The 'Rain on the Parade' Thread.

[Johnny Member]

Ok, so we had a good season. Won 12 games, and beat two top 8 teams. Nearly beat two others too. Finished 9th and only just missed out on finals! Way, way beyond my expectations for this season.


But......

Are we living in a false economy?

We played Essendon twice. Carlton twice. Melbourne twice.

We only travelled to Perth once, and didn't go to Sydney at all. Didn't have to go to Geelong either.

We only played Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong and GWS once.


And on top of all that, according to the 'AFL injury list ladder' taken 4 weeks ago, we were 3rd in the comp for teams least impacted by injury.




So maybe we need to manage or expectations going into next season more appropriately, considering the 12-10 win/loss ratio and 9th position on the ladder may not be as good as it seems on face value?

[chook23]

agree............we had a soft draw and injury god kind....

mentioned in another thread we will do well to hold ground given our likely fixture

will have to improve just to hold the ground made this year.

[Sainter_Dad]

Even considering the FIXture at the start of the year most 'experts' had us only winning the same, or a few more than we did the year before. Anyway that you look at it, we are further along the rebuild/challenge, than anyone expected us to be.

A VERY GOOD 2016 - AND LOTS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2017

[jonesy]

I think if we didn't add to our list over the coming preseason your post would be fair enough, but our rebuild isn't finished yet. We are about to get more aggressive at the trade table you'd think. We've built an OK list at present, but it will just take 2 good mids and a key back and we are well and truly relevant again

[Johnny Member]

I think my point is, that although we did well this year - we possibly didn't get a true reflection of where we're really at due to a soft draw and a decent run with injuries. Although having said that, we did miss McCartin for plenty of the season who became important for us, and were undermanned down back for most of the year.

But if we assume there'll be a natural progression up the ladder and that 'anything other than finals will be a failure', I think we might be in a for a rude shock.

If we were to cop more travel, along with playing all the top 8 sides twice - we could actually still improve yet win fewer games and finish lower than we did this year.

[spert]

We had a much improved year, but there's a lot to fix up yet. We didn't really miss McCartin as he hasn't actually done anything yet apart from a couple of strong marks and kick a couple of goals, so let's hope he takes a big step next season. The midfield needs more class, and we need to be more consistent, but that should happen when a few younger players mature. The ladder says it all- we are the best team outside the eight.

[fugazi]

Fair post, we got thrashed by WCE, Crows and Sydney when they needed to win....they gave us a hiding and shoiwed the gulf.

Our best game was against Hawthorn where we were robbed, they were really cracking in.

A top flight midfielder will bridge that gap, and Carlisle, and a fit Paddy McCartin, will be a big bonus

[Impatient Sainter]

We definitely need to improve our leaking defence - when a team like Brisbane can kick more than 100 points against us there are issues. The points against and consequently our percentage werent great which is costly.

We are too slow through the midfield and need significant midfield defensive improvement. When we got easily beaten in clearances and forward turnovers, our defence struggled with quality talls. Carlisle & who ever else we recruit will help, but it would be better to have a dominant quicker midfield.

Our second half of the season draw was advantageous but we still beat some good teams and showed we were competitive against other top 8 sides. If we can will improve again with the above next year, it wont matter how the draw changes!

[St Chris]

The draw thing is a bit of a myth. Yeah, we now move into the middle group of 6 teams, but if you look at who that is, i dont think 2017 will be the horrow draw we think....

Dogs will improve, as will probably Melbourne but they are pea hearts. Port are a question mark, Collingwood have a decent midfield but lack quality talls, and North are headed backwards in a big way.

With an underperforming Freo and Richmond, Gold Coast with 15 top-20 picks this draft, and the Bombers with their list intact, all in the bottom 6, arguably that's a tougher group to play twice??

[Life Long Saint]

Ok, so we had a good season. Won 12 games, and beat two top 8 teams. Nearly beat two others too. Finished 9th and only just missed out on finals! Way, way beyond my expectations for this season.


But......

Are we living in a false economy?

We played Essendon twice. Carlton twice. Melbourne twice.

