St Kilda 2016 season preview - Me? I Like Football

[The Hitman]

Hi Saints fans, last year I posted the St Kilda's season preview and it generated some good discussion. You can check that out here.

In that spirit, I thought I'd come back and post the 2016 season preview for the Saints.

Genuinely interested in finding out your realistic aims, what has you excited and your feedback on the preview.

I've posted the whole thing here, sans images, to comply with anti-spamming protocols; hopefully that's okay for the mods.

I am not the author, but I've let him know I've posted the preview and he'll be here to engage! And if you want to see the preview on the Me? I Like Football site, or the previews of the 17 other clubs, you can by clicking here.

2016 season preview: St Kilda
By Ryan Mason

Last season

Expectations were low for the Saints in 2015. With a list in flux, with most of its proven players on the wrong side of 28, and the highly-regarded Alan Richardson adjusting to life at the helm after a failed rebuild under Scott Watters, they were widely tipped to finish last. Some media pundits even went so far as to suggest they might not win a game.

But those predictions of overwhelming mediocrity didn’t quite eventuate; the boys from Moorabbin managed to improve on their 2014 win-loss record, surprising a few more highly-fancied teams in the process.

Their six-and-a-half wins featured a victory over the top-eight Bulldogs and a 110-point shellacking of a dispirited Essendon. St Kilda were competitive for most of the year, but their young list tired as the season wore on, so there were also blowouts in the other direction: their worst losses of the year came in the defeats by 97 and 92 points against by Sydney and West Coast respectively – both inflicted in the final two weeks of the season.

There was plenty to lend hope to Saints fans. David Armitage and Jack Steven took charge of an inexperienced midfield and led by example, both putting in outstanding years that were unlucky not to be rewarded with All-Australian recognition. Josh Bruce emerged from nowhere to become the team’s focal point, booting a stunning 50 goals. With Paddy McCartin, the speedy Jack Lonie at the fall of the ball, and potentially the newly acquired Jake Carlisle flying across the front of packs, the forward line post-Nick Riewoldt era looks assured.

Comings and goings

Long-time servants Farren Ray and Adam Schneider left the club; Daniel Markworth, Ahmed Saad, Tom Simpkin. Arryn Siposs and Spencer White were not offered new contracts, and Josh Saunders departed but was retained via the rookie list.

Essendon’s Jake Carlisle started a bidding war in the trade period. St Kilda started in poll position for his services, and despite a few false starts, managed to sign the coveted talent… only days before a video emerged of him enjoying some of Colombia’s finest. Carlisle was instantly suspended by his new club, but he will sit out all of 2016 anyway due to the Essendon drug suspensions. Caveat emptor, perhaps, but at his best Carlisle is one of the AFL’s few true swingmen.

The Saints also enticed disgruntled Pie Nathan Freeman to the club. A top-ten pick only a few years ago, he could become another important cog in the developing St Kilda midfield should his hamstrings (and reported bad attitude) improve.

Strengths

The Saints have built a midfield with pace, strength and class. Armitage and Steven are ready to take the next step; Maverick Weller has been a terrific find after the wake-up call of being dumped by Gold Coast; and Jack Newnes, Luke Dunstan and Seb Ross offer plenty of variety and versatility. Leigh Montagna is nearer to the end of his career than the start, but he’s still able win the ball and play a role when needed.

There’s the unknown in Nathan Freeman, but also the freshly-drafted Jade Gresham, an inside midfielder who won Vic Metro's MVP award, the TAC Cup Coaches Award and under-18 All Australian honours.

Crucially, the Saints have a bit of promise in the ruck department, with Billy Longer and Tom Hickey showing glimpses they can be AFL standard seniors for the next decade.

History has shown that successful teams grow and develop together; it’s imperative that St Kilda nurtures their midfield core as they’ll ideally become the nucleus of a real contender.

Weaknesses

St Kilda’s opponents averaged nearly 100 points against them last year, the fourth-worst in the league.

Though boasting a couple of veterans in Sean Dempster and Sam Fisher, the Saints’ back six is largely inexperienced and untested.

With Carlisle out of the picture until 2017, their key defender stocks are paper thin: Fisher is already forced to play tall despite only clocking in at 191cm, and a lot will be asked of 19-year-old Hugh Goddard, with Dylan Roberton, Luke Delaney and the maligned Tom Lee in line for backup.

Alan Richardson will need strong defensive improvement from his midfield to ensure opposition playmakers can’t isolate the Saints’ undersized backmen.

They will also be desperate to get a better spread of goal-kickers forward of centre; Josh Bruce and Nick Riewoldt accounted for nearly a third of the team’s goals in 2015. Luke Dunstan, Jack Billings and Jack Sinclair will be expected to contribute more on the scoreboard this year.

