2015 GF - who will win and why

[perfectionist]

There are two "intangibles" at play in this GF. The "will" to win and the "experience" to win. As one increases, the other will decrease, at least over a period of a few years. Fourteen years ago, I thought that Brisbane was almost the complete team - and well coached too. Hawthorn has shown itself almost adept, although I think their peak was last year. West Coast has been building from 2010, which was sort of a fake last anyway. Top 5 finishes in the two years following showed that.

A "refreshing" new coach, who also happens to be smart, in 2014, has brought them to the 2015 GF. What impressed me most last week about WC was their physical strength in individual contests. There skill level on the forward line is a match to Hawthorn's. Their back six work well together with a mix of skill and strength, but not height. Hawthorn has all three characteristics in their back six. For more than 80% of GF wins, the team with the best back line has taken the flag. In a close game, I see this as tipping the odds slightly towards Hawthorn.

Hawthorn now have the experience to stick to their game plan in a way that Collingwood did not in GF1 in 2010. Alas, a bounce gave them a chance to remedy that the next week. But does Hawthorn have that hunger when the crunch comes, that we saw in both the Saints and Collingwood in 2010? Hunger at 99% in a GF may not beat hunger at 100%.

A tough game to pick - but I say, Hawthorn by 27 points in a game that will be close until the 15 minute mark of the final quarter. But then again, who knows?

[BackFromUSA]

Surprise move? Brian Lake goes forward and kicks 3 goals. Hawks by 9 points.

[desertsaint]

The better team should win - need to be off par not to. Hawks!

[Gershwin]

Best team against top opposition is Hawthorn.

[felix]

West coast by 11 they have the tall s and the smalls all in good form they are tough and now how to find the goals, it won't be a three peat but a defeat.

[SainterK]

Eagles.

Who cares they are young, they aren't burdened by history, eagles have flags and in recent memory.

They didn't just beat hawthorn, they smacked them.

Alistair has his players believing they were "flat" that day.

Dangerous strategy, I'd of challenged them to rise against a decent competitor as they will be shell shocked when they realise it had nothing to do with flatness.

Eagles by 23, Norm Smith to LeCras

[saintspremiers]

Hawks by 3 goals.

But not unhappy if WCE wins either.

Just a relief to go to a non-offensive grand final where I don't actively hate one of the teams!

Hoping the hot weather brings out a bit of colour in the crowd and they don't run out of beer!

[ripplug66]

Hawks by 3 goals.

But not unhappy if WCE wins either.

Just a relief to go to a non-offensive grand final where I don't actively hate one of the teams!

Hoping the hot weather brings out a bit of colour in the crowd and they don't run out of beer!

Wouldn't it actually better if you hated a side. God knows why you would hate but at least you have the other to truly follow. Anyway I want WCE to win because of Crippa and Hutchy but Hawks by plenty. 6 goals. And I certainly don't hate the Hawks. They have just won enough. At three quarter time of the 1971 GF it looked like we would have 2 flags to their one. Now look at it.

[Harves Man]

In my humble opinion, the Hawks will win - they are just so focussed.

[saintspremiers]

Hawks by 3 goals.

But not unhappy if WCE wins either.

Just a relief to go to a non-offensive grand final where I don't actively hate one of the teams!

Hoping the hot weather brings out a bit of colour in the crowd and they don't run out of beer!

Wouldn't it actually better if you hated a side. God knows why you would hate but at least you have the other to truly follow. Anyway I want WCE to win because of Crippa and Hutchy but Hawks by plenty. 6 goals. And I certainly don't hate the Hawks. They have just won enough. At three quarter time of the 1971 GF it looked like we would have 2 flags to their one. Now look at it.

As I said, I don't hate either side.

Unlike your former self, I do hate Freo and the Swines, along with plenty of other Saints fans

[ripplug66]

Hawks by 3 goals.

But not unhappy if WCE wins either.

Just a relief to go to a non-offensive grand final where I don't actively hate one of the teams!

Hoping the hot weather brings out a bit of colour in the crowd and they don't run out of beer!

