The 'Rain on the Parade' Thread.

[lintonstreet]

Very sobering post.

We must improve to at least place 9th next year.

Will we?

I hope so.

Can we?

I think so.

Carlisle and Goddard were a huge setback this year as we were clearly undersized. Get them back and we will be much harder to score against.
The forward line will continue to improve.
This just leaves the midfield and the biggest question mark. If we can recruit the mid we are after, then we can improve enough to place 9th or better no matter what the draw.

[To the top]

I have a view that from 2017 the competition will even out where wins can be pencilled in against only a couple of Clubs but some of those higher on the ladder in 2016 will falter and some further down the list will claim some scalps (and where they have gone close in 2016 if not done so).

The danger will be games like playing Geelong at Geelong and some of the interstate sides on their home grounds - but we played Adelaide in Adelaide this year, Hawthorn in Tasmania and West Coast in Perth so should play them at Docklands in 2017.

We had a succession of dismal games at Geelong until the end of last season (the Draw) and this season (a win), so hopefully we again get them at Docklands.

Allowing for Geelong being "home deck bullies" (aka Sri Lanka!!), it will be GWS, Sydney and WCE then the remainder where we are well credentialed on 2016 performances.

So you pencil in Brisbane and Richmond, then lump in (in no particular order), NM (faltering), Melbourne (we get them), Gold Coast (Docklands), Port Adelaide (Docklands), Adelaide (Docklands), Fremantle (there but we get them), Hawthorn (Docklands), WB (we get them), Carlton (we get them), Essendon (we get them) and Collingwood (we get them)

I reckon we can get each of those last named 13 all things being equal - and Geelong if we get them away from their home ground.

And if we can get WCE at Docklands?

You could assume both GWS and Sydney will be there - and those will be the litmus test (as with everyone else).

The players will have to lift another step (as always) - plus we will have Carlisle and Freeman (and Goddard) plus whatever else we do so we should be able to match any improvement from elsewhere in terms of List because we have a head start.

[6621104]

THoughts: who will drop out of the 8 - North, Hawks (will regret keeping all their older players), who are the serious contenders - we will be with Paddy fit and firing, Carlisle living up to his promise, improvement in the youngsters but our competitors will be GFC, Port and the Filth.
GFC might be decimated by desertions, and I suspect we will improve more than either of Port or the other one

So, I predict we will finish in the 8 next year.

[Zed]

I thought we would win 8 games , so exceeded my expectations. The draw and lack of injuries helped to maximise our gains.

IMHO the only real top 4 win was v Geelong, as Bulldogs win was against a team that barely finished with 18 fit men, and it's possible that if that didn't occur it may have been another close loss as per the Hawks & NM1 game.
Concerns around the thrashings we received and the fact that when it really mattered at the end of the season we got well beaten by North and Sydney.

So 9th was probably a best case scenario.

McCartin will straighten us up and I expect further improvement from Acres, Billings and Dmac. Really hopeful Lonie & Sinclair (if they aren't traded out) can really get develop and become the class midfield depth we are lacking. Hoping Gresh doesn't slip back and anything from Freeman will be a bonus. Real concern is defence. Carlisle, whilst handy, isn't going to be the magic bullet - and HG is along way off from establishing himself as a regular senior player. Need to find a quality tall defender to help out JC.

Wild cards who have the potential to surprise are Eli, Webster, White, Rice and Pearce. Although I've never seen him play I just get the feeling NOK could,be a player in another couple of years and Pearce is about another 12 months away from being capable of holding down a senior spot week in week , week out. All in all, I expect us to finish with roughly the same number of wins in 2017 but a much smaller gap between our best and worst efforts and certainly fewer thrashings.

Credit must go to AR as he has got the maximum out of a list that on paper looks weaker than a number of the teams below us on the ladder.

[Rambling Mind]

Interesting points.

We surprised a few sides along the way this year and when it mattered were shown to be a class beneath North Melbourne who are a long way short of the other finalists.

The rebuild is a work in progress with quite a bit to go even before a couple of unpalatable retirements take place in the next few seasons have to be overcome.

[Wayne42]

We need to improve our backline, we need more quality and quantity in the midfield.

I'm not convinced our Forward line is set either. Bruce and Membrey go missing too often and McCartin is nearly always injured.

[Sainternist]

Fair post, we got thrashed by WCE, Crows and Sydney when they needed to win....they gave us a hiding and shoiwed the gulf.

Our best game was against Hawthorn where we were robbed, they were really cracking in.

A top flight midfielder will bridge that gap, and Carlisle, and a fit Paddy McCartin, will be a big bonus

I agree 100% with this.

[To the top]

In the WCE game in Perth we lost players early due to injury, as we did against Adelaide.

Against Sydney Hickey was hobbled and Fisher did not re-appear after half time (then copped a hit when he did).

The point is that we were compromised including because of those who were injured being out better players, putting responsibility on the bottom end of our side to stand up which they could not do.

