our picks in 2015 draft.

[borderbarry]

We all know we have pick 14 which may end up as 18, but will still give us the 13th non academy kid.
According to my calculations, pick 45 is going to n up at 39, pick 68 at 55, pick 81 at 64.
Pick 45/39 will certainly be used on Rice, and Pick 68/55 maybe if we need additional points.
If we dont have to use 68/55 or Rice, should we use it in the draft? Same with 81/64? Or should we just settle on the one draft pick this year?

[8bloggs]

Borderbarry - can you explain how our picks 45, 68 and 81 end up as picks 39, 55 and 64?
I am guessing in your calculations that Academy / Father-Son selections have forced other clubs to use their picks to gain points due to bids from other clubs, AND this means the picks used for points result in the picks after them get 'promoted' in the order. If this is so, has the moving up of the picks been confirmed by the AFL as what will actually happen in the bidding process?
Unsure what you mean on whether we use 68/55 if we don't have to use it on Rice?

[Con Gorozidis]

Rice counts as a draft pick (he is in the Draft) - so we will be having at least two picks.

[borderbarry]

Sydney... No doubt will be forced to take Mills early in the first round. The picks they have from which they will have to use points, are, 33, 36, 37, 44, 69, 72. These picks are worth a total of 1994 points, That is all those picks combined. Pick 4 is worth 2034, pick 5 is 1878. So you can see if Mills gets called as early as some are predicting, Sydney are going to have to rely on 2016 for a few points.
GWS.. They are going to have to find points for Hopper, Kennedy, and Himmelberg in or close to the first round. Their picks for points are...10, 34, 43, 53, 55, 58 63, 64, 65, 70. A total of 2889 points. They are going to rely heavily on 2016 for additional points.
Brisbane...They need points for Keays and Hipwood in the first round and a number of players lower down. Assuming they use pick 2 on a non academy player, their numbers are 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, a total of 2820. Again, they will rely heavily on 2016 for points.
In the meantime all of these picks get wiped out. Most of them are before pick 45. Even more before 68 and 81. So you can see how our late picks will edge forward.

[loris]

Sydney... No doubt will be forced to take Mills early in the first round. The picks they have from which they will have to use points, are, 33, 36, 37, 44, 69, 72. These picks are worth a total of 1994 points, That is all those picks combined. Pick 4 is worth 2034, pick 5 is 1878. So you can see if Mills gets called as early as some are predicting, Sydney are going to have to rely on 2016 for a few points.
GWS.. They are going to have to find points for Hopper, Kennedy, and Himmelberg in or close to the first round. Their picks for points are...10, 34, 43, 53, 55, 58 63, 64, 65, 70. A total of 2889 points. They are going to rely heavily on 2016 for additional points.
Brisbane...They need points for Keays and Hipwood in the first round and a number of players lower down. Assuming they use pick 2 on a non academy player, their numbers are 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, a total of 2820. Again, they will rely heavily on 2016 for points.
In the meantime all of these picks get wiped out. Most of them are before pick 45. Even more before 68 and 81. So you can see how our late picks will edge forward.

Gee BB, you've just done my head in............ I'm a totally innumerate individual, so I'll need to take a 'Bex powder' and have a good lie down, before I can attempt to decipher your methodology

At least you can rest assured I won't try to argue with you

[RavsterII]

i would like to get
pick 14: clayton oliver
pick 45: bailey rice plus plus 5th and 6th rounder if need be
3rd rorunder: mitch brown,andrew moore or jake ballard would be great
remaining pick: sinclair\


we could target brown,moore,ballard in delisted free agency but all handy players

thoughts?

[bergholt]

i would like to get
pick 14: clayton oliver
pick 45: bailey rice plus plus 5th and 6th rounder if need be
3rd rorunder: mitch brown,andrew moore or jake ballard would be great
remaining pick: sinclair\


we could target brown,moore,ballard in delisted free agency but all handy players

thoughts?

Sounds OK, but we'll have to delist two more if you want to use three picks as well as promoting Sinclair.

[saintsRrising]

i would like to get
pick 14: clayton oliver
pick 45: bailey rice plus plus 5th and 6th rounder if need be
3rd rorunder: mitch brown,andrew moore or jake ballard would be great
remaining pick: sinclair\


we could target brown,moore,ballard in delisted free agency but all handy players

thoughts?

There are no points after pick 73.
Rice is very likely to need the points for our picks 45, 68 and some deducted from our first round selection next year.

