Refection on the draft last night

[skeptic]

First of all, I was clearly in Camp Petracca, who in my eyes was Patrick Dangerfield in waiting... my impression is that he was very clearly touted as the clear number #1 pick over the last three months. Some argue that this wasn't the case, Jay Clark from the Herald Sun seems to be of the belief that 16 Clubs had Petracca first, so it... I dunno, seems arguments can be made to both views.

If there was a leak from the club 2 days ago... I would form the opinion that it was intentional... aimed at the more close minded arm-chair experts like myself to both soften the blow but also make us do some research. Certainly I hadn't bothered with Paddy's bios as much as CP's prior to then.

The big arguments come out:
McCartin is the best forward and a quality kid
Petracca failed his psych test... too arrogant and cocky
There's a dearth of talls in coming drafts and free agency
There's a plethora of mids coming available
The saints are set to make a play for Treloar

All kind of reassuring to a degree

My favourite though - both Paddy and CP are playing to a similar standard in their respective positions but CP has been training closer to an elite standard... hence the thinking seems to be that he's further ahead in development and might not have the as high a ceiling for improvement.
Who knows, at the end of the day the future tells us all.

Pick One
Patrick McCartin
A comparison to Nick Riewoldt is inevitable. He's a one grab forward, strong hands on the lead, good kick at goal. Very smart, knows how/where to lead. Is a reasonable size, not a monster... not super quick off the mark but seems almost a certainty if he gets into the right position. Dare I say that Riewoldt seems to be exactly who he should model his game on.
Think he's going to need to work on his endurance and try to exploit his athleticism as well as avoid the trap of being too muscle bound. I found it quite funny... in a lot of ways he's actually the exact opposite of a Rhys Stanley who relied more on pace and height but struggled to read the play.

Did we make the right choice, who knows?
I will say this... certainly post interviews - I like the way Paddy came across more than the other guy. Look at the headline in the Sun today "Dees not scared off by 'bubbly' Petracca". Not a good beginning if he can't show some humility of the grand stage but who knows. Early points but we'll see.

The next few picks went as expected Marchbank surprised me, and I thought GC would have been rapt with Peter Wright at 8 who was touted top 4 several months back.

Geelong at 10 surprised me with Cockatoo... we all knew I was dreaming hoping he would hold out til 21 but still think they went early. Reading more about him... he hasn't played a lot of football over the year... makes me wonder... they took Varcoe at 15, that Djerrka guy at the Bulldogs, Motlop in the 30s... I wonder if they have a tendency to over-value/rate the Indigenous players.
That said, Motlop was an absolute steal for them back in 08. Again who knows? Still don't know if Nakia should have been top 10.

After that it was about who would slide to us at 21. As predicted Weller went well before at 13, Lever and Gartlett followed respectively... then Durdin at 16 went later than I thought... miserable little patch of tie.

When Carlton took Boekhorst at 19 - the heavens opened as it became clear that there would be at least one big slider to us at 21. Laverde fell to Essendon at 20 (steal) and I held my breath... would we take him.

Hugh Goddard at 21 was IMO a huge steal for us
Start of the year, this guy was top 4. Watching his highlights 2 names immediately come to mind. My first thought is that he could be Sam Fisher. A tall that can give us run. but you watch his highlights, he has a real knack for going back with the flight of the ball and taking contested marks. He's clearly more comfortable going to the ball rather than leading to it.
Also he seems much better in the contest than Sam. I think Dustin Fletcher could be a good example of how this kid should model himself.

Daniel McKenzie at 22 is harder for me to judge... certainly of all picks, he's the one with the least fanfare.
Point one is he's a small slider... expectation was he would mid to late teens
Other than that, he seems to be a big-bodied solid midfielder that seems to be good at everything but not great at nothing. Others on the forum suggest he a mix of Farren Ray and Ryan Griffen. Wins ball, accurate disposal, good game sense... has a leap. He looks good.

At this point I'm waiting for Caleb Daniel but alas he slides through to the doggies at 46

41. Jack Lonie (As I sad in another thread...)
Having a look at his highlights, whilst comparisons to Milne are inevitable because of his smarts, his disposal seems a lot better... Also seems more of a runner to.
I'd say he's maybe more a Schneider than Milne. The hope maybe is that he can push into the midfield for bursts, break lines and deliver a few lace out. The kid is fast, reads the play well and smart.
I was initially underwhelmed but have to say that I'm liking this draft a lot

The only other surprise is that that Alex Neal-Bullen who many had coming to us at 21, went to Melbourne 40.

Feel like this is a sliding doors moment between us and Melbourne... they walk away with the players we were expected tp get... for better or worse?

