For StK to become better

[BigMart]

Most improvement will come from within

]The following players need to go to the next level. Akin to what Membrey, Ross, Hickey did this year. Mav, Robbo and Sav need to hold their form. Steven and Geary will continue as normal.
All 30plusses will drop off... Some marginal, some 50%

Luke Dunstan: C - B
After three years at StK Luke needs to elevate his outside game. He is a poor runner, to put it simply... And like Ross this season and Armo in 15 it all starts with running power to spread. needs to shed 3/4kgs and improve his aerobic capacity by 20%

David Armitage: B - A
Armo has had all C and B grade seasons except for elite in 2015. He needs an A Grade end to his career.

Dan McKenzie: D - C
Will just evolve in time, good player.

Jack Billings: C - A
Has a lot of improvement left in him. Fitness must improve dramatically.

Paddy McCartin: D - B
Obviously future A Grader. A lift to B Grade next year would be a good outcome.

Jimmy Webster: C - B
Is almost there anyway, it will happen.

Jake Carlisle: N - A
Could be the difference between a big rise or incremental development. If he recaptures form close to his potential, we are on the move!

Blake Acres: C - A
I am certain he will/can have the biggest leap in terms of consistent output, something about him?! Could still disappoint, but indications are, the high raps on him are justified.

A couple of Lonie, Eli, Sinclair, Minchington, Freeman, Gresham (look out for second year blues) to become C Graders next year. Only Gresham could claim to being close to that this season.

Who else could raise their bar????


Elite: Dominant in the comp (top 20)
A Grade: Quality player in the AFL in that position, top 6 players at the club
B Grade: Good player in the AFL, very consistent core player.
C Grade: generally holds spot, does the job but not always consistent. Or role player. Or talented player a touch inconsistent.
D Grade: Fringe player who generally holds there spot if playing well enough
E Grade: not able to break into the side very much
N Fail: can't get a game

[Zed]

Good topic and good post BM.

I agree with your list of improvers - with the exception of Armo. I don't think he has any more upside.

Also agree that the 2 big improvers will be JB & Acres.

I'll be watching 5 players very intently:
Lonie & Sinclair - can they bounce back from 2nd year blues and if so can they become part of the midfield depth we are craving?
Gresham - will he suffer 2nd year blues ?
Eli (assuming he isn't traded ) - has he got enough improvement to hold down a regular spot ?
Paddy - it's just a matter of time before he bursts onto the scene - which will be his breakout year - 2017 or 2018 ?

[bigcarl]

Rooey will, barring injury, go from A to A+

Doesn't have the pressure of captaincy any more so can just concentrate on his footy, hopefully for a few years yet.

The man is a freak and how he missed All Australian is beyond me.

[MC Gusto]

I like this post and agree with your analysis.

Would be interesting to counter balance it with those we think will likely drop in form

Obviously we hope the kids keep developing as you suggest but for mine the most important is getting Armo back to A grade...

[citywest]

I like this post and agree with your analysis.

Would be interesting to counter balance it with those we think will likely drop in form

Obviously we hope the kids keep developing as you suggest but for mine the most important is getting Armo back to A grade...

For mine, I would trade Armo to either Brisbane or Gold Coast for National Draft pick 15 or better. I would then take 15 to the draft and pick the best midfielder available.

[freely]

White looked comfortable at the level. Should go from E to C, maybe better.

[lewdogs]

An excellent post BigMart. Can't really argue with any of the logic there, I think you've nailed the players well and truly.

The club, particularly Richo but also the players, are talking a lot about "getting better" over pre-season and into next year. There is no doubt in my mind that our improvement must come from within. An interesting question will be can Ross go to another level? He's still pretty young and this was really his first good year. Of the last group you mentioned I think Lonie has the most potential as we've seen what he's capable of in year 1. Sinclair is thereabouts but cotinues to struggle to cement himself in a game so is still a way off.

Brandon White came in late and showed that he can be good, as can Bailey Rice. I think both will play a bit next year.

I think Savage needs to improve from C-B.

Great analysis, well done.

[thejiggingsaint]

All of the above +1

[BigMart]

White's played 1 game. I'll reserve judgement on him for a few seasons yet. Has the tools but He's a long way from the tank, body and development to be a core AFL player IMO

But will get there

Not everyone can play in the seniors
In the backline alone we have these options
Carlisle, Dempster, Gilbert, Roberton, Geary, Montagna, Savage, Webster, McKenzie, Lee, White, Rice (Left out Goddard, Fisher)

Only 6-7 are starters

White is behind a few

[barneyboyz]

White's played 1 game. I'll reserve judgement on him for a few seasons yet. Has the tools but He's a long way from the tank, body and development to be a core AFL player IMO

But will get there

Not everyone can play in the seniors
In the backline alone we have these options
Carlisle, Dempster, Gilbert, Roberton, Geary, Montagna, Savage, Webster, McKenzie, Lee, White, Rice (Left out Goddard, Fisher)

Only 6-7 are starters

White is behind a few

Of that group I liked Roberton's progression this year. Savage should train side by side with Mav to get some aggression, I believe he's still not certain of his own capabilities. Webster, McKenzie, Rice and White will be real good, if developed well. I am unsure of Goddard as a defender, in ten years I reckon he'll be known as a great forward and the rest are a known quantity (well maybe not Carlisle, could do anything?)