[bergholt]

i would like to get
pick 14: clayton oliver
pick 45: bailey rice plus plus 5th and 6th rounder if need be
3rd rorunder: mitch brown,andrew moore or jake ballard would be great
remaining pick: sinclair\


we could target brown,moore,ballard in delisted free agency but all handy players

thoughts?

There are no points after pick 73.
Rice is very likely to need the points for our picks 45, 68 and some deducted from our first round selection next year.

Really? Currently 45+68 = 406 points, which with the 20% discount is 507 = pick 36. So if he's bid for later than 36 we'll be fine.

But both 45 and 68 are likely to end up at least 5 picks earlier. 40+63 = 541 + 20% = 676 = pick 28. Maybe even a better pick than that depending how the rest of the bidding goes. So I think we can afford him to be around pick 25 without hurting our first pick next year. Surely he's not going higher than that?

And all that said, even if we have to subtract 100 points or so from our first pick next year, I think we'll be fine. I expect us to finish in the bottom 6 again and none of those picks are less than 100 points apart. So it wouldn't actually change anything substantially.

[saintsRrising]

Really? Currently 45+68 = 406 points, which with the 20% discount is 507 = pick 36. So if he's bid for later than 36 we'll be fine.

But both 45 and 68 are likely to end up at least 5 picks earlier. 40+63 = 541 + 20% = 676 = pick 28. Maybe even a better pick than that depending how the rest of the bidding goes. So I think we can afford him to be around pick 25 without hurting our first pick next year. Surely he's not going higher than that?

And all that said, even if we have to subtract 100 points or so from our first pick next year, I think we'll be fine. I expect us to finish in the bottom 6 again and none of those picks are less than 100 points apart. So it wouldn't actually change anything substantially.

Is that what the rules actually say?

I don't think the picks "disappearing" alters the points value of the points. It just means that there will not be players taken and so the player you can select is effictively earlier. I mean the points value gets consumed, so why would the AFL effectively re-instate them?

Many pundits are thinking that a team witha low 20's pick will nominate Rice and if so our first round selection may drop by one or two places. As you are aware there is a bit of a buffer before it affects the pick, but if the pundits are right we will gone down say one place. Let's hope those clubs do not nominate him.

[8bloggs]

Sydney... No doubt will be forced to take Mills early in the first round. The picks they have from which they will have to use points, are, 33, 36, 37, 44, 69, 72. These picks are worth a total of 1994 points, That is all those picks combined. Pick 4 is worth 2034, pick 5 is 1878. So you can see if Mills gets called as early as some are predicting, Sydney are going to have to rely on 2016 for a few points.
GWS.. They are going to have to find points for Hopper, Kennedy, and Himmelberg in or close to the first round. Their picks for points are...10, 34, 43, 53, 55, 58 63, 64, 65, 70. A total of 2889 points. They are going to rely heavily on 2016 for additional points.
Brisbane...They need points for Keays and Hipwood in the first round and a number of players lower down. Assuming they use pick 2 on a non academy player, their numbers are 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, a total of 2820. Again, they will rely heavily on 2016 for points.
In the meantime all of these picks get wiped out. Most of them are before pick 45. Even more before 68 and 81. So you can see how our late picks will edge forward.

OK, but the selections Sydney/GWS need to give up will be impacted by the points required being reduced for the discount applied to Academy/GWS - 20% for first round nominations or 197 points thereafter.
Nevertheless our 45 and 68 picks will go forward and hopefully will give enough points to select Rice if another club bids earlier. I did some calculations based on Callum Twomey's top 25 phantom draft selections and reckon (if my maths is correct!) our 45 will go up to 40 and our 68 to 59. 40 and 59 gives 587 points combined which is about the same as 25 discounted. 40 alone is worth 31 discounted. So if another club bids for Rice we have enough points this year to cover bids from pick 25 onwards without it impacting our points next year. Pick 25 is mid-early second round so if you assume Rice is rated second round we should be OK.

[saintsRrising]

From pick 19 onwards, the percentage discount will increase with each pick. A maximum 197 point discount (20% of pick 18) will instead be applied.


406 +197 = 603 points.
Pick 31 = 606
Pick 32 = 584

So lets hope that Rice's name is not called at pick 25 or lower..

[evo]

From pick 19 onwards, the percentage discount will increase with each pick. A maximum 197 point discount (20% of pick 18) will instead be applied.


406 +197 = 603 points.
Pick 31 = 606
Pick 32 = 584

So lets hope that Rice's name is not called at pick 25 or lower..

Apart from the romance of the f/s thing is he not just another h/b flanker ?

[saintspremiers]

From pick 19 onwards, the percentage discount will increase with each pick. A maximum 197 point discount (20% of pick 18) will instead be applied.


