Rhys Stanley for Pick #21

[brewski]

i dont understand why the club so keen for the 3 draft picks in first round, every bit of information from what seems like every source on the planet says this draft is not deep and is poor comparative to previous years.
everytime i hear it described by so-called experts its always the same:
Petracca , daylight, more daylight, oh a bit more daylight and then choices 2 -10 are pretty good and after that why bother
we have pick 1, we will get the best kid going around, why worry about a forward now, seriously there will be a flood of really good ones leaving the Giants in next couple of years begging to come to us and lets face it, its not like we really believe we will be competitive next year right?

[MC Gusto]

Pick 21 overs or unders?? Interesting analysis here:

[Ghost Like]

So what if we win the next 2 spoons? We get the next 2 number 1 draft picks. Our current list is no where near finals in the next 3 years. I'm sure the people at the club have some idea about what we need to make finals as well as a good insight into what players can help achieve that. Loyalty for me, left when Plugger, Ball & BJ did. A beautiful notion but valueless in the AFL, it is only of meaning to those who support, follow & cry for our clubs, us.

[Sainternist]

Am tired of waiting for Stanley to come good. He's a bum. Geelong can have him and we'll get a potential gun in exchange. Sounds good to me.

[Con Gorozidis]

i dont understand why the club so keen for the 3 draft picks in first round, every bit of information from what seems like every source on the planet says this draft is not deep and is poor comparative to previous years.
everytime i hear it described by so-called experts its always the same:
Petracca , daylight, more daylight, oh a bit more daylight and then choices 2 -10 are pretty good and after that why bother
we have pick 1, we will get the best kid going around, why worry about a forward now, seriously there will be a flood of really good ones leaving the Giants in next couple of years begging to come to us and lets face it, its not like we really believe we will be competitive next year right?

Simple. Adding one good player per year wont even see us break even. And we are already bottom.

There seems to be some mass denial/delusion about where we are at. We finished 18th from 18 and our top 4 in the b & F were all over 30. This is an enormous crisis. Its not panic stations - and each trade should be based on its merits and its merits alone. But we can idly sit by and do nothing. Our list is in an utterly horrendous condition. Hope is not a strategy. We cant just sit back and pick up one good player per year for 5 years and expect to improve. We will lose 5 good players in the next 2 years alone. That would see us have a net loss of good players and we are already bottom. We need to roll the dice and we need drastic action. Doing nothing and hoping for the best will not get us off the bottom ever.

And not sure what experts you are listening to/reading either.
I am willing to bet $1,000 dollars that over the next decade Petracca is NOT the best player from this years draft.

[MC Gusto]

We are Hurling People now.
This is what we do.
Quick look - Rhys Stanley’s surprising value
This is part of Hurling People Now’s ongoing series on the 2014 AFL Draft/Trade Period. To catch up with our methodology, check out our Draft Pick Trade Value Chart, our AFL Player Trade Value Formula and our Elite Player Value Formula.
Rhys Stanley’s Value
Rhys Stanley Player Value (AA) = (31-23) * (16.33) *(1) * (10) = 1306.67
Rhys Stanley Player Value (BV) = (31-23) * (16.33) *(1.02) * (10) = 1332.8
This one surprised us. Stanley is a 200cm ruck/forward who has been in the system for five seasons, and toiling away getting regular games for St Kilda has given him an impressive average of 16.33 games a season, placing his value at just below pick 8.
Popular consensus would probably have this as paying overs for Stanley. However the facts are he has played most games over the last 3 years in a position where many players don’t prosper at such a young age. Stanley’s tally of 18 goals and 148 hitouts places him in the same class as Ryder and Hale for the 2014 season, the only three players to have more than 15 goals and 140 HOs.
St Kilda may have been terrible in 2014, but Stanley claimed his spot in earlier seasons when St Kilda were much more competitive, thwarted only by hamstring issues and a broken collarbone. He also managed to get games in 2010 as an 18-year-old, when St Kilda made a grand final, replacing an injured Riewoldt and winning 7 from 7 games.
On the other hand, he was outside of the top 12 in his club B&F this year, and 21st last year. And getting games for St Kilda is certainly easier than at, say, Geelong.
On balance, HPN is giving him the benefit of the doubt as a young AFL-grade forward-ruck with a decent career ahead of him. 2014 figures in the class of Hale and Ryder suggest he belongs at this level.
The mooted trade of pick 21 (960) points falls just outside the bounds of our +/-25% fairness test. Geelong would perhaps view this as being a swap of Christensen for Stanley and in those terms - 23 year olds with a surprising number of games under their belts - it seems essentially fair. St Kilda right now have an explicitly stated strategy of gathering draft picks and may be willing to accept a lower pick than Stanley is worth in order to achieve this.
-S
Oct 14th, 2014

