WTF Hawks..!

[Linton Lodger]

I understand that Kennett's opinion is that they have done absolutely brilliantly!!!

Perhaps Kennett should get back to running & sucking funding for the beyond relevant or beyond effective Beyond Blue. The man is a moron and any of his opining should be avoided.

[longtimesaint]

HS gave Hawks a top rating while the saints only got a thumbs up

This is a short sighted view based on landing JOM and not counting the cost.
first pick in this years draft is 88 and next year not much better.
They have traded out Mitchell and Lewis who were first and second in the B&F, and it remains to be seen if Tom Mitchell and JOM do as well in 2017.
Their young players are not outstanding, and they have a lot of senior players who are in the twilight of their careers.
They looked slow this year and were very lucky to make the finals and I cannot see them in the eight next year.

[Johnny Member]

I don't know why everyone is so cocky about Hawks bottoming out. They have the best coach of the modern era and even possibly the best coach ever. Clarkson has a brilliant system and is always evolving it to stay ahead of the pack despite all their IP leaking out every year in coaches and players. He is the master and unpacking the oppo and stopping their strengths. Even last year with a lot of things going wrong and not playing great footy for big sections of the year they were one kick away from a prelim where they would have got to play their bunnies the Swans.

Speaking for myself, I wouldn't say I'm 'cocky' about them bottoming out. I just think it's inevitable. It's the way the system works. As I said in previous posts, everyone 'bottoms out'. AFL assistance and/or drafting is what determines how deep that bottom out is, and how long it lasts for.

Alastair Clarkson is a genius football coach - but a flawed individual. He's violent and can't control his temper. He's not overly popular. But he's winning, so he doesn't get questioned. Hawthorn have had an incredible group of leaders on-field for nearly a decade, and they've also teamed Fagan up with Clarkson to manage his temperament. It's been the perfect blend.

But it's over. Fagan has gone, as has half the freak on-field leadership group, with another chunk of them to leave next year.

The group has changed, and it simply won't be as good.


Clarkson, no doubt, built an incredible system and evolved it well enough to stay ahead of the pack - but as we saw this year, when his cattle wasn't at the upper elite level for the first time in 7-8 years, it wasn't good enough.

Hawthorn and their fans may scream 'but we were a kick off a prelim!!' - but that mentality is fraught with danger. You need to look at reality and the bigger picture, not just the scoreboard when assessing where you're really at. And the reality is that were only 2 games off 7th spot, and didn't win a final. They won 5 games under a goal.

Clarkson may be a great coach, and I think he is - but without the cattle he's had over the last decade, his coaching ability won't be enough. He may have the best system in the world, but without Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis etc. etc. to carry it out so effectively, things might be tough for him.

They have mortgaged themselves to the hilt to get JOM - its unbelievably brave. But there is a reason they did. IF they can get him up and running he is one of the "three players in one" types like Danger, Judd and Ablett. Brutes inside to win ball, speed, strength and smarts to break free of packs and then classy delivery to hit up targets. Suddenly its like having 20 men on the field.

I know he's seen as a huge talent, and he may well be. But in 44 games next to Gary Ablett, he averaged 21 disposals a game. Good numbers, but it still remains a possibility he's not the world's best.

What will be hilarious is if Hawks are up there again and JOM is playing really well, will be everyone scratching there head and saying "Gee they have been lucky and getting lucky umpire decisions and just got JOM at the right time with GC going s*** and boy they were lucky - so much luck"

What an odd thing to say?

Firstly, what does 'up there' mean? Are we saying playing finals is success now?

Are you saying that finishing 6-8th is successful? Are you saying that if they don't win the flag, but win a final they've been a success?

Remember, they'll lose Burgoyne, Hodge and Gibson next year too, and don't have any picks in this year's or next year's draft. So anything they've done this pre-season, won't be really felt until 2-3 years time.


And in terms of luck, I think people would only talk about luck if they felt luck had played a part. And until it happens, we can't predict it. Strange thing to say.

They are being incredibly bold - its fly high or crash. And even if JOM is a bust, they will back themselves to develop internally and their brilliant system to hold up despite a lower calibre of average player - soldier in, soldier out.

How did these 'soldiers' go this year?

