Judd sinks the boots into saints...

[Linton Lodger]

It was a pragmatic decision to draft Paddy. Why is this debate still going?

whether it was pragmatic or not, it can still be a bad decision.
If Petracca is a start and Paddy striuggles, then it is a bad decision. Simple as that.

And it is not as though Petracca came from nowhere. Essentially every recruiter had him as no. 1
GWS wanted to give up 2 early first rounders (4+7) for the chance to draft Petracca + getting a second rounder (21) back.
That is the type of currency that gets big name players.
We knocked them back and then did not even take Petracca!

So.. of course the debate is still going. In two years we will likley know enough to end the debate, the problem is that it may well end in a clear defeat for our recruiters.

Again, I'll ask the question - had we picked Petracca with pick 1 would the Dees have taken Paddy with pick 2?

ie was Paddy a clear top 2 pick??

No because they already had Jesse Hogan. The question should be who would've Melbourne taken if they had Pick 1 and didn't have Hogan. I bet you in that case they would have taken McCartin.

[Linton Lodger]

First thing on Judd, a bit rich coming from him considering Carlton f**ked up spectacularly in recruiting him and giving up Kennedy. A classic case of too many eggs in the one basket (Judd) leaving that Carlton list irretrievably compromised and doomed. His recruitment was of no use to Carlton and had plenty to do with that list never being a contender.

Now, imagine if we had recruited Bontempelli ahead of Billings (I was interested to recently hear that The Bulldogs were going to take Billings ahead of Bontempelli) and Petracca instead of McCartin. Let's also assume that Bontempelli hit the ground running as he did at The Bulldogs and even assume that Petracca didn't do a knee. Where would we be now?

We may have won a few more games this year and last. We may have even played finals last year, although I very much doubt we'd be a bonafide Premiership contender. Our midfield would be better, run deeper, albeit that neither Bontempelli or Petracca are outside speedsters with elite footskills.

However, where would that leave our list management?

We'd have two key forwards, Bruce & Membrey, whom are solid citizens, will be good contributors, but neither will be a gun or even very good key forwards. Rather solid/good 2nd tall forwards. We'd also be lacking a midfielder with absolutely elite footskills who could land the footy on a 5 cent coin from distance, who plays both sides of the body and can score heaviliy from midfiled (Billings).

So with our list development at a stage when we are looking to take the next step, we'd still be short a good key forward (with Riewoldt in the twighlight of his career) and a classy midfielder with elite footskills. We would also still be in the situation we are now, where we need quick & skilled outside mids. So in effect we'd be further behind in our list development than we are now.

It easy for many here to say (in hindsight) that we made the wrong call. Well that's easily said and to those who have that view, what would you do now if we had taken Bontempelli and Petracca? Because that wouldn't have made us a Premiership list, nowhere near it.

There isn't an abudance of key forwards available. Richmond were probably willing to pay way overs for Schache (currently behind McCartin). Or how about paying way overs for Sam Reid? Not a lot of options. Travis Cloke? It'd be slim pickings. Also remember that it looks like The Bulldogs will lose Johanissen (huge loss) because of the Boyd deal. I don't know how good McCartin will be, but I am confident he will be a far better player than Bruce or Membrey.

We also have huge space in our salary cap by design, which would have been earmarked for midfielders, obviously because there's more of them. Sound, intelligent planning I think. If we were to get Kelly, well he's going to be better than Bontempelli and Petracca put together, then the non-recruitment of Bontempelli/Petracca is completely irrelevent.

So, I think we've gone about it the right way and refuse to panic over a handful of results. Those of you who disagree, well at best you've gone way too early in your revisionism and I ask again, what would you do?

But had we taken Bont over The Method I highly doubt Footscray would've won the flag last year. That would've been some sort of a bonus.

Maybe so, but who gives a crap about what other teams do. If we do discuss other teams, then its worth pointing out that GWS took Boyd ahead of Kelly and indeed Bontempelli and they already had Cameron, Paton, Lobb and McCarthy.

Good key forwards (and a good spine) are King.

