We're Just Not Good Enough

[st.byron]

I think the OP is a glass half empty view. Agree with other posters who say it's too early to tell on Billings, McCartin, Acres, Steele.

Our list is still full of players with lots of development left in them. Too early to be writing our chances off based on our current list.

[White Winmar]

i think you have made some calls on our drafting and on players who are 2nd year, 3rd year and maybe if you are lucky, going in to their 4th year this year!

far too early.

not every player is a bont eg A grade in second year.

i ask you - when did danger, selwood, fyfe etc become out and out stars. Danger was like his 5th year right? Fyfe?

perspective is required. judge billings on his year this year (3rd) and his first without injury

Paddy flat handed? his marking is virtually A grade! took 15 clunks on the weekend.

I'm not expecting them all, all neccessarily any of them to be performing at the 'A-Grade' level - but you can often tell by this stage, whether or not they'll actually ever get to that level. Not always - but often.

Dangerfield, Selwood, Bont, Judd, etc. etc. etc.


They didn't all have the output of superstars from the start, or even by their 2nd or 3rd year - but the signs were there.


I don't see the signs personally with any of our guys. Acres maybe, Gresham hopefully, Billings hopefully?


Example: When Carlisle wanted to come to the Saints, the only player on the list that Essendon were interested in considering for a trade was Billings. No one else was considered of any value now, or in the future by them. That's telling, if not concerning.

A fair point, JM, but that was then and this is now. They were also keen on Seb Ross, I was told. They were told no dice on either account. Two pre seasons and a whole season has passed since. I bet they'd be interested in a few more now.

[Johnny Member]

Well, Johnny, I have lost count of how many counter-punches you have thrown in this contest of your own making.

You have expressed your opinion, you really don't have to defend everytime somebody takes an alternate view.

Have a chill pill, mate, because you will not enjoy one minute of this season unless you are proven 100% correct with your prognosis. Just a hin, this is 2017 not 2014 and I think StKilda has moved onwards and upwards. Everybody must feel a little jaded by Chicken Little impersonators by now.

Ummm, isn't that the precise definition of a discussion?

[The Fireman]

negativity is welcomed here.

[kosifantutti]

negativity is welcomed here.

No it isn't.

[White Winmar]

I dispute that.

[Jacks Back]

There's an article Jon Ralph wrote about the Geelong Cats back in 2006, basically saying half of their list wasn't up to it and there barely a future All Australian amongst them. Brian Cook keeps a copy of it signed by Jon Ralph in his office. This thread reminds me of that article.

Ask Bomber Thompson what he thought of their list though.

By the same loigic, ask Richo what he thinks of our list too....

Well Thompson publicly spruiked the talent on his list in 2004.


So we know he believed it was full of talent. Contrary to what that simpleton Jon Ralph thought.

That's a good point.

[Johnny Member]

I think the OP is a glass half empty view. Agree with other posters who say it's too early to tell on Billings, McCartin, Acres, Steele.

Our list is still full of players with lots of development left in them. Too early to be writing our chances off based on our current list.

Disagree.


We don't have anywhere near enough high end talent.


Depth yes - bug basically all that means is that we have a list of ordinary players.

[White Winmar]

On today's effort, you may be right, JM. I'd prefer to think of it as a typical round one anomaly.

[Wayne42]

JM may well be Wright

[BigMart]

Petracca, Oliver, Bradshaw, Hogan, T. McDonald, Viney


And

GAWN

I think Melb have us for elite talent

[saint64]

Petracca - are we going to be watching him with regret for the next 10 plus years?

[suss]

Petracca - are we going to be watching him with regret for the next 10 plus years?

I wanted Petracca but you kind of have to respect the decision though - no point having a bull like Petracca if he has no-one to kick it to.

We could have drafted a bit better in recent years with our top picks but we could've drafted much, much worse too. Billings will be okay (although I still find it strange we used pick three on a 70kg forward flanker) and Paddy still goes very high if you re-draft his year again.

[Enrico_Misso]

Looks like we have got waaaay ahead of ourselves.

Yesterday we were a lock for finals.
Today they look a distant prospect.

[saintsRrising]

Petracca - are we going to be watching him with regret for the next 10 plus years?

I wanted Petracca but you kind of have to respect the decision though - no point having a bull like Petracca if he has no-one to kick it to.

