Silver lining 2015

[The Redeemer]

No 1 is what it's about folks

I have missed you. Post more.

[bergholt]

I don't think pick one is any safer bet than pick 15 16 17 etc.

You know that's not true.

That would be 5, 6 or 7 with a hang over.

Still not true!

2000: Riewoldt vs McDougall, Dylan Smith or Angwin = Pick 1
2001: Hodge vs X Clarke, Sampi or Hale = Pick 1
2002: Goddard vs McVeigh, Salopek or Mackie = Pick 1
2003: Cooney vs McLean, Bradley or Tenace = Pick 1
2004: Deledio vs Franklin, Williams or Lewis = Franklin or Lewis
2005: Murphy vs Pendlebury, Dowler or Ryder = Pendlebury
2006: Gibbs vs Boak, Thorp or Selwood = Selwood
2007: Kreuzer vs Grant, Myers or Palmer = Pick 1 (though it's a toss-up)
2008: Watts vs Hurley, Yarran or Rich = not Watts
2009: Scully vs Cunnington, Rohan or Sheppard = Pick 1
2010: D Swallow vs Polec, Conca or Caddy = Pick 1 (though only just)
2011: Patton vs Buntine, Wingard or Haynes = Wingard
2012: Whitfield vs Stringer, Macrae or Wines = Wines (but you'd take any of them)
2013: Boyd vs Kolodjashnij, Scharenberg or Aish = too soon
2014: McCartin vs De Goey, Marchbank or Ahern = way too soon

7 out of 15 years, with the benefit of hindsight you'd still take pick 1 ahead of 5, 6 or 7. And every year except 2012 there's a dud taken with at least one of 5, 6 or 7; while there's probably only one dud taken at pick 1 (Watts).

No doubt there are still good players left at that point later in the top 10. But you'd always rather have pick 1 than any other pick.

[saintsRrising]

I don't think pick one is any safer bet than pick 15 16 17 etc.

You know that's not true.

That would be 5, 6 or 7 with a hang over.

Still not true!

2000: Riewoldt vs McDougall, Dylan Smith or Angwin = Pick 1
2001: Hodge vs X Clarke, Sampi or Hale = Pick 1
2002: Goddard vs McVeigh, Salopek or Mackie = Pick 1
2003: Cooney vs McLean, Bradley or Tenace = Pick 1
2004: Deledio vs Franklin, Williams or Lewis = Franklin or Lewis
2005: Murphy vs Pendlebury, Dowler or Ryder = Pendlebury
2006: Gibbs vs Boak, Thorp or Selwood = Selwood
2007: Kreuzer vs Grant, Myers or Palmer = Pick 1 (though it's a toss-up)
2008: Watts vs Hurley, Yarran or Rich = not Watts
2009: Scully vs Cunnington, Rohan or Sheppard = Pick 1
2010: D Swallow vs Polec, Conca or Caddy = Pick 1 (though only just)
2011: Patton vs Buntine, Wingard or Haynes = Wingard
2012: Whitfield vs Stringer, Macrae or Wines = Wines (but you'd take any of them)
2013: Boyd vs Kolodjashnij, Scharenberg or Aish = too soon
2014: McCartin vs De Goey, Marchbank or Ahern = way too soon

7 out of 15 years, with the benefit of hindsight you'd still take pick 1 ahead of 5, 6 or 7. And every year except 2012 there's a dud taken with at least one of 5, 6 or 7; while there's probably only one dud taken at pick 1 (Watts).

No doubt there are still good players left at that point later in the top 10. But you'd always rather have pick 1 than any other pick.

Indeed.

With drafting one can always make extrem points if you only look at one pick ata time. How well a club goes with its picks neeeds to be measured by looking at the aggregate of picks.

I do not think that anyone now denies that the Saints suffered from a "black hole" haf decade of absolutely inept drafting of picks. But if you only take say Sam Fisher then you can state that the Saints were fantastic at taking pick 55's!!

But the last few years the aggregate quality of our picks looking to be good. I think that Pelchen;s first year is a bit dubious, but he had not yet then rebuilt the recruiting department. Now it is all rebuilt it seems to be humming along quite nicely. So while yes one can perhaps make a hindsight call now that we should have taken Bontempelli over Billings, when you look at player like Dunstan, Lonie, Sinclair etc we seem to have also had some outperforms. The aggreagte of our picks is now looking very good.

I believe we nailed our picks this year, and if we do that again the next two years, with a couple of good FA acquistions, then we should emerge with a competitive team once again. Gun mids, with good footskills is now the number one need!!!!!!!!!!! We do need some GENUINE CREAM to add to what we have though.