[samoht]

Dan McKenzie could eventually become our home-grown A grade player. He ticks plenty of boxes --- has elite line-breaking speed, is tough, takes a strong mark for his size, is a good kick. He creates time and space for himself - and that's what sets the best players apart from the also rans.

Acres, also ... with his zig zagging and tackle-breaking. They both could become special players.

[BigMart]

I agree McKenzie has a high ceiling

Amazing courage... Has a lot of talent... A good human

It won't be in 17... But he'll be a top core player in time

[Beekay]

Dan McKenzie's potential is something I find intriguing.
Neat, tough, smart, fast, athletic... one of my favourite picks.

[BigMart]

Tim is 2 dimensional

A i50 goal kicker

A lead up conduit

If he was only 1 of the above he would be worthless

Good forward lines have them
Gunston
Tom Lynch

[fugazi]

I know he only had one game, and that was against Brisbane, but White looks to have a bright future...could see him develop into a solid B+ like Sean Dempster

Gresh could be anything, right up to elite level, I have no fears for him re: second year blues, seems to want to make his own mark, and seems to love the contest

Billings with confidence and a tank could push right up there too, had a couple of break out games but lost momentum.

Acres and McKenzie need to push each other to be A graders in next couple of years, then we are basically where the Doggies are

Biggest concern is Paddy, great fellow and great courage, but 3 concussions already, and don't tell me he isn't compromised by his medical condition.

Second biggest concern is Hugh Goddard, injury aside, hope he makes it.

[White Winmar]

I think Paddy is the one. If he fulfills his potential, we will make the eight, given normal progress amongst the others. Billings I feel could be elite, if he gets over his injury and confidence concerns. Despite what some say on here, he is a gun. Back to Paddy, I have done a lot of research around the effects of Type 1 diabetes and concussion/head injuries. There's no data on Australian athletes, but there is a raft of studies that have been done in the NFL. I know they are different games, but from what they know to date, it doesn't augur well for Paddy, especially his long term health. He's had five diagnosed concussions going back to his last year in under 18's. Five in three years is a lot, even for someone who is not as susceptible to the effects of concussion, the way a diabetic is. I have everything crossed for the lad, because he will be a star of the competition if his body allows it.

[saintsRrising]

For StK to become better in 2017 the main two things that need to improved are:

- Being consistently better
- And in particular being better interstate - Our lack of effort and commitment interstate not only costs 4 points per game, but the big losses really hurt our % too

At times in 2016 the Saints went missing big-time.

Naturally most of the improvement has to come from the players we already have as at most we will gain 2 or 3 ready-made players by trade, and maybe only one or none. I would be surprised if it was none though.


If we want to do more than just make the 8 though we also need some of the improvers of this year to improve again. ie Hickey to be even better. Lets face it we lack elites. We need someone like a Hickey to push up into the elite bracket.

2017 will be a tough year to make the 8. We will need to be better just to tread water. The Saints had a pretty good run with the injury gods this year by comparison with our competition.

Yes te Roos are likely to keep sliding to free up a spot.

But
- By finishing higher our draw will most likely be tougher
- Hawks yes are sliding, but will still have some talent
- Dees should get better
- Pies had a lot of injuries
- Port will be thereabouts and hence why we need to win the 8 pointer over there
- Dons will be better

[Bluthy]

I don't agree about McCartin going from D to B. I think there will be similar level of Hawkins-type annoyance where we think he isn't progressing quickly enough (or at all). Those big units need a lot of things to come together. I think Paddy and Goddard still need at least another 2 to 3 years before becoming genuine AFL level players. The big guys take time and they've both had injury interupted starts to their season. They have a lot of kg's to lug around the field and need to slowly turn that puppy fat into muscle in a slow and steady way that won't overwhelm their soft tissue. Its another reason I think we should have been slower to climb the ladder - our two bookends will still take years to become finals ready.

Key forward is also incredibly difficult to play. You don't get any easy kicks out of the back there. You need fitness, strength, timing, experience all to come together to be able to operate effectively in that role. As long as Paddy can get out there a fair bit this year I'm happy.