Remember, Mitchell and Lewis were 1 and 2 in their B&F - but these other soldiers you talk of couldn't make a difference. Gunston kicked 50 goals and Rioli 47 - so I think you may be overrating their 'brilliant system'. If the system of internally developing young guys was really good, surely with their 'top 6' standing up as they did, they'd have been able to step up?

There's very little evidence to suggest they have a good internal system for developing players.

I mean, why else would you need to poach key players every year if you were developing your own?

[saintbrat]

Saints heist - ticked off by the AFL
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/t ... 75f73cc378

THE AFL has ticked off on St Kilda’s draft heist of Hawthorn because both clubs agreed to the deal “with their eyes wide open”.

Up to eight rivals were bewildered at the swap of picks, which is guaranteed to net the Saints a minimum win of 848 draft points.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If the Hawks follow Fremantle’s unexpected crash down the ladder next season, the Saints could end up 2863 points in front — nearly the equivalent of a No. 1 draft pick for free.

In a deal short on fanfare but big on industry interest, Hawthorn last Friday swapped picks 23, 36 and its first pick in next year’s draft for picks 10 and 68.

The Herald Sun reported last year that a discrepancy of more than 200 points would trigger alarm bells and was unlikely to be accepted by the AFL.

But the AFL said that because the deal wasn’t tied to any other and with it evident the Hawks were targeting pick 10 to land Jaeger O’Meara, it was comfortable with the lopsided trade.

“It was a commercial decision for St Kilda to get involved,” a league spokesman said.

“Hawthorn didn’t have to go through with it, but they did.”

One club official suspected there were more “dodgy deals” done this year than ever before.

“Ken (AFL integrity officer Ken Wood) can query you when you’re out 25 points and moving from 65 to 67,” a list manager said.

“And all of a sudden this (Saints-Hawks trade) goes through — 1000 points different. I couldn’t understand it.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
One club said the Hawks had “sold the club’s future for two years” just to land the Suns’ midfielder and struck the deal with St Kilda out of desperation.

Hawthorn does not enter next month’s draft until pick 88 and they have already punted their first two picks in next year’s draft.

They are scheduled to enter the 2017 talent pool with the Giants’ second-round pick.

A STUNNING SWAP

HAWTHORN secured picks 10 + 68 = 1454 points.

ST KILDA secured picks 23 + 36 + 2017 pick 1-18 = between 2302 and 4317 points.

If Hawks win 2017 flag, Saints win trade by 848 points (equivalent of pick 22 for free).

If Hawks finish fifth in 2017, as they did this year, Saints win trade by 1024 points (equivalent of pick 17).

If Hawks get 2017 wooden spoon, Saints win trade by 2863 points (equivalent of pick 1-2).

[bigcarl]

Saints heist - ticked off by the AFL
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/t ... 75f73cc378

stranger things season 2e AFL.

But the AFL said that because the deal wasn’t tied to any other and with it evident the Hawks were targeting pick 10 to land Jaeger O’Meara, it was comfortable with the lopsided trade.

“It was a commercial decision for St Kilda to get involved,” a league spokesman said.

“Hawthorn didn’t have to go through with it, but they did.”

One club official suspected there were more “dodgy deals” done this year than ever before.

“Ken (AFL integrity officer Ken Wood) can query you when you’re out 25 points and moving from 65 to 67,” a list manager said.

“And all of a sudden this (Saints-Hawks trade) goes through — 1000 points different. I couldn’t understand it.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
One club said the Hawks had “sold the club’s future for two years” just to land the Suns’ midfielder and struck the deal with St Kilda out of desperation.

Hawthorn does not enter next month’s draft until pick 88 and they have already punted their first two picks in next year’s draft.

They are scheduled to enter

ST KILDA secured picks 23 + 36 + 2017 pick 1-18 = between 2302 and 4317 points.

If Hawks win 2017 flag, Saints win trade by 848 points (equivalent of pick 22 for free).

If Hawks finish fifth in 2017, as they did this year, Saints win trade by 1024 points (equivalent of pick 17).

If Hawks get 2017 wooden spoon, Saints win trade by 2863 points (equivalent of pick 1-2).

Thank you Gilligan. Big win for Saints

[stonecold]

Seriously, we have no right to question Hawthorn, let nature take it's course, we should be thanking them!!!!!

Easy to deal with!!!!!

For what it's worth, if your fairdinkum, be honest and realise they will still finish ahead of us next year!!!!!