Wouldn't it actually better if you hated a side. God knows why you would hate but at least you have the other to truly follow. Anyway I want WCE to win because of Crippa and Hutchy but Hawks by plenty. 6 goals. And I certainly don't hate the Hawks. They have just won enough. At three quarter time of the 1971 GF it looked like we would have 2 flags to their one. Now look at it.

As I said, I don't hate either side.

Unlike your former self, I do hate Freo and the Swines, along with plenty of other Saints fans

Didn't you read what I said. If you hated a side wouldn't that mean you can really barrack hard for another? I like to go to the footy with a side to follow and a reason. My reason this week is Crippa and Hutchy.

[saintspremiers]

Hawks by 3 goals.

But not unhappy if WCE wins either.

Just a relief to go to a non-offensive grand final where I don't actively hate one of the teams!

Hoping the hot weather brings out a bit of colour in the crowd and they don't run out of beer!

Wouldn't it actually better if you hated a side. God knows why you would hate but at least you have the other to truly follow. Anyway I want WCE to win because of Crippa and Hutchy but Hawks by plenty. 6 goals. And I certainly don't hate the Hawks. They have just won enough. At three quarter time of the 1971 GF it looked like we would have 2 flags to their one. Now look at it.

As I said, I don't hate either side.

Unlike your former self, I do hate Freo and the Swines, along with plenty of other Saints fans

Didn't you read what I said. If you hated a side wouldn't that mean you can really barrack hard for another? I like to go to the footy with a side to follow and a reason. My reason this week is Crippa and Hutchy.

Yes agree. I'm on the fence tomorrow.

I like the concept of seeing a side win 3 in a row and actually witnessing all 3 live, but don't dislike WCE. At least they aren't drugfucked like they were a decade ago. And as for Cripps - he's a traitor so I don't care about him and Hutchings was a delisted rookie so hardly counts. If the Hawks win I'll be pleased for Big Mac who did nothing wrong against our club.

[ripplug66]

Yes agree. I'm on the fence tomorrow.

I like the concept of seeing a side win 3 in a row and actually witnessing all 3 live, but don't dislike WCE. At least they aren't drugfucked like they were a decade ago. And as for Cripps - he's a traitor so I don't care about him and Hutchings was a delisted rookie so hardly counts. If the Hawks win I'll be pleased for Big Mac who did nothing wrong against our club.

Crippa didn't like Victoria and loved his family and girlfriend. If that's being a traitor then so is Hickey. And Hutchy may hardly count for you but like Crippa he does with me. Anyway have a good day. It sounds like Cripps will be booed by you and you wont even count Hutchy. I will have a great day and a better night at the September club. Now that is a great venue and easy to get into for nothing.

[saintspremiers]

Yes agree. I'm on the fence tomorrow.

I like the concept of seeing a side win 3 in a row and actually witnessing all 3 live, but don't dislike WCE. At least they aren't drugfucked like they were a decade ago. And as for Cripps - he's a traitor so I don't care about him and Hutchings was a delisted rookie so hardly counts. If the Hawks win I'll be pleased for Big Mac who did nothing wrong against our club.

Crippa didn't like Victoria and loved his family and girlfriend. If that's being a traitor then so is Hickey. And Hutchy may hardly count for you but like Crippa he does with me. Anyway have a good day. It sounds like Cripps will be booed by you and you wont even count Hutchy. I will have a great day and a better night at the September club. Now that is a great venue and easy to get into for nothing.

No I won't boo either player. I thought the September club was invite only?
Anyway, I'll pass on those AFL sanctioned events.

[ripplug66]

Yes agree. I'm on the fence tomorrow.

I like the concept of seeing a side win 3 in a row and actually witnessing all 3 live, but don't dislike WCE. At least they aren't drugfucked like they were a decade ago. And as for Cripps - he's a traitor so I don't care about him and Hutchings was a delisted rookie so hardly counts. If the Hawks win I'll be pleased for Big Mac who did nothing wrong against our club.

Crippa didn't like Victoria and loved his family and girlfriend. If that's being a traitor then so is Hickey. And Hutchy may hardly count for you but like Crippa he does with me. Anyway have a good day. It sounds like Cripps will be booed by you and you wont even count Hutchy. I will have a great day and a better night at the September club. Now that is a great venue and easy to get into for nothing.

