Two first rounders & I'm nervous

[The_President]

After we robbed Hawthorn with the trade last year, we have 2 first round picks... Which sounds like a massive win.

But our recent history tells a different story.

Our list management team have done remarkably well to get extra picks in the top 20ish most years (Moving on Dal, Goddard, McEvoy)
But our recruiters have been absolutely HORRENDOUS.

Carlisle, Steele, Gresham, Billings & maybe Acres are the only players that have been really promising.


2012
Traded out picks 12, 13
Got in Tom Lee, Hickey & change.

Drafted
Wright (24) Spencer White (25) Brodie Murdoch (40) and Josh Saunders (43)

Only Hickey & Wright are still going around, both enjoying long stints in the VFL.

2013
McEvoy for Savage and 18
25 & 41 for Longer & 48

Drafted
Billings (3) Dunstan (18) Acres (19)

Billings arguably becoming an A grader this year.
Acres has seemingly spent more time in the VFL than he deserves.
Dunstan seemingly deserving more time in the VFL than he is getting
Savage enjoying plenty of VFL time
Longer has enjoyed plenty of VFL time

2014
Traded
Stanley & 60 for pick 21

Drafted
Paddy (1) Goddard (21) McKenzie (22) Lonie (41)
Petracca is the obvious one here... but who was to know that Paddy would get knocked out so much.
Goddard seemed like a steal at 21
Richo enjoys played McKenzie in the VFL
Lonie very hit and miss

2015
Traded
Pick 5 & 24 for Carlisle & 14
Second rounder for Freeman

Drafted
Gresham (18) Brandon White (40) Bailey Rice (49)
The Carlisle trade turned out to be a beauty. Gresham helps it a lot.
White looked promising last year, completely missing this year.. reportedly turned up to pre-season in horrible condition.
Rice appears to be going alright in the VFL at the moment... had problems with his skin folds last year, reportedly loved drive-thru on the way home.

2016
Too early to tell. Jack Steele will be a beauty if Richo ever picks him again.


Overall
A few good trades (McEvoy, Steele, Carlisle & Goddard - at least at the time)

A few massive busts.
2012 was horrendous
3 picks in the top 20 in 2013.. only Billings has really come on.
2014 is giving me nightmares
Carlisle & Gresham are doing their best to save 2015... Rice, White and Freeman have all provided ZERO.

[SuperSaint]

Laying it out like that our recruiters have been absolutely HORRENDOUS, as you put it.

[Goose is king]

2012 obviously sucked. And 2014 although very early isn't looking great. 2013 could be massive for us as Billings is going to be elite and Acres and Dunstan I have faith in being good midfield contributors. Gresham although he isn't consistent yet is elite for his age and even though he was an early pick I think will be an absolute steel

[Waltzing St Kilda]

Yep ... we're in Michael Frost territory.

(For those too young to remember, Frost was a Footscray hack who for some reason we
picked up with our first pick in 1993 or so. Based pretty much on a whim. Because he'd played
a good game against us the previous year. "Had to get him before others did."
Ended up playing about two games for us.)

[ausfatcat]

Pelchen years sucked in hindsight glad he went

[The_President]

Pelchen years sucked in hindsight glad he went

5 years and maybe 5 players out of it.

Bit of a worry.

[Winmar]

The drafting of Michael Frost was bizarre. At the time they kept showing a goal he kicked over his head. What a waste of a pick.

[Teflon]

We'll be in the wilderness for some time.... mediocrity abounds and that recruitment reading is nightmare stuff....

[takeaway]

I agree 2012 was not good, but happy with 2013, Billings, Acres a couple of quieter games lately but has been excellent, Dunstan is a good solid player, Savage as an older player has given some good years, and Longer has been No. 1 ruckman when fit, best at hitouts, needs development around the ground but still young.
Anyone who can judge the quality of drafting after 2013 is a better judge than me, not enough time to develop. Carlisle the exception as he is experienced.

Full confidence in the drafting crew and looking forward to our picks this year.

[Jacks Back]

I don't trust our recruiters. They have let us down on way too many occasions. Last year's draft picks of new players has seen Long get 2 games (when he didn't deserve them) and that's it! Other clubs are picking up good players left, right and centre.

[Con Gorozidis]

2011 is looking like a fluke and beginners luck.
I have lost all faith in Tony Elshaugh.

[The_President]

2011 is looking like a fluke and beginners luck.
I have lost all faith in Tony Elshaugh.

Ross, Webster & Newnes.

Not a bad effort!

[BackFromUSA]

2011 is looking like a fluke and beginners luck.
I have lost all faith in Tony Elshaugh.

Ross, Webster & Newnes.