406 +197 = 603 points.
Pick 31 = 606
Pick 32 = 584

So lets hope that Rice's name is not called at pick 25 or lower..

Apart from the romance of the f/s thing is he not just another h/b flanker ?

Most likely. We hardly ever get any f/s so it is a novelty. Look at bloody Spud and Plugger and their 8 daughters. How unlucky are we??

[ace]

Sydney... No doubt will be forced to take Mills early in the first round. The picks they have from which they will have to use points, are, 33, 36, 37, 44, 69, 72. These picks are worth a total of 1994 points, That is all those picks combined. Pick 4 is worth 2034, pick 5 is 1878. So you can see if Mills gets called as early as some are predicting, Sydney are going to have to rely on 2016 for a few points.
GWS.. They are going to have to find points for Hopper, Kennedy, and Himmelberg in or close to the first round. Their picks for points are...10, 34, 43, 53, 55, 58 63, 64, 65, 70. A total of 2889 points. They are going to rely heavily on 2016 for additional points.
Brisbane...They need points for Keays and Hipwood in the first round and a number of players lower down. Assuming they use pick 2 on a non academy player, their numbers are 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, a total of 2820. Again, they will rely heavily on 2016 for points.
In the meantime all of these picks get wiped out. Most of them are before pick 45. Even more before 68 and 81. So you can see how our late picks will edge forward.

IF Mills is called by another club (Essendon) at pick 4 worth 2034 points, Sydney get a an 20% discount so only have to stump up 1,627 points.
They have 1994 points.
They are forced to deploy picks in order
33 = 563 points
36 = 502 points
37 = 483 points
44 = 362 points
With the addition of points from picks 36, 37 and 44, pick 33 is promoted to become the new pick 4.
All other club's and Sydney's remaining picks are demoted by one place.
Essendon's old pick 4 once worth 2,034 points becomes new pick 5 worth 1,878 points
PIcks 36, 37 and 44 vanish from the order
Every pick slipped one when Essendon's old pick 4 fell to new pick 5, St Kilda's old pick 14 falls to new pick 15
4 picks vanish as picks 33, 36, 37, and 44 are used.
A net movement of picks after 44 of 3 places upward
For instance pick 50 would become pick 47 but hang on Sydney has a surplus of 283 points from pick 44
Old 50 was worth 273 points so the surplus creates a new pick in that place in the order
But it becomes new pick 48 worth 302 points
All picks there after e.g St Kilda's pick 68 advance by 2 places
St Kilda's old pick 68 worth 59 points becomes new pick 66 worth 80 points.
A gain of 21 points YEAH!

Very, very messy and dynamic.
The recruiters will have have the benefit of a computer that keeps track of the changing pick order and the points of each of those picks.
But they will need to be on their toes.

Every clubs picks thereafter slide by one
So their pick 69 = 49 points becomes pick 70 = 39 points (loss of 10 points OUCH!)
Pick 72 = 19 points becomes pick 73 = 9 points (loss of 10 points)

In the example above 4 picks 33, 36, 37 and 44 were needed to trump Essendon.
But Sydney got 2 new picks in return, picks 4 and pick 48

But what happens when a surplus is created using only one pick.
One pick vanishes but two new picks are created.

[ace]

The discount for academy and father-son picks is 20% only in the first round.

In the second round onwards the discount is a flat 197 points.

[Bunk_Moreland]

From pick 19 onwards, the percentage discount will increase with each pick. A maximum 197 point discount (20% of pick 18) will instead be applied.


406 +197 = 603 points.
Pick 31 = 606
Pick 32 = 584

So lets hope that Rice's name is not called at pick 25 or lower..

Apart from the romance of the f/s thing is he not just another h/b flanker ?

Most likely. We hardly ever get any f/s so it is a novelty. Look at bloody Spud and Plugger and their 8 daughters. How unlucky are we??

Rubbish. Pecked has son playing football and Frank Coughlin has a very likely lad in the next year or two.

Steven Stiller also has a very good FS prospect.

So the woe is us story is a fabrication

[ace]

Under the old system BEFORE the trade period,
a club with a father-son option would bid their 4th round pick.
Clubs in front of them could and would put forward an earlier bid.
It was normally left to club immediately in front of the father-son club to make the assessment and bid.
The father-son club would then offer their 3rd rounder.
And so on.
Under this system the club immediately in front knew they were not going to be left with the player because they would know where the player roughly stood in the order and so knew when the father-son club would not step up a round.

