I think we'll get a top 4 pick in the draft.

[samuraisaint]

Yep, I think we will finish fourth from the bottom this year with 6 wins. We won't win another game this year, as every team we play has us covered. The games at Etihad we will be competitive in, but we could be in for two hidings interstate.
Meanwhile our rivals similarly placed should both win two games.
Melbourne are on the same number of wins than us, but have an inferior percentage - however they play Carlton at the MCG and GWS at Etihad here. They will at least beat Carlton and will probably be good enough to just get over GWS here, in Melbourne in the final round.
Essendon are one win behind us, but play Gold Coast in Qld, which I believe they will set themselves to win, and Collingwood at the MCG in the final round, which in all likelihood will be Fletcher's retirement match. Collingwood have fallen away quite badly and Essendon won't be allowed to throw in the towel in that game. Even if Essendon don't win both those games I think that they will pass us on percentage due to some of the difficult games we face in the next month, with the final game against West Coast a possible 80 point loss.
I'm not being a pessimist, just a realist. The signs over the past two games haven't been great with a lot of our younger players showing signs of fatigue, and the likelihood of some rusty players given an opportunity to show what they've got in the seniors.

[kosifantutti]

Melbourne won't get close to GWS and Essendon won't win another game.

[samuraisaint]

Melbourne won't get close to GWS and Essendon won't win another game.

Disagree. They will thrash Gold Coast. Gold Coast are awful. They could also beat Collingwood, who are also awful at the moment. But they will definitely beat the Suns. They have a lot of players injured and are already looking at next year. Essendon, on the other hand, cannot afford to keep losing. It will create a lot more pressure on the club and playing group.

Melbourne could beat GWS from what I have seen this year, especially if GWS drop the next couple of games (which they will), and if finals don't look likely (which they won't). Even if Melbourne don't beat GWS they will still beat Carlton comfortably and finish above us.

I think we have performed admirably this year, but I am under no illusions about the next month. For us, it is all about getting ready for the preseason already, and thinking about the draft.

So, who do we think we will get with our first pick?

[Con Gorozidis]

Melbourne won't get close to GWS and Essendon won't win another game.

This.
I can see Melb maybe getting over the Blues but that is no certainty.
Essendon look unlikely to beat anyone.
GWS are actually decent. Melbourne would need to get them on an off day.

But hey if the OP is right and we end up with 6 wins and a % over 80 and pick 4 - I will be pretty darn happy with that to be honest.

[Con Gorozidis]

So, who do we think we will get with our first pick?

I personally think we need outside run and class. So for me it is Parish v Ah Chee.

Callum Ah Chee
182cm/71kg
9/10/97
Half-forward/midfielder
Western Australia/South Fremantle
Showed his talent at the MCG last month, when he starred for the NAB AFL Academy. Ah Chee, the younger brother of Port Adelaide's Brendon, gathered 19 disposals, kicked two goals and took a huge mark. None of it should have been a surprise. The West Australian jumps high, runs the 20-metre sprint in 2.88 seconds, has blistering agility and can turn a game with his class in the midfield and across half-forward.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-04-12/a ... rs-impress

[stevie]

Gold Coast are awful? They drew with Wet Toast and beat Brisbane in their last 2 games. Ok, the Lions are crap but are still very competitive.

The Suns should beat the cheats up here. If Carlisle can stop Lynchy or Charlie then sign the flog!

[plugger66]

Melbourne won't get close to GWS and Essendon won't win another game.

Disagree. They will thrash Gold Coast. Gold Coast are awful. They could also beat Collingwood, who are also awful at the moment. But they will definitely beat the Suns. They have a lot of players injured and are already looking at next year. Essendon, on the other hand, cannot afford to keep losing. It will create a lot more pressure on the club and playing group.

Melbourne could beat GWS from what I have seen this year, especially if GWS drop the next couple of games (which they will), and if finals don't look likely (which they won't). Even if Melbourne don't beat GWS they will still beat Carlton comfortably and finish above us.

