I think we'll get a top 4 pick in the draft.

[samuraisaint]

We have been valiant all year, but just can't see us beating any of those sides with a team that looks tired from a tough campaign. The saints have proven me wrong this year, and I am all the happier for it, but just looking at the FIXture, I can't see us finishing above Melbourne - they play Carlton at the G, and I just think that the pressure will really be on Essendon now. They may not win another two, but they will definitely win one of those two gettable ones I mentioned. And then it does come down to percentage.
The Club are definitely looking to the pre-season now, and I can see some early finishes to the season coming up for a few players for us. Essendon and Melbourne are not in the same situation or phase as us. They have winnable games and the expectations are not one of developing a side. I want to win every game, but I can't see us winning any of them logically.
GWS are very gettable at Etihad for Melbourne IMO.
Anyway, my main point is who do you think we should grab in the draft, and who is likely, if we get pick #4.

But pick 4 isn't likely based on the 18 games we have seen so far. And how can Essendon gain 10% with just one extra win this late in the year. Pick 5 is the most likely pick we will have.

They won't have to if we lose by 60 points to North in Hobart - like we did last year, and 80 points against West Coast in Perth - like we have done, so, so many times in the past 30 years. Did you see the article in the paper whiuch quoted our ex-coach Watson saying that the next month is critical for Hird and Essendon's future? Make no bones about it, they will be desperate; desperate to win against the Suns and Collingwood (for Fletcher's retirement game). And they are two winnable games. We don't have any games remotely as winnable as that.
Melbourne will beat Carlton at the G - don't think there is any argument there, and then they go above us anyway - they also have a good chance against GWS down here, as they will be out of finals calculations by the final round.

We have all of our tough games in one bunch right at the end of the season, when all of our players are stuffed from a hard and long season, and when our rivals need to win as they are jockeying for position. That is why I think we will finish fourth from the bottom. So, who will we be likely to pick up in the draft with our fourth pick then?

Our record against the Eagles in Perth has been OK lately. Six goals the biggest loss in the last 10 years so I don't understand where 80 points is coming from.

?

[kosifantutti]

That is why I think we will finish fourth from the bottom.

?

[Con Gorozidis]

They beat us by 53 on our own dung heap in Rd 8 this year.
So 80 points in Perth seems reasonable based on that.

[samuraisaint]

That is why I think we will finish fourth from the bottom.

?

We will be bottom five after tomorrow. Our last 6 games have pretty much gone as I suspected. The draw against Geelong notwithstanding. Really pretty disappointing, however expected.

[kosifantutti]

I think you said Essendon would catch us on percentage.

[samuraisaint]

I think you said Essendon would catch us on percentage.

Essendon have been poorer than I expected yes, although they should've beaten the Suns.

But give this game another 15 minutes and they still might!

[Con Gorozidis]

Pick 6 kind of sucks. Pies get pick 7 and they are a long way ahead of us.
Also, if you include the two NSW boys, we are really only going to get the 8th best player.

[samuraisaint]

Pick 6 kind of sucks. Pies get pick 7 and they are a long way ahead of us.
Also, if you include the two NSW boys, we are really only going to get the 8th best player.

Melbourne should win tomorrow - they're playing GWS in Melbourne. We will get pick 5. And based on this past 6 weeks, boy do we need it.

[Con Gorozidis]

Pick 6 kind of sucks. Pies get pick 7 and they are a long way ahead of us.
Also, if you include the two NSW boys, we are really only going to get the 8th best player.

Melbourne should win tomorrow - they're playing GWS in Melbourne. We will get pick 5. And based on this past 6 weeks, boy do we need it.

Hope so. But you wouldnt want to put money on Melbourne. Wouldnt trust them to beat an egg in a pavlova making competition.

[samuraisaint]

No, they're poor Con, no doubt about that, but if the best they can do is 6 wins after 2 years with Roos and the new board then they better give up. I was very worried about our last 6 games and unfortunately my fears basically came to fruition. Shame we couldn't have got over Geelong, but a draw was at least some reward.

[dragit]

Wouldnt trust them to beat an egg in a pavlova making competition.

[Con Gorozidis]

Well at the start of the season my hope was for:

6 wins
% above 80
Pick 4 in the draft

In the end will get:

6.5 wins
% of 78.4
Pick 5/6 in the draft.

[ace]

That draw probably wont hurt our draft position.
We still need Melbourne to win one more game, they were very unlikely to improve their percentage enough to get above us on the ladder.
Simple we lose 2 games out of 2, they win 1 and lose 2 out of 3.

Carltank
Bristank
Gold Tank
and Essentank
All have no hope of finishing above us.
That makes our pick either 5 or 6 assuming no first round compensation picks for free agents for Carltank, Bristank, Essentank or Melbtank.
Gold Tank players are too young for free agency.

Notice how Eddie has had his team tank to get pick 7

There you go, Melbourne wins and slips above us on the ladder..
If we had won that game we would have got pick 6 because of a higher percentage, instead of pick 5
As it has turned out that draw allowed our players to play their guts out without hurting our draft prospects.

[samuraisaint]

I think you said Essendon would catch us on percentage.

carlisle's kick goes straight a couple of weeks ago against gold coast, and it was close, and everything I predicted would have happened.

[kosifantutti]

Everything other than Melbourne beating Carlton, Essendon catching our percentage and us losing every game.

[RW&B]

Everything other than Melbourne beating Carlton, Essendon catching our percentage and us losing every game.

[samuraisaint]

I said we wouldn't win another game in the last six rounds. We didn't. I wish we had've though.

[Con Gorozidis]

I said we wouldn't win another game in the last six rounds. We didn't. I wish we had've though.

Well yes and no. Rather we had a pick in front of Melbourne. I am still fuming they got pick 2 and 3 last year as compo for that hack Frawley. That was another AFL stitch up. Dal Santo is much better than Frawley.

[plugger66]

I said we wouldn't win another game in the last six rounds. We didn't. I wish we had've though.

Well yes and no. Rather we had a pick in front of Melbourne. I am still fuming they got pick 2 and 3 last year as compo for that hack Frawley. That was another AFL stitch up. Dal Santo is much better than Frawley.

Its about age, salary and length of contract. Anyway a straight kick from Savage would have meant you were 100% wrong smauraisaint.

[SuperDuper]

I said we wouldn't win another game in the last six rounds. We didn't. I wish we had've though.

Well yes and no. Rather we had a pick in front of Melbourne. I am still fuming they got pick 2 and 3 last year as compo for that hack Frawley. That was another AFL stitch up. Dal Santo is much better than Frawley.

Its about age, salary and length of contract. Anyway a straight kick from Savage would have meant you were 100% wrong smauraisaint.

A straight kick from Carlisle and he would have been 100% right...
It was certainly a close call...