What to expect in 2016

The Saints have a particularly favourable draw in 2016, faced only with two return bouts against 2015 finalists – and they get the pleasure of meeting Essendon, Melbourne and Carlton twice. The young squad will likely run out of steam at some point again, but they should match the number of wins they secured last year.

The changing of the guard will continue unabated. Nick Riewoldt may be used up the ground more often to allow Paddy McCartin and Josh Bruce more time to operate on their own inside the forward 50, and veterans will step back to allow others to take more responsibility both on and off the field.

Best 22

B: Sean Dempster - Sam Fisher – Jimmy Webster
HB: Shane Savage – Hugh Goddard – Dylan Roberton
C: Jack Steven – Maverick Weller – Jack Newnes
HF: Jack Sinclair - Nick Riewoldt – Tim Membrey
F: Jack Billings - Josh Bruce - Jack Lonie
FOLL: Billy Longer – David Armitage – Leigh Montagna
INT: Tom Hickey - Sam Gilbert - Luke Dunstan – Jarryn Geary

The Verdict

2016 will be another step in the rebuild as the club prepares for the next generation to take the reins. The challenge will be to find consistency and begin to work together as an effective unit more often than not. This is a team that is focused on 2018-19; putting minutes into the likes of Hugh Goddard, Paddy McCartin, Jack Billings, Jack Lonie and Nathan Freeman is the priority.

We have St Kilda finishing in 15th position.

[degruch]

I think we're building, it would be more important to get minutes into midfielders like Acres, D-Mac, Templeton, and better output from Ross and Billings (with injury free runs behind them) than to focus too much on Freeman per se. Don't forget Holmes in ruck too! Agree that backline is a weakness, of course...depth is thin, we lack a true tall cornerstone and the mix is very old or very young. But I don't think I'm preaching to non-converts with those observations.

[Jacks Back]

Well, at the moment we're not the "boys from Moorabbin" but the boys from Seaford.

[BackFromUSA]

I hate the notion of best 22.

There are teams with genuine power forwards that you would play Delaney in the team. Who you omit out of Fisher, Goddard and Roberton depends on injuries (availability) and team balance and a little bit on picking teams for the future. However if Fisher is injured for example and there is no power forward - then Tom Lee gets a game.

Also Membrey isn't starting 22 in my view. Would rather he learnt to play as a big bodied midfielder or defender in the VFL.

Our tall forward structure this year should by Riewoldt as the lead up 3rd tall (essentially a transition midfielder like Tom Lynch plays for Adelaide) with Bruce at CHF and Paddy at FF. Hickey rotates on the bench with the ruckman AND give Paddy, Roo and Bruce rests by playing Full Forward and leaving two genuine tall forwards on the ground at all times playing CHF and 3rd tall.

As for the ruck - I would prefer both Holmes (with superior leap and ruck pure contest) and Pierce (with superior possession usage) over Longer until he can prove his fitness and through the VFL can start to contribute possession wise!

[saintspremiers]

Excellent article. With one exception. Instead of saying "some
media pundits thought we wouldn't win game" please insert "David King" so it's recorded in the history books!

Interesting to see how Johnny Holmes and Pammy Lee go this year. Two big boys that really could make
a difference if they keep improving.

[Bluthy]

• Everyone sees it differently thats for sure.
• I've seen a few people talk about Carlisle as a forward. I thought Richo had said he was brought into to be a backman but maybe I'm wrong. Jake has let his feelings be known about not wanting to play forward - unless that is a bit of myth or he has had a change of heart. A swingman is always handy.
• Freeman I'm not even factoring in this year. IF he gets up to play any AFL this year that is a bonus. "Bad attitude"? I've heard the figjam rumours but a bit of cockiness can be good if harnessed correctly
• You'd love our rucks to step it up. The Hickey-Longer fwd/ruck showdown contintues. Things might clarify themselves a bit this year.
• "The Saints have built a midfield with pace, strength and class" er...ok. Think thats a bit of a work in progress. We're looking a bit stronger with Billings, Acres, Ross, maybe Gresham beavering away in there as well but they need a few years to be real powerhouses on ball. Agree we definitely need our midfield to be competitive to stop our defence being pumped.
• We probably do need some more goal kickers - Acres was pushing really high in the praccy games and could be a force there.
• 15th is a possibility. On paper I see us as better than Blues, Bombers and Lions. Melbourne I'm worried will take a big step this year - they have a hotbed of talent probably more than us

.

