What the %$&^ type of footy do we actually play?

[Johnny Member]

Try to make some sense of these stats:

Last for R50s.

2nd for Least Opposition Inside 50s (ie. we're good at stopping opposition Inside 50s).

15th for Goal Assists.

13th for Clearances.

5th for Opponent Marks Inside 50 (we concede a lot of marks inside 50).

1st for Opponent Disposal Efficiency.

8th for Points Against.



This is just confusing. What are we trying to do exactly??

We get smashed in clearances. But we don't concede a lot of Inside 50s. But when we do, we give up heaps of marks inside 50.

We are last in the comp for Rebound 50s, so we don't generate must offense from defence. But we also don't win clearances so we're not generating attack from the middle either. As a result, we're in the bottom 4 for goal assists.


Is this suggesting we're focusing way too much on defence, and we aren't getting it right? We select Dunstan every single week, who doesn't get the ball and doesn't use it well. This along with Richardson's comments that we want to be the best defensive team in the competition certainly tells me that it's the priority.


We've been beaten by Melbourne, West Coast, Geelong, Sydney - all decent teams.

We've beaten average teams and a depleted GWS team.


Is it fair to say that we don't know what we're actually doing? Is this what these stats are telling us? And the results we've seen (ie. beaten by the good teams) are a reflection of this?

[WellardSaint]

be careful, you'll start a forum war.
I can see all your logic and agree with you,
but others of the Blue Sky clan just think everything is just so peachy
and the club is on track to be top-4 either this year or 2018.

Anyway...the bombing into the forward line does no favours to Membrey and Paddy (and Bruce before dropped)
and Rooey.

[takeaway]

Stats, Stats & Stats

Don't really tell you much

[Johnny Member]

Stats, Stats & Stats

Don't really tell you much

The facts are, we lost to West Coast (4th), Geelong (2nd), Melbourne (11th) and Sydney (12th). And have only beaten Brisbane (18th), Hawthorn (17th), Carlton (16th) Collingwood (13th) and of course GWS - who were undermanned at the time.


They are the facts. Can't argue with those results.


The question is why are we able to only beat the bottom teams, and not the decent ones? Why do we look so average to the untrained eye when we play? Especially against good teams? Why are our offensive thrusts so impotent, time and time again?


That's where the stats can help identify the 'why'.


In this instance, they seem to be utterly confusing in terms of the style of play we're bringing to the table. May be therein lies the reason for our current situation?

[Linton Lodger]

What a load of crap. We have beaten the best team in the competition (GWS). Sydney may have had a shocking start to the season and may or may not get to the finals, but they are a Top 4 team.

Your analysis says nothing other than attempt to reinforce your anxieties.

[Johnny Member]

What a load of crap. We have beaten the best team in the competition (GWS). Sydney may have had a shocking start to the season and may or may not get to the finals, but they are a Top 4 team.

Your analysis says nothing other than attempt to reinforce your anxieties.

GWS in R7 were the best team in the comp? Really?


Without Haynes and Greene? An underdone Coniglio in his first game back. Then losing Kennedy in the 1st quarter? Then losing Wilson for a quarter?

The same GWS that were beaten by Adelaide by 10 goals in R1? That fell over the line against the Bulldogs? That pinched it off Collingwood in the last 40 seconds? The one that stole the game off Richmond?


Don't get me wrong, we played quite well that night - but to be in denial and suggest that GWS are the best in the team in the comp and were anywhere near their best that night, is just wrong.



Facts:

We've been beaten comfortably by Melbourne, Geelong, West Coast and Sydney.



You can't argue with that.

[Con Gorozidis]

Aren't we pressure specialists?
How is opposition DE % so high?

[Saints43]

Aren't we paying ~90% of the salary cap? How could you possibly beat the top teams on a regular basis? We'd be playing two top players down every time we get out on the field.

[Johnny Member]

Aren't we pressure specialists?
How is opposition DE % so high?

Odd, isn't it.

[Linton Lodger]

What a load of crap. We have beaten the best team in the competition (GWS). Sydney may have had a shocking start to the season and may or may not get to the finals, but they are a Top 4 team.

Your analysis says nothing other than attempt to reinforce your anxieties.

GWS in R7 were the best team in the comp? Really?


Without Haynes and Greene? An underdone Coniglio in his first game back. Then losing Kennedy in the 1st quarter? Then losing Wilson for a quarter?

The same GWS that were beaten by Adelaide by 10 goals in R1? That fell over the line against the Bulldogs? That pinched it off Collingwood in the last 40 seconds? The one that stole the game off Richmond?


Don't get me wrong, we played quite well that night - but to be in denial and suggest that GWS are the best in the team in the comp and were anywhere near their best that night, is just wrong.



Facts:

We've been beaten comfortably by Melbourne, Geelong, West Coast and Sydney.