No I won't boo either player. I thought the September club was invite only?
Anyway, I'll pass on those AFL sanctioned events.

It is invite only and I certainly wasn't invited but very easy to get into. Great event because you have fun.

[Trev from the Bush]

Hawks by 3 goals.

But not unhappy if WCE wins either.

Just a relief to go to a non-offensive grand final where I don't actively hate one of the teams!

Hoping the hot weather brings out a bit of colour in the crowd and they don't run out of beer!

Wouldn't it actually better if you hated a side. God knows why you would hate but at least you have the other to truly follow. Anyway I want WCE to win because of Crippa and Hutchy but Hawks by plenty. 6 goals. And I certainly don't hate the Hawks. They have just won enough. At three quarter time of the 1971 GF it looked like we would have 2 flags to their one. Now look at it.

Thanks for reviving my 44 year-old recurring nightmare! Damn Bob Keddie!

Seriously though, the four teams that the Saints struggled the most with this season (in order) were the Eagles - twice, Sydney, Fremantle and Hawthorn. Apart from the Swans being hit by injuries at the end of the year there was no surprise they were the top four teams. Of the four, only the Hawks played in fits and spurts when we played them. Our pressure was terrific apart from three or four 5 minute lapses. The Hawks were able to kick three goals each time our pressure dropped off.

That is the lkey to tomorrow. Give the Hawks a sniff and they will punish you. West Coast are miles better than the Saints and their game is built on pressure. That said, the wide open wings of the MCG will give the Hawks space to exercise their precision kicking. They are the best kicking side I have ever seen; some of their disposals make you thik you are watching the European Premier League.

The Eagles will be right in it but the sublime skills of the Hawks will make them an imortal team. Hawthorn by 12 points.

[noddy04]

A DRAW....just cos

[matrix]

Don't fussed who wins.
Would be good to see a triple win tho.

Thanks nk hawks defense might be too good for eagles
Then again the eagles defensive zones are unreal.

Tough call.
I'll go the hawks by 8 points.

[Goose is king]

Hawthorn 37 points. Roughead norm smith

[mambo2706]

I am going for the Hawks for the Victorian factor. I also like Big Mac more than Cripps and Hutchy and would rather see him with a medal around his neck.

[kosifantutti]

I've only hated the Eagles for 28 years. I've hated the Hawks a lot longer.
Go Eagles.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

I think Hawthorn are on a mission... I said a few weeks back that whoever wins the WCE vs Hawthorn qualifying final wins the flag but I reckon North showed how to beat WCE in the prelim they didn't have the skills to finish it off and their forwards let WC off the hook I think Hawthorn (especially after losing the flag to Sydney ) won't let WC off the hook they will be more disciplined more focused and more ruthless and win the flag... I just get the feel WC are celebrating just being there where hawthorn are focused on not stuffing it up

[Enrico_Misso]

Having sat through every minute of every Hawthorn premiership except for 1961 i am a bit sick of them winning.
But i don't dislike them or West Coast, whereas I despise Freo and don't even get me started on Sydney.

Hoping for a close exciting game.

Hawthorn should win because
- their A game is the best in the business
- their experience will see them make the right decisions at the key moments

However
- West Coast are an exciting fast scoring team
- they will be hungry. For Hawthorn this is just another layer of icing on the cake. For West Coast this IS the cake.
- West Coast are used to training and playing in mid 20 temps so will be less like to "blow up" in 30 degree heat
- West Coast will be fresher with the week off and no travelling

Hawks by 21.

[Con Gorozidis]

it won't be a three peat but a defeat.

Nice line. Well played!

[Bluthy]

It's a toughie but my gut is saying West Coast. Despite the huge advantage of playing on their home ground, Hawthorn have so many oldies with dodgy hamstrings and backs - Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Lake, Rioli, Burgyone - that I feel on a hot day, this might be just one game too much for them. The tanned West Coast running-bots in their peak will love the heat. But then those key Hawks are such creative play makers they can turn the game in just a few passages of play. And they have most brilliant modern day coach in Clarkson who will probably pull some unique tactic just for this game (complete with a hand drawn picture of an Eagle being held to the ground) - he loves change just to be unpredictable and isn't scared to take risks (take note Mr Lyon).