I think we have performed admirably this year, but I am under no illusions about the next month. For us, it is all about getting ready for the preseason already, and thinking about the draft.

So, who do we think we will get with our first pick?

Its a very strange time to say GC are awful. They won their last game and drew with WCE the game before that. There is no way Essendon can win two games and if you say GC are awful what do you say about Essendon. Melbourne should beat carlton but they wont beat GWS. I would say we cant win another game but I hope we do win 4 games. Pick 5 or 6. Who cares.

[Old Mate]

Pick 5 or 6

[desertsaint]

we may get a win, but on paper can't really pick one. i think where we are is pretty spot on - a better team than all below and worse than all above. Melbourne should beat Carlton though.

[borderbarry]

I agree with a lot of the above. Pick 5 will be ours, unless WADA do something with Essendon then pick 4.

[borderbarry]

I agree with a lot of the above. Pick 5 will be ours, unless WADA do something with Essendon then pick 4.

[Beno88]

Essendon won't win again. They are the worst team in the competition at the moment.

Melbourne haven't won at Etihad since it was Telstra Dome, GWS will pump them.

We will beat Sydney or Geelong. The saints aren't done yet.

[Darth Vader]

5 or 6 unless AFL hands out priority picks to Bris or Carlton.

[saynta]

Essendon won't win again. They are the worst team in the competition at the moment.

Melbourne haven't won at Etihad since it was Telstra Dome, GWS will pump them.

We will beat Sydney or Geelong. The saints aren't done yet.

We could beat both.

[plugger66]

Essendon won't win again. They are the worst team in the competition at the moment.

Melbourne haven't won at Etihad since it was Telstra Dome, GWS will pump them.

We will beat Sydney or Geelong. The saints aren't done yet.

We could beat both.

Yes and we could win all 4 but we are more likely to lose all 4.

[Bunk_Moreland]

We will beat Sydney or Geelong. The saints aren't done yet.

How do you come to that conclusion?

[samuraisaint]

We have been valiant all year, but just can't see us beating any of those sides with a team that looks tired from a tough campaign. The saints have proven me wrong this year, and I am all the happier for it, but just looking at the FIXture, I can't see us finishing above Melbourne - they play Carlton at the G, and I just think that the pressure will really be on Essendon now. They may not win another two, but they will definitely win one of those two gettable ones I mentioned. And then it does come down to percentage.
The Club are definitely looking to the pre-season now, and I can see some early finishes to the season coming up for a few players for us. Essendon and Melbourne are not in the same situation or phase as us. They have winnable games and the expectations are not one of developing a side. I want to win every game, but I can't see us winning any of them logically.
GWS are very gettable at Etihad for Melbourne IMO.
Anyway, my main point is who do you think we should grab in the draft, and who is likely, if we get pick #4.

[plugger66]

We have been valiant all year, but just can't see us beating any of those sides with a team that looks tired from a tough campaign. The saints have proven me wrong this year, and I am all the happier for it, but just looking at the FIXture, I can't see us finishing above Melbourne - they play Carlton at the G, and I just think that the pressure will really be on Essendon now. They may not win another two, but they will definitely win one of those two gettable ones I mentioned. And then it does come down to percentage.
The Club are definitely looking to the pre-season now, and I can see some early finishes to the season coming up for a few players for us. Essendon and Melbourne are not in the same situation or phase as us. They have winnable games and the expectations are not one of developing a side. I want to win every game, but I can't see us winning any of them logically.
GWS are very gettable at Etihad for Melbourne IMO.
Anyway, my main point is who do you think we should grab in the draft, and who is likely, if we get pick #4.

But pick 4 isn't likely based on the 18 games we have seen so far. And how can Essendon gain 10% with just one extra win this late in the year. Pick 5 is the most likely pick we will have.

[CURLY]

Only chance maybe if the WC game has no effect on their ladder position and they lay down.

