Can We Win More Than Six Games in 2016?

[damienc]

Some of you are not going to like what I am about to say.

But I figure this is a forum for throwing stuff around so let me go ahead and upset the furniture. Here’s a question with a little extra something.

Will the Saints win more than six games in 2016? Well, will they? I am only asking because I don’t know the answer. Maybe I’m afraid of the answer.

Six games were all we won last year. It has to be the benchmark this season.

And while I’m in the mood to ask questions, here’s another: Did the first NAB hit out give you reason to think we can? Or will?

Take it as read this was a very inexperienced side and far from our best. Big names were missing etc etc.

I get all of that.

It’s just that there is a pattern emerging.

No. Correction.

We’ve had it for some time.

Our first half can be good. We do all the right things. Have all the right numbers. And then….. we fall into a massive hole. Of our own making of course.

At the risk of sounding like the perennial pessimist, so early in the season, (I don’t want to be) that is a very familiar tune to me. Our good is very good. Our bad is just appalling, atrocious and fatal.

We just don’t seem to have the capacity to put together four quarters, of great footy, on a regular basis. We seem to manage three ok but there seems to always be a quarter of footy where everything fails.

And it's always that one quarter that sinks us.

Now, at the beginning of season 2016, it looks like nothing’s changed. It is kind of worrying from a supporter’s point of view. Even, if you happen to be one of the most ardent and loyal versions, which I am.

Danny Sexton talked about in his press conference. Expressed his disappointment. I share his disappointment. But if nothing changes, nothing changes. And, in our first hit out in 2016, it looked to me like nothing has.

Maybe I am being impatient.

Maybe I need to give it time when we have all of our stars back.

What I am sounding here is not a general alarm. It is simply a cause for concern.

I personally didn’t take much from Wangaratta.

I suppose what I am saying is that the modern game needs to be played with everything you’ve got for four quarters not three and a bit.

And until our players grasp that concept, our six game benchmark is looking more and more like a bridge too far.

[ripplug66]

6 to 8 wins for me. Nothing I saw yesterday makes that target unrealistic. The side we had in meant we were always going to run out of legs. We also rested 3 players from half time. 2 of which are very experienced players. The only people who would be upset with yesterday are those who had unrealistic expectations.

[Bluthy]

Are you basing all this on yesterdays game? For the first half when we had some half-decent fire power out there we were good. You take out Steven, Billings, Dunstan, Newnes, McCartin, Gilbo then a strong North team could get right on the front foot against what was then almost our reserve team. Totally expected. We had no overlapping run in the 30 degree heat from our very green players and they weren't able to lock the ball in.

I thought we over-achieved last year. To go from wooden spoon to being really competitive in nearly every game except the last couple was an amazing improvement. We caught teams off-guard with our full ground press and players like Bruce and Billings were under teams radar. But they won't be this year. And its all relative. I think Melbourne will have improved and I worry about our ability to beat them as they should be further advanced than us really. Brissy will have improved too and will be difficult up there. I'm happy with the same number of wins and ladder position as last year. It will reflect where we are at without that bulk quality in the 75-200 game mark that the good teams have. And hey we get another high draft pick which we really need.

Our oldies will still be important this year. We've still got a long way to go with the likes Gresham, White, Rice, McKenzie, Lee, McCartin to really begin to flesh out the new generation. I'm not ruling out an improvement this year. There are some sparks that could catch fire. Billings could be anything. Dunstan and Acres could have great years. McCartin could become a good target for our forward line. Could Gresham do a Lonie/Sinclair and have a breakout debut season? And this is Richo's third year in charge so the team should have a really good understanding of what he wants now - he team could be better then the sum of its parts this year.

But I'm going in this year not really expecting better than last year. I'm just looking forward to seeing the youngsters develop again and keep being competitive. Its another year of building that solid new base before we are ready to take off again.

[longtimesaint]

6 to 8 wins for me. Nothing I saw yesterday makes that target unrealistic. The side we had in meant we were always going to run out of legs. We also rested 3 players from half time. 2 of which are very experienced players. The only people who would be upset with yesterday are those who had unrealistic expectations.

North also fielded a nearly full strength side and an inexperienced team like we had will always drop off in the second half.
We also need to be realistic as they have played the last two years preliminary finals and even full strength we would probably lose in 2016.
We are in a different stage of development and many of the saints players yesterday have only had one or two years pre-season fitness base..
I think we will be on track to win 6to 8 this year but it probably won't include top 8 teams. Hopefully that will come the next year!

