How Well Have We Done?

[damienc]

Ok. Here's the question:

How well did we do in the two drafts in 2016? The answer is very, very, very well indeed.

Last night was the icing on the cake, in my view. Sure. We didn't have a first round pick, but this was a pretty deep draft.

The chances of getting our hands on a good player at pick 25 and beyond were extremely good.

It could not have played out any better.

Ben Long. He comes from a great footballing pedigree. His uncle an absolute champion, one of the best our game has produced.

This kid is a swingman. He can play in defence. He can play forward and kick goals. He is ferocious in the contest, quick, elusive with very clean skills. What I really like about Long is his character.

Overlooked in the 2015 AFL draft, Long just got on with it and got better every time he stepped up in class. He starred for NT in the division two under 18 championships, was one of the best players in the Allies game and starred when he played for Footscray in the VFL. He even kieked six goals against the filth in the preliminary final..woo hoo.

I reckon this kid is AFL ready. We did good.

Josh Battle. This was a big slider in my view. Much along the lines of Hugh Goddard. He was being touted as a first round pick, maybe even top 10. Regarded as the best tall forward in the draft.

How he slid to the 30s is beyond me but I am sure glad he did. What I really like about Battle, apart from marking and leading ability, is his endurance. This kid can run and that is pretty unusual for a forward. Roo has endurance. It is one of the characteristics that sets him apart and helped make him a champion. I am not comparing Battle to Rooey but Battle has a big tank. Maybe he can develop into a midfielder. Even if he doesn't he will boost our forward stocks. So again all good.

Ed Phillips. A midfielder who is quick and skilled. Can kick with both feet. Liked his highlights reel a lot. Apparently he is another player who got better as the season progressed. Put McLuggage out of business in a TAC finals game. Outside run and carry. Another good get in my view.

So, when you put these three together with Stevens, Steele, Carlisle and Brown plus our existing list we are in pretty good shape. Some might even say excellent shape.

Can't wait for season 2017 and all of its possibilities. Not talking it up. Just optimistic about the future.

[MC Gusto]

I concur


Good post

[cwrcyn]

I really have no idea. Highlights packages of players can be very deceiving, and I've been sold on a few over the years that never went on with it (like Josh Saunders) and got it completely wrong about others, like Luke Dunstan. Only those of us who watch the U18s regularly can make any judgement, and the phantoms drafts, once they get past the first round, are really like throwing darts at a dart board when you consider how many they get completely wrong. And these are people who actually watch these players play. Elsaugh has been pretty good in the past three drafts, so I'll just have to hope he's got it right. Statistically, one of the three selections will make it as a B-Grader. On that note, Battle is in for a battle to make the grade, with key forwards having a very low probability of success if selected outside the top ten. I am most surprised about his selection out of the three, as we seemingly don't have a need for that type of player, and next year's top dozen being packed with high quality key position players

[Waltzing St Kilda]

Who's new for 2017?

Carlisle
Brown
Steele
K. Stevens
Long
Battle
Phillips
Maybe Freeman

[SaintPav]

I really have no idea. Highlights packages of players can be very deceiving, and I've been sold on a few over the years that never went on with it (like Josh Saunders) and got it completely wrong about others, like Luke Dunstan. Only those of us who watch the U18s regularly can make any judgement, and the phantoms drafts, once they get past the first round, are really like throwing darts at a dart board when you consider how many they get completely wrong. And these are people who actually watch these players play. Elsaugh has been pretty good in the past three drafts, so I'll just have to hope he's got it right. Statistically, one of the three selections will make it as a B-Grader. On that note, Battle is in for a battle to make the grade, with key forwards having a very low probability of success if selected outside the top ten. I am most surprised about his selection out of the three, as we seemingly don't have a need for that type of player, and next year's top dozen being packed with high quality key position players

This does not sound very logical. They have developed a methodology and they stick to it.

According to a Jaxons we rated Battle at pick 21. What were they supposed to do when he was still availablle? Pass on him because of what might happen next year. Battle appears to be a steal and he appears to have a tank which means he might have the potential to develop into something else.

There are no guarantees. McCartin has had issues, Membrey might be a one season wonder and Bruce has struggled the last 18 months.

Do you even know what KPP are available next season?