[gringo]

I listened to the coach of vic country before the draft and he selected Lonie as a player who could make it as a special player from outside the obvious ones. He said he tested slow at the combine but plays quick and uses his smarts. He made the milne comparison too. I'm much more comfortable with picking Paddy now the dust has settled. He sounds like a good kid with talent.

[spert]

Saw some video highlights of Lonie and to be honest, this guy is seriously good..incredible intensity in contests, and has goal sense. Will Saad get a look in?

[saintsRrising]

McCartin/ Petracca

I would have gone for Petracca. However virtually everyone had them line ball. Putting my positional biases aside it probably matters little which of the two we took, though McCartin will most likely take longer to come on at AFL level than Petracca.

Big forwards generate more membership tickets than good mids, and so Paddy may assist in turning our waining membership around.

He is a very different big forward in style, and more the genuine key forward, to White and Lee, who are more big flankers, and so is a good blend with what we have. Bruce showed late last year that he is handy up front, and is a good mark of the ball.

Goddard

As I posted in another thread I started, thankfully the Blues jumped at shadows and took Boekhorst first, and with most other clubs preferring the mids on offer. Gaining Goddard makes this draft an out-perform for me (relative to the picks we had). Great pick up, and we need a genuine tall back.

McKenzie

About fair value. Some had him going later, some earlier. However I certainly do not rate him better than the earlier mids except Boekhorst.

Lonie

Very happy with him as a pick 41. Is a smart footballer, and for someone his size that is vital. He is bottom age and so may well prove to be an excellent value pick in the longer term.

Caleb? No thanks. For mine is too small, and would have been a high risk.


Overall:

Gaining a true FF and CHB has added greatly to our next gen team going forward. Next will hurt, but the long term prognosis is sound. What we mainly lack now is several more gun mids.

We also gained Membrey and he may well be that "third forward" that we have lacked since Hamill.

Hopefully at least one of Hickey or Longer will take a big development step this year. Pierce may well be better than both, but is young.

[bigred]

We got a Johnathan Brown and a Dustan Fletcher in the one draft.

Cannot discount the value of the two KEY position players.

I honestly thought that Goddard would have been gone in the first dozen.

The more I look at it...on those two this draft is a rather large win.

I really wanted Daniel for pick 41 or to be a rookie. He will be a cult hero at the dogs. Will be great to watch.

[Zed]

We got a Johnathan Brown and a Dustan Fletcher in the one draft.

Just got to love the optimism at this time of year !

[maverick]

If CP and PM are line ball, we are better off getting talls before the mids, as the talls will take longer.
There are so many mids to grab through FA or trade, just look at Hawthorn with O'Rourke, in my mind we went the right way.

Hope Goddard turns out he is a good size, and was well talked up at the start of the year….

[Middo]

Goddard plays like Harry Taylor in my opinion the way he floats across in the defensive 50 to mark and also the way he kicks...

[TwoTowers2015]

I spoke to the AFL team at Champion Data this morning and they felt we had nailed the draft for the second year in a row.

Interestingly Jack Lonie at 41 was considered a steal and always destined to go to us if still around at that pick. I hadn't realised that we had him at pick 17 in the Champion Data top 30 released a week before the draft. The rankings were based on statistical output and only covered guys they had seen a lot of at the Under 18 Champs. They put Lonie ahead of players such as Cockatoo, Marchbank, Duggan, Lamb, Blakely, Wigg, Miller.

I also confirmed that there was no reason that Lonie could not spend bouts in the midfield in a few years like other smalls such as the 175cm Matthew Stokes, 177cm Michael Walters, 174cm Jarrod Blair, 177cm Josh Thomas.

McCartin was number 2 in the top 30 and Goddard number 10 while McKenzie missed the cut.

17. JACK LONIE (174cm goalsneak)

Lonie’s strength is his creativity near goals. Rated above average for kicks going inside 50, goals and score involvements. Ranked fourth for score assists.

WE SAY: Size will count against him, but the cousin of Nathan and Ryan Lonie loves the big stage. He tackles, kicks goals, forces mistakes and has a fiery streak.

[skeptic]

I spoke to the AFL team at Champion Data this morning and they felt we had nailed the draft for the second year in a row.

Interestingly Jack Lonie at 41 was considered a steal and always destined to go to us if still around at that pick. I hadn't realised that we had him at pick 17 in the Champion Data top 30 released a week before the draft. The rankings were based on statistical output and only covered guys they had seen a lot of at the Under 18 Champs. They put Lonie ahead of players such as Cockatoo, Marchbank, Duggan, Lamb, Blakely, Wigg, Miller.

I also confirmed that there was no reason that Lonie could not spend bouts in the midfield in a few years like other smalls such as the 175cm Matthew Stokes, 177cm Michael Walters, 174cm Jarrod Blair, 177cm Josh Thomas.