[WellardSaint]

I imagine 6 games would be it.
Demons will overtake us, as well as Brisvegas-; Carlton will beat us badly.
I know our younger guys now have more experience, but so have other teams.
We will be better than last year, but so will every other team.
Hawks, Norf, Swans and the Pies will all give us a huge baking, which will crush the younger spirits.
We won't close the gap to any other team, and the only certainty of a win is against Essendope.
Carlisle was supposed to help an ageing backline; if we put faith and pressure in Tommy Lee, there is a chance he could break down AGAIN.
I think we may beat the Dopers, maybe Brissie, maybe the Demons, but the rest...who knows?

[WinnersOnly]

Bottom four again me thinks, too many over rate our list which still has major gaps and weaknesses!

[kosifantutti]

Why again? We weren't bottom four last year.

[samuraisaint]

We may not see Freeman this year, or much of Rice. Carlisle will play in 2017. We'll tread water in 2016. If we win 6 games or 7 or 5 it probably doesn't matter much in the long run, Richardson just needs to get as many games into the new generation of youngsters without burning them out, and keep turning over the list to see if guys like Lee, Delaney, Curren, Minchington, Webster, Ross, Newnes and Acres, as well as Shenton, are going to be there for the long haul.
Because we still have our ageing stars we will win probably as many games as last year. I think we will have a better idea of how we will go after we've played the Brisbane and Melbourne practice matches. North were always going to be too good for us, even if we had have had a more experienced side in.
The irony is we'll probably play better in 2017 and only win as many games as 2016 again because of retirements of Joey, Roo, Dempster, Fisher, etc.

[samuraisaint]

Bottom four again me thinks, too many over rate our list which still has major gaps and weaknesses!

We'll probably finish fifth or sixth from bottom. I don't think we'll be worse than last year, we'll be about the same. North are a legitimate top 4 side, taken in that context, we probably fared as well as I expected.

[samuraisaint]

I imagine 6 games would be it.
Demons will overtake us, as well as Brisvegas-; Carlton will beat us badly.
I know our younger guys now have more experience, but so have other teams.
We will be better than last year, but so will every other team.
Hawks, Norf, Swans and the Pies will all give us a huge baking, which will crush the younger spirits.
We won't close the gap to any other team, and the only certainty of a win is against Essendope.
Carlisle was supposed to help an ageing backline; if we put faith and pressure in Tommy Lee, there is a chance he could break down AGAIN.
I think we may beat the Dopers, maybe Brissie, maybe the Demons, but the rest...who knows?

Demons have been better than us for the last two seasons - we still beat them, and we will again.
Brisbane have zero chance of beating us at Etihad in the final round of the year.
Carlton could beat us at the G, yes, but we will beat them at Etihad, and I think we will beat them by a lot, too.
Hawks and North are top 4 sides. They will both beat us - we should keep those losses to under 50 points though.
Swans have been gifted a lot of top end talent, it is a no-brainer that they should beat us and win well. The Collingwood one is interesting - I'd expect them to beat us by 10 goals given we basically don't have a backline, but I think we can make it a narrow loss.
Two 100 point wins against Essendon.
Always keep in mind though, that every year a side falls spectacularly from grace and we may beat that side too, whoever that is.

[To the top]

Good question.

It all depends on injuries in my view.

The reason for that comment is:-

Fisher Goddard Dempster
Roberton Carlisle Webster
Riewoldt Armitage Montagna
Billings McCartin Acres
Freeman Bruce Lonie
Hickey Gilbert Steven
Longer Dunstan Newnes Gresham

versus

McKenzie Delaney Wright
Murdoch Lee Savage
Saunders Geary Weller
Shenton Coughlan Templeton
Membrey Payne Minchington
Pierce Ross Curran
Sinclair Rice White O'Kearney Holmes Baker-Thomas


So who from the first named side do you omit for who from the second named side?

And that is why injuries will dictate - along with form and anticipated development.

We still have some way to go on AFL depth.

And we have already lost Carlisle for the season.

[Griggsy]

Be about the same as last year give or take 1.

Was happy with last season but being a realist it could have easily been four wins. You can't always count on having one of the best second half comebacks in history every year, and you can't count on kicking a goal in a few seconds from the restart after conceding the lead. Those were great and memorable moments but they are remarkable for a reason, they just don't happen that often.

[BadRossco]

Probably finish with top five draft pick, then trade it to the bombers for James Gwilt

[saintsRrising]

Carlton will beat us badly.

What makes you say this?