We only travelled to Perth once, and didn't go to Sydney at all. Didn't have to go to Geelong either.

We only played Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong and GWS once.


And on top of all that, according to the 'AFL injury list ladder' taken 4 weeks ago, we were 3rd in the comp for teams least impacted by injury.




So maybe we need to manage or expectations going into next season more appropriately, considering the 12-10 win/loss ratio and 9th position on the ladder may not be as good as it seems on face value?

Playing Essendon twice was a bonus this season.
Melbourne will be competing for finals when we are and, despite what we all know, most footy "experts" have Melbourne ahead of us in development. We beat Carlton when they were on a hot streak...So the draw was not as lop-sided as it seems.

[Johnny Member]

The draw thing is a bit of a myth. Yeah, we now move into the middle group of 6 teams, but if you look at who that is, i dont think 2017 will be the horrow draw we think....

Dogs will improve, as will probably Melbourne but they are pea hearts. Port are a question mark, Collingwood have a decent midfield but lack quality talls, and North are headed backwards in a big way.

With an underperforming Freo and Richmond, Gold Coast with 15 top-20 picks this draft, and the Bombers with their list intact, all in the bottom 6, arguably that's a tougher group to play twice??

It's not a myth.

Some clubs play good times more than they play s*** teams.

Some clubs play teams away, and don't play them at home.

With the difference between top 4 and top 8 being 1 single game, and the difference between playing finals being only percentage - getting a good break with the Draw is enormous.



What is hard though, is to predict at the start of the season whether your draw is tough or not.

ie. most clubs would have seen themselves playing us twice and licked their lips - however we turned out to be a pretty tough gig. The opposite for Freo.

[jonesy]

I know I am talking fantasy land stuff here,but just imagine if we had a fair go with the umpires next year. Heaven forbid what would actually happen if we were given biased performances resulting in us winning when we don't deserve to.....

Unfortunately we can't expect to get a decent and fair run at it though,so that's something else we will have to contend against next year

[St Chris]

What is hard though, is to predict at the start of the season whether your draw is tough or not.

ie. most clubs would have seen themselves playing us twice and licked their lips - however we turned out to be a pretty tough gig. The opposite for Freo.

That's my point - the myth is that we assume our draw will be a lot tougher, but really it's impossible to tell until you're in the middle of it....

[Johnny Member]

What is hard though, is to predict at the start of the season whether your draw is tough or not.

ie. most clubs would have seen themselves playing us twice and licked their lips - however we turned out to be a pretty tough gig. The opposite for Freo.

That's my point - the myth is that we assume our draw will be a lot tougher, but really it's impossible to tell until you're in the middle of it....

Yeah, that's true.


The only reason I was looking at the draw and making an assumption it will be harder - is that it would be pretty flukey to get such an easy one two years running!

[Griggsy]

I think we would do well to finish about the same next year, the draw wil be harder but we should have improved.
We might even have won 1 or 2 more games this year if Carlisle was in, and we probably would have beaten port if that game was late season instead of early.

But the concept also applies to other teams, eg Eagles played freo, Brisbane, pies twice

[Con Gorozidis]

Good OP.

I have read plenty of posts saying 'if only we beat the Hawks' etc but the flip side to the coin is we had a dream run with injuries and a soft draw. Not sure we are a better side than 9th in reality.

I think Carlisle will help us leak a few goals but there were times this year when our midfield was obliterated.

Still happy with 9th. I had us only winning 8 games so a big improvement. But let's not kid ourselves we will just get up to 16 wins next year. Gets a lot tougher from here.....

[Linton Lodger]

No its not a false economy.

Yes, we beat Essendon twice, but they weren't the basket case everyone expected and they were certainly better than Brisbane who we only played once.

We also only played Richmond, Freo & Gold Coast once.

We beat Carlton twice, something Geelong didn't manage to do.

Then we beat Geelong and decisively beat the Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs, considered top 4 material at the time (before their more recent spate of injuries). Turned up to play us (a team well outside the 8 at the time) and felt the need to completely change their game plan from the start of the game, because they were concerned that their main plan wouldn't beat us. As it turned out their adjustments didn't work.