[Wigsy]

Amen. Currently surprised we may have so few tickets to the dance.

[Toy Saint]

Thanks McGusto, very scincetific, and it's consistent with my own view.

Still reckon Pt Adelaide have a real need for Stanley, I'd like to see their offer.

But I agree with the mathmetician, he's worth pick 8

[Con Gorozidis]

What's really going on in this forum??? It's a real pick measuring contest here.

Who cares who said what first??? We all follow St Kilda, I'm guessing & all have opinions, some good, some not so good & some bizarre...just like the outer, play on people.

No we dont all have 'opinions'. All but one. All of us outsider plebs have idiotic & mere 'opinions' but p66 has 'true knowledge and inside 'facts'. Surely we all know this by now. He is self designated self aggrandising 'insider' and fount of all knowledge. Anyone who dares display any contact with anyone at the club should be immediately put back in their place. Brianspeaking, tony74 and now jaxons have all earned his wrath for daring to know anything from club staff. ONLY lord plugger and he alone can make any claims of inside knowledge. Anyone who displays this type of heresy will surely be attacked with head exploding personal vitriol from the fount.

[Ghost Like]

I am willing to bet $1,000 dollars that over the next decade Petracca is NOT the best player from this years draft.

How many kids do you want to put him up against Con? 5, 10, 20, 50? I'll take those odds - 5/1, 10/1, 20/1, 50/1

Although I do agree, the number 1 draft pick alone won't help but a lucky dip for the sake of doing something is not the answer.

[Con Gorozidis]

For the record Rhys has been 'in the system' for six years - not five. He was drafted in 08.

Having said all that - 121 marks for the year - I think Rhys is a 15-20 pick.

But this is why Pelchen is on the big bucks. Hes going to lead us to heaven or hell. We will know in two years which way it will end up.

[The Redeemer]

Thanks McGusto, very scincetific, and it's consistent with my own view.

Still reckon Pt Adelaide have a real need for Stanley, I'd like to see their offer.

But I agree with the mathmetician, he's worth pick 8

Hence why they are getting a much better version in Patrick Ryder

[plugger66]

So what if we win the next 2 spoons? We get the next 2 number 1 draft picks. Our current list is no where near finals in the next 3 years. I'm sure the people at the club have some idea about what we need to make finals as well as a good insight into what players can help achieve that. Loyalty for me, left when Plugger, Ball & BJ did. A beautiful notion but valueless in the AFL, it is only of meaning to those who support, follow & cry for our clubs, us.

If we got 3 wooden spoons in a row we will again lose our coach, sponsors, members and we wouldn't have to many players wanting to play with the club. It matter at least a little bit.

[The OtherThommo]

I reckon some folks are being a little on the pessimistic side when they suggest we'll be anchored to the bottom for the next few years.

I reckon ladder positions are pretty volatile now, maybe moreso than recent history. Look at Port. They were dead and buried only a couple of years ago.

There's a pretty clear layering of the ladder in play. While I'm not delusional enough to think the gap to the Dorks, Sydney and, maybe, Port, is bridgeable in the next few, I reckon ladder rises are very feasible.

We're assembling a good crop of younguns and a couple of them will be absolute guns (e.g. Jack the Youngest - what that kid did this year, off that prep, stamped him).

