Stick With Petracca

[skeptic]

The history of pick 1 is not good, meaning there are no guarantees you will get a quality AFL player with pick 1.

Clubs do their homework , the actual trade scenario the Saints are working on is probably NOT being mentioned on here. Tony74 would have to spill the beans
for us to have a heads up and i doubt he'd do that.

Someone put up a history of round 1 since 2000. Pretty much a safe bet if melbourne don't touch it. To early to tell on the GWS guys yet. Most are at least very good exceptions are Watts and Scully and only Watts is in the waste of space category. Kruezer isn't the player he could have been but that's probably due to his injuries.

There you go gringo, making excuses for No. 1 draft picks

My comment is based on the full history of No.1 draft picks, not a selected section of them..

In context though... In the full history they at least stack up as well as the other picks. Pre-2000 it was much less organised and less money going into it.
Clearly drafting is a part of the game that we do better now then 20. Years ago

[Dave McNamara]

Hi CW. I was just wondering...

Do you have a house in a nice area of Melbs' or Sydney (I'd look at Brisvegas too maybe)?
Or anything in Byron Bay?
Drive an old classic car? (Volvos aren't classic cars, btw, nor is anything built in Sweden/Korea/Malaysia/West Javanesia/the old East Germany. )
A worthwhile share portfolio?
MCG membership?
A size 11-ish new pair of the old classic Converse Skate shoes (dark blue preferably)?

If so, please PM me. I have a great offer for you.

[HitTheBoundary]

Someone phoned in to SEN and said they'd heard a whisper;

Pick 1 to GWS

Jacksch and O'Rourke to Carlton

Picks 3 and 6 to Saints. (Assuming that GWS still have pick 3.)

I think that would be seriously worth considering.

[bergholt]

My comment is based on the full history of No.1 draft picks, not a selected section of them..

Here's the full history:

https://www.draftguru.com.au/picks/1

It was terrible until 1992 but the draft was a crapshoot back then anyway. If you're going to include Richard Lounder et al then all pretence of sensible analysis goes out the window.

In 10 of the 13 years between 92 and 04 the number 1 pick played at least 200 games. The two years following that are Murphy and Gibbs who are each guaranteed to get to 200, so that makes it 12 of 15. 80% chance based on that sample. (I'd say Kreuzer, Watts, Scully Swallow are also monties to get to 200 games but let's ignore that for now.) Plenty of AAs, B&Fs as well, though actually only one Brownlow and he's nowhere near the best of the number 1s.

An 80% chance of getting a 200 gamer is pretty good, isn't it? Considering we've only had 28 guys reach 200 games in the last 120 years or so.

[ralphsmith]

I just watched this video of Petracca.



He looks pretty good. Not much pace. Seems to find the ball a lot. Handballs a lot!! But finds the handball target with a high percentage which is good.
Better kick than Jack Steven...but 99% of AFL players probably are.

Roll of a dice to predict how good he'll actually be at AFL level. I pray the gods of drafting smile upon us.

[skeptic]

Someone phoned in to SEN and said they'd heard a whisper;

Pick 1 to GWS

Jacksch and O'Rourke to Carlton

Picks 3 and 6 to Saints. (Assuming that GWS still have pick 3.)

I think that would be seriously worth considering.

So trade the best pick for the stand out player...
For 2 lesser picks for 2 less outstanding players

Personally doesn't appeal to me.

The point isn't to have the best number of picks it's to get an amazing player and we have a better chance to do that with pick 1 then we do with pick 3 and 6

[Old Mate]

Someone phoned in to SEN and said they'd heard a whisper;

Pick 1 to GWS

Jacksch and O'Rourke to Carlton

Picks 3 and 6 to Saints. (Assuming that GWS still have pick 3.)

I think that would be seriously worth considering.

So trade the best pick for the stand out player...
For 2 lesser picks for 2 less outstanding players

Personally doesn't appeal to me.

The point isn't to have the best number of picks it's to get an amazing player and we have a better chance to do that with pick 1 then we do with pick 3 and 6

It depends how our recruitment team evaluate the draft. They may rank pick 1/Petracca only marginally higher than the third ranked player and see this