We could have drafted a bit better in recent years with our top picks but we could've drafted much, much worse too. Billings will be okay (although I still find it strange we used pick three on a 70kg forward flanker) and Paddy still goes very high if you re-draft his year again.

Perversely our late picks are generally looking ok. But our recent record with our early picks has been underwhelming.

And Gresham was a pick 18 and so not that early.

[Johnny Member]

Reality must be faced - Jack Steven is the only 'offensive' on-baller we have.

He's very good, but that's it. We have no one else. And Savage is our best 'offensive' defender FFS!


We're currently well coached. The coaching panel has been able to mask the glaring lack of offensive sting in our team. The problem is, that once the 'strong' efforts and 'pleasing' intensity' (and all the other mind numbing regurgitated cliches that Richo trots out) dry up - we're stuffed because we simply do not have the players capable of winning contests and hurting the opposition with it once they get it.

Acres isn't the answer. He may be one day, but right now he's an average utility with no real stand out strengths to his game other than unpredictability. And that's only because he doesn't know WTF he's doing - and neither do his team mates.

Billings couldn't win a contest in the AFLW, so putting him in the midfield isn't going to fix it.

Dropping Dunstan isn't the answer because at least he, Armo and Ross don't blatantly lose contests regularly. They don't win too many which is our problem - but they stem the bleeding by not losing too many. I know it's frustrating having 3 slow guys in the middle who aren't great users, but until someone quicker and with better skills comes along that can actually win contests and compete, they're our best hope of hanging in there until Jack Steven and Riewoldt can put on brilliant individual performances and pinch the game for us.


If you don't match the opposition's pressure, you'll get beaten. Same applies for everyone. It's the cornerstone of every single premiership team ever - intensity and effort. Without it, good teams get beaten and suddenly don't look that good anymore.

A weaker team can beat a better team if they out pressure them. Which is what we've done on occasions.


But.....


If a weaker team comes up against a better team - and the better also brings their A-Grade pressure game, guess who wins?


And that's the crux of it for mine.


We're not very good. We have a glaring lack of top shelf players. So when we come up against a good team that also brings a high pressure and intensity game to the table, we get beaten. I think our high pressure game has masked the problems that we have with our list.

[desertsaint]

well reality has hit a few in the face. massive overrating of where we were at before the game, but as always the pendulum has swung back into another alternate reality where we are full of spuds. we are a mid-tier team on the up. we'll have our good and our bad games. yesterday Melbourne played as good as i've seen them. we had a shocker. it happens. 2018 is when we can realistically expect to compete for finals. anything before then is a bonus.

[longtimesaint]

well reality has hit a few in the face. massive overrating of where we were at before the game, but as always the pendulum has swung back into another alternate reality where we are full of spuds. we are a mid-tier team on the up. we'll have our good and our bad games. yesterday Melbourne played as good as i've seen them. we had a shocker. it happens. 2018 is when we can realistically expect to compete for finals. anything before then is a bonus.

I think the club has always realised that we are still building and last years trading showed that.
We secured two first round picks which we should use to further strengthen the list.

[Johnny Member]

well reality has hit a few in the face. massive overrating of where we were at before the game, but as always the pendulum has swung back into another alternate reality where we are full of spuds. we are a mid-tier team on the up. we'll have our good and our bad games. yesterday Melbourne played as good as i've seen them. we had a shocker. it happens. 2018 is when we can realistically expect to compete for finals. anything before then is a bonus.

I think the club has always realised that we are still building and last years trading showed that.
We secured two first round picks which we should use to further strengthen the list.

I hope the club sees where we're at.

And as a result, will need to reconsider their 'blueprint for success'. Top 4 by next year isn't going to happen, unless we find at least 2 A-grader between now and then.

As per the OP, I don't believe we will unearth even one from our existing list.


It's got to come from Gresham, Carlisle, McCartin, Billings or Steele IMO.


Hopefully all 5 will rise to that level, but I don't think they will. Not this season anyway.


I think the club's 'blueprint foe success' was good at the time - but it didn't factor such low return rates for amount of drafting we did.

We bottomed out, had 3 top 5 picks, traded out club legends for picks, traded out picks for more picks! The expectation clearly was, that 4 years down the track we'd have unearthed the list with a core group capable of winning a flag. This obviously means having some stars amongst it.