[Linton Lodger]

Petracca is a good player, better forward than mid field. Buckley did not really put a good defender matchup on him when he went forward today.

IMO he is nothing special & certainly not a dangerfield or ablett, never will be near it.

Proficient midfielders are everywhere, but good target forwards are very hard to find, and Paddy will be one.

Absolutely the right decision to draft Paddy.

That is your "expert" opinion on Petracca, is it? Nice early call. He's in his third year, like Paddy, has had a year off with injury and is impacting games. Going on the available evidence and form displayed so far, it is a little difficult to support your assertions. Petracca is influencing games and has years of improvement and development left in him. He already shows real evidence of being a future star.

Paddy hasn't even kicked three in a game yet. Some have been creaming themselves because he's kicked a goal in meaningless junk time of two games when we've already been badly beaten. Up to your usual standard. One could be forgiven for believing you are a troll.

There are plenty of early calls from people with no patience that Paddy is no good, even though big forwards take a while. My early call is that he will be a prime target on the forward line for years to come, when as always there will be a few teams crying out for a decent forward. Having said that, he will be no plugger, the days of consistent bags of goals has gone, and a good forward today occasionally gets a bag but more often his job is to be a target and get the ball down to the smalls.

My early call on Petracca - see my previous comments. Plenty of other mid types drafted around Petracca's time would be in my team before him

Early calls only - come back to this in say 5 years

Agreed, many are going early on Paddy and many are also going way too early on Petracca.

So far Petracca has played decent footy as a sort of third mid sized forward, not in midfield. There was a justifiable query on his fitness prior to his draft and he has yet to develop a tank that enables him to play through the middle. That could be a matter of time and formality or it may continue being an issue. He definitely looks a bit overweight to me. He is good by foot but not elite, nowhere near Billings in that regard. He is a bit one sided and far from quick, although he does have quick hands and appears to have a quick brain. There is nothing to guarantee at the moment, that he will be an A Grade midfielder.

He has played more games than Paddy because he is a midfielder and can be moved around, such as be played as a medium forward. There is nowhere to hide key position players, they have to play in a key position and that is a lot tougher when you're a kid lacking in experience and seasoned fitness.

So this whole Paddy/Petracca thing is utter nonsense, fuelled by media who need things to talk about and stats to look at.

[Goose is king]

Petracca has never been tagged in his AFL career and McClunken has been tagged in every game he has played. Let's see how it looks after hey have been in the system for 5 years. That said I was disappointed we didn't pick the goal kicking mid

[Linton Lodger]

Petracca has never been tagged in his AFL career and McClunken has been tagged in every game he has played. Let's see how it looks after hey have been in the system for 5 years. That said I was disappointed we didn't pick the goal kicking mid

Don't worry, Billings, Gresham and Acres will be goalkicking mids. At this point you could not dismiss the fact that all may end up better than Petracca. I certainly wouldn't even think of backing Petracca to be better than all three of them.

[stonecold]

Petracca has never been tagged in his AFL career and McClunken has been tagged in every game he has played. Let's see how it looks after hey have been in the system for 5 years. That said I was disappointed we didn't pick the goal kicking mid

Don't worry, Billings, Gresham and Acres will be goalkicking mids. At this point you could not dismiss the fact that all may end up better than Petracca. I certainly wouldn't even think of backing Petracca to be better than all three of them.

Good call, im backing Patricia to be the next Mark McGough!!!!!

Sorry to bring that old Skeleton out of the Closet folks!!!!!

[Wrote for Luck]

If Gresham can build a tank I reckon he'll be more useful mid than what Petracca will be. Also Billings has had much better stats than Petracca - I know that's not the comparison but, it still counts! Petracca's got that dicky kick, and dicky head.

Judd is a Melbourne supporter from childhood. He's on the rev-up.

[satchmo]

Petracca has never been tagged in his AFL career and McClunken has been tagged in every game he has played. Let's see how it looks after hey have been in the system for 5 years. That said I was disappointed we didn't pick the goal kicking mid

Don't worry, Billings, Gresham and Acres will be goalkicking mids. At this point you could not dismiss the fact that all may end up better than Petracca. I certainly wouldn't even think of backing Petracca to be better than all three of them.