We are certainly shaping up with the nucleues of a reasonable team for 2017 and beyond.

Newnes Delaney Roberton
Savage Goddard Webster
WANTED WANTED WANTED
Sinclair Bruce (Possibly Memberey/Lee/White)
Lonie McCartin WANTED



Ruck: Longer/Hickey (one will make it)
Dunstan
Steven

Now there are other likek Acres, McKenzie, Murdoch etc who could all make it..

[borderbarry]

We must consider the form of other teams here. Brisbane is probably as likely to finish on the bottom as we are. In any case, a finish in 14th position or worse will guarantee us a top 5 pick, which is what we are after. Then the problem again is, how do we get more decent picks?
(I personally think we will be bottom 2.)

[citywest]

We must consider the form of other teams here. Brisbane is probably as likely to finish on the bottom as we are. In any case, a finish in 14th position or worse will guarantee us a top 5 pick, which is what we are after. Then the problem again is, how do we get more decent picks? (I personally think we will be bottom 2.)

One answer to the above question could be Gilbert. If he gets over his injuries and plays at his best from round 10 onwards then he may get an offer from one of the top 4 teams. I know it's a big if and I'm probably dreaming but you never know. If it did eventuate and he left as a Free Agent I wonder what our compensation pick would be? Even if it was only band 2 it could still nett us pick 20ish.

[plugger66]

We must consider the form of other teams here. Brisbane is probably as likely to finish on the bottom as we are. In any case, a finish in 14th position or worse will guarantee us a top 5 pick, which is what we are after. Then the problem again is, how do we get more decent picks? (I personally think we will be bottom 2.)

One answer to the above question could be Gilbert. If he gets over his injuries and plays at his best from round 10 onwards then he may get an offer from one of the top 4 teams. I know it's a big if and I'm probably dreaming but you never know. If it did eventuate and he left as a Free Agent I wonder what our compensation pick would be? Even if it was only band 2 it could still nett us pick 20ish.

And you know he is a FA at the end of the year? Anyway he would never be a band 2 but dream on.

[samuraisaint]

Reiwoldt montagna back next week

We will beat Essendon.

Big fan of your optimism, but they won't get caught on the hop again. We have too many players down, and way too many injuries, or players returning from injury to make much of an impact, I feel.

With Essendon, as a St. Kilda supporter, you might beat 'em one year, but the next year - look out!

[samuraisaint]

What intel do you have that Roo and Joey will be back next week? Calf is a four week injury, at best. Did Joey train this past week? If not, I wouldn't think he'll be rushed back. This is what cruelled him in round 1.

[gringo]

I don't think pick one is any safer bet than pick 15 16 17 etc.

You know that's not true.

That would be 5, 6 or 7 with a hang over.

Still not true!

2000: Riewoldt vs McDougall, Dylan Smith or Angwin = Pick 1
2001: Hodge vs X Clarke, Sampi or Hale = Pick 1
2002: Goddard vs McVeigh, Salopek or Mackie = Pick 1
2003: Cooney vs McLean, Bradley or Tenace = Pick 1
2004: Deledio vs Franklin, Williams or Lewis = Franklin or Lewis
2005: Murphy vs Pendlebury, Dowler or Ryder = Pendlebury
2006: Gibbs vs Boak, Thorp or Selwood = Selwood
2007: Kreuzer vs Grant, Myers or Palmer = Pick 1 (though it's a toss-up)
2008: Watts vs Hurley, Yarran or Rich = not Watts
2009: Scully vs Cunnington, Rohan or Sheppard = Pick 1
2010: D Swallow vs Polec, Conca or Caddy = Pick 1 (though only just)
2011: Patton vs Buntine, Wingard or Haynes = Wingard
2012: Whitfield vs Stringer, Macrae or Wines = Wines (but you'd take any of them)
2013: Boyd vs Kolodjashnij, Scharenberg or Aish = too soon
2014: McCartin vs De Goey, Marchbank or Ahern = way too soon

7 out of 15 years, with the benefit of hindsight you'd still take pick 1 ahead of 5, 6 or 7. And every year except 2012 there's a dud taken with at least one of 5, 6 or 7; while there's probably only one dud taken at pick 1 (Watts).

No doubt there are still good players left at that point later in the top 10. But you'd always rather have pick 1 than any other pick.

Don't think there is anyone after 2003 who is better at pick one 2001 to 2004 were all best picked. Claiming Scully as a win for pick one is a bit rich, all three of the others are miles in front but none great.2007 was a s*** year all round by the look of it. The D swallow is the GCS one? H4e's a very average player so far despite the high hopes, I would put all three above him too.Mc Crae and Wines already guns as is Bontempelli from 2013. Boyd so far is only potential.

