2014 List Management - Draft & Trade Discussion

[gringo]

We can all point to the gems picked in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds of the draft but if you go back and have a look at who was drafted around them you realise how many mid and late picks flop. I am sure we have worked out from the historical draft record what the statistical probability is of finding a 100+ game player at each point in the draft and the probability is significantly higher for picks under 20. From where we were a couple of years ago we basically needed to replace almost the entire team over a 4 or 5 year period. If we just took our picks where they fell and held on to all our senior players till they retired we were going to be at the bottom a very long time. We are only early to mid way through the strategy, really can't afford to be filling the list with speculative mid to late draft picks then spending the next 3 years working out if they are going to be good enough to play AFL. Focus needs to be on the top end of the draft.

Some think guys like Ahern and Weller aren't that different to the top 4 in quality. The top 4 might be speculative even. Petracca might not be as good against bigger bodies, Mc cartin might not be able to reach the heights because of poor kicking and diabetes. Wrights back might be no good, Brayshaw....well his uncle's toolishness might be enough to write off him. With 3 and 7 we still get a very good kid including possibly the one we really want and then a guy like Lauchie Weller who could end up being the best of the lot. We could use a pick in the 20s on a guy like Rhys Mc Kenzie who could be a superstar. I'm not worried either way as both have their merits.

[howlinwolf]

I don't think Melbourne will get pick 3 for Frawley. Not when you look at the 450k deal he has with Hawthorn.
Other clubs are livid at the idea and I doubt the AFL will go that high for them.
If that is the case what you reckon about 3+6 for 1 plugger ?

[avid]

What about this..
O'Rouke to Hawthorn for their pick 19 to GWS
Jacksch + 19 to Carlton for their pick 6
GWS pick 3 + 6 for our pick 1

We'd miss on Petracca but could get McCartin/Wright and Brayshaw.

I really want Petracca but there has to be a price somewhere that we'd trade 1.
Think we're just fishing to see if that deal is there.
It'll take a deal as good as 3+6 for us to deal 1 I feel.

That becomes 4 and 7. Not sure Carlton would do that either.

I'd do it.

Pick 1 / Petracca is extremely attractive.
But TWO of the top 7 is even more so.

[Dave McNamara]

Again Dave saying it all the time doesn't make it true but it does show where you live. How about some facts Dave. When was the last star player to go in the AFL when they were proven stars?

Here's some for you Pluggs. Due to differing opinions on players, I'm happy to leave it to your judgement as to how many of these blokes are/were 'proven stars'.

1990 – David Cloke (Richmond)
1991 – Michael McLean (Brisbane Bears)
1993 – Richard Osborne (Sydney)
1994 – Dermott Brereton (Sydney)
1995 – Paul Roos (Sydney)
2001 – Brett Voss (St Kilda)
2003 – Stephen Powell (St Kilda)
2004 – Jade Rawlings (Western Bulldogs) - played one very good year, yet others seem to rate him.
2009 – Liam Jurrah (Melbourne)
2013 – Jed Lamb (Greater Western Sydney)

Ben Graham – #40 1992 Preseason Draft
Justin Peckett – #49 1992 Preseason Draft
Darryl Wakelin – #11 1993 Pre-Season Draft
Craig McRae – #22 1993 Pre-Season Draft
Paul Roos – #1 1995 pre-season draft
Peter Vardy – #7 1995 Pre-Season Draft
Tyson Edwards – #21 1995 Pre-Season Draft
Peter Bell – #15 1996 Pre-Season Draft
Simon Goodwin – #18 1996 Pre-Season Draft
Shane Woewodin – #18 1997 Pre-Season Draft (See Jade the spade Rawlings).
Joel Smith - #2 1998 Pre-Season Draft (Judas! )
Craig Bolton – #3 2003 pre-season draft
Nick Stevens – #2 2004 pre-season draft
Eddie Betts – #3 2005 pre-season draft (Personally, I see him as a downhill skier, but some do rate Betty.)
Scott Camporeale – #4 2006 pre-season draft
Mal Michael – #2 2007 pre-season draft
Jerremy Cameron – 2015 pre-season draft

[plugger66]

Again Dave saying it all the time doesn't make it true but it does show where you live. How about some facts Dave. When was the last star player to go in the AFL when they were proven stars?

Here's some for you Pluggs. Due to differing opinions on players, I'm happy to leave it to your judgement as to how many of these blokes are/were 'proven stars'.