You can't argue with that.

Best midfield I've seen in a while, by far. And they were pretty good against us. Their weakness is their ordinary defensive pressure in the forward half, if that was good, they'd be close to unbeatable. Couldn't give a toss about R1, Adelaide are nowhere near them, a one man midfield.

Make no mistake our win against them was extremely impressive.

Geelong & West Coast beat us, but not comfortably, only Sydney have really touched us up. This in a season where every single team in the comp has been on the receiving end of a smashing.

Your logic just doesn't add up, particularly this season.

[Linton Lodger]

Aren't we paying ~90% of the salary cap? How could you possibly beat the top teams on a regular basis? We'd be playing two top players down every time we get out on the field.

What point is it that you're trying to make? Your comment is nonsensical.

[carn_sainter]

Aren't we pressure specialists?
How is opposition DE % so high?

Odd, isn't it.

Disposal efficiency is a dodgy stat.


Johnny's original post shows stats that are consistent with a high pressing aggressive defensive structure. Everyone pressing up hard and pressuring further up the ground make it hard for the other side to get the ball inside 50, but also means that they would, when they do get it in there, be getting good looks (thus, marks), probably from a turnover, that catch a pressing defence out of position. Right?

So it gets in there rarely but with a good look when it does.


15th for goal assists is completely consistent with what they coach talks about at every press conference...move it fast, deep, long, to contesting forwards who bring it to the crumbers below. Richo has never said we try to spot up inside 50. I'm sure it's part of the plan, but it's not a big part. The goals don't come from passes to teammates but from general play, contests, turnovers.


Remember, a clearance is just the first possession from a stoppage. So much footy now relies on two or three handballs from a stoppage...so they can get the first handball (a clearance) without necessarily clearing the ball.


Regarding rebound 50s, if you concede the fewest inside 50s, you have the fewest opportunities to rebound 50.


Stat's i'm interested in and for which we would rank very low would be:

- Points for from kick-in
- Points against from kick-in
- Average number of possessions in a chain

We suck at all three.


We need to be better in front of the ball, so we get better shots at goal, score more from them, have options to kick to ahead of the ball so we can move it efficiently.

So far, the midfield has been pretty good. Badly smashed in patches but also dominant in patches. Certainly from a contested ball perspective...ball use and hurting the opposition is still a problem in the midfield.

So far, the defenders have been great.

So far, the forwards have sucked.


I agree that Dunstan should not be getting games at the moment because he is behind Steele and Stevens. We need goal scorers and players who hurt the opposition with ball use, which is why I want to see Gresham, Sinclair and Minchington played every week.

[Devilhead]

Our forwards suck yet we sit 4th in shots at goal - go figure

[Johnny Member]

Your logic just doesn't add up, particularly this season.

Which is the exception, and which is the rule?

The part where Geelong, West Coast, Melbourne and Sydney all beat us? Or the one time we beat GWS?

[Devilhead]

Your logic just doesn't add up, particularly this season.

Which is the exception, and which is the rule?

The part where Geelong, West Coast, Melbourne and Sydney all beat us? Or the one time we beat GWS?

Did you expect us to go through the season undefeated?

I certainly didn't and I like nearly all Saints fans knew that we would occasionally take a beating like nearly every team in the comp has this year so far (see Adelaide, GWS, Bulldogs, Cats and Port)

JM, Mate, Buddy ..... every St Kilda supporter that is currently living understands that we are a couple of players short from being a top 4 side yet you bang on about it as if you are the only one that knows this

You also have been caught backtracking about certain players that you couldn't see developing into seriously good players.

It has been absolutely cast iron in the Club's and supporters minds that we probably wont enter our Prem window until next season once we start to empty that little treasure chest we are sitting on.

Our midfield is young and developing ..... they need more games together and the more experienced the get the better they will become ... in the meantime we will lose some games against good sides and also win some games against good sides and hopefully soon we will be winning more games against good sides .... but for the time being ffs give them some space to breathe and time to learn and develop as a team

[Johnny Member]

Your logic just doesn't add up, particularly this season.

Which is the exception, and which is the rule?

The part where Geelong, West Coast, Melbourne and Sydney all beat us? Or the one time we beat GWS?

Did you expect us to go through the season undefeated?

I certainly didn't and I like nearly all Saints fans knew that we would occasionally take a beating like nearly every team in the comp has this year so far (see Adelaide, GWS, Bulldogs, Cats and Port)

JM, Mate, Buddy ..... every St Kilda supporter that is currently living understands that we are a couple of players short from being a top 4 side yet you bang on about it as if you are the only one that knows this

You also have been caught backtracking about certain players that you couldn't see developing into seriously good players.

It has been absolutely cast iron in the Club's and supporters minds that we probably wont enter our Prem window until next season once we start to empty that little treasure chest we are sitting on.