Under this new system
Essendon may well consider Mills to be number 4 in order.
But they may suspect that Sydney even with a 20% discount may not step up.
They would be then left with Mills who after 2 years could well ask for a transfer to Sydney.
Why bother says Dildo, other clubs may also pass up.
Only when another club calls Mills name will we know if Sydney will trump.
We are yet to see how other clubs behave when academy and father-son players are available.

[Bunk_Moreland]

Sydney... No doubt will be forced to take Mills early in the first round. The picks they have from which they will have to use points, are, 33, 36, 37, 44, 69, 72. These picks are worth a total of 1994 points, That is all those picks combined. Pick 4 is worth 2034, pick 5 is 1878. So you can see if Mills gets called as early as some are predicting, Sydney are going to have to rely on 2016 for a few points.
GWS.. They are going to have to find points for Hopper, Kennedy, and Himmelberg in or close to the first round. Their picks for points are...10, 34, 43, 53, 55, 58 63, 64, 65, 70. A total of 2889 points. They are going to rely heavily on 2016 for additional points.
Brisbane...They need points for Keays and Hipwood in the first round and a number of players lower down. Assuming they use pick 2 on a non academy player, their numbers are 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, a total of 2820. Again, they will rely heavily on 2016 for points.
In the meantime all of these picks get wiped out. Most of them are before pick 45. Even more before 68 and 81. So you can see how our late picks will edge forward.

IF Mills is called by another club (Essendon) at pick 4 worth 2034 points, Sydney get a an 20% discount so only have to stump up 1,627 points.
They have 1994 points.
They are forced to deploy picks in order
33 = 563 points
36 = 502 points
37 = 483 points
44 = 362 points
With the addition of points from picks 36, 37 and 44, pick 33 is promoted to become the new pick 4.
All other club's and Sydney's remaining picks are demoted by one place.
Essendon's old pick 4 once worth 2,034 points becomes new pick 5 worth 1,878 points
PIcks 36, 37 and 44 vanish from the order
Every pick slipped one when Essendon's old pick 4 fell to new pick 5, St Kilda's old pick 14 falls to new pick 15
4 picks vanish as picks 33, 36, 37, and 44 are used.
A net movement of picks after 44 of 3 places upward
For instance pick 50 would become pick 47 but hang on Sydney has a surplus of 283 points from pick 44
Old 50 was worth 273 points so the surplus creates a new pick in that place in the order
But it becomes new pick 48 worth 302 points
All picks there after e.g St Kilda's pick 68 advance by 2 places
St Kilda's old pick 68 worth 59 points becomes new pick 66 worth 80 points.
A gain of 21 points YEAH!

Very, very messy and dynamic.
The recruiters will have have the benefit of a computer that keeps track of the changing pick order and the points of each of those picks.
But they will need to be on their toes.

Every clubs picks thereafter slide by one
So their pick 69 = 49 points becomes pick 70 = 39 points (loss of 10 points OUCH!)
Pick 72 = 19 points becomes pick 73 = 9 points (loss of 10 points)

In the example above 4 picks 33, 36, 37 and 44 were needed to trump Essendon.
But Sydney got 2 new picks in return, picks 4 and pick 48

But what happens when a surplus is created using only one pick.
One pick vanishes but two new picks are created.

Great explanation. Over at BF someone calculated the assumed academy and FS bids and came up with a possible move of up to 11 places for our lower picks and we won't need to use next season I there is no bid for Rice before about pick 24.

Carlton look out. 4 top 20 picks then only enough points for FS Silvagni. Essendope a possibility as they are just pricks

[ace]

What happens if you run out of points bidding for an academy or father son choice.
e.g St Kilda bidding for Rice called by another club's second rounder.
The points come from 2016 but that would affect our first rounder in 2016.
The AFL did not want that to happen so the points start coming from our second rounder as Rice was called in the second round.
BUT oops we have sold our second rounder in 2016.
Lets move to our third rounder in 2016.

[stjay]

Really? Currently 45+68 = 406 points, which with the 20% discount is 507 = pick 36. So if he's bid for later than 36 we'll be fine.

But both 45 and 68 are likely to end up at least 5 picks earlier. 40+63 = 541 + 20% = 676 = pick 28. Maybe even a better pick than that depending how the rest of the bidding goes. So I think we can afford him to be around pick 25 without hurting our first pick next year. Surely he's not going higher than that?

And all that said, even if we have to subtract 100 points or so from our first pick next year, I think we'll be fine. I expect us to finish in the bottom 6 again and none of those picks are less than 100 points apart. So it wouldn't actually change anything substantially.

Is that what the rules actually say?

I don't think the picks "disappearing" alters the points value of the points. It just means that there will not be players taken and so the player you can select is effictively earlier. I mean the points value gets consumed, so why would the AFL effectively re-instate them?