[Vazelos]

I think Long is a type of player that we lack and I'm happy the recruiters have identified it.
It's a type of agility, speed of thought and reaction type with slippery pace that you find in Indigenous players.
Players from Darwin have that fair also.
It's the one thing our forward line lacked when it hit the deck and I think our recruiters nailed it.
At Pick 23 the elite players in the most sought after positions are gone so go for a player in positions that clubs won't sell their top picks for and get a high quality player. I like their strategy and I will not be surprised if this kid gets into the senior team next year if he shows himself.
Josh Battle maybe a slider we are told, that's always exciting.
He has his work cut out initially to make it but good acquisition it seems.
We will know for sure in 2 to 3 years time.

[cwrcyn]

Connor Ballenden, Nathan Richards and Jarrod Brander, are three tall forwards expected to go early next year, according to Brenton Sanderson, AFL Academy coach.

[cwrcyn]

Other key position players highly rated for next year are Noah Balta, Hayden Mclean, Sam Taylor, Tom DeKoning Oscar Clavariono, and Callum Coleman-Jones. Perhaps you can keep an eye on them, SaintPav, and let us know what you think

[SaintPav]

You take what you can get when you get the chance.

[saintspremiers]

Must say I'm disappointed Powell-Pepper wasn't available for us. If nothing else, it's a great name.

I also hope that we don't do the Aboriginal jinx on Long. We haven't been much chop with Aboriginal players recently

[bigcarl]

There are no guarantees. McCartin has had issues, Membrey might be a one season wonder and Bruce has struggled the last 18 months.

Correct. It's good to have pressure on all positions.

Also, just because the kid appears a natural forward doesn't mean he has to make a career there. He may just be a natural footballer.

There are plenty of instances of players of players who have made the transition from defence to attack and vice versa.

Chips, I think, came to us as a forward and developed into a terrific defender. G-Train held down full back for a while before becoming a 100-goal full forward.

Not comparing him to either of those at this stage, of course, but If he's good enough he'll make it in some capacity.

[Wombat15]

Connor Ballenden, Nathan Richards and Jarrod Brander, are three tall forwards expected to go early next year, according to Brenton Sanderson, AFL Academy coach.

Pretty sure they are all linked to academies. I know ballenden is.

[jaxons]

Must say I'm disappointed Powell-Pepper wasn't available for us. If nothing else, it's a great name.

I also hope that we don't do the Aboriginal jinx on Long. We haven't been much chop with Aboriginal players recently

Gresham is going ok with us isn't he?

[fugazi]

I think Long is a type of player that we lack and I'm happy the recruiters have identified it.
It's a type of agility, speed of thought and reaction type with slippery pace that you find in Indigenous players.
Players from Darwin have that fair also.
It's the one thing our forward line lacked when it hit the deck and I think our recruiters nailed it.
At Pick 23 the elite players in the most sought after positions are gone so go for a player in positions that clubs won't sell their top picks for and get a high quality player. I like their strategy and I will not be surprised if this kid gets into the senior team next year if he shows himself.
Josh Battle maybe a slider we are told, that's always exciting.
He has his work cut out initially to make it but good acquisition it seems.
We will know for sure in 2 to 3 years time.

Good argument.
We have a fair share of inside mids, small forwards, rebounding defenders.
Long looks a different type with some X factor that we need.
Particularly like his attack on the ball and has a good handball out of traffic.
Good pick up for our team which does need some weird s*** in the mix.

[sunsaint]

Must say I'm disappointed Powell-Pepper wasn't available for us. If nothing else, it's a great name.

I also hope that we don't do the Aboriginal jinx on Long. We haven't been much chop with Aboriginal players recently

Gresham is going ok with us isn't he?

Out of interest
What did you think of himmelberg siding out to the 50's

[Con Gorozidis]

Must say I'm disappointed Powell-Pepper wasn't available for us. If nothing else, it's a great name.

I also hope that we don't do the Aboriginal jinx on Long. We haven't been much chop with Aboriginal players recently

What about the Ranga jinx?
Murdoch gone. Lynch left us. Gamble was no good. Daniel Archer.
Havent had a good Ranga since Jason Gram and then that ended badly.

[sendmehomehappy]

Ray Connellan will fix that Ranga Jinx!

[SuperDuper]

6.5/10

Last year I made a judgement of the draft based not on the players we got, but on whether the night panned out as we hoped. We hoped Gresham would make it to our first pick... that was our best case scenario. he did. Then we hoped that we could get White with our second, not really expecting him to make it to the 40's. We also hoped we would not have an early bid for Rice, so we did not mess up our chances with White.