McCartin was number 2 in the top 30 and Goddard number 10 while McKenzie missed the cut.

17. JACK LONIE (174cm goalsneak)

Lonie’s strength is his creativity near goals. Rated above average for kicks going inside 50, goals and score involvements. Ranked fourth for score assists.

WE SAY: Size will count against him, but the cousin of Nathan and Ryan Lonie loves the big stage. He tackles, kicks goals, forces mistakes and has a fiery streak.

Gotta say i really warmed up to him

He seems to be one of these guys that just knows how to play the game... Like Milne who when looking at attributes, you could be forgiven for thinking he has no clear weapon... He just knew how to play

[Griggsy]

Had to look up some hightlights just now. 1st I have seen of him and wow the Milne comparison is spot on. Can be seen in the way he moves about around the ball and with the ball in hand. REally wish Milne could of been a mentor to this kid, maybe they could do a few sessions.

[Old Mate]

Had to look up some hightlights just now. 1st I have seen of him and wow the Milne comparison is spot on. Can be seen in the way he moves about around the ball and with the ball in hand. REally wish Milne could of been a mentor to this kid, maybe they could do a few sessions.

Milne has already been mentoring Lonie at the Stingrays which was pre-draft.

[stinger]

Had to look up some hightlights just now. 1st I have seen of him and wow the Milne comparison is spot on. Can be seen in the way he moves about around the ball and with the ball in hand. REally wish Milne could of been a mentor to this kid, maybe they could do a few sessions.

They already have.....

[saintsRrising]

Some things can be hard to build at a club..

So to have two guys, in such key positions and with so much talent, who are so stoked to be playing together: http://www.saints.com.au/video/2014-11- ... -celebrate cannot be but very good for the Saints.

Add in Lonie as well as a Vic Country team mate and that is a lot of a esprit de corps that we have injected into our list.


I am really excited now that over the last several years that we have built the bulk of an exciting new Saints Team to take us forward, with just a few relatively older players (which you need for team balance):

Wright Delany Roberton
Webster Goddard Savage
Dunstan Armitage McKenzie
Lee/Bruce White Membrey
Billings McCartin Lonie

Hickey/ Longer
Acres
Steven

Bruce/Lee Templeton Ross Weller

And that allows for some to not make it such as Saunders, Markworth etc...who may still. Plus Pierce shows future promise as a ruck/forward.


A couple more truly gun mids, and than that team above starts to look very good.

[saintsRrising]

Best available AND Most required

With the exception of say one gun mid this years acquisitions have really nailed areas that the club was deficient in, while at the same time when the players were taken were genuine "best available" picks with the possible line-ball decision on Petracca/McCartin.

McCartin: while we ave several young tall forwards, none are genuine gun that McCartin should be
Goddard: Our defence was sadly lackinga second tall defender to pair up with Delany, and Goddard is more of an offensive weapon than the very negating Delany. A great duo for our key defenders.
Lonie: Smart small forward that should be capable of rotating through the midfield in time.
Membrey: Potential to be a genuine medium tall forward (often called the "third tall") that we have lacked since Hamill.

This draft has worked out exceptionally well in addressing not just our list talent pool, but our team balance. Second year in a row that we have really nailed the draft.

[Dis Believer]

Between Lonie, Templeton, Billings & Minchington, we seem to have very quickly built a group of kids that should be able to rotate through the middle and rest up forward as a small forward that has genuine ability to threaten on the scoreboard.

That to me has been where we lacked in our midfield rotations previously. None of our mids have ever really looked a scoreboard threat and no small forward ever really could go through the middle for a stint.

[LTN16]

Goddard plays like Harry Taylor in my opinion the way he floats across in the defensive 50 to mark and also the way he kicks...

That's a good comparison middo I'd be happy if he turns out half as good but definitely plays the same way.

[Megamaguire]

Skeptic said refering 2 Goddard.
"I think Dustin Fletcher could be a good example of how this kid should model himself."
Interesting comment for myself because I was thinking before the draft just maybe the footy gods will favour the Saints and smack the bombres on their wrists by manipulating them to let the best player available @ #20 slip through to us
@ 21.
Yes they might have a good pick @ #20 but we might have the better one @ 21 who (as time goes on) becomes favourably compared to their Dustin Fletcher but with the surname Goddard and starring @ St Kilda.

With the endless speculation of draft period my mind did plenty of wandering.

Great to have Hugh on board.

GO SAINTS!

[Hurricane]

Initially I thought we must pick Petrecca. Not picking Judd probably cost us at least 1 flag and I was not keen to miss out on that kind of player again. However looking at the fact the Dogs threw the kitchen sink at a totally unproven kid coupled with the amount of mids coming available in the next few seasons and the talented kids we have McCartin was absolutely the right choice. His highlights are more than enough to excite and the fact he will sit under the learning tree with Roo for at least the next 2 seasons makes me think that even though he is yet to lace up a pair of boots for St Kilda he will be a gun.