[Beno88]

We will beat Sydney or Geelong. The saints aren't done yet.

How do you come to that conclusion?

Positivity. Confidence. Belief.

[Stephen Theodore]

I agree with a lot of the above. Pick 5 will be ours, unless WADA do something with Essendon then pick 4.

+ 1

[samuraisaint]

We have been valiant all year, but just can't see us beating any of those sides with a team that looks tired from a tough campaign. The saints have proven me wrong this year, and I am all the happier for it, but just looking at the FIXture, I can't see us finishing above Melbourne - they play Carlton at the G, and I just think that the pressure will really be on Essendon now. They may not win another two, but they will definitely win one of those two gettable ones I mentioned. And then it does come down to percentage.
The Club are definitely looking to the pre-season now, and I can see some early finishes to the season coming up for a few players for us. Essendon and Melbourne are not in the same situation or phase as us. They have winnable games and the expectations are not one of developing a side. I want to win every game, but I can't see us winning any of them logically.
GWS are very gettable at Etihad for Melbourne IMO.
Anyway, my main point is who do you think we should grab in the draft, and who is likely, if we get pick #4.

But pick 4 isn't likely based on the 18 games we have seen so far. And how can Essendon gain 10% with just one extra win this late in the year. Pick 5 is the most likely pick we will have.

They won't have to if we lose by 60 points to North in Hobart - like we did last year, and 80 points against West Coast in Perth - like we have done, so, so many times in the past 30 years. Did you see the article in the paper whiuch quoted our ex-coach Watson saying that the next month is critical for Hird and Essendon's future? Make no bones about it, they will be desperate; desperate to win against the Suns and Collingwood (for Fletcher's retirement game). And they are two winnable games. We don't have any games remotely as winnable as that.
Melbourne will beat Carlton at the G - don't think there is any argument there, and then they go above us anyway - they also have a good chance against GWS down here, as they will be out of finals calculations by the final round.

We have all of our tough games in one bunch right at the end of the season, when all of our players are stuffed from a hard and long season, and when our rivals need to win as they are jockeying for position. That is why I think we will finish fourth from the bottom. So, who will we be likely to pick up in the draft with our fourth pick then?

[plugger66]

We have been valiant all year, but just can't see us beating any of those sides with a team that looks tired from a tough campaign. The saints have proven me wrong this year, and I am all the happier for it, but just looking at the FIXture, I can't see us finishing above Melbourne - they play Carlton at the G, and I just think that the pressure will really be on Essendon now. They may not win another two, but they will definitely win one of those two gettable ones I mentioned. And then it does come down to percentage.
The Club are definitely looking to the pre-season now, and I can see some early finishes to the season coming up for a few players for us. Essendon and Melbourne are not in the same situation or phase as us. They have winnable games and the expectations are not one of developing a side. I want to win every game, but I can't see us winning any of them logically.
GWS are very gettable at Etihad for Melbourne IMO.
Anyway, my main point is who do you think we should grab in the draft, and who is likely, if we get pick #4.

But pick 4 isn't likely based on the 18 games we have seen so far. And how can Essendon gain 10% with just one extra win this late in the year. Pick 5 is the most likely pick we will have.

They won't have to if we lose by 60 points to North in Hobart - like we did last year, and 80 points against West Coast in Perth - like we have done, so, so many times in the past 30 years. Did you see the article in the paper whiuch quoted our ex-coach Watson saying that the next month is critical for Hird and Essendon's future? Make no bones about it, they will be desperate; desperate to win against the Suns and Collingwood (for Fletcher's retirement game). And they are two winnable games. We don't have any games remotely as winnable as that.
Melbourne will beat Carlton at the G - don't think there is any argument there, and then they go above us anyway - they also have a good chance against GWS down here, as they will be out of finals calculations by the final round.

We have all of our tough games in one bunch right at the end of the season, when all of our players are stuffed from a hard and long season, and when our rivals need to win as they are jockeying for position. That is why I think we will finish fourth from the bottom. So, who will we be likely to pick up in the draft with our fourth pick then?