Not a bad effort!

Also shows players NEED 50-100 games to show their true potential.

[Con Gorozidis]

2011 is looking like a fluke and beginners luck.
I have lost all faith in Tony Elshaugh.

Ross, Webster & Newnes.

Not a bad effort!

Also shows players NEED 50-100 games to show their true potential.

Except Newnes has been good since day dot and Webster and Ross showed good signs early on. 2011 was a good but it was a fluke I am afraid.

We also passed on Nick Newman from Mornington who is a gun.

Who was in charge in 2010 and missed Luke Parker from Dromana? Disgrace.

[The_President]

2011 is looking like a fluke and beginners luck.
I have lost all faith in Tony Elshaugh.

Ross, Webster & Newnes.

Not a bad effort!

Also shows players NEED 50-100 games to show their true potential.

Except Newnes has been good since day dot and Webster and Ross showed good signs early on. 2011 was a good but it was a fluke I am afraid.

We also passed on Nick Newman from Mornington who is a gun.

Who was in charge in 2010 and missed Luke Parker from Dromana? Disgrace.

Played juniors down at Langwarrin...a stones throw away from Seaford.

[WellardSaint]

2011 is looking like a fluke and beginners luck.
I have lost all faith in Tony Elshaugh.

Be careful
Folks might say you're casting Aspergers on one of the staff.

Elshaugh is a highly paid professional, for sure.
But, like a manager at my last workplace, although he might be a nice guy,
I don't agree with his judgement in several cases, which makes me
"facepalm"

[Zed]

Whilst there are some recruitment clangers, questions also need to be asked about the development program. A number of these recruits debuted year 1 and have stagnated ever since. Dunstan, Lonie, Gresham all had solid first years and really haven't got any better. Billings has only this year managed to take his game to the next level. Ben Long finished 2016 in a blaze of glory, looked promising early 2017 and like most of our recent recruits has fallen into the abyss of the St Kilda development program and shown zero or negative improvement.

2012 was a recruitment disaster - was that the last of the Pelchen years ?. Given our record with the current recruiting team, I certainly wouldn't want to swap any of our early picks for a couple of later picks. I'm getting tired of the standard line that gets rolled out after every draft about how we rated a player much higher than where we picked them - it's more likely we under rated or missed a whole bunch of more talented guys.

I've posted this previously, but we need to spend big off field and get the best talent spotters in the business. Whilst trading has been ok in recent years, we need to find gems in the draft to get us back to the big dance.

[longtimesaint]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and nearly every team has hits and misses.
The only advantage of early first round picks is there is less chance of picking a dud.
Looking at players mentioned Luke Parker was pick 40 and Nick Newman went to the rookie draft.
A lot of other teams missed them too so it is far from an exact science.
One of the ones I would have liked was Rory Sloane who was taken pick 44 and was a big Saints supporter.i believe our recruiters are as good as most other teams but of course teams like Collingwood have a larger recruiting team so should have a better success rate.

[Junior]

2011 is looking like a fluke and beginners luck.
I have lost all faith in Tony Elshaugh.

Ross, Webster & Newnes.

Not a bad effort!

Also shows players NEED 50-100 games to show their true potential.

Except Newnes has been good since day dot and Webster and Ross showed good signs early on. 2011 was a good but it was a fluke I am afraid.

We also passed on Nick Newman from Mornington who is a gun.

Who was in charge in 2010 and missed Luke Parker from Dromana? Disgrace.

Played juniors down at Langwarrin...a stones throw away from Seaford.

Why is where a player from relevant? also what relevance is the fact that a player followed us as a kid?

Not arguing about standard of recruiting as such but surely our recruiters need to be watching Australia wide and with all due respect to Parker and Newman who were local players every other team also passed them over given where they were picked up .

What I would say is the swans recruiter is a gun as he picked them both.

[Con Gorozidis]

2011 is looking like a fluke and beginners luck.
I have lost all faith in Tony Elshaugh.

Ross, Webster & Newnes.

Not a bad effort!

Also shows players NEED 50-100 games to show their true potential.

Except Newnes has been good since day dot and Webster and Ross showed good signs early on. 2011 was a good but it was a fluke I am afraid.

We also passed on Nick Newman from Mornington who is a gun.

Who was in charge in 2010 and missed Luke Parker from Dromana? Disgrace.

Played juniors down at Langwarrin...a stones throw away from Seaford.

Why is where a player from relevant? also what relevance is the fact that a player followed us as a kid?

Not arguing about standard of recruiting as such but surely our recruiters need to be watching Australia wide and with all due respect to Parker and Newman who were local players every other team also passed them over given where they were picked up .

What I would say is the swans recruiter is a gun as he picked them both.