We've got clear deficiencies, particularly in the mids. But, mids, as a group, can develop pretty quickly - a lot depends on the coaching and development, which I think we may have around about right for a young group.

Ergo, I'm happy to go with the judgement of those in charge (and that ain't always the case, as my SS handle attests).

"Do what you do do well boys" (and Peta).

Until it crashes and burns, of course, then I always knew better.

[howlinwolf]

i dont understand why the club so keen for the 3 draft picks in first round, every bit of information from what seems like every source on the planet says this draft is not deep and is poor comparative to previous years.
everytime i hear it described by so-called experts its always the same:
Petracca , daylight, more daylight, oh a bit more daylight and then choices 2 -10 are pretty good and after that why bother
we have pick 1, we will get the best kid going around, why worry about a forward now, seriously there will be a flood of really good ones leaving the Giants in next couple of years begging to come to us and lets face it, its not like we really believe we will be competitive next year right?

Simple. Adding one good player per year wont even see us break even. And we are already bottom.

There seems to be some mass denial/delusion about where we are at. We finished 18th from 18 and our top 4 in the b & F were all over 30. This is an enormous crisis. Its not panic stations - and each trade should be based on its merits and its merits alone. But we can idly sit by and do nothing. Our list is in an utterly horrendous condition. Hope is not a strategy. We cant just sit back and pick up one good player per year for 5 years and expect to improve. We will lose 5 good players in the next 2 years alone. That would see us have a net loss of good players and we are already bottom. We need to roll the dice and we need drastic action. Doing nothing and hoping for the best will not get us off the bottom ever.

And not sure what experts you are listening to/reading either.
I am willing to bet $1,000 dollars that over the next decade Petracca is NOT the best player from this years draft.

I understand where you're coming from Con and agree that a few years of just pick one isn't going to work for us. That's if we used it as pick 1.
However it's like selling your house or car, you set a bottom value and if it doesn't reach that you are getting unders and go to plan B.
So No.1 is on the table this year for something that is a worthwhile trade. If that is not there then this year it's plan B.
Take pick 1.
There's no point in selling it for unders. We don't have a crystal ball to know those lower picks will guns anyway.
Next year if we are win another spoon there may be a mouth watering trade for No.1. It's unlikely to happen year after year in any case.

[Con Gorozidis]

How did Port improve just out of interest do people think?

Sitting around hoping for the best (praying) or backing their recruiters and aggressively going after talented youth?

[SainterK]

IMO, best thing for us and Rhys.

Upgraded where he went in the draft pick wise, it's good value for him.

Think it would suit him to go where he isn't a walk up start, doesn't suit him knowing he pretty much is guaranteed a game.

[Ghost Like]

So what if we win the next 2 spoons? We get the next 2 number 1 draft picks. Our current list is no where near finals in the next 3 years. I'm sure the people at the club have some idea about what we need to make finals as well as a good insight into what players can help achieve that. Loyalty for me, left when Plugger, Ball & BJ did. A beautiful notion but valueless in the AFL, it is only of meaning to those who support, follow & cry for our clubs, us.

If we got 3 wooden spoons in a row we will again lose our coach, sponsors, members and we wouldn't have to many players wanting to play with the club. It matter at least a little bit.

We have done it all before, it is not catastrophic. As long as we stick with a plan, show some courage in that, I'm sure our sponsors and members will stay or actually improve with the clear direction shown. That is sky is falling stuff I think.

[Playon]

This is a trade we may live to regret. Geelongs midfield putting it onto his chest and not having to play under Roo's shadow and improving each year will see how good he could be. Pick 21 in not enough.
How will we replace him? Players that can ruck AND play forward don't grow on trees, Will we have to wait until Stewies son's grow up?
I can't ever see how a longer and Hickey combo will ever work, which means Holmes or Pierce may be second ruck, again I can't see it either.

