petracca has had it very easy in terms of his introduction to the AFL, compared to McCartin who has guys like Rance and Heath Grundy playing on him.


I think McCartin has more upside. And I think his output has been underrated by many.



Also, if you do a quick Google search, you'll find that almost every single 'expert' had us taking McCartin at number 1.

[saintsRrising]

GWS and the Suns are packed full of raw talent. But the Swans, who, over the past two decades, have had fewer early draft picks than any other club, are a better team than either (and, IMO, they are easily the best team in the comp). They draft the best quality players they can get each year and then focus on developing them into contributors to their team.

.

While I agree that the Swans have drafted very well, there is also no doubt in my mind that they have recently been HUGELY assisted by the Academy Rort which has allowed them to bring in elite youth in Mills and Heeney by being able to access top end draft talent.

Being allowed to scoop up players who should have been early picks by a team in the top half of the ladder is a huge advantage.

The Swans have also been bold in getting players to the club to complete their team. The Saints need to emulate that this season by snagging Kelly.

[saintsRrising]

Paddy I am confident will still come good. How good though, remains to be seen. But I am sure that he can at least play at a level that will provide good value to the team.

My understanding is that part of his problem is that managing his diabetes has been a lot more difficult that the Club and Paddy thought that it would be. But this will be overcome. But it does mean that it is taking longer to build the body and tank that Paddy needs to have to succeed in the AFL, but that this will come.

Paddy's many concussions has just added to this. I am not sure that Paddy has yet mentally accepted that he needs to play smarter to minimises his chances of receiving future concussions. Coaches obviously need to drive this home.



I think also that people need to remember that not all drafts are equal, and that 2014 was a weaker year for top end talent than many other drafts.

[SemperFidelis]

I also see in this morning's Hun that KJazz from the Suns (the unpronounceable surname drafted at 5 after Bont, the year before Paddy) is being rested for the balance of the season because of lingering effects of concussion.

This approach is becoming more and more prevalent as the medical profession learns more about the long term effects of concussion.

10 years ago, possibly even 5, Paddy would have been straight back into the team (and possibly straight back onto the field). I think some of us (me, certainly) may have been comparing his resilience against an outdated standard.

[ace]

All the BS from some people on this forum and from the media in general on paddy ,its time to give it a rest this year .
Have a go at the ten previous number 1s.
2013 boyd . Got a flag but done sweet fa else
2012 Whitfield. Top 20-40 player
2011patton. Top 30-40 player
2010 swallow. Who?
2009 scully. Top 50+
2008 watts. Dud for years now probably inside top50
2007 kreuzer. Only took 8 yrs to shake off injury. Now inside top 100
2006 gibbs. Inside top 60 .
2005 murphy. Inside top 75.
2004 deledio. Top 30 for a long time , but last 3 years nowhere.
So these are the ten before paddy . None of which have been in the best five players in any particular year . Some may be in the future.
Lets give paddy a few more years before we send him packing.

You left out
2000 nick riewoldt could play a bit, once rated best in the comp
2001 judd could play a bit, once rated best in the comp, umps liked him enough to give him 2 brownlows
2002 brendon goddard could also play a bit
2003 adam cooney could play a bit, umps liked him enough to give him a brownlow
2014 Paddy got concussed so often and needed so long to recover he was forced to quit the game in 2017

Note Carlton got three cracks at No1 all a result of their cheating.
Original post ignores these facts
1st draft pick for 2009 compromised by only the top 2/3 by age of normal cohort being available in the draft, bottom 1/3 by age of cohort had to wait util following year.
1st draft pick for 2010 compromised by 12 kids from top 1/3 of normal cohort missing having been previously taken by Gold Coast priority access.
1st draft pick for 2011 compromised by 10 kids from top 1/3 of normal cohort missing having been previously taken by Greater Western Sydney priority access.
1st draft pick for 2012 compromised by 2 kids from top 1/3 of by age of normal cohort missing sold in the mini draft year before.
!st draft pick for 2013 compromised by 2 kids from top 1/3 of by age of normal cohort missing sold in the mini draft year before.
1st pick in 2014 was uncompromised

[parkeysainter]

Keep Paddy.

He's only in his 3rd year.
Supporters need to take a look at Ross, Stevens, Armitage, etc. It can take 4-6 years for a player to come on, especially a big young kid (which is still what he is).

[samoht]

Paddy will eventually settle the argument, one way or the other.

Anyway, we need quality, running midfielders more so than forwards - Paddy is not holding us back.

[White Winmar]

I agree with the general theme of the Post, but I don't think the Sydney example isn't the best for reasons JM pointed out about COLA etc. I think Geelong and Hawthorn are better examples. Built their lists patiently and have managed their lists well with clever trading and the key to it all, player development. This is where I believe we are behind the best in the comp. our young players have all shown good signs, but only Ross, Newnes and lately, Billings have progressed significantly. Gresham is simply a gun in the making. Maybe it's time to refresh the ranks of our development coaches and a couple of the assistants.

It's interesting that the players we've traded in have been the major reason for our recent improvement. Is it only experience or maturity, or did they have better coaching early on? The draft will always be a bit of a lottery, because the majority of players picked are in their teens. It's a bit like trying to predict who will succeed in life, at the end of high school. Some fulfill their potential, others surprisingly fail, others unexpectedly succeed. There are so many confounding variables, it's all about probabilities and risk management. Given that only 10 % of players end up playing 200 or more games, (which is the rough, industry benchmark for a successful pick), you can see the odds aren't great. Of course, the higher the pick, the better the odds. I haven't seen a full analysis of the draft overall (I feel a research paper coming on) but it would be interesting to see a breakdown of the figures over the past 30 years.