We don't have the stars.

[saintsRrising]

The original plan was to have landed a gun FA for this season. It did not happen.

I have always been skeptical of our ability to actually land a gun FA and I indeed doubt that it will ever happen. At best we may get a gun restricted FA, but much more likely if we are to land a gun is that gun now needs to most definitely be a mid, we will have to trade.

Hearing Finnis speaking on the radio this week reading between the lines of his words it sounding very much that the club will be trying to trade in an elite player next year. IMO that would cost probably two first round picks.

We have built a list with depth, but not a list with top end talent. Our list is now at the stage that adding extra depth players will achieve little. To get better now we need true elite talent. Currently we are a cake with no icing.

However our newest elite player Jack Steven was drafted way back in 2007. Let me repeat that, our newest elite player was drafted in 2007. That is only one elite player in ten years.

Only one elite player gained whether by draft or trade or free agency. We have certainly gained lots of good capable AFL players in recent seasons. But new elite talent has remained ZERO.

There are some potentials, but they only remain that. Potentials.

This is not the "right stuff" of building a premiership team. Indeed sadly it is probably not even the stuff of building a finals team and moreso in a year where to make the 8 it will be the most difficult that I can recall.

Unless some of those potentials come with a rush now we are looking to only be a competitive rather than a competition leading team.



The Potentials:

Can Carlisle get back to where he was?
Can Freeman at last play, and at a high level?
Can Stevens continue to improve?
Can Billings take the next step?
Can Paddy get fitter and better?
Can Acres show more than glimpses?

That is a lot of uncertainty.

[prwilkinson]

well reality has hit a few in the face. massive overrating of where we were at before the game, but as always the pendulum has swung back into another alternate reality where we are full of spuds. we are a mid-tier team on the up. we'll have our good and our bad games. yesterday Melbourne played as good as i've seen them. we had a shocker. it happens. 2018 is when we can realistically expect to compete for finals. anything before then is a bonus.

Yep. Ideally with a couple of A graders added to the list as well.

[longtimesaint]

The bulldogs won the flag last year but do not really have much elite talent with the exception of Bont.
A great team and game style is what wins premierships.
Back in the early 90's we had Lockett, Loewe, Harvey and Winmar,
That was four elite players but we still only played a couple of finals and no prelim or grand final.

[Johnny Member]

The bulldogs won the flag last year but do not really have much elite talent with the exception of Bont.
A great team and game style is what wins premierships.
Back in the early 90's we had Lockett, Loewe, Harvey and Winmar,
That was four elite players but we still only played a couple of finals and no prelim or grand final.

Boyd was AA in 2015.
Murphy was AA Captain in 2015.
Stringer was AA in 2015.
Wood was AA in 2015.

The Bont is a superstar.
Boyd was a No. 1 Draft Pick that is paid $1m per year - and it showed why when he was BoG in the GF.
Johannisen is a superstar.
Liberatore is the best clearnace player in the comp.
Cameron Mooney believed Dalhaus is potentially 'pound for pound' the best player in the comp (averaged 26 disposals and 5 tackles for two straight years!)
Morris is an absolute champion.


There's a lot of myths about the Bulldogs. And them not having a good dose of elite talent is one of them.



Let's put some perscpective on this.....

Luke Dalhaus is a gun. But rarely mentioned when talking about 'elite' players in the comp, let alone at the Bulldogs (except by Cam Mooney). But compare him to Jack Steven in 2016...



21 Games 22
10.9 Kicks Per Game 14.1
15.1 Handballs Per Game 13.9
26.0 Disposals Per Game 28.0
3.2 Marks Per Game 2.8
0.4 Goals Per Game 0.6
0.4 Behinds Per Game 0.3
5.4 Tackles Per Game 5.6
4.0 Inside 50s Per Game 5.3
0.4 Goal Assists Per Game 0.8
1.2 Frees For Per Game 1.2
1.0 Frees Against Per Game 0.6
10.9 Contested Possessions Per Game 11.4
15.3 Uncontested Possessions Per Game 16.2
17.9 Effective Disposals Per Game 19.6
68.8% Disposal Efficiency % Per Game 70%
3.0 Clangers Per Game 3.0
0.3 Marks Inside 50 Per Game 0.3
3.4 Clearances Per Game 5.5
0.6 Rebound 50s Per Game 1.2
1.0 One Percenters Per Game 0.8
75.8 Time On Ground % Per Game 82.0



They're very, very close. Almost identical with Steven being ahead by about 2 good possessions each week.