[Francis Urquhart]

Seriously, we have no right to question Hawthorn, let nature take it's course, we should be thanking them!!!!!

Easy to deal with!!!!!

They trust us absolutely. We trust they do. And we, we trust them absolutely - to be absolutely human.

A drowning man will cling to anything. There's nothing like a little 'motivation' to get a deal done. Right, Hawthorn?

F.U.

[loris]

Seriously, we have no right to question Hawthorn, let nature take it's course, we should be thanking them!!!!!

Easy to deal with!!!!!

They trust us absolutely. We trust they do. And we, we trust them absolutely - to be absolutely human.

A drowning man will cling to anything. There's nothing like a little 'motivation' to get a deal done. Right, Hawthorn?

F.U.

As I've head you state before F.U. ........... Trust (aka loyalty) may be good news, but it's rarely good advice..... uhh?

[snoopygirl]

The AFL have signed off on the trading of picks between ourselves & Hawthorn. Said both clubs went in with eyes wide open! Make of that what you will.

[saintspremiers]

The AFL have signed off on the trading of picks between ourselves & Hawthorn. Said both clubs went in with eyes wide open! Make of that what you will.

Whilst we are delighted with the heist, it shows the AFL yet again has zero integrity and does things at a whim and couldn't care less. I can see why other clubs are seething over this desperado deal.

It's like the Hawks have gone to Thailand and found their gorgeous girl, who is actually a bloke in everyone else's eyes, but they're so blinded in love they want him/her regardless.

As for the HUN thinking the Hawks did well shows that rag is run by (poorly) trained monkeys/AFL apologists.

IMO Gilligan and Dimwit may as well be twins

[samuraisaint]

They have won four flags and been runners up once since 2008 so experts are slow to write them off and rightly so. The Hawks obviously see a lot in O'Meara, and they did get Tom Mitchell, who is already a very good player and will be a ten year player for them. They let two players in their thirties go to free up salary space, but both of those guys finished in the top two of their B&F, so they must have faith in Jaeger.
The big question mark for them is whether Jarryd Roughead will return to the field in 2017 as he only played a handful of games this year and is so important to them as a forward-cum-ruckman. He is still only in his late 20s, absolutely dominates opposition in the ruck and is a very damaging player in the forward line.
And then, as Johnny Member said, there is Burgoyne, Hodge and Gibson who will most likely all retire at years end, but they'll still play a lot of good footy in 2017. Think they'll miss finals action in 2017, and finish 9th or 10th, but the real fall may come for them in 2018. Hope I'm wrong and they bottom out next year so that we can get a pick in the top 4 or 5 though.

[SuperDuper]

I for one recon their list is shot.

Lots of average players and you cant replace 1+2 in the B&F.

Hodge wont be the same again.
Nor Gibson.
Nor Burgoyne
Nor Roughy unfortunately.

I dont expect JOM to play the full season or be fully fit... I hope he makes it back but susect 2018 at earliest for a fully fit version.
I just cannot see them being great next year

Tich cannot replace those guys.
A alot of the rest of their list were carried along.... plenty of decent B graders and a couple a bit better than that but will be found lacking

it does not take much to slip

[Con Gorozidis]

quick list comparison:

hodge - roo
gibson - dempster
burgoyne - joey
jom - steven
Cyril - Billings
mitchell - ross
roughie* - mccartin
gunston - bruce
breust - membrey
ceglar - hickey
birchall - roberton
smith - newnes
puopolo - weller
frawley - carlisle
sicily - acres
shiels - dunstan
stratton - geary
burton - steele
hartung - gresham
mcevoy - longer
whitecross - armo

we then have four draft picks in the top 36 compared to their 1.

we are in a much stronger position.

*i hope it isnt insensitive to put a * next to roughie. I sincerely hope he comes back but it probably isnt likely. main thing is he lives. i doubt footy is even an issue for him anymore.

[desertsaint]

hodge - roo =
gibson - dempster =
burgoyne - joey -
jom - steven +
Cyril - Billings -
mitchell - ross -
roughie* - mccartin + (given roughie won't play)
gunston - bruce -
breust - membrey -
ceglar - hickey +
birchall - roberton -
smith - newnes -
puopolo - weller =
frawley - carlisle -
sicily - acres +
shiels - dunstan +
stratton - geary +
burton - steele ?
hartung - gresham =
mcevoy - longer -
whitecross - armo +

i'd expect a lot of our minuses to move to pluses over the next season or two.
Losing Mitchell and Lewis will certainly hurth them next season.