[saintspremiers]

I'm guessing we will finish 16th. No improvement win or ladder wise on last year

[saintjake]

I hate the notion of best 22.

There are teams with genuine power forwards that you would play Delaney in the team. Who you omit out of Fisher, Goddard and Roberton depends on injuries (availability) and team balance and a little bit on picking teams for the future. However if Fisher is injured for example and there is no power forward - then Tom Lee gets a game.

Also Membrey isn't starting 22 in my view. Would rather he learnt to play as a big bodied midfielder or defender in the VFL.

Our tall forward structure this year should by Riewoldt as the lead up 3rd tall (essentially a transition midfielder like Tom Lynch plays for Adelaide) with Bruce at CHF and Paddy at FF. Hickey rotates on the bench with the ruckman AND give Paddy, Roo and Bruce rests by playing Full Forward and leaving two genuine tall forwards on the ground at all times playing CHF and 3rd tall.

As for the ruck - I would prefer both Holmes (with superior leap and ruck pure contest) and Pierce (with superior possession usage) over Longer until he can prove his fitness and through the VFL can start to contribute possession wise!

Wow, I'm glad you are no where near the selection table

[st.byron]

I hate the notion of best 22.

There are teams with genuine power forwards that you would play Delaney in the team. Who you omit out of Fisher, Goddard and Roberton depends on injuries (availability) and team balance and a little bit on picking teams for the future. However if Fisher is injured for example and there is no power forward - then Tom Lee gets a game.

Also Membrey isn't starting 22 in my view. Would rather he learnt to play as a big bodied midfielder or defender in the VFL.

Our tall forward structure this year should by Riewoldt as the lead up 3rd tall (essentially a transition midfielder like Tom Lynch plays for Adelaide) with Bruce at CHF and Paddy at FF. Hickey rotates on the bench with the ruckman AND give Paddy, Roo and Bruce rests by playing Full Forward and leaving two genuine tall forwards on the ground at all times playing CHF and 3rd tall.

As for the ruck - I would prefer both Holmes (with superior leap and ruck pure contest) and Pierce (with superior possession usage) over Longer until he can prove his fitness and through the VFL can start to contribute possession wise!

Wow, I'm glad you are no where near the selection table

So what would you do? What do you think is wrong with BFUSA's ideas?

[Jacks Back]

I hate the notion of best 22.

There are teams with genuine power forwards that you would play Delaney in the team. Who you omit out of Fisher, Goddard and Roberton depends on injuries (availability) and team balance and a little bit on picking teams for the future. However if Fisher is injured for example and there is no power forward - then Tom Lee gets a game.

Also Membrey isn't starting 22 in my view. Would rather he learnt to play as a big bodied midfielder or defender in the VFL.

Our tall forward structure this year should by Riewoldt as the lead up 3rd tall (essentially a transition midfielder like Tom Lynch plays for Adelaide) with Bruce at CHF and Paddy at FF. Hickey rotates on the bench with the ruckman AND give Paddy, Roo and Bruce rests by playing Full Forward and leaving two genuine tall forwards on the ground at all times playing CHF and 3rd tall.

As for the ruck - I would prefer both Holmes (with superior leap and ruck pure contest) and Pierce (with superior possession usage) over Longer until he can prove his fitness and through the VFL can start to contribute possession wise!

Wow, I'm glad you are no where near the selection table

So what would you do? What do you think is wrong with BFUSA's ideas?

I suppose what he's saying is horses for courses however, eventually, we should be looking at us putting our best side in and the opposition worrying about the horses for courses business.

[st.byron]

I hate the notion of best 22.

There are teams with genuine power forwards that you would play Delaney in the team. Who you omit out of Fisher, Goddard and Roberton depends on injuries (availability) and team balance and a little bit on picking teams for the future. However if Fisher is injured for example and there is no power forward - then Tom Lee gets a game.

Also Membrey isn't starting 22 in my view. Would rather he learnt to play as a big bodied midfielder or defender in the VFL.

Our tall forward structure this year should by Riewoldt as the lead up 3rd tall (essentially a transition midfielder like Tom Lynch plays for Adelaide) with Bruce at CHF and Paddy at FF. Hickey rotates on the bench with the ruckman AND give Paddy, Roo and Bruce rests by playing Full Forward and leaving two genuine tall forwards on the ground at all times playing CHF and 3rd tall.

As for the ruck - I would prefer both Holmes (with superior leap and ruck pure contest) and Pierce (with superior possession usage) over Longer until he can prove his fitness and through the VFL can start to contribute possession wise!

Wow, I'm glad you are no where near the selection table

So what would you do? What do you think is wrong with BFUSA's ideas?