We should have beaten North twice and they were rare circumstances were you could say that poor umpiring actually did rob us.

Not only should we have beaten Hawthorn, but at 3 qtr time in Tassie we were poised to really touch them up. We choked in that final quarter (young sides can do that) and then were nontheless robbed by a heinous umpiring error.

Don't worry, we're the real deal.

[The Fireman]

we're stuffed.

[Scollop]

Like everything in footy, the positives for this year have to be noted and celebrated, but you move on and set new goals real quick.

I think the team and the club were bitterly disappointed with the way they finished 2015. Our second half last year was abysmal and maybe the main reason that the players were so thorough in their preparation during the summer and preseason. When I visited the Saints website during the 2015 off season and in Jan Feb 2016 all I saw was runing, sweat and guys challenging themselves and each other. It was entertaining and enlightening at the same time. Kudos to the fitness staff and the club for firstly putting together all the programs and secondly for allowing us to watch the team go through their greulling routines.

If we don't follow the exact same process and if we accept finishing outside the top 8, other teams around us will overtake us. The Dees and Pies will be much stronger and will get a lot of natural improvement. Then there's the Power and possibly Gold Coast if Gary can stay on the park for most games. I only see the Kangas as shaky out of current finalists so we've got our work cut out just to match this year. I'm hopeful and my faith is growing in the cockroach

[saintspremiers]

We had a good run with injuries and the MRP last year also. I think we are well managed and that reduces the injury risk

[Con Gorozidis]

So Goddard, McCartin and Dunstan are our only casualties from the season?
All under 22yo players.

[ace]

You don't get a parade unless you win.
Our team simply made up the numbers to make the winner (yet to be decided) look good.

[bigcarl]

We beat a couple of good sides, Bulldogs and Geelong, and deserved to win against Hawthorn.

We're not that far off it. If we start next season well I reckon we can play finals and once you get a sniff of that anything can happen.

[bigcarl]

We beat a couple of good sides, Bulldogs and Geelong, and deserved to win against Hawthorn.

We're not that far off it. If we start next season well I reckon we can play finals and once you get a sniff of that anything can happen.

We've got a good goal-kicking forward line with a fully fit and luckier McCartin hopefully the icing on the cake.

The midfield is going places. Hickey is one of the league's best ruckmen, Seb Ross will get even better. Steven and Armo and with the late season addition of Acres and Gresham it's looking fairly impressive.

The undersized backline is a worry, though. We've plenty of good flankers - Gilbert, Roberton, Webster, Dmac, Dempster, Geary, Savage. White looks a prospect.

Don't know what's happening with Fisher, but only he and Dempster really play tall. Obviously Carlisle will help here and hopefully Goddard can get fit and come on.

[Teflon]

Ok, so we had a good season. Won 12 games, and beat two top 8 teams. Nearly beat two others too. Finished 9th and only just missed out on finals! Way, way beyond my expectations for this season.


But......

Are we living in a false economy?

We played Essendon twice. Carlton twice. Melbourne twice.

We only travelled to Perth once, and didn't go to Sydney at all. Didn't have to go to Geelong either.

We only played Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong and GWS once.


And on top of all that, according to the 'AFL injury list ladder' taken 4 weeks ago, we were 3rd in the comp for teams least impacted by injury.

So maybe we need to manage or expectations going into next season more appropriately, considering the 12-10 win/loss ratio and 9th position on the ladder may not be as good as it seems on face value?

Good post.

I too confess to false economy fears......when you add that so many of our ageing players had big impacts on our season....that can't and won't go on forever (see north)
we'll add carlisle....kids will hopefully get bigger, stronger and more consistent BUT we are IMO still several quality additions short of top 2 Sydney/Hawks standard - yes a quality tall back but I think we need 2 A grade quality mids into this side (is Steel that quality? dont know). Jaeger might be.....if he walks again..

I genuinely think we have some more weeding to do on this list also - there are players, and we all love them, but who under intense heat, cost you and to be a genuine threat against a rampant GWS in years to come we have to turn these players over.