I understand the theory of more picks increases the chances of getting better players, but it also increases the chances of getting more gops or worse and less guarantees the lower your picks. The bulldogs for example having been dreaming of getting a key forward for years.
I wouldn't trade Stanley until we have other bases covered, if at all.

I'd rather us keep pick 1, keep stanley get a possible A greader in Petracca, more draft picks next year and attack free agency.

Who's to say we wont get a dud with pick 21.

I hope we dont get set back years trying to go forward quickly and I hope I get to eat plenty of humble pie when proven wrong but I see the Stanley trade as a mistake

[plugger66]

What's really going on in this forum??? It's a real pick measuring contest here.

Who cares who said what first??? We all follow St Kilda, I'm guessing & all have opinions, some good, some not so good & some bizarre...just like the outer, play on people.

No we dont all have 'opinions'. All but one. All of us outsider plebs have idiotic & mere 'opinions' but p66 has 'true knowledge and inside 'facts'. Surely we all know this by now. He is self designated self aggrandising 'insider' and fount of all knowledge. Anyone who dares display any contact with anyone at the club should be immediately put back in their place. Brianspeaking, tony74 and now jaxons have all earned his wrath for daring to know anything from club staff. ONLY lord plugger and he alone can make any claims of inside knowledge. Anyone who displays this type of heresy will surely be attacked with head exploding personal vitriol from the fount.

We can all see how smart you are Con by the claim Petracca wont be the best player in this years draft. Wow. I wish I went to the same school as you to come up with something so outlandish. I still see you cant ignore me when other suggest I said something. Really got issues. Maybe its time to MOVE to the COUNTRY and do some WEIGHTS in front of FAMALIES at a gym.

[The Redeemer]

How did Port improve just out of interest do people think?

Sitting around hoping for the best (praying) or backing their recruiters and aggressively going after talented youth?

They drafted a whole bunch of talent over 5+ seasons due to pretty crappy performances consistently....

[plugger66]

So what if we win the next 2 spoons? We get the next 2 number 1 draft picks. Our current list is no where near finals in the next 3 years. I'm sure the people at the club have some idea about what we need to make finals as well as a good insight into what players can help achieve that. Loyalty for me, left when Plugger, Ball & BJ did. A beautiful notion but valueless in the AFL, it is only of meaning to those who support, follow & cry for our clubs, us.

If we got 3 wooden spoons in a row we will again lose our coach, sponsors, members and we wouldn't have to many players wanting to play with the club. It matter at least a little bit.

We have done it all before, it is not catastrophic. As long as we stick with a plan, show some courage in that, I'm sure our sponsors and members will stay or actually improve with the clear direction shown. That is sky is falling stuff I think.

Never got close to doing it in the AFL and I don't think any club has apart from the new clubs. There will certainly be another new coach and then we start again.

[Gershwin]

Hasn't Richardson said that Stanley is a fine athlete, competitive and works hard, but is not a great footballer. His good games are when he is significantly superior to his opponent athletically but when his opponent can match him athletically he struggles. They are trying to improve him as a footballer.
I'm sure the Development coaches would have had a say in this and maybe enough is enough and they can't see him improving further.

21 is not a bad pick and if it means we achieve our strategy of increasing picks in the first 3 rounds by 50% (it almost does) and we keep pick 1 then I say fair enough.

[mordiboyz]

Lets make this happen Saints.

Pick 21 is GREAT result.

[matrix]

Get it right.
He did not say pet won't be the best player in this years draft.
And even if he did so what?
He didn't say that so it matters not.
It does seem as if it IS a bit of a measuring contest.... Only thing is someone is standing there measuring alone.
Who cares who gets what right or wrong.
?
I mean really ffs.
If you get s*** wrong you say oh well, got if wrong, s***s happens, at least I learnt something .
Those that can't admit fault and get on with it usually learn SFA and only have enough intelligence to stand there with a ruler in one hand and a shorter ruler in the other.

Good lord
Heavens forbid someone might have some club info and that it turns out wrong because plans change.
Youll get your ballbag stapled to the wall in here if you end up wrong.
Jax and tony better cover up......the staplers out and ready