[ace]

The AFL have signed off on the trading of picks between ourselves & Hawthorn. Said both clubs went in with eyes wide open! Make of that what you will.

Hawthorn's trading team, Kelly O'Dwyer and Chris Bowen are all in need of cuisinaire sticks for Christmas.

[Con Gorozidis]

hodge - roo =
gibson - dempster =
burgoyne - joey -
jom - steven +
Cyril - Billings -
mitchell - ross -
roughie* - mccartin + (given roughie won't play)
gunston - bruce -
breust - membrey -
ceglar - hickey +
birchall - roberton -
smith - newnes -
puopolo - weller =
frawley - carlisle -
sicily - acres +
shiels - dunstan +
stratton - geary +
burton - steele ?
hartung - gresham =
mcevoy - longer -
whitecross - armo +

i'd expect a lot of our minuses to move to pluses over the next season or two.
Losing Mitchell and Lewis will certainly hurth them next season.

Agree.
If we were to do this exercise two years ago we would have been laughed off here for being even too one eyed for saintsational - it would have clearly favoured them.

But now we can make an objective list comparison with the Hawks and we stack up ok.

[loris]

i
Losing Mitchell and Lewis will certainly hurth them next season.

Your lisp is cute ds............ me loves a lisp on a boofy bloke

[ace]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/t ... 75f73cc378

THE AFL has ticked off on St Kilda’s draft heist of Hawthorn because both clubs agreed to the deal “with their eyes wide open”.

A STUNNING SWAP

HAWTHORN secured picks 10 + 68 = 1454 points.

ST KILDA secured picks 23 + 36 + 2017 pick 1-18 = between 2302 and 4317 points.

If Hawks win 2017 flag, Saints win trade by 848 points (equivalent of pick 22 for free).

If Hawks finish fifth in 2017, as they did this year, Saints win trade by 1024 points (equivalent of pick 17).

If Hawks get 2017 wooden spoon, Saints win trade by 2863 points (equivalent of pick 1-2).

Let's not carried away by the Herald Sun.

Our picks 2016 picks 23 and 36 were originally picks 22(845pts) and 31(606pts), before the AFL a priority and free agency compensation picks
Pick 10 was always pick 10
Up until now that is.

Remember we went into the 2015 draft with pick 14 but took Gresham with pick 18.
It had slipped due to queue jumping for academy player but our pick 45 gathered Brandon White at pick 40.
That had been improved because most of the queue jumping came in the form multiple second round picks.
A change to the rules will reduce the number of multiple picks being used this year for queue jumping.

So lets do the deal again estimating the true picks on the day as the draft progesses.
We give Hawthorn pick 10 which becomes pick 12 and pick 68 which becomes pick 64 so 1268pts + 101pts = 1369pts to Hawthorn
St Kilda pick 23 becomes pick 27 but pick 36 remains pick 36 = 729pts + 502pts = 1231pts to St Kilda
That values Hawthorn's 2017 1st round pick at 138 points.

If Hawthorn finishes premiers pick 18 becomes 23 = 815pts a gain to St Kilda of 677pts, values our gain at pick 28 after trades in 2017, but 24 during the draft down from HUN's pick 22
If Hawthorn finishes 5th pick 14 becomes 18 = 985pts a gain to St Kilda of 847pts, values our gain at pick 22 after trades in 2017, but 17 during the draft same as HUN's pick 17
If Hawthorn finishes bottom we get pick 1 on the day = 3000pts a gain for St Kilda of 2862pts, values our gain at pick 1-2 after trades in 2017 and during the draft same as the HUN's pick 1-2.

Not much difference once 2016 picks slip during the draft, but 2017 picks loose value too during their draft.
That then makes our points gain more valuable.
Realistically Hawthorn should finish about the same again in 2017 so we gained a late first rounder - a Gresham pick for being the banker.
As they say in the casino business, the bank always wins.

[Con Gorozidis]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/t ... 75f73cc378

THE AFL has ticked off on St Kilda’s draft heist of Hawthorn because both clubs agreed to the deal “with their eyes wide open”.