Good call, im backing Patricia to be the next Mark McGough!!!!!

Sorry to bring that old Skeleton out of the Closet folks!!!!!

Here's a little prediction for you stoney....patricia will end up a pie. Just a random guess!

[Bernard Shakey]

First thing on Judd, a bit rich coming from him considering Carlton f**ked up spectacularly in recruiting him and giving up Kennedy. A classic case of too many eggs in the one basket (Judd) leaving that Carlton list irretrievably compromised and doomed. His recruitment was of no use to Carlton and had plenty to do with that list never being a contender.

Now, imagine if we had recruited Bontempelli ahead of Billings (I was interested to recently hear that The Bulldogs were going to take Billings ahead of Bontempelli) and Petracca instead of McCartin. Let's also assume that Bontempelli hit the ground running as he did at The Bulldogs and even assume that Petracca didn't do a knee. Where would we be now?

We may have won a few more games this year and last. We may have even played finals last year, although I very much doubt we'd be a bonafide Premiership contender. Our midfield would be better, run deeper, albeit that neither Bontempelli or Petracca are outside speedsters with elite footskills.

However, where would that leave our list management?

We'd have two key forwards, Bruce & Membrey, whom are solid citizens, will be good contributors, but neither will be a gun or even very good key forwards. Rather solid/good 2nd tall forwards. We'd also be lacking a midfielder with absolutely elite footskills who could land the footy on a 5 cent coin from distance, who plays both sides of the body and can score heaviliy from midfiled (Billings).

So with our list development at a stage when we are looking to take the next step, we'd still be short a good key forward (with Riewoldt in the twighlight of his career) and a classy midfielder with elite footskills. We would also still be in the situation we are now, where we need quick & skilled outside mids. So in effect we'd be further behind in our list development than we are now.

It easy for many here to say (in hindsight) that we made the wrong call. Well that's easily said and to those who have that view, what would you do now if we had taken Bontempelli and Petracca? Because that wouldn't have made us a Premiership list, nowhere near it.

There isn't an abudance of key forwards available. Richmond were probably willing to pay way overs for Schache (currently behind McCartin). Or how about paying way overs for Sam Reid? Not a lot of options. Travis Cloke? It'd be slim pickings. Also remember that it looks like The Bulldogs will lose Johanissen (huge loss) because of the Boyd deal. I don't know how good McCartin will be, but I am confident he will be a far better player than Bruce or Membrey.

We also have huge space in our salary cap by design, which would have been earmarked for midfielders, obviously because there's more of them. Sound, intelligent planning I think. If we were to get Kelly, well he's going to be better than Bontempelli and Petracca put together, then the non-recruitment of Bontempelli/Petracca is completely irrelevent.

So, I think we've gone about it the right way and refuse to panic over a handful of results. Those of you who disagree, well at best you've gone way too early in your revisionism and I ask again, what would you do?

Spot on!

[Teflon]

Agreed his comments were a bit low, below the belt even.

Still got a head and smirk you'd love to belt Judd....

[dragit]

I didn't even notice Chris was in that pic before you pointed it out.

[lintonstreet]

Message to Juddy - Paddy's 21 years of age and a key position forward. Let's see if you can repeat your claim in 3 years time!

The wheel can turn very quickly when you're talking about 21 year olds.

[stonecold]

Petracca has never been tagged in his AFL career and McClunken has been tagged in every game he has played. Let's see how it looks after hey have been in the system for 5 years. That said I was disappointed we didn't pick the goal kicking mid

Don't worry, Billings, Gresham and Acres will be goalkicking mids. At this point you could not dismiss the fact that all may end up better than Petracca. I certainly wouldn't even think of backing Petracca to be better than all three of them.

Good call, im backing Patricia to be the next Mark McGough!!!!!

Sorry to bring that old Skeleton out of the Closet folks!!!!!

Here's a little prediction for you stoney....patricia will end up a pie. Just a random guess!

A PieGuts!!!!!

[ace]

The majority of us on here thought it was a mistake at the time.
That is what is so disappointing.
Such a quintessentially St Kilda move.