Many pundits are thinking that a team witha low 20's pick will nominate Rice and if so our first round selection may drop by one or two places. As you are aware there is a bit of a buffer before it affects the pick, but if the pundits are right we will gone down say one place. Let's hope those clubs do not nominate him.

I thought the same initially but have subsequently been corrected. The utilisation of later picks to make up draft points for Academy & F/S elections will alter the pick number & value. It will make it confusing but could work out for us.

[kosifantutti]

From pick 19 onwards, the percentage discount will increase with each pick. A maximum 197 point discount (20% of pick 18) will instead be applied.


406 +197 = 603 points.
Pick 31 = 606
Pick 32 = 584

So lets hope that Rice's name is not called at pick 25 or lower..

Apart from the romance of the f/s thing is he not just another h/b flanker ?

Most likely. We hardly ever get any f/s so it is a novelty. Look at bloody Spud and Plugger and their 8 daughters. How unlucky are we??

Rubbish. Pecked has son playing football and Frank Coughlin has a very likely lad in the next year or two.

Steven Stiller also has a very good FS prospect.

So the woe is us story is a fabrication

We have had very few father sons over the last 30 years. Getting one this year and potentially a couple over the next few years doesn't change history.

[Bunk_Moreland]

What happens if you run out of points bidding for an academy or father son choice.
e.g St Kilda bidding for Rice called by another club's second rounder.
The points come from 2016 but that would affect our first rounder in 2016.
The AFL did not want that to happen so the points start coming from our second rounder as Rice was called in the second round.
BUT oops we have sold our second rounder in 2016.
Lets move to our third rounder in 2016.

Yes that's what happens.

What happens if Essendon bid for him @ pick 4?

Well Essendon have Bailey Rice @ pick 4 and we keep 14 and the other picks to do with what we like.

The way it goes

[Bunk_Moreland]

From pick 19 onwards, the percentage discount will increase with each pick. A maximum 197 point discount (20% of pick 18) will instead be applied.


406 +197 = 603 points.
Pick 31 = 606
Pick 32 = 584

So lets hope that Rice's name is not called at pick 25 or lower..

Apart from the romance of the f/s thing is he not just another h/b flanker ?

Most likely. We hardly ever get any f/s so it is a novelty. Look at bloody Spud and Plugger and their 8 daughters. How unlucky are we??

Rubbish. Pecked has son playing football and Frank Coughlin has a very likely lad in the next year or two.

Steven Stiller also has a very good FS prospect.

So the woe is us story is a fabrication

We have had very few father sons over the last 30 years. Getting one this year and potentially a couple over the next few years doesn't change history.

I wasn't talking about history, just commenting on the narrow argument used to have a woe is us attitude.

We have quite a few prospects coming through at least three more in the next couple of years. Frankie Couglins boy looks a real goer and apparently Steven Szillers boy is likely as well.

These are just the ones I know about, could be a heap more coming from those mid 90's teams where we had a decent side.

Historically we were low on FS, but that's not always going to be the case, and we really don't need to have a defeatist attitude.

[ripplug66]

From pick 19 onwards, the percentage discount will increase with each pick. A maximum 197 point discount (20% of pick 18) will instead be applied.


406 +197 = 603 points.
Pick 31 = 606
Pick 32 = 584

So lets hope that Rice's name is not called at pick 25 or lower..

Apart from the romance of the f/s thing is he not just another h/b flanker ?

Most likely. We hardly ever get any f/s so it is a novelty. Look at bloody Spud and Plugger and their 8 daughters. How unlucky are we??

Rubbish. Pecked has son playing football and Frank Coughlin has a very likely lad in the next year or two.

Steven Stiller also has a very good FS prospect.

So the woe is us story is a fabrication

We have had very few father sons over the last 30 years. Getting one this year and potentially a couple over the next few years doesn't change history.

I wasn't talking about history, just commenting on the narrow argument used to have a woe is us attitude.

We have quite a few prospects coming through at least three more in the next couple of years. Frankie Couglins boy looks a real goer and apparently Steven Szillers boy is likely as well.

These are just the ones I know about, could be a heap more coming from those mid 90's teams where we had a decent side.

Historically we were low on FS, but that's not always going to be the case, and we really don't need to have a defeatist attitude.

Unfortunately Dirty's boy probably wont make it. Excellent pace and skills and toughness but just to small and for some unknown reason hasn't even made the dragons list even though he has played senior footy at 16 years of age at St Pauls. I hope they at least play him next season but who knows what goes on there. As you say though our turn will hopefully come.