As for Paddy, I haven't given up, but he obviously needs some luck from here on in. I believe he should wear a helmet from now on, despite what some experts say. It certainly can't hurt and might give some confidence, even if subconsciously. Given his appalling run with injuries, it's not surprising his development has stalled. I just hope with all my might he doesn't get a severe head knock in the next 18 months or so. If he can get a decent run at stringing together a significant number of senior games, then I think we'll see he has the makings of a very good player. What's the most number of senior games he's played consecutively? Does anyone know? I doubt it would be more than 6. That's poison for a young bloke, especially one carrying the burden of great expectations.

[White Winmar]

I also see in this morning's Hun that KJazz from the Suns (the unpronounceable surname drafted at 5 after Bont, the year before Paddy) is being rested for the balance of the season because of lingering effects of concussion.

This approach is becoming more and more prevalent as the medical profession learns more about the long term effects of concussion.

10 years ago, possibly even 5, Paddy would have been straight back into the team (and possibly straight back onto the field). I think some of us (me, certainly) may have been comparing his resilience against an outdated standard.

Spot on, SF. Not so long ago, players were left on the field with concussion, played with concussion and ignored the early warning signs of potentially permanent damage. We are learning so much more everyday about the issue, especially in relation to diabetics. Even five years ago, Paddy's career may have already been over from more knocks and repeatedly playing while not fully recovered. The club's ultra cautious approach is correct. As I've stated before, I'd do what the GC has done with KJ and put Paddy in cotton wool for the year. Put him in the rehab gym, get him a running coach, build his endurance and have him set for a flying start for 2018. All under the supervision of an endocrinologist, of course.

[ace]

Paddy will eventually settle the argument, one way or the other.

Anyway, we need quality, running midfielders more so than forwards - Paddy is not holding us back.

Correct,
Yet another recruiting blunder will hold us back once Paddy's concussion issues (amplified by type 1 diabetes) force his early retirement.

[Bruce G McAbee]

I don't bash Paddy, but I am concerned about his succession of concussions that very much threaten to end his career before it gets a chance to start. I would say that if he gets another one in the next 12 months it will be over. The real shame is in that 1st quarter against Richmond last year where he comprehensively beat the best defender in the comp Rance a few times, it has been down hill. Breaking his collar bone was the worst thing that could have happened to him.

[Bruce G McAbee]

I don't bash Paddy, but I am concerned about his succession of concussions that very much threaten to end his career before it gets a chance to start. I would say that if he gets another one in the next 12 months it will be over. The real shame is in that 1st quarter against Richmond last year where he comprehensively beat the best defender in the comp Rance a few times, it has been down hill. Breaking his collar bone was the worst thing that could have happened to him.

[SaintWodonga]

Apparently he's on the plane to Sydney, even though he's not an emergency.

[loris]

I also see in this morning's Hun that KJazz from the Suns (the unpronounceable surname drafted at 5 after Bont, the year before Paddy) is being rested for the balance of the season because of lingering effects of concussion.

This approach is becoming more and more prevalent as the medical profession learns more about the long term effects of concussion.

10 years ago, possibly even 5, Paddy would have been straight back into the team (and possibly straight back onto the field). I think some of us (me, certainly) may have been comparing his resilience against an outdated standard.

Yes, SF there has been no outcry that KJ won't make as he's had multiple concussions.

Another player is Angus Bradshaw, of the Demons.

I was reading an article about him some weeks back. He only got back to full training last week of June or early July this year. He played 2 games, then out with concussion, returned via VFL & concussion again, and hasn't played since round 6 because of concussion. He also got concussion in 2016 after returning from a knee injury and was only cleared to play in the last six (I think) games of the 2016 season because of effects of concussion.

Wasn't young Bradshaw a top ten pick, 4 - 5 if I recollect correctly?There is no outcry from Demon supporters about Bradshaw a high pick, should be traded as he can't get on the park due to repeated concussions.

Actually it was a very interesting article about Bradshaw, he was getting advice from NATHAN BURKE, about how to deal with his concussions, and parts of his game he may need to modify. Bradshaw reckons Burke had been of great assistance to him.

I wonder if the Saints have invested in Burkey giving Paddy advice???? Though I suppose Burkey & Paddy are chalk and cheese to the positions and roles they play in a side.

I think I read the article on the AFL site - its worth reading, the Burkey connection.

[stonecold]

PaddyWhackers, that's what I call them!!!!!

[Sainter_Dad]

Apparently he's on the plane to Sydney, even though he's not an emergency.

Probably as a team bonding thing, as he will not be playing at Sandringham, so he is being included in the team activity and going to Sydney - I like it - keeps him feeling part of our team in a time that must be very frustrating for him.

I think he will make it and the discussion will then become not Paddy v Petracca but:
Paddy v the next best forward at the time versus Petracca v the next best mid at the time.

I think the gap between Paddy and the next best big man will be far more than the gap between Petracca and the next best mid.

I believe the thinking was that mids come along every year - someone who reads the flight of the ball and has good forward sense does not.