1990 – David Cloke (Richmond)
1991 – Michael McLean (Brisbane Bears)
1993 – Richard Osborne (Sydney)
1994 – Dermott Brereton (Sydney)
1995 – Paul Roos (Sydney)
2001 – Brett Voss (St Kilda)
2003 – Stephen Powell (St Kilda)
2004 – Jade Rawlings (Western Bulldogs) - played one very good year, yet others seem to rate him.
2009 – Liam Jurrah (Melbourne)
2013 – Jed Lamb (Greater Western Sydney)

Ben Graham – #40 1992 Preseason Draft
Justin Peckett – #49 1992 Preseason Draft
Darryl Wakelin – #11 1993 Pre-Season Draft
Craig McRae – #22 1993 Pre-Season Draft
Paul Roos – #1 1995 pre-season draft
Peter Vardy – #7 1995 Pre-Season Draft
Tyson Edwards – #21 1995 Pre-Season Draft
Peter Bell – #15 1996 Pre-Season Draft
Simon Goodwin – #18 1996 Pre-Season Draft
Shane Woewodin – #18 1997 Pre-Season Draft (See Jade the spade Rawlings).
Joel Smith - #2 1998 Pre-Season Draft (Judas! )
Craig Bolton – #3 2003 pre-season draft
Nick Stevens – #2 2004 pre-season draft
Eddie Betts – #3 2005 pre-season draft (Personally, I see him as a downhill skier, but some do rate Betty.)
Scott Camporeale – #4 2006 pre-season draft
Mal Michael – #2 2007 pre-season draft
Jerremy Cameron – 2015 pre-season draft

So Paul Roos and Nick Stevens is the answer. None since 2004. Yep its very likely then. Heard a manager on radio to day and apart from clubs not wanting to do the dirty on other clubs he said players also now want reasonable compensation to their previous side.

[Old Mate]

Bump.

Interesting that on the first page Goddard and McCartin were both priorities but both considered top 1-5 picks. We got both!

[howlinwolf]

Very good point old mate.
The club has ended up with a great result. All under immense pressure.

[dragit]

There's some gold in this thread, good bump OldMate.

Sorry to pluck you out pluggs as everyone said something funny in here, but this one was a beauty!

Stanley isnt getting us a first rounder even if we traded picks. he is a delistment or a keeper IMO.

[Old Mate]

BAM!

Stanley is the one I see being traded......

[Old Mate]

Just to note I think Stanley has balls compared to us average blokes. Anyone who makes AFL has balls comparing to the average normal world. I am talking about the elite world of AFL and professional sport. In THAT world Stanley along with others like Siposs, Lee, White DONT have balls. We want flags? We need balls. This is what hawks and Cats understand. We are still yet to understand this. Hopefully Richo does and will change that. The drafting last year suggests this.

Maybe they should list aggot circumference in the draft profiles...

Pace is no good if you can't play or kick... Geelong have had a few of those over the years... Tenace & Spriggs.

[Old Mate]

I don't think the problem with Stanley is his effort. It's his application and natural footy ability that's holding him back.

Richo said this week that Stanley is working incredibly hard, and doing everything possible to improve his form. Stanley absolutely knows that he is expendable, and that it is not beyond the realm of possibility that he could be delisted in the near future if he continues to offer nothing. When your job, livelihood and pride are on the line, you can be sure that he is trying his best.

Stanley is not a footballer. He doesn't think like a footballer or perform like a footballer. His leading patterns, work off the ball, under the ball is poor. He's an athlete and unfortunately will never be the player we've all hoped for. Best case scenario, he's turned into a permanent ruckman that doesn't need a lot of footy nous and just needs to be able to jump high. A forward he is not. Trade bait.

Based on what you said then how is he trade bait. What you said is right IMO but because of that the choices are simple. He stays or is delisted. And if he stays he has to be a forward for us. the last thing we need is another ruckman. I think we have one to many when Hickey returns as neither of them look like they can mark the bloody ball well enough to be a forward ruckman. Still disagree on patton but its going to be a long wait for one of us to be proven right.

Opinions differ. My opinion of Stanley being trade bait does not mean that's the industries opinion. There will be interest for a 24 year old and athletic tall player. How much interest and what return would we get? Well, if Richmond gave up pick 28 for Hampson you never know. Personally as a suitor club I wouldn't invest in Stanley but that doesn't correlate with the trade value I would have on him. He would likely net us a pick between 30-40, IMO. However that's pretty much useless to us so I favour getting a return of a young player with some talent.

Stanley = Pick 21. Get out of town!

[St Ick]

There's some gold in this thread, good bump OldMate.

Sorry to pluck you out pluggs as everyone said something funny in here, but this one was a beauty!

Stanley isnt getting us a first rounder even if we traded picks. he is a delistment or a keeper IMO.

I'd love for someone to dig up some comedy gold (aka abuse) that came posters' way when they suggested to trade McEvoy a couple of years ago...

[dragit]

There's some gold in this thread, good bump OldMate.

Sorry to pluck you out pluggs as everyone said something funny in here, but this one was a beauty!

Stanley isnt getting us a first rounder even if we traded picks. he is a delistment or a keeper IMO.

I'd love for someone to dig up some comedy gold (aka abuse) that came posters' way when they suggested to trade McEvoy a couple of years ago...

There were plenty, but here's a couple of gems…
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=82503
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=82597
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=82365