I suppose what he's saying is horses for courses however, eventually, we should be looking at us putting our best side in and the opposition worrying about the horses for courses business.

I agree that we should be putting our best side on the park. The side that we think can best deliver on our game plan.
I posted that because if someone's going to pot someone else for having rubbish ideas, I'd prefer them to say why they think it's so.

[BackFromUSA]

I hate the notion of best 22.

There are teams with genuine power forwards that you would play Delaney in the team. Who you omit out of Fisher, Goddard and Roberton depends on injuries (availability) and team balance and a little bit on picking teams for the future. However if Fisher is injured for example and there is no power forward - then Tom Lee gets a game.

Also Membrey isn't starting 22 in my view. Would rather he learnt to play as a big bodied midfielder or defender in the VFL.

Our tall forward structure this year should by Riewoldt as the lead up 3rd tall (essentially a transition midfielder like Tom Lynch plays for Adelaide) with Bruce at CHF and Paddy at FF. Hickey rotates on the bench with the ruckman AND give Paddy, Roo and Bruce rests by playing Full Forward and leaving two genuine tall forwards on the ground at all times playing CHF and 3rd tall.

As for the ruck - I would prefer both Holmes (with superior leap and ruck pure contest) and Pierce (with superior possession usage) over Longer until he can prove his fitness and through the VFL can start to contribute possession wise!

Wow, I'm glad you are no where near the selection table

Fair enough. Just my opinion. Wondering if you can outline which bits you disagree with and why. Who knows maybe after seeing your alternate view, I may change my current way of thinking.

[BigMart]

Tell you now, Delaney is a longways off a game.

For some reason

ATM the order is
Fisher, Dempster, Roberton, Lee, Goddard, Delaney

[Bluthy]

Tell you now, Delaney is a longways off a game.

For some reason

ATM the order is
Fisher, Dempster, Roberton, Lee, Goddard, Delaney

Delaney is what he is. He was brought in as a freebie trade so we had a huge body on our backline when fish, gilbo and roberton were all struggling with injuries and we had virtually no young tall backs. Right from the get go the reasons North let him go were obvious - he rarely marks just punches (very effectively mind you), not good with the ball in his hand and has a chronic hip injury that he is struggling to shake. I still think he's a handy backup and will play a bit of AFL this year while they manage Goddard and Carlisle comes in next year.

[saintbob]

We'll be going backwards, if Lee and Delaney play a lot of footy this year!!

Both were only ever recruited as back ups, and neither of them have done anything to suggest that still isn't the case.

[Bluthy]

We'll be going backwards, if Lee and Delaney play a lot of footy this year!!

Both were only ever recruited as back ups, and neither of them have done anything to suggest that still isn't the case.

I've still got some hope for Lee. I haven't seen him play down back much to be honest but I want to see what he can do this year. Whether he's got what it takes to be an AFL player - forward or back - will probably be answered this year.

[saynta]

Anyone who doesn't have Ross in the Saints best 22 doesn't know s*** from sugar. IMHO.

[evertonfc]

Anyone who doesn't have Ross in the Saints best 22 doesn't know s*** from sugar. IMHO.

Not sure about that. Who would you drop to get him in? Geary? I'm a Ross fan - because he has some nice qualities - but I'm frustrated that he doesn't find the ball regularly enough, doesn't hurt teams with pace or skill and just floats from contest to contest. Big pre-season is one thing, let's see what he delivers.

I don't think our midfield has that much pace, skill or class. We've actually got a nice big batch of depth but need some serious game-changing power to be competitive in our major years.

Free agency will be our best friend in coming years.

[BigMart]

Lee is not big enough... Like Hickey he just isn't thick enough and whilst offensively he is nice by foot, and he is very good at VFL level against younger bodies...

Key fwds would monster him.

[saynta]

Anyone who doesn't have Ross in the Saints best 22 doesn't know s*** from sugar. IMHO.

Not sure about that. Who would you drop to get him in? Geary? I'm a Ross fan - because he has some nice qualities - but I'm frustrated that he doesn't find the ball regularly enough, doesn't hurt teams with pace or skill and just floats from contest to contest. Big pre-season is one thing, let's see what he delivers.

I don't think our midfield has that much pace, skill or class. We've actually got a nice big batch of depth but need some serious game-changing power to be competitive in our major years.

Free agency will be our best friend in coming years.

Easiest question in the world to answer, well from the 22 named in the op anyway.

Tim Membrey from that starting lineup. That bloke is simply not AFL standard. He s just an average VFL player imho.

Anyway the coach loves Ross. He s a certain starter, baring injuries.

Ross was in our best three players over the two games played