No, that's too obvious to take the universally lauded Judd like midfielder....lets take a chance on the stay at home full forward with a tidy bedroom.

I was one of those who wanted Petracca because I did not like the fact Paddy had type 1 diabetes.
I have type 2 diabetes and I blame it for the fact that I still had little strength in my legs even after skiing 73 days in 3 months.
Lack of leg strength seriously affects my skiing as does my arthritis damaged knees.
My brother in law, same age, with far less excise has considerably more leg strength.

But when all is said and done we did take Paddy.
He is all we got for pick 1
We only have two choices now - trade him away or persist with him in the hope he at least becomes a regular contributor.
If he does not make it then he does not make it.
Once you call a players name at the draft you have to live with it - good or bad.

The thing we need to take out of all this is : stay realistic about expectations from potential draft picks.
Emma Quayle witness report on the decision to take Paddy reads like Trout got carried away once he made his choice.
He got carried away especially by Paddy's character and did not place enough emphasis on potential downside.
It reads like Trout talked himself into believing Paddy was the second coming.
Someone needs to bring a level head to the table when someone gets carried away.
Paddy may yet prove to be the second coming, but that does not justify getting carried away.

[White Winmar]

Absolutely spot on, ace. The effects of diabetes, type 1 and 2 is considerable, especially in an environment as brutal as AFL. From recovery time from injury, compromised immune system and most pertinent for Paddy, the effects of concussion on diabetics (extent and longer recovery time), he was a big risk, one I 'Ve stated wasn't worth it, despite the fact I think he has a ton of natural ability. I want to throw up every time I hear trout say it's not a factor. It is. It's one of the reasons he can't run out of sight on a dark and foggy night, a huge liability in the modern game.

Not the kid's fault. Blame Elshaug. As I said at the time of his appointment, he has no expertise or track record as a recruiter. None. Just a bloke who has hung around and had every job in a club bar boot studder. Not really the right qualifications to hold the most important job in the place after the head coach.

Couldn't hack the pace under Lyon. Given this job as a consolation prize that was designed to keep him from suing the place. I'm always amused at the opprobrium heaped on John Peake on this site for being a terrible recruiter. History is starting to show that Peakey is a vastly superior recruiter than his successor. Now working his magic back at Geelong, from whence he came. I suggest his track record, both there and with is is vastly superior to the "good bloke" that Elshaug is. I worked with Peake and saw how much he put in. Hamstrung by late picks and a less than supportive coach. Ten times the recruiter Smithers Elshaug is. The record is starting to bare that out.

[Joffa Burns]

I have no idea what due diligence was undertaken, but Trout was quoted as being quite dismissive of the Diabetes effect in Quayle's article.

I would have liked to have read something like:
We have consulted Dr XXX Australia's leading expert on Type 1 diabetes and his assessment is XXX.
He has tested Paddy and concurs the diabetes will have minimal impact in these areas if managed in xxx manner.

I'm sure it would have been undertaken, just didn't read a reference in Quayle's article.

[samoht]

McCartin is actually winning at least as much of the ball, in terms of possessions, as Lockett did.

The difference is Lockett only needed to have a 10 possession game - say 8 kicks, 2 handballs to finish with a handy 5-6 goals next to his name.
Lockett didn't need to win too many possessions to impact the scoreboard.

But then he also benefited from Harvey and his pin-point, perfectly weighted passes - and a more open forward line back then that helped.

Times have changed - give me a goal-kicking midfielder (who can also set up goals for his team mates with his long kicks) any day.

[White Winmar]

I have no idea what due diligence was undertaken, but Trout was quoted as being quite dismissive of the Diabetes effect in Quayle's article.

I would have liked to have read something like:
We have consulted Dr XXX Australia's leading expert on Type 1 diabetes and his assessment is XXX.
He has tested Paddy and concurs the diabetes will have minimal impact in these areas if managed in xxx manner.

I'm sure it would have been undertaken, just didn't read a reference in Quayle's article.