All this occurred, so I gave it a 10/10 for how things went on the night. There is a reason why our team were high fiving.

This year, we dreamed that Florent would get to 23 although must have known it was not likely at all, but we clearly hoped SPP would make it.. this was more realistic as it seems different clubs rated him differently and so if everything went in a certain way, he may have made it.

Getting Long at 23 was, by these criteria, our worst case scenario because we knew he would make it to 23. We hoped someone earlier on our board would make it.

I am not saying for a second that Long was a bad selection. Just that we did not get lucky with a player we rated higher sliding to us.

With Battle we got a player we rated highly for 39 which is good, but still not as good as getting White in the 40s last year who we rated in the teens

And with pick 56 we may have hoped to get someone in the low 30s on our board, considering how different all boards are at that stage... but none slid to us

So... I only give us a 6.5/10 this year.

Again, not a reflection of our choices, which could only be made from those available at the time of our pick... just a reflection of how the cards fell this year compared to last year

[cwrcyn]

I think Cedric Cox being snaffled by Brisbane one pick before us wouldn't have pleased our recruiters, either. It's an assessment I tend to agree with. They were clearly more pleased with last year, and the usual 'in -the-know' forumites have been quiet since the draft. We didn't get who we wanted this year, and some other clubs really cleaned up. Next year becomes critical, with two first rounders, most likely in the 8-12 range. We need to hold those picks and nail them.

[footynut]

I think Cedric Cox being snaffled by Brisbane one pick before us wouldn't have pleased our recruiters, either. It's an assessment I tend to agree with. They were clearly more pleased with last year, and the usual 'in -the-know' forumites have been quiet since the draft. We didn't get who we wanted this year, and some other clubs really cleaned up. Next year becomes critical, with two first rounders, most likely in the 8-12 range. We need to hold those picks and nail them.

We need to hold one of those picks & nail it! I'm happy for them to trade one of them and bring in a quality young A grade mid fielder.

[SaintPav]

According to Jaxons we were never going to get Cedric Cox.

Florent
SPP
Long

Jaxons also said that we had Long and Battle at 17 and 21 respectively.

[saint64]

Must say I'm disappointed Powell-Pepper wasn't available for us. If nothing else, it's a great name.

I also hope that we don't do the Aboriginal jinx on Long. We haven't been much chop with Aboriginal players recently

Gresham is going ok with us isn't he?

Exactly!

[Rocket]

The simplest way to summarise our trading. Long and Battle are both bonuses as they are picks we didn't have and now wait a year for result of Hawthorn's first rounder.

[Bluthy]

The simplest way to summarise our trading. Long and Battle are both bonuses as they are picks we didn't have and now wait a year for result of Hawthorn's first rounder.

No we traded our first pick out this year to get these picks - they aren't "bonuses". We have taken a risk that Hawks won't finish finals otherwise we will have traded down our first rounder this year - which would have given another year of development into an elite skilled kid and helped our flag tilt out earlier. If they start thinking these are "bonus" picks then we are screwed as they won't do the proper due diligence. If you sell the pig, by god you better bring home the bacon and not worthless magic beans.

By definition, we won't know how good our recruiting is until probably 3 or even 4 years down the track. Even the Carlisle & Gresham trade is still very up in the air. Gresho exceeded expectations but he isn't the only recent player to look outstanding in his first year and then struggle *cough* Lonie *cough* sinclair. Carlisle needs to show his body can hold up to the rigors of AFL footy year after year and also not do any more moronic things. I don't think Carlisle ever completed a full season in the firsts at Essendon. He needs to show he can get through a whole season including finals.

[gurubob101]

Unlike the last few years the cards didn't fall our way this time around on draft night. There was no Blaine Boekhurst factor as Carlton got their ducks in a row for the first time ever and this years selections went much closer to the predictions made in the reputable phantom drafts than would usually be the case. This left us a few spots shy of the players we really would have liked to get but overall we've still had a very good trade period with the inclusion of Steele and Stevens and the promising Irish boys. Only time will tell if we wasted our first pick on Long but he does seem to have a bit of flair and a nose for a goal which is something we really need to add to the mix. There's no doubt that the pressure is on to get our two first rounders right next year, seeing as we effectively decided to bypass the first round this season, but you'd have to assume the planning for the 2017 trade period is already well underway. I reckon we had at least a 7/10 trade period which is a bit down on the past two years but still very respectable.