Dispite the huge hole we are in and the fact that we are very very early in a rebuild I am confidant that the draft fails are behind us and the kids we have now will be part of our rise back up the ladder

BANG BANG

[Con Gorozidis]

Did anyone read the article in yesterdays age?

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/late-picks ... 1v9ea.html

Statistical analysis showed a correlation between second round picks and success.

McCartin might be Tony Lockett but if the likes of Ross White Goddard McKenzie and Markworth dont come good we wont be any good. Hickey also in that group.

The good news is Newnes and Wright look like good 2nd round picks so far.

Also Steven and Webster are good third rounders.

But we need improvement from some of White Ross Markworth Hickey this year or we will be weighted to the bottom for a while yet.

The jury is well and truly out on Ross White and Markworth. We really need two of these three to be good to very good players.

[R. Harvey 3 votes!]

Some things can be hard to build at a club..

So have two guys, in such key positions and with so much talent, who are so stoked to be playing together: http://www.saints.com.au/video/2014-11- ... -celebrate cannot be but very good for the Saints.

Add in Lonie as well as a Vic Country team mate and that is a lot of a esprit de corps that we have injected into our list.


I am really excited now that over the last several years that we have built the bulk of an exciting new Saints Team to take us forward, with just a few relatively older players (which you need for team balance):

Wright Delany Roberton
Webster Goddard Savage
Dunstan Armitage McKenzie
Lee/Bruce White Membrey
Billings McCartin Lonie

Hickey/ Longer
Acres
Steven

Bruce/Lee Templeton Ross Weller

And that allows for some to not make it such as Saunders, Markworth etc...who may still. Plus Pierce shows future promise as a ruck/forward.


A couple more truly gun mids, and than that team above starts to look very good.

We also haven't used free agency yet so you can maybe add a Treloar or someone like that to that team aswell in a year or two

[plugger66]

Some things can be hard to build at a club..

So have two guys, in such key positions and with so much talent, who are so stoked to be playing together: http://www.saints.com.au/video/2014-11- ... -celebrate cannot be but very good for the Saints.

Add in Lonie as well as a Vic Country team mate and that is a lot of a esprit de corps that we have injected into our list.


I am really excited now that over the last several years that we have built the bulk of an exciting new Saints Team to take us forward, with just a few relatively older players (which you need for team balance):

Wright Delany Roberton
Webster Goddard Savage
Dunstan Armitage McKenzie
Lee/Bruce White Membrey
Billings McCartin Lonie

Hickey/ Longer
Acres
Steven

Bruce/Lee Templeton Ross Weller

And that allows for some to not make it such as Saunders, Markworth etc...who may still. Plus Pierce shows future promise as a ruck/forward.


A couple more truly gun mids, and than that team above starts to look very good.

We also haven't used free agency yet so you can maybe add a Treloar or someone like that to that team aswell in a year or two

Hw wont be a FA for about 4 years.

[Bunk_Moreland]

P66 is correct, if we want Treloar we either get him as a DFA (maybe if he doesn't resign with GWS and GWS then delist him) PSD (unlikely as this means we have either completely broken down in trade talks with GWS or GWS refuses to trade him) or we trade for him.

Trading for him has some scenarios ahead of us.

However we have to assume

1) we come last next year. Not out of the question and probable even. so that gives us #1 pick
2) possibly Jack Steven doesn't sign. As a RFA we may get the next pick after our first. So we have #1 and #2

We can then trade with GWS for Treloar, or we can keep #1 and #2 for maybe Parish and Mathesion.

Treloar or Shiel are two possibilities but much water under the bridge etc.

[footynut]

P66 is correct, if we want Treloar we either get him as a DFA (maybe if he doesn't resign with GWS and GWS then delist him) PSD (unlikely as this means we have either completely broken down in trade talks with GWS or GWS refuses to trade him) or we trade for him.

Trading for him has some scenarios ahead of us.

However we have to assume

1) we come last next year. Not out of the question and probable even. so that gives us #1 pick
2) possibly Jack Steven doesn't sign. As a RFA we may get the next pick after our first. So we have #1 and #2

We can then trade with GWS for Treloar, or we can keep #1 and #2 for maybe Parish and Mathesion.

Treloar or Shiel are two possibilities but much water under the bridge etc.

Imagine picks 1 & 2 + Treloar or Shiel in PSD for the loss of Steven, I think we'd be the winner out of that one.

[damienc]

Really enjoying all of the opinions expressed on this thread. Very insightful. Thanks for sharing.