[Old Mate]

I don't think pick one is any safer bet than pick 15 16 17 etc.

You know that's not true.

That would be 5, 6 or 7 with a hang over.

Still not true!

2000: Riewoldt vs McDougall, Dylan Smith or Angwin = Pick 1
2001: Hodge vs X Clarke, Sampi or Hale = Pick 1
2002: Goddard vs McVeigh, Salopek or Mackie = Pick 1
2003: Cooney vs McLean, Bradley or Tenace = Pick 1
2004: Deledio vs Franklin, Williams or Lewis = Franklin or Lewis
2005: Murphy vs Pendlebury, Dowler or Ryder = Pendlebury
2006: Gibbs vs Boak, Thorp or Selwood = Selwood
2007: Kreuzer vs Grant, Myers or Palmer = Pick 1 (though it's a toss-up)
2008: Watts vs Hurley, Yarran or Rich = not Watts
2009: Scully vs Cunnington, Rohan or Sheppard = Pick 1
2010: D Swallow vs Polec, Conca or Caddy = Pick 1 (though only just)
2011: Patton vs Buntine, Wingard or Haynes = Wingard
2012: Whitfield vs Stringer, Macrae or Wines = Wines (but you'd take any of them)
2013: Boyd vs Kolodjashnij, Scharenberg or Aish = too soon
2014: McCartin vs De Goey, Marchbank or Ahern = way too soon

7 out of 15 years, with the benefit of hindsight you'd still take pick 1 ahead of 5, 6 or 7. And every year except 2012 there's a dud taken with at least one of 5, 6 or 7; while there's probably only one dud taken at pick 1 (Watts).

No doubt there are still good players left at that point later in the top 10. But you'd always rather have pick 1 than any other pick.

Pick 1 may not always get you the best player however with the exception of Watts it guarantees a quality player. The miss rate with 5, 6 and 7 is a substantially higher risk although the last few years all seem pretty solid with drafting becoming a more predictable art.

Pick 1 also offers better trading opportunities, the first pick in all rounds and the first pick in the pre season draft which comes with a few benefits.

[gringo]

Scully would not get a game at most clubs. Watts isn't up to it. Krueser is a bust. Not so certain.

[Old Mate]

Scully would not get a game at most clubs. Watts isn't up to it. Krueser is a bust. Not so certain.

I've always thought Scully and Watts not reaching a higher standard is more a product of poor Melbourne development. Saying that, both will play 200 afl games which is nothing to sneeze about. kreuzer crippled by unlucky injuries....

[Con Gorozidis]

I'm starting to think the Lions are heading for the Spoon and will almost certainly pick up Joshua Schache .
This means we get the pick of the mids (we must get it right) but we wont get a PP.

[Austinnn]

Loser talk.

[gringo]

Scully would not get a game at most clubs. Watts isn't up to it. Krueser is a bust. Not so certain.

I've always thought Scully and Watts not reaching a higher standard is more a product of poor Melbourne development. Saying that, both will play 200 afl games which is nothing to sneeze about. kreuzer crippled by unlucky injuries....

Watts won't play 200 IMO. He is not getting better at around 100 games. If he doesn't make it soon he will get Fioraed. Scully might not make it either. In 2 years time he won't get games at the Giants and then he needs someone else to like him. Can't see him getting there. He's like a less combative Geary. The Giants must wonder what they were thinking when they paid him that money.

[bergholt]

Scully would not get a game at most clubs. Watts isn't up to it. Krueser is a bust. Not so certain.

I've always thought Scully and Watts not reaching a higher standard is more a product of poor Melbourne development. Saying that, both will play 200 afl games which is nothing to sneeze about. kreuzer crippled by unlucky injuries....

Watts won't play 200 IMO. He is not getting better at around 100 games. If he doesn't make it soon he will get Fioraed. Scully might not make it either. In 2 years time he won't get games at the Giants and then he needs someone else to like him. Can't see him getting there. He's like a less combative Geary. The Giants must wonder what they were thinking when they paid him that money.

Someone else will take a chance on Watts in the next couple of years, I reckon. Play him as a mobile third tall/lead up target, in a forward line with some other weapons and there might still be hope. If he was at the Hawks he'd be kicking 50 a year, why wouldn't they give him a spin?

[samuraisaint]

Reiwoldt montagna back next week

We will beat Essendon.

Sadly not, as I said. Calves are very delicate and take a long time to get right. And Joey has a bad knee. Might be out for some time and it is possible that in a year like this where we are struggling anyway, that those two can do just as much good helping the younger players on the track and in the gym, keeping their spirits up with the benefit of their leadership and experience around the place, as they would on field playing with leg injuries.