Our midfield is young and developing ..... they need more games together and the more experienced the get the better they will become ... in the meantime we will lose some games against good sides and also win some games against good sides and hopefully soon we will be winning more games against good sides .... but for the time being ffs give them some space to breathe and time to learn and develop as a team

Odd post to be honest.

Firstly, if you read the first two pages of my 'We're Not Good Enough' thread, you'll find that plenty of Saints supporters, living ones, disagree that we're not good enough.

If you listen to the radio or read the papers, you'll even find 'experts' who disagree.


I'm not sure I've backtracked on anything. I've been pleasantly surprised by some players' early season form - but as you'd be aware, early season for doesn't equate to being an A-Grader. Besides, I've actually said that we won't improve 'beyond this season'. We will improve, and players will improve this year from last - but I believe that will be the ceiling for almost all. I've listed the ones that I hope will be the exceptions.

I've also stated that we need to add to what we've got.

It's not ground breaking stuff. I never intended it to be. It was merely an alternate view to the 'the experts are saying we're going to be a contender this year and we won some JLT games so I've going to book my Grand Final tickets' view that was becoming very prevalent leading into the Melbourne game.

It wasn't intended as a dig. Which as usual, anything other than 'we're awesome and we rule coz we're the Saints!' type opinions tend to be interporeted as attacks on the club.


It was was very clear, so clear in fact that I stated it several times, that it wasn't a knock on the club - just an observation.


So 90% of what you posted above is pretty much irrelevant if directed at me.

[Johnny Member]

Your logic just doesn't add up, particularly this season.

Which is the exception, and which is the rule?

The part where Geelong, West Coast, Melbourne and Sydney all beat us? Or the one time we beat GWS?

Did you expect us to go through the season undefeated?

I certainly didn't and I like nearly all Saints fans knew that we would occasionally take a beating like nearly every team in the comp has this year so far (see Adelaide, GWS, Bulldogs, Cats and Port)

JM, Mate, Buddy ..... every St Kilda supporter that is currently living understands that we are a couple of players short from being a top 4 side yet you bang on about it as if you are the only one that knows this

You also have been caught backtracking about certain players that you couldn't see developing into seriously good players.

It has been absolutely cast iron in the Club's and supporters minds that we probably wont enter our Prem window until next season once we start to empty that little treasure chest we are sitting on.

Our midfield is young and developing ..... they need more games together and the more experienced the get the better they will become ... in the meantime we will lose some games against good sides and also win some games against good sides and hopefully soon we will be winning more games against good sides .... but for the time being ffs give them some space to breathe and time to learn and develop as a team

Odd post to be honest.

Firstly, if you read the first two pages of my 'We're Not Good Enough' thread, you'll find that plenty of Saints supporters, living ones, disagree that we're not good enough.

If you listen to the radio or read the papers, you'll even find 'experts' who disagree.


I'm not sure I've backtracked on anything. I've been pleasantly surprised by some players' early season form - but as you'd be aware, early season form doesn't equate to being an A-Grader. Besides, I've actually said that we won't improve 'beyond this season'. We will improve, and players will improve this year from last - but I believe that will be the ceiling for almost all. I've listed the ones that I hope will be the exceptions.

I've also stated that we need to add to what we've got.

It's not ground breaking stuff. I never intended it to be. It was merely an alternate view to the 'the experts are saying we're going to be a contender this year and we won some JLT games so I've going to book my Grand Final tickets' view that was becoming very prevalent leading into the Melbourne game.

It wasn't intended as a dig. Which as usual, anything other than 'we're awesome and we rule coz we're the Saints!' type opinions tend to be interpreted as attacks on the club.


It was was very clear, so clear in fact that I stated it several times, that it wasn't a knock on the club - just an observation.


So 90% of what you posted above is pretty much irrelevant if directed at me.

[Devilhead]

Odd post to be honest.

Firstly, if you read the first two pages of my 'We're Not Good Enough' thread, you'll find that plenty of Saints supporters, living ones, disagree that we're not good enough.

If you listen to the radio or read the papers, you'll even find 'experts' who disagree.


I'm not sure I've backtracked on anything. I've been pleasantly surprised by some players' early season form - but as you'd be aware, early season form doesn't equate to being an A-Grader. Besides, I've actually said that we won't improve 'beyond this season'. We will improve, and players will improve this year from last - but I believe that will be the ceiling for almost all. I've listed the ones that I hope will be the exceptions.

I've also stated that we need to add to what we've got.

It's not ground breaking stuff. I never intended it to be. It was merely an alternate view to the 'the experts are saying we're going to be a contender this year and we won some JLT games so I've going to book my Grand Final tickets' view that was becoming very prevalent leading into the Melbourne game.