Spot on, JB. I think the whole thing has been waved away as irrelevant. A couple of type 1 diabetics I know, including my sister in law, are amazed that he would be a number one pick. The lack of reference to experts concerned me at the time and still does. The boy can play, but there are a lot of downsides to his game, too many IMHO, to justify the huge investment of number one. Still, we're stuck with it now, so I hope everything is being done to maximise his chances of success.

[samoht]

Recruiters can make or break teams - you can always hire and fire "bad" or underperforming coaches - but with a bad recruiter you're still stuck with the players they've recruited.

A bad recruiter is like a bad smell that won't go away.

A good recruiter is worth 10 good coaches. That's how important they are.

I think the best recruiters are worth infinitely more to a team than the best coaches.

In fact, behind every so-called "great" coach is a great (great with no quotation marks) recruiter.

[magnifisaint]

Agreed his comments were a bit low, below the belt even.

Still got a head and smirk you'd love to belt Judd....

Real figjam look

[SaintPav]

Trout needs to get the arse.

[White Winmar]

Agreed his comments were a bit low, below the belt even.

Still got a head and smirk you'd love to belt Judd....

Real figjam look

Rebecca Twigley is Satan. If you look closely, you can see the outline of her "goaty" legs, cloven hooves and all. Judd is merely the devil's consort. As Ned Flanders famously said, "It's always the one you least suspect!" Twigley, diggly.

[Linton Lodger]

Are we ignoring the fact that Petracca could very well not turn out to be as good as Billings (Pick 3), Gresham (Pick 17) and Acres (Pick 18)? I'm betting at least 2 of them will be better than Petracca, probably all 3.

This thread has gone on, yet no one has articulated where we'd now find a key forward if we had taken Petracca instead of Paddy.

By the way here's a list of AFL players with Type 1 Diabetes:

Australian rules football

Nathan Bassett, Adelaide, type 1.
Jamie Cripps, St Kilda and West Coast, type 1.
Jack Fitzpatrick, Melbourne, Hawthorn type 1.
Brandon Jack, Sydney, type 1.
Paddy McCartin, St Kilda, type 1.
Sam Reid, Western Bulldogs and Greater Western Sydney, type 1.
Dale Weightman, Richmond, type 1.

Sam Reid has been in good form for GWS displacing many high draft picks, Brandon Jack is a handy player and Dale Weightman didn't go too badly.

[SuperSaint]

Recruiters can make or break teams - you can always hire and fire "bad" or underperforming coaches - but with a bad recruiter you're still stuck with the players they've recruited.

A bad recruiter is like a bad smell that won't go away.

A good recruiter is worth 10 good coaches. That's how important they are.

I think the best recruiters are worth infinitely more to a team than the best coaches.

In fact, behind every so-called "great" coach is a great (great with no quotation marks) recruiter.

Well said samoht. This is what makes a team ultimately.

For those here that think Petracca is nothing special, especially the knockers, well keep burying your head in the sand because he will be elite. I've watched enough of him to know Melbourne got an absolute beauty in this kid.

[White Winmar]

Are we ignoring the fact that Petracca could very well not turn out to be as good as Billings (Pick 3), Gresham (Pick 17) and Acres (Pick 18)? I'm betting at least 2 of them will be better than Petracca, probably all 3.

This thread has gone on, yet no one has articulated where we'd now find a key forward if we had taken Petracca instead of Paddy.

By the way here's a list of AFL players with Type 1 Diabetes:

Australian rules football

Nathan Bassett, Adelaide, type 1.
Jamie Cripps, St Kilda and West Coast, type 1.
Jack Fitzpatrick, Melbourne, Hawthorn type 1.
Brandon Jack, Sydney, type 1.
Paddy McCartin, St Kilda, type 1.
Sam Reid, Western Bulldogs and Greater Western Sydney, type 1.
Dale Weightman, Richmond, type 1.

Sam Reid has been in good form for GWS displacing many high draft picks, Brandon Jack is a handy player and Dale Weightman didn't go too badly.

No champions in that lot. Weightman the exception. Played 30 years ago. Unknown how severe his diabetes was. Ridiculous gamble given it was pick one.