Picks 23 and 36

[saintbob]

Who do we think we'll get???

[Wombat15]

Been a fan of Powell Pepper, like the way he goes about it. Galluci's athleticism is an interesting one and Jy Simpkin as a genuine goal sneak would be handy. I Like Josh Rotham as well. Although if a highly rated prospect falls, grab them and ask questions later.

[SMS]

I have faith in our recruiting team. Ill be on board. Their record recently is fantastic.
White 40
Sinclair rookie
Acres 19
Dunstan 18
McKenzie 22
Lonie 37

[shrodes]

Who do we think we'll get???

Any Jacks in the range?

[Con Gorozidis]

I Bloody exciting having these picks. Low enough to make it interesting and high enough to get good players in.
This is where Elshaugh and his team will really earn their money!
Looking fwd to it.

[fugazi]

So its 23, 36, and 61 for our live picks

Probably an upgrade for Blake with late pick?

[Wombat15]

61 could turn into 52 after GWS que jumping so 3 handy picks.

[cwrcyn]

For picks in the 36 to 45 range, this is our recent form

43 Sam Crocker
35 Dan Markworth
37 jack Newnes
42 Jimmy Webster
40 Brodie Murdoch
43 Josh Saunders
41 Jack Lonie
40 Brandon White

So......roughly a 50/50 chance of us getting a good player this year at pick 36

[cwrcyn]

If you look at the 25 - 30 range, it's pretty much the same odds, if not worse

[dragit]

For picks in the 36 to 45 range, this is our recent form

43 Sam Crocker
35 Dan Markworth
37 jack Newnes
42 Jimmy Webster
40 Brodie Murdoch
43 Josh Saunders
41 Jack Lonie
40 Brandon White

So......roughly a 50/50 chance of us getting a good player this year at pick 36

I would disagree on 50/50

Only two of those players look to have made a career so far… Lonie & White still have it all to do.

Same with this list

White 40
Sinclair rookie
Acres 19
Dunstan 18
McKenzie 22
Lonie 37

Only Dunstan & Acres have cemented a spot at AFL level so far.

I like the look of all three of McKenzie, Sinclair and Lonie but they could just as easily not make it… if we find a good player or two in the draft this year plus Stevens, Steele, Brown & Carlisle are regulars then it will be really hard for those guys to force their way into the side.

[cwrcyn]

Interestingly, someone a while back ran a statistical analysis of the first round of the draft over 12 years and found that the hit rate was a touch under 50%. I'd love to see the same analysis for each round of the draft

[cwrcyn]

from 2006 to 2102 drafts, in the range between 23 and 40, these were the number of hits each year

2006 7/17
2007 5/17
2008 12/17
2009 10/17
2010 11/17
2011 7/17
2012 8/17

in total 60/119, so that's 50%. So that's where it sits for us this year for pick 23 & 36.

[Wrote for Luck]

For picks in the 36 to 45 range, this is our recent form

43 Sam Crocker
35 Dan Markworth
37 jack Newnes
42 Jimmy Webster
40 Brodie Murdoch
43 Josh Saunders
41 Jack Lonie
40 Brandon White

So......roughly a 50/50 chance of us getting a good player this year at pick 36

So that's two s***, two good, two s***, two good. We are now due two s***.

[cwrcyn]

However, the pick 23 to 40 analysis has a pattern of two sh**, three good, two sh**. Could be we're going into another three-good phase? If it's a strong draft like some say, then we have reason to be hopeful. One thing for sure, there'll be no more Brad Howard/Nick Winmar type selections from our current recruiting team

[Impatient Sainter]

With our current recruitment team I would raise our chance of sucess with both picks to 90%. Almost garuntee they will get it right.

I dont think I would be carrying Fisher over to the rookie draft time for him to retire. The club need to try and find a genuine forward/ruckman at some stage.

[saynta]

With our current recruitment team I would raise our chance of sucess with both picks to 90%. Almost garuntee they will get it right.

I dont think I would be carrying Fisher over to the rookie draft time for him to retire. The club need to try and find a genuine forward/ruckman at some stage.

Lewis Pearce is our best hope there.

I believe the club has a lot of faith in the boy.

[evertonfc]

Hope we go for the best two sliders with 23 and 36. It's still the best strategy.

I reckon that can equate to a pick 15 and a pick 25.

Eg: Applied to last year's draft, I rated Kieran Collins as the best slider for where our first pick now is (he went #26) and for our second pick, any of Harley Balic (would have been my pick at the time), Riley Bonner and Rhys Mathieson were available.

So there is plenty that gets left behind by recruiters thinking they're "gaming" the system by picking a Blaine Boekhorst or Tom Doedee with an early pick.

[saintbob]

I like the look of Jarrad Berry and Will Drew

[Wombat15]

Getting Berry would be a steal if he falls at 23.

[saintspremiers]

Powell-Pepper has a great name. If it's a 50/50 bet at least you've got the right name in the bag from the start!

Also he looks like the musician Paul Kelly

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2016-06-05/u18 ... how-for-wa

[saintbob]

Getting Berry would be a steal if he falls at 23.

Yeah I know some of the phantom drafts have him going as early as pick 11, and some as late as pick 38.

Fingers crossed he's available @ 23

[suss]

Getting Berry would be a steal if he falls at 23.

Yeah I know some of the phantom drafts have him going as early as pick 11, and some as late as pick 38.

Fingers crossed he's available @ 23

Lock him in at 22 then.

[minneapolis]

So its 23, 36, and 61 for our live picks

Probably an upgrade for Blake with late pick?

Sorry Fugazi. I don't understand this comment.

[Rosco]

So its 23, 36, and 61 for our live picks

Probably an upgrade for Blake with late pick?

Sorry Fugazi. I don't understand this comment.

I assumed he meant one of the rookies to be upgraded, but not sure who he meant by "Blake". The word is Holmes.

[Jacks Back]

No short arses. The future is not smaller players. Think of the Bont ahead of the Bill, etc.