In your initial list, you've gone back a fair way, Marto. As someone mentioned, the era is relevant.BigMart wrote:Are you sure?
Nick h and Nick H won the RS award in their second year
Jesse Hogan at 20 last year
Modra started older but kicked a ton in his second year
Grant and Lloyd both booted 50 as teenagers
Cloke won s B&F at 20
Could go on... It's all individualistic
Some took years to make it... Like Hawkins
Paddy will be a player... But as I stayed, has a long way to go
His fitness and body shape are not that of an elite athlete, he needs to work hard.
Nick was the latest starter in your earlier list - in '01. Pavlich a year earlier. The only other on your list to start less than 20 years ago is Treadrea, and he started 19 years ago.
Of the rest - Lloyd '95, Holland '94, Rocca '93, Modra '92, Grant '90 and Dunstall '85 (31 years ago).
As an indication of how much the scoring patterns have evolved (e.g. greater spread away from dominant key forwards), here's the list of leading goalkickers, by year, up to 2014:
http://footystats.freeservers.com/Footy ... dGoal.html
Compare, say, the last 10 years, with the 10 years of the '90's when most of your list were underway. Kennedy kicked what, 80+ last year? In a year his side played off, and he turned 27 last year. Given Kennedy doesn't feature anywhere else in that list prior to last year, and the list shows the top 3 minimum by year, let's suggest Kennedy had a break out year last year - at 27.
80 odd goals seems to be around the modern game ceiling for the leading goalscorer, and even that looks statistically generous (given the last bloke to kick over 73 was Fevola in '09).
Of the players I wondered about, Franklin started the furthest back, in '05, so 11 years ago.
Franklin kicked 21 from 20 games in his 1st year, 31 from 14 games in his 2nd and 73 from 22 games in his 3rd. He's the last bloke to kick 100, in '08, in his 4th year (and 8 years ago, assuming no-one does it this year, which they won't).
While Franklin started in spots other than as a key forward, I'd suggest his first 2 seasons, 34 game, average of ~ 11 disposals a game (7K/4H) show the Dorks were willing to be patient.
And, again, how much has the game changed in those 11 years? I reckon one way to tell is to look at Franklin since he kicked the ton in '08. By that list, his season high since '08 is 71 goals (missing last year's numbers, as noted earlier).
You pleaded with folks not to compare Paddy to Plugger. I don't reckon anyone has tried to do so, apart from the odd narrow comparison (e.g. shape, elements of playing style).
To my mind, one of the reasons any such comparison is pointless is because of the different eras. I'd never compare the Doc to Plugger, mainly for the same reason - there's no point.
About the only relevant comparisons I can see are with Paddy's peers, or thereabouts, from this era, and only at comparable stages of their development. The rest we'll just have to wait and see.
And, yes, he does have to work hard, but so does everybody else. And, I'm entirely confident he is, and will - it just takes longer these days.
