Why McCartin was a logical choice

[cwrcyn]

Had a look though the national draft from 2000 to 2010. In that period, looking at draft choices after pick 10, I found 9 key forwards who made it (excluding father/son picks and NSW scholarships players, and rookie promotions). They were....

2000: Drew Petrie
2002: Jay Schulze
2006: Jack Riewoldt, Chris Dawes, Kurt Tippett, Justin Westoff
2009: Jack Gunstan
2010: Tom Lynch, Jack Darling


The Jury is still out on a few, such as Aaron Black and John Butcher


In the same period, I found 84 midfielders/flankers who made it after pick 10. Inside the top 10, 49 midfielders/flankers made the grade.

The scary think is that in the entire draft outside of father/son selections, NSW scholarships selections and rookie promotions, there were only 16 key forwards who made the grade (forget swingmen like Michael Hurley), and of those selected in the top 10, most were in the top 5.


25 key defenders made it from picks outside the top 10, with 16 of those coming from selections under pick 30.

There wer 4 'busts' inside the top 5 selections with key forwards. They were Luke Livingston, Scott Gumbleton, Jarrad Grant, and Jack Watts


If you pick a key forward inside the top 10, you have about 60% chance of scoring a genuine, quality key forward. The success rate for midfielders selected inside the top 10 is closer to 80%

What's obvious is that quality key forwards are extremely rare

[cwrcyn]

What's interesting is that between 2000 and 2006, 65 rookie selections went on the play more than 100 games, with many playing over 200.

[Munga]

great stuff. I love stats

[Mr Magic]

We've never 'stuffed up' a #1 draft pick so far.

[Con Gorozidis]

Great stats. But we are certain to get a top 3 pick next year. Certainly a top 10.

I am confident we have done ok but its no sure thing. We took a risk. A calculated one. But a risk no doubt. Lets not pretend its a certainty.

[dragit]

We took a risk. A calculated one. But a risk no doubt. Lets not pretend its a certainty.

This is it for me… not sure if it's logical,most people would suggest that you always take the best player with pick # 1.

I think inside mids have an even higher percentage of working out, something like 90%. Plenty of other disappointing talls taken high in the draft… including most of the ruckmen.

If McCartin isn't a gun & Petracca is, we will rue this decision for a very long time.

He looks pretty likely though, so fingers crossed it was a great call.

[cwrcyn]

I agree it's no certainty

[stinger]

We've never 'stuffed up' a #1 draft pick so far.

yes we have.....twice......the first time was when we were still in the vfl..can't remember the year,,,,.then in 88..we traded the no 1 pick to hawthorn ....for harding ..who left after 91...russo and handley...a dud..

[Batnoe]

We've stuffed up a lot, but in modern in footy out pick 1's have been ok.

For the point of trying to cause an argument or how old you are, why do you really need to comment on something so irrelevant Stinger?

Leave everyone make their post without jamming your opinion down their throat

[stinger]

We've stuffed up a lot, but in modern in footy out pick 1's have been ok.

For the point of trying to cause an argument or how old you are, why do you really need to comment on something so irrelevant Stinger?

Leave everyone make their post without jamming your opinion down their throat

how about you minding your own business

[1965 Saint]

We've never 'stuffed up' a #1 draft pick so far.

Didn't we take Jodi Arnol at pick 1???

[Con Gorozidis]

We've never 'stuffed up' a #1 draft pick so far.

Didn't we take Jodi Arnol at pick 1???

He was pick 3 after Anthony Banik and Matthew Croft in 1989 after we finished a respectable 3rd bottom.
Steve Sims in 86 at pick 2 wasnt that flash for us.

But our only ever pick 1s are BJ and Roo.

Interestingly we have never had a pick 4. (Farren Ray was a pick 4 for the Bulldogs).

Pick 5 Michael Quirk (87) and Pick 6 Daniel Healy (95) were another two we didnt get much out of. Dare I say anything. Although in 95 we did land big bad bustling Barry Hall with pick 19. All clubs had plenty of misses back then.

But we have never stuffed up a pick 1 yet. We are 2 from 2. Not a great sample size

[Dave McNamara]

Didn't we take Jodi Arnol at pick 1???

He was pick 3 after Anthony Banik and Matthew Croft in 1989...

So at least we nailed picking the best of the 'top 3' that year.

[1965 Saint]

Didn't we take Jodi Arnol at pick 1???

He was pick 3 after Anthony Banik and Matthew Croft in 1989...

So at least we nailed picking the best of the 'top 3' that year.

Bwahaha

[cwrcyn]

I'd like to think our recruiting has become a little more scientific since the days of Stan Alves and Ken Sheldon, who both over-rode our recruiters to choose such gems and Daniel Healy, Michael Frost, and Ben Walton, the latter two meaning we missed out on John Beverage's preferred choices of Fraser Gehrig and Nick Stevens, who both played 200 games. Frost and Walton played about 30 between them. When Michael Frost was selected at pick one, the drafting room erupted in raucous laughter.

I think Elshaug ha a pretty good handle on things, and since 2011 when he officially took over recruiting, our selections have been solid.

[magnifisaint]

I really hope this one doesn't bite us on the arse.

[Dr Spaceman]

I really hope this one doesn't bite us on the arse.

I think his diabetes means he needs to be careful about what he puts in his mouth, so I doubt this will happen.

[sainters85]

not really sure on Mc Cartin.. would have rather picked Petracca who I reckon will be a star.. hopefully Mc Cartin can become one as well

[magnifisaint]

I really hope this one doesn't bite us on the arse.

I think his diabetes means he needs to be careful about what he puts in his mouth, so I doubt this will happen.

It means others

[johng]

We took McCartin because we got scared off by seeing what the bulldogs had to pay for a key forward.
There wil be another petracca next year and the year after that and after that.

[Freebird]

PETRACCA is said to be one in a generation player, I hope they were not scared off by Boyd's cost.

[magnifisaint]

f****** Bullfrogs. Stupid twats won't be able to keep their team together. Dumb arses!

[PJ]

Have no idea why people are getting paranoid about the selection of McCartin over Petracca. All you have to go on is verbal hype. This recruiter said this, another reporter said that - talk about jumping at shadows.

Why don't you wait until they are at least a couple of years into their careers FFS.

[Freebird]

I agree PJ but we really need an A grade goalkicking midfielder more than anything.....

[Con Gorozidis]

We took McCartin because we got scared off by seeing what the bulldogs had to pay for a key forward.
There wil be another petracca next year and the year after that and after that.

Silly if true. Schulz and Josh Kennedy kicked 127 goals between them last year. Doubt either is on a huge wage.

Dogs took a huge punt on Boyd. But im not convinced one deal means that is a benchmark for everyone for evermore. Look at what GWS paid for Scully.