It wasn't intended as a dig. Which as usual, anything other than 'we're awesome and we rule coz we're the Saints!' type opinions tend to be interpreted as attacks on the club.


It was was very clear, so clear in fact that I stated it several times, that it wasn't a knock on the club - just an observation.


So 90% of what you posted above is pretty much irrelevant if directed at me.

Who are these multitude of experts/supporters that have said that we were going to be a contender this year?

I assume also your exceptions now are Ross and Roberton ..... you know ..... the ones that you may have got wrong?

As for attacking the club and having a dig I am sure that wasn't your intention but it is my opinion and also many others that you have gone too early on your "ceiling" observations considering how young and inexperienced our developing midfield is - you only need to look at how many games that Sydney midfield has played together compared against ours to see where the gap is

Kennedy - 192
Hannebery - 179
Parker - 136
Lloyd - 78
Sinclair - 52
Jones - 40

Steven - 141
Stevens - 77
Ross - 68
Longer - 48
Acres - 34
Steele - 26

Plenty of time for some of our young mids to develop into A-Grade players - hell just look at Kennedy - discarded by Hawks and now one of the games best mids

[Bluthy]

We've beaten average teams and a depleted GWS team.
?

See this is where I find you really inconsistent JM. You keep pointing out that GWS were depleted to tear that win down, but don't say a single thing about us last week losing our A-grader Newnes and having the week from hell. It doesn't suit your narrative so you gloss over it so you can be proven right that "we are not good enough". Be consistent not so rigid in your thinking. None of us can know for sure how things will evolve.

I think the cats flag era is a rough model we could be compared to working towards with some doggies thrown in. Liking to move the ball quickly with hand, playing momentum footy by hitting the scoreboard hard when we are on top, running hard and taking risks but also trying to get a powerful lock down, tackling defence as a backup as you can't win flags without tenacious D (This is just a tribute...). Paddy would be our Hawkins, Goddard to be our backline general like Harley . Of course cats ended up with blue ribbon players all over the field especially the midfield, with great recruiting and some gold father-son luck and Thompson became a great coach able to make smart courageous moves to influence games. Will we have that level of class all over the field?

Our bomb and lock footy didn't work last week as we struggled to get it out the back quickly like we like to catch teams out from their press, and our forward line couldn't lock it in. But I think we'll keep trying it as Paddy should get better and better. I'm hoping Richo will be willing to get better possession players in the team (like White and Rice) to give us more dimension with the ability to keep possession and hit up targets particularly into the forward half.

[Johnny Member]

We've beaten average teams and a depleted GWS team.

See this is where I find you really inconsistent JM. You keep pointing out that GWS were depleted to tear that win down....

I'm not tearing it down.

Just giving it some perspective.

[Proph3t of egan]

What a load of crap. We have beaten the best team in the competition (GWS). Sydney may have had a shocking start to the season and may or may not get to the finals, but they are a Top 4 team.

Your analysis says nothing other than attempt to reinforce your anxieties.

GWS in R7 were the best team in the comp? Really?


Without Haynes and Greene? An underdone Coniglio in his first game back. Then losing Kennedy in the 1st quarter? Then losing Wilson for a quarter?

The same GWS that were beaten by Adelaide by 10 goals in R1? That fell over the line against the Bulldogs? That pinched it off Collingwood in the last 40 seconds? The one that stole the game off Richmond?


Don't get me wrong, we played quite well that night - but to be in denial and suggest that GWS are the best in the team in the comp and were anywhere near their best that night, is just wrong.



Facts:

We've been beaten comfortably by Melbourne, Geelong, West Coast and Sydney.



You can't argue with that.

Ohhhh, I like this game, lemme try.

We lost to Sydney.

Without Armitage and Webster. With an underdone riewoldt. We also lost Newnes in the first quarter.

Does that work as an excuse?

The fact is we beat GWS, who the dogs lost to, Richmond lost to and Collingwood lost to. All that matter is that we were better then them on the night. We're the Bulldogs better then Sydney last year?

It's true that we were beaten comprehensively by those teams, though with Melbourne's injuries, I reckon we could beat then now

[BigMart]

We apply pressure and give great effort!!!!

[Jacks Back]

When we lose, we are still losing by too much. At this stage of our development we shouldn't be losing to anyone by 50 points (especially in our dome we call home)!

[ChrisRyanSaints]

Workhorse Footy
Contest ball clear it but then get smashed around ground cause we have no skill.
Bunch of insiders thats all we have. All grunt no skill
Every week we hardly ever feature in top 10 highlights. So mundane apart from gresham whos 19 ffs

B and c graders. Not good enough. And the inside footy that smashes young teams is masking the fact we are in big trouble with this list.

[rodgerfox]

I'd be interested to see if the OP could chase some stats from this year to see if there is any pattern to what we actually do? Because there certainly doesn't seem to be!