It shouldn't be relevant I agree. In theory in a perfect world.

However of course it is relevant in the real world because recruiters have more opportunities to see players close by. It is just a logistical and practical fact of life.

They can't use the excuse that they didn't know about them. And if they didn't they they are either lazy or negligent.

[White Winmar]

Recruiting is like Russian roulette. It's a bit like predicting which kids in your year 12 class are going to be a success in life. So many confounding variables. Some deliver, some are surprise failures and some succeed against the odds. We've had our howlers, but so has every other club.

I think our bigger problem is development. Look at Geelong, the swines, Hawthorn etc. no early draft picks, but lots of premierships and finals. The one thing that seperates them from the rest is their ability to get the best out of those they bring in. We are also up against it in the resources stakes. It wasn't too long ago our recruiting budget was 70k per annum, which went mainly on JB's salary. When compared with the bigger clubs, it was a miracle we did as well as we did. We now have half a dozen on the crew and Wayne Hughes being paid shyteloads to find uncontracted guns. He'd better deliver this year!

Clever trading and salary cap management (take abow Ameet)and bringing in recycled players has masked our poor drafting record. Given our strong drafting position since 2012, it is a real concern. We have a recruiting manager who's hopelessly unqualified for the task. His CV consists of holding the coach's clipboard for 20 years. RL found him out in a big way. He's a nice bloke, apparently, but that's his only qualification for the job. He has a former work experience kid as his 2IC, and a collection of others who have watched lots of footy, which makes them as qualified as most of us on this forum.

Effective recruiting is the lifeblood of any organisation. We are way behind the leaders such as Adelaide, Geelong, WCE etc. More money is not the whole answer. Finding the best people is. The ultimate trick in great recruiting is finding the right people to do the job. On the available evidence, we are way behind. I throw up Melbourne and Carlton as past recruiting jokes, who've got their acts together. He's had six years. That's enough.

[Myron Gaines]

2011 is looking like a fluke and beginners luck.
I have lost all faith in Tony Elshaugh.

Bingo. The club is better off sacking Trout & going to the draft with Cal Twomey's draft rankings as a guide on who to pick.

[White Winmar]

2011 is looking like a fluke and beginners luck.
I have lost all faith in Tony Elshaugh.

Bingo. The club is better off sacking Trout & going to the draft with Cal Twomey's draft rankings as a guide on who to pick.

We'd certainly save some cash, Myron. When it comes to top twenty picks, you may as well read Knightmare, Callum Twomey, Emma Quayle et al. And pocket the million or so in wasted wages.

[longtimesaint]

Money is one of the most important issues as we historically have not had the resources of other teams.
As in all other professions the best will always command the highest remuneration.
Take Hawthorn with 75k members and a very lucrative poker machine business or Geelong where they make 50 k profit on home games at skilled stadium.
How can we match the resources of those teams with Essendon, Richmond , Collingwood similarly wealthy.

[suss]

Recruiting is like Russian roulette. It's a bit like predicting which kids in your year 12 class are going to be a success in life. So many confounding variables. Some deliver, some are surprise failures and some succeed against the odds. We've had our howlers, but so has every other club.

I think our bigger problem is development. Look at Geelong, the swines, Hawthorn etc. no early draft picks, but lots of premierships and finals. The one thing that seperates them from the rest is their ability to get the best out of those they bring in. We are also up against it in the resources stakes. It wasn't too long ago our recruiting budget was 70k per annum, which went mainly on JB's salary. When compared with the bigger clubs, it was a miracle we did as well as we did. We now have half a dozen on the crew and Wayne Hughes being paid shyteloads to find uncontracted guns. He'd better deliver this year!

Clever trading and salary cap management (take abow Ameet)and bringing in recycled players has masked our poor drafting record. Given our strong drafting position since 2012, it is a real concern. We have a recruiting manager who's hopelessly unqualified for the task. His CV consists of holding the coach's clipboard for 20 years. RL found him out in a big way. He's a nice bloke, apparently, but that's his only qualification for the job. He has a former work experience kid as his 2IC, and a collection of others who have watched lots of footy, which makes them as qualified as most of us on this forum.

Effective recruiting is the lifeblood of any organisation. We are way behind the leaders such as Adelaide, Geelong, WCE etc. More money is not the whole answer. Finding the best people is. The ultimate trick in great recruiting is finding the right people to do the job. On the available evidence, we are way behind. I throw up Melbourne and Carlton as past recruiting jokes, who've got their acts together. He's had six years. That's enough.

Welcome back - great post.

Agree with all your drafting stuff. So much luck involved.

On recruiting, is the guy you're talking about the one we poached from Carlton?