They have:
* gutted their list as they last belatedly went into rebuild last year.
* brought in a lot of kids and young players

I think personally that the Blues are a strong chance for the spoon this year and this will be determined by how they go against the Bombers.

[whiskers3614]

Probably finish with top five draft pick, then trade it to the bombers for James Gwilt

GWILT would be a huge improvement on the last 2 morons we've brought in from that joint!
May not be a great footballer but is a decent human being(as far as we know anyway)

[Beno88]

Injuries can play a huge part but all things going well, we should win more than six games. Especially given we have 14 games at Etihad and only 5 interstate.

Playing Essendon and Carlton twice should result in four wins.

I can't see us losing to Brisbane at Etihad.

We've got two games against both Melbourne, North Melbourne and Western Bulldogs. Should win at least two of those.

There's seven already.

And wouldn't be shocked if we pinched a win or two against the likes of Geelong, Collingwood, Gold Coast or GWS.

[terry smith rules]

Some of you are not going to like what I am about to say.


Our first half can be good. We do all the right things. Have all the right numbers. And then….. we fall into a massive hole. Of our own making of course.

At the risk of sounding like the perennial pessimist, so early in the season, (I don’t want to be) that is a very familiar tune to me. Our good is very good. Our bad is just appalling, atrocious and fatal.

We just don’t seem to have the capacity to put together four quarters, of great footy, on a regular basis. We seem to manage three ok but there seems to always be a quarter of footy where everything fails.

And it's always that one quarter that sinks us.

Now, at the beginning of season 2016, it looks like nothing’s changed. It is kind of worrying from a supporter’s point of view. Even, if you happen to be one of the most ardent and loyal versions, which I am.


I personally didn’t take much from Wangaratta.

But reading your post apparently you did take plenty from the weekend

Your whole post is based around that game, otherwise what else is it based on...

Just FYI we virtually had no interchange in the second half as we subbed out Mcartin, Steven, Gilbert, Billings so of course we were going to fade

Have some faith in our processes and wait till the real stuff

[borderbarry]

A lot of doom and on this site after Wangaratta. Considering the players who did not play, we did not do that badly. The next two games should give us a better indication where we are at. At this stage, I will go with Plugs and say 6 - 8 wins, but if we perform better over the next two matches we could well wind more than 8. Lets see.

[spert]

I don't worry too much about pre season games, but jeez, in the Wang game the team footskills were deplorable in general, especially unforced errors and thats the kind of thing that cost us a couple of potential wins last season. I didn't see any real stand out from any player to encourage me much, apart from knowing Billings has a lot of class. Sadly I think it will be a repeat of last season unless a couple of the young guys really step it up.

[prwilkinson]

10-12th for mine. Can't read anything into the practice match on the weekend.

[To the top]

The Trial game was what is was.

To go back to my earlier "contribution", from the "A" Side, we were missing Fisher, Roberton, Carlisle, Riewoldt, Armitage, Montagna, Mc Cartin, Freeman, Gilbert, Steven and Longer (some totally, some from very early in the game and others from into the second quarter and from half time).

Granted we will not see Carlisle until 2017 - but he is on our LIst hence his inclusion.

What the second half would, to me at least, confirm is exactly what I presented in my earlier post.

We continue to have a chronic lack of AFL quality depth.

Into that NM appear to have played their strongest side which is probably (apart from Hawthorn) the oldest side in the AFL - with their mature bodies and experience including playing together.

So the NM agenda (team gelling) was the exact opposite to ours (viewing players for potential).

That said, as the season winds on, I would trust that our young legs and talent can get NM later in the season when they wilt because old age catches up with them and they hit the proverbial wall - and crack the sooks.

It has to happen sometime!

[The Fireman]

picks

[ripplug66]

picks

So when does that stop? And I think we may have got pretty much everyone we got even if we won 2 or 3 more games last year.

[The Fireman]

picks

So when does that stop? And I think we may have got pretty much everyone we got even if we won 2 or 3 more games last year.

I think we need another shot at high picks...I don't think we did well last time, mind you I think we will get them anyway...can't see us doing any better this year.

[st.byron]

What the second half would, to me at least, confirm is exactly what I presented in my earlier post.

We continue to have a chronic lack of AFL quality depth.

I think it's way too early to categorically say we have a chronic lack of depth. We have about 15 kids on the list 23 or younger. Many of them 20 or 21. They need time to develop and find their feet at senior level. I'm optimistic that we've recruited well and that our depth will develop and flesh out in the next few years.