Steven is out best player by a country mile. By an absolute mile! Yet the other, with very, very similar numbers to him, is a very good player for them - but probably just scrapes into their top 5 players. Steven s*** in our B&F, whilst Dalhaus didn't even finish in their top 5!


That puts some perspective on where our list is at in terms of top end talent.

[longtimesaint]

The bulldogs won the flag last year but do not really have much elite talent with the exception of Bont.
A great team and game style is what wins premierships.
Back in the early 90's we had Lockett, Loewe, Harvey and Winmar,
That was four elite players but we still only played a couple of finals and no prelim or grand final.

Boyd was AA in 2015.
Murphy was AA Captain in 2015.
Stringer was AA in 2015.
Wood was AA in 2015.

The Bont is a superstar.
Boyd was a No. 1 Draft Pick that is paid $1m per year - and it showed why when he was BoG in the GF.
Johannisen is a superstar.
Liberatore is the best clearnace player in the comp.
Cameron Mooney believed Dalhaus is potentially 'pound for pound' the best player in the comp (averaged 26 disposals and 5 tackles for two straight years!)
Morris is an absolute champion.


There's a lot of myths about the Bulldogs. And them not having a good dose of elite talent is one of them.



Let's put some p[erscpective on this.....

Luke Dalhaus is a gun. But rarely mentioned when talking about 'elite' players in the comp, let alone at the Bulldogs (except by Cam Mooney). But compare him to Jack Steven...

Luke Dahlhaus Name Jack Steven
Western Bulldogs Team St Kilda Saints
Midfield, Forward Position Midfield
116 Career Games 135
Geelong Falcons Origin Geelong Falcons
August 21, 1992 Date of Birth March 28, 1990
Turned 24 in 2016 Age Turned 26 in 2016
179cm Height 180cm
77kg Weight 83kg
2011 National Draft Last Drafted In 2007 National Draft
Round 4, Pick #70 Last Draft Position Round 3, Pick #42
Western Bulldogs Last Drafted By St Kilda Saints
2016 Stats for Season 2016
21 Games 22
10.9 Kicks Per Game 14.1
15.1 Handballs Per Game 13.9
26.0 Disposals Per Game 28.0
3.2 Marks Per Game 2.8
0.4 Goals Per Game 0.6
0.4 Behinds Per Game 0.3
5.4 Tackles Per Game 5.6
0 Hitouts Per Game 0
4.0 Inside 50s Per Game 5.3
0.4 Goal Assists Per Game 0.8
1.2 Frees For Per Game 1.2
1.0 Frees Against Per Game 0.6
10.9 Contested Possessions Per Game 11.4
15.3 Uncontested Possessions Per Game 16.2
17.9 Effective Disposals Per Game 19.6
68.8% Disposal Efficiency % Per Game 70%
3.0 Clangers Per Game 3.0
0.1 Contested Marks Per Game 0.1
0.3 Marks Inside 50 Per Game 0.3
3.4 Clearances Per Game 5.5
0.6 Rebound 50s Per Game 1.2
1.0 One Percenters Per Game 0.8
0.4 Bounces Per Game 0.7
75.8 Time On Ground % Per Game 82.0

Al this means little if all your players have absolute intensity and are a committed team.
Watch the Round 18 match last year when we beat the dogs 4 weeks before the finals.

[saintsRrising]

Boyd was a No. 1 Draft Pick that is paid $1m per year - and it showed why when he was BoG in the GF.

Have to disagree on Boyd. He is not elite, and will not be elite. The Doggies chased him as a key forward and he has now fallen into the niche of ruck/forward and back up ruck and has failed to live up to the hype. Yes his GF was good, but was against weak opposition where he was playing. His GF was right game at the right time against the right opponents.

Doggies know this and this is why they chased Cloke. If Boyd was the superstar that you make out they would not have picked up Cloke.

Against the Pies this weekend he was the Dogs lowest ranked players, and the second lowest ranked player in the game.



However yes the Doggies have more top-end talent than us, and importantly they have better midfield talent and it is good midfield talent that matters the most.