Armo is one I am really worried about. He seems to have been battling injuries nearly his whole career thats held him back - in particular a bad back but also he seemed to have groin problems this season. He had that great 2015 but now I'm seriously worried he's coming down the mountain in large part because his body isn't holding up. Maybe thats where someone like Steele comes in as his replacement.

Acres has great potential as he only seems able to manage two full on qtrs before running out of gas a bit. Coud see him going to a 3qtr player this year.

Ross and Newnes now need to stamp themselves on the comp this year IMO. They need to start to dominate and make things happen not just be link players. When the momentum is against us, they need to change it with big plays. Ross contributing goals would be a valuable tool for him - we need our mids to be able to hit the scoreboard to take the pressure off forwards.

Billings definitely has heaps of improvement in him if he can get his body right. He wasn't kicking through the footy last year you could see. He's a major weapon when he can unleash his penetrating kicking

You would think Carlisle will help straighten us up instantly and start giving us that intercept marking the best teams have.

Lonie and Sincs I will be watching carefully as I think both are damn talented but need to find a way to make themselves work at AFL level.

Personally I'm pretty pessimistic about Freeman. Not writing him off but has it all in front of him. Got everything crossed on those hammies. I think we plan around him and f he makes it then its basically a bonus for me.

The midfield is the area to me that has room for the biggest improvement. IF we land someone over the off-season and then Acres, Gresh, Ross, Dunny all go up a gear and start working together more cohesively we could start getting a big more of the first use we have lacked.

[BigMart]

It didn't take N.R that long. Didn't take Pav that long. Didn't take JB or Tredrea that long. Hogan? Plugger, Carey and many other greats who were supposed to be, and were Guns!!! Didn't take 5 years.

Paddy is a #1 pick... He's nowhere near the size of Hawkins or Patton or Boyd... Who I'd argue dominated Junior footy due to size and once they'd lost their advantage took a long time time eventuate.
McCartin is not even that big for a KPP
193/95 is not big at all for a power forward... Not in comparison

I reckon Paddy is good because of football ability and smarts
That will see him improve quicker

Goddard is bigger, slower and not as good... Therefore will take much longer

[Bardon Saint]

What stuck in my mind reading the OP was D-Mac and I can see others have also brought it up. Whilst I see that Acres will make the next step to A grade hopefully along with Billings and Paddy (Paddy has the tools, just needs to get on the park), D-Mac can really jump ahead. He has great attributes and I see these evolving into a B grader if he has a good pre-season.

There are things I like about Wright but I kinda hope he gets over-taken by Lonie/Sinc if in fwd line and D-Mac if he was to get a hb spot. Lonie has that special Milne-esq ability. Sinc is silky, great disposal. Wright has some line breaking ability but let down with disposal at times.

Hopefully Dunstan can squeeze in a full pre-season. He needs to undergo a Armo 2014/2015 pre-season where he lost a few kgs and developed elite endurance. He doesn't having any stand out attribute other than being a footballer first and athlete second. He reminds me of Tom Mitchell in his early years. Here's hoping Luke can take the next step through endurance.

[older saint]

Newness the quiet achiever of the team, improving each year and can see him having a break out type year like Armo of 2015. Both inside and out, good user and seems to have time with the ball.

Patience required with Paddy and Billings. Bont is making everyone stand up but unlike Billings hasn't had the injury issues. Could eventually be a win win type scenario ala Hodge / Judd where for the first 5 years everyone was why did Hawthorn do that, and now most agree both picks would have been correct. ( hope i am right on this one!)

[fugazi]

I reckon we can just about forget Freeman.
Worth a try but just didn't come off.

[saintsRrising]

I reckon we can just about forget Freeman.
Worth a try but just didn't come off.

What makes you say that?

Stage 1 was to get him playing football again.
Stage 2 was to see if he is good enough at AFL level.

We have only just completed Stage 1.

[fugazi]

I reckon we can just about forget Freeman.
Worth a try but just didn't come off.

What makes you say that?

Stage 1 was to get him playing football again.
Stage 2 was to see if he is good enough at AFL level.

We have only just completed Stage 1.

What I mean is that we as fans probably had him in our starting 22 when we traded him in and thought it was only a matter of time and good management for him to realize his potential.
Now some 3 years in the system and after 3 or 4 setbacks while he was with us, it seems a remote chance of him playing regular AFL, competing against our best mids for a spot etc
So while still possible, it would take a mammoth effort and alot of luck for him to break through. So in that sense it is probably practical to leave him out of any hopeful calculations for the future.
I hope he surprises and plays 150 games for us including final series...but I wouldn't waste too much time pinning hopes on that eventuality.

[The Fireman]

Bill gates as major sponsor.