Have you seen Essendons form compared to ours in the last 6 weeks. I can quote figures as well that would suggest we will finish 20% above them but I prefer just looking at the current form. Pick 5 based on form at the moment but one win by us not based on form gives us pick 6 maybe. The odds would clearly have us getting pick 5 so I will work on that until I see otherwise.

[kosifantutti]

We have been valiant all year, but just can't see us beating any of those sides with a team that looks tired from a tough campaign. The saints have proven me wrong this year, and I am all the happier for it, but just looking at the FIXture, I can't see us finishing above Melbourne - they play Carlton at the G, and I just think that the pressure will really be on Essendon now. They may not win another two, but they will definitely win one of those two gettable ones I mentioned. And then it does come down to percentage.
The Club are definitely looking to the pre-season now, and I can see some early finishes to the season coming up for a few players for us. Essendon and Melbourne are not in the same situation or phase as us. They have winnable games and the expectations are not one of developing a side. I want to win every game, but I can't see us winning any of them logically.
GWS are very gettable at Etihad for Melbourne IMO.
Anyway, my main point is who do you think we should grab in the draft, and who is likely, if we get pick #4.

But pick 4 isn't likely based on the 18 games we have seen so far. And how can Essendon gain 10% with just one extra win this late in the year. Pick 5 is the most likely pick we will have.

They won't have to if we lose by 60 points to North in Hobart - like we did last year, and 80 points against West Coast in Perth - like we have done, so, so many times in the past 30 years. Did you see the article in the paper whiuch quoted our ex-coach Watson saying that the next month is critical for Hird and Essendon's future? Make no bones about it, they will be desperate; desperate to win against the Suns and Collingwood (for Fletcher's retirement game). And they are two winnable games. We don't have any games remotely as winnable as that.
Melbourne will beat Carlton at the G - don't think there is any argument there, and then they go above us anyway - they also have a good chance against GWS down here, as they will be out of finals calculations by the final round.

We have all of our tough games in one bunch right at the end of the season, when all of our players are stuffed from a hard and long season, and when our rivals need to win as they are jockeying for position. That is why I think we will finish fourth from the bottom. So, who will we be likely to pick up in the draft with our fourth pick then?

Our record against the Eagles in Perth has been OK lately. Six goals the biggest loss in the last 10 years so I don't understand where 80 points is coming from.

[samuraisaint]

Plugger, I agree with a lot of what you are posting - but I am suggesting that our form against good sides has not been top shelf this year - shows improvement, but is still comparable to the previous two years, 2013-14, when playing top 8 sides - or thereabouts. Regarding the Eagles: the last ten years, before the last three, we had strong sides. Before that they beat us by around 80 points loads of times over there. Let's have another look at our form against top 8 (or thereabouts) sides:

Hawthorn - 63 points (okay improvement)
Port Adelade - 63 points (slight improvement)
Collingwood (when they were flying and had no injuries) - 74 points
West Coast (here) - 53 points
Adelaide Crows - 46 points
Fremantle (here) - 37 points

In the next four rounds we play sides who have flogged us over the past four seasons, two of them interstate: North, Geelong, Sydney and West Coast.

You can't compare these sides to the sides (in the condition they are now) which I am speaking about in relation to an Essendon with their backs to the wall. We have in the past beaten sides at the tail end of the year on the back of shocking form, when we've had club champions retiring, or facing sides who have had mediocre seasons, when we have been rank outsiders, and this is what I think Essendon will do against the Suns and Collingwood. They might not beat them both, but they will definitely win one of them, and that might be enough, based on the amount of percentage we have already lost on the past two games.

My opinion is only that, and I hope we are competitive, and really hope we win one, but the first quarter against Freo does not exactly inspire me with confidence for the rest of this year - although I loved the fightback.

It does seem though as if you agree with me that Melbourne will finish above us. Am I correct there?