On the positive side, McKenzie gets his first game this week.

[samuraisaint]

We must consider the form of other teams here. Brisbane is probably as likely to finish on the bottom as we are. In any case, a finish in 14th position or worse will guarantee us a top 5 pick, which is what we are after. Then the problem again is, how do we get more decent picks?
(I personally think we will be bottom 2.)

I think they will probably beat us in Brisbane though. Although wouldn't it be ironic if both our only wins were in QLD this year?Make for good trivia for future generations.

[samuraisaint]

I'm starting to think the Lions are heading for the Spoon and will almost certainly pick up Joshua Schache .
This means we get the pick of the mids (we must get it right) but we wont get a PP.

They only need one win to catch us. Wait and see how we go tomorrow before we start making plans for sides to finish below us. Although losing Rockliffe won't help their cause, I'll grant you that.

[gringo]

Scully would not get a game at most clubs. Watts isn't up to it. Krueser is a bust. Not so certain.

I've always thought Scully and Watts not reaching a higher standard is more a product of poor Melbourne development. Saying that, both will play 200 afl games which is nothing to sneeze about. kreuzer crippled by unlucky injuries....

Watts won't play 200 IMO. He is not getting better at around 100 games. If he doesn't make it soon he will get Fioraed. Scully might not make it either. In 2 years time he won't get games at the Giants and then he needs someone else to like him. Can't see him getting there. He's like a less combative Geary. The Giants must wonder what they were thinking when they paid him that money.

Someone else will take a chance on Watts in the next couple of years, I reckon. Play him as a mobile third tall/lead up target, in a forward line with some other weapons and there might still be hope. If he was at the Hawks he'd be kicking 50 a year, why wouldn't they give him a spin?

Soft and not up to it IMO. Just looks scared of the ball and the contest. If Cam Bruce couldn't get a game at the Hawks then Jack Watts couldn't be the boot studder. He wouldn't still be on the list if he'd been taken in the second round.

[andrewg]

I'm starting to think the Lions are heading for the Spoon and will almost certainly pick up Joshua Schache .
This means we get the pick of the mids (we must get it right) but we wont get a PP.

Spot on

[samuraisaint]

Carlton could still get the spoon too. The fact we have to play Brisbane at the Gabba means that they will be favourites for that one.
If our recent spate of injuries continues we will struggle to win more than 2 games this year. Great effort yesterday, but where was that against Carlton in Wellington?
In the second half of the season younger players tire and struggle to play the season out. Both Carlton and Brisbane have older, more battle hardened players than we do.

[samuraisaint]

We must consider the form of other teams here. Brisbane is probably as likely to finish on the bottom as we are. In any case, a finish in 14th position or worse will guarantee us a top 5 pick, which is what we are after. Then the problem again is, how do we get more decent picks? (I personally think we will be bottom 2.)

One answer to the above question could be Gilbert. If he gets over his injuries and plays at his best from round 10 onwards then he may get an offer from one of the top 4 teams. I know it's a big if and I'm probably dreaming but you never know. If it did eventuate and he left as a Free Agent I wonder what our compensation pick would be? Even if it was only band 2 it could still nett us pick 20ish.

Why would anyone trade their second draft pick for a guy who may not play this year, and has hardly played at all for two? And no disrespect intended to Gilbo, but his kicking skills would not be worth a second round draft pick.

[saynta]

Reiwoldt montagna back next week

We will beat Essendon.

No we wont. Sadly they will smash us. As long as we play the same positive footy as the first half yesterday I will happy.

[FQF]

We must consider the form of other teams here. Brisbane is probably as likely to finish on the bottom as we are. In any case, a finish in 14th position or worse will guarantee us a top 5 pick, which is what we are after. Then the problem again is, how do we get more decent picks? (I personally think we will be bottom 2.)

One answer to the above question could be Gilbert. If he gets over his injuries and plays at his best from round 10 onwards then he may get an offer from one of the top 4 teams. I know it's a big if and I'm probably dreaming but you never know. If it did eventuate and he left as a Free Agent I wonder what our compensation pick would be? Even if it was only band 2 it could still nett us pick 20ish.

Why would anyone trade their second draft pick for a guy who may not play this year, and has hardly played at all for two? And no disrespect intended to Gilbo, but his kicking skills would not be worth a second round draft pick.

I am no fan of citywest's trading tactics but to be fair, he/she did say that if he gets back to his best form by round 10 and plays the rest of the year he might attract an offer. I tend to agree. If he gets over his injuries and plays as well as he is capable of, he is a very good player and would offer many teams a great intercept marking, line breaking, versatile backman.

If we were going to trade out a senior player, he would probably be the most likely to go.