So the summary is that we are a few players short, particularly in defence when Dempster, Roberton and Fisher go down as they did in those losses.

[oldie60]

The draw thing is a bit of a myth. Yeah, we now move into the middle group of 6 teams, but if you look at who that is, i dont think 2017 will be the horrow draw we think....

Dogs will improve, as will probably Melbourne but they are pea hearts. Port are a question mark, Collingwood have a decent midfield but lack quality talls, and North are headed backwards in a big way.

With an underperforming Freo and Richmond, Gold Coast with 15 top-20 picks this draft, and the Bombers with their list intact, all in the bottom 6, arguably that's a tougher group to play twice??

Unfortunately the way the comp is set up the draw will always be questionable. Bulldogs copped 7 straight at Etihad, North was pretty much gifted a favourable draw and proved in the second half how far behind they are. I think the only good thing gained from a players perspective is the winning feeling with their mates which hopefully builds their confidence as a group. Reward for effort.

[Jacks Back]

The draw thing is a bit of a myth. Yeah, we now move into the middle group of 6 teams, but if you look at who that is, i dont think 2017 will be the horrow draw we think....

Dogs will improve, as will probably Melbourne but they are pea hearts. Port are a question mark, Collingwood have a decent midfield but lack quality talls, and North are headed backwards in a big way.

With an underperforming Freo and Richmond, Gold Coast with 15 top-20 picks this draft, and the Bombers with their list intact, all in the bottom 6, arguably that's a tougher group to play twice??

Unfortunately the way the comp is set up the draw will always be questionable. Bulldogs copped 7 straight at Etihad, North was pretty much gifted a favourable draw and proved in the second half how far behind they are. I think the only good thing gained from a players perspective is the winning feeling with their mates which hopefully builds their confidence as a group. Reward for effort.

Remember, it's a FIXture not a draw.

[Toy Saint]

The draw thing is a bit of a myth. Yeah, we now move into the middle group of 6 teams, but if you look at who that is, i dont think 2017 will be the horrow draw we think....

Dogs will improve, as will probably Melbourne but they are pea hearts. Port are a question mark, Collingwood have a decent midfield but lack quality talls, and North are headed backwards in a big way.

With an underperforming Freo and Richmond, Gold Coast with 15 top-20 picks this draft, and the Bombers with their list intact, all in the bottom 6, arguably that's a tougher group to play twice??

Unfortunately the way the comp is set up the draw will always be questionable. Bulldogs copped 7 straight at Etihad, North was pretty much gifted a favourable draw and proved in the second half how far behind they are. I think the only good thing gained from a players perspective is the winning feeling with their mates which hopefully builds their confidence as a group. Reward for effort.

Remember, it's a FIXture not a draw.

Yes, it called a fixture 'cause it's fixed. Our governing body has a vested interest in certain outcomes, so they 'fix' the schedule to achieve their goals. No way that would happen in a world class major league.

[SainterK]

Depends how clubs around and below the saints improve.

I think the Suns and Bombers will be big movers, and I'll be surprised if Ross doesn't panic and abandon the rebuild early...so Freo move up again for mine.

[linz]

Ok, so we had a good season. Won 12 games, and beat two top 8 teams. Nearly beat two others too. Finished 9th and only just missed out on finals! Way, way beyond my expectations for this season.


But......

Are we living in a false economy?

We played Essendon twice. Carlton twice. Melbourne twice.

We only travelled to Perth once, and didn't go to Sydney at all. Didn't have to go to Geelong either.

We only played Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong and GWS once.


And on top of all that, according to the 'AFL injury list ladder' taken 4 weeks ago, we were 3rd in the comp for teams least impacted by injury.

So maybe we need to manage or expectations going into next season more appropriately, considering the 12-10 win/loss ratio and 9th position on the ladder may not be as good as it seems on face value?

Good post.

I too confess to false economy fears......when you add that so many of our ageing players had big impacts on our season....that can't and won't go on forever (see north)
we'll add carlisle....kids will hopefully get bigger, stronger and more consistent BUT we are IMO still several quality additions short of top 2 Sydney/Hawks standard - yes a quality tall back but I think we need 2 A grade quality mids into this side (is Steel that quality? dont know). Jaeger might be.....if he walks again..

I genuinely think we have some more weeding to do on this list also - there are players, and we all love them, but who under intense heat, cost you and to be a genuine threat against a rampant GWS in years to come we have to turn these players over.

Players to me that fall into that category include Geary (who came 2nd in our B&f) and Gilbert who has tried hard for many years but his disposal efficiency is poor IMO.
Hawthorn are going for their fourth consecutive flag because of exceptional disposal efficiency. We need to find players who can not only get the ball but can dispose of the ball efficiently.

[Teflon]

I tend to agree love Linz

Those 2 have and are loyal servants - Geary could hang on as I'm not as convinced his disposal is as bad as Gilbert's but I've been to way to many games to see Gilbo cough it up to know he isn't in our next premiership side for mine cause under heat he'll hurt u