The Draw

[freely]

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/c ... punu0.html

Although I'm not sure I can bear it!

[st.byron]

Nup. Can't watch it.

[SemperFidelis]

Oh God. Classic definition of tragedy. No doubt perfect for opera.

[loris]

I just hope 'The Draw' is not as tragic as Gyorgy Ligeti's 'Le Grand Macarbe', because I can recall at the end of that fateful drawn game, I truly felt that 'Armageddon' had occurred.

[kosifantutti]

I'd go, but I'd avoid the sequel.

[WellardSaint]

I used the Ladder Predictor on the AFL website,
and being "realistic" in my universe-
losing against Roos, Bulldogs and Shitney;
and Norf winning games they should win, and only losing to Eagles, Sydney,Hawks, and Giants-
we might end up 9th, 2 games adrift of Norf.

If Bulldogs beat Norf, they will still be one game ahead of us.
If we beat Bulldogs, then Norf should beat them too as the respective games are only 2 weeks apart.

So Warney's prediction of "finals" seems to be off the mark slightly.

[Sawf]

I read this the other day and felt decidedly ill by the end of the article.

No way I could sit through it!

[Jacks Back]

I used the Ladder Predictor on the AFL website,
and being "realistic" in my universe-
losing against Roos, Bulldogs and Shitney;
and Norf winning games they should win, and only losing to Eagles, Sydney,Hawks, and Giants-
we might end up 9th, 2 games adrift of Norf.

If Bulldogs beat Norf, they will still be one game ahead of us.
If we beat Bulldogs, then Norf should beat them too as the respective games are only 2 weeks apart.

So Warney's prediction of "finals" seems to be off the mark slightly.

Don't forget that we are x amount of games behind but also percentage which is an extra game.

[samuraisaint]

Looking at the fixture there are only two games I would class as 'gimmees'. The Essendon game in particular, with Leuenberger and Jamar out and possibly Zaharakis too, makes that game a potential percentage booster, in fact I'll be disappointed if it isn't. The Brisbane Lions game here in round 23 is another, and would be disappointed if we can't get some percentage boost out of that one as well judging by the way they are going. Win those two, and even if we won both of them by 12 goals, we would still only win 8 games for the year and have a percentage under 100. Which would still be a very reasonable return.

The problem is, after those I can't find a game we will definitely win. Today is the very definition of a 50/50 game. They have improved and have us this week and Brisbane next week at home. Eade will target today as the game to get them going again. Teams just don't lose more than ten games in a row anymore.
Essendon - win.
Melbourne at Etihad - I think we can win it, but it depends on who turns up on the day. 50/50
Bulldogs - I would have said definitely and emphatically 'No' before the events of this week and us beating the Catters. Now I think it's 60/40 their way, I really do.
North - No. Harvey's record breaking game and they are a bit like West Coast in that they rarely lose the ones they shouldn't.
Carlton at MCG - Another 50/50 game. We have improved our form at the MCG of late, and this game is over a month away. We'll probably know more after today - they play Collingwood at the MCG and have some tough games against Crows, Eagles, Swans coming up after that. Another 50/50.
Sydney - Nope.
Richmond at the MCG. We've only beaten them 7 times in 50 years at the G. But then again we have also drawn with them there on 3 occasions in that time, so that's 10 times in 50 years we've got a result against them. It's also pertinent to note that most of our losses against them were between 1967 and 1982 when they were winning Flags and were like Hawthorn and Geelong have been in the 2000s. Plus we have only played them there 18 times since 1980, in which time we've beaten them 5 of those times with two draws, with most of our losses being way back in the 1980s. So they've only beaten us at the MCG 11 times in 35 years themselves. A week ago I would have said 'No', now I say 'Probably not' - 60/40 their way.
Last game at Etihad versus the Lions - should win and will win.

No chance of finals, little chance of a mid-table finish, but I am happy to concede that I was wrong about us only winning 7 games for the season and finishing fourth or fifth last. I still think we'll finish bottom 6 - so probably 13th, but this may depend on our percentage. If we beat Essendon and Brisbane by 12 goals or more that could be the difference.

[saynta]

Nup, not for me.