A STUNNING SWAP

HAWTHORN secured picks 10 + 68 = 1454 points.

ST KILDA secured picks 23 + 36 + 2017 pick 1-18 = between 2302 and 4317 points.

If Hawks win 2017 flag, Saints win trade by 848 points (equivalent of pick 22 for free).

If Hawks finish fifth in 2017, as they did this year, Saints win trade by 1024 points (equivalent of pick 17).

If Hawks get 2017 wooden spoon, Saints win trade by 2863 points (equivalent of pick 1-2).

Let's not carried away by the Herald Sun.

Our picks 2016 picks 23 and 36 were originally picks 22(845pts) and 31(606pts), before the AFL a priority and free agency compensation picks
Pick 10 was always pick 10
Up until now that is.

Remember we went into the 2015 draft with pick 14 but took Gresham with pick 18.
It had slipped due to queue jumping for academy player but our pick 45 gathered Brandon White at pick 40.
That had been improved because most of the queue jumping came in the form multiple second round picks.
A change to the rules will reduce the number of multiple picks being used this year for queue jumping.

So lets do the deal again estimating the true picks on the day as the draft progesses.
We give Hawthorn pick 10 which becomes pick 12 and pick 68 which becomes pick 64 so 1268pts + 101pts = 1369pts to Hawthorn
St Kilda pick 23 becomes pick 27 but pick 36 remains pick 36 = 729pts + 502pts = 1231pts to St Kilda
That values Hawthorn's 2017 1st round pick at 138 points.

If Hawthorn finishes premiers pick 18 becomes 23 = 815pts a gain to St Kilda of 677pts values our gain at pick 28 after trades in 2017 but 24 during the draft down from HUN's pick 22
If Hawthorn finishes 5th pick 14 becomes 18 = 985pts a gain to St Kilda of 847pts values our gain at pick 22 after trades in 2017 but 17 during the draft same as HUN's pick 17
If Hawthorn finishes bottom we get pick 1 on the day = 3000pts a gain for St Kilda of 2862pts values our gain at pick 1-2 during the draft same as the HUN's pick 1-2.

Not much difference once 2016 picks slip during the draft, but 2017 picks loose value too during their draft which then makes our points gain more valuable.

Thanks for that analysis. Makes is pretty clear. As long as Elshaugh and the recruiting boys do their job (i have every confidence in them) in the next 13 months then we finish ahead. The question now is by just how far....

[ace]

How did SOS of Carlton

He got picks 48, 66 and 70 from Hawthorn
Pick 48 becomes 44, 66 becomes 62, & 70 becomes 66 during the running of the 2016 draft.
362pts + 123pts + 80pts = 565 points during the draft.
That means he needs 565 points during the running of 2017 draft
That is pick 33 during the running of the 2017 draft .
For that he may need to have pick 32.
If there are as many free agency and priority picks in 2017 as 2016 that will equate to 10th on the ladder.
Betting that Hawthorn will finish 8th or lower is not smart SOS
If they finish 5th again you have blown in the ball park of 80 points.

You were the banker SOS.
You should have made a profit out of this deal not a loss.

[desertsaint]

i
Losing Mitchell and Lewis will certainly hurth them next season.

Your lisp is cute ds............ me loves a lisp on a boofy bloke

thankth lorith

[ace]

When we look at our profit from the pick 10 deal we should realise what Hawthorn and Gold Coast would do if they could do it all over again
Hawthorn would say to Gold Coast, we have pick 23 from Hill sale, 36 Hawthorn 2nd rounder, 48, 66 & 70 Hawthorn later picks upgraded through Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell sales
Take the lot including Hawthorns 2017 first rounder.
Gold Coast would then need to trade away 48, 66, 70 but the added value to Gold Coast would be the profit St Kilda made.
Gold Coast would have that extra "Gresham pick".

If Gold Coast desperately wanted pick 10 they could have come to St Kilda and said take everything Hawthorn has given us including Hawthorns 2017 1st rounder but find us a 2017 2nd round pick but better than Hawthorn's.
St Kilda wins, Gold Coast wins.

[samuraisaint]

They got 5 wins last year by less than a goal, and 6 by under 10 points. And their experienced players were the ones who led the way. How they perform in 2017 will be an extra sub-plot for St. Kilda supporters throughout the season.

[SaintPav]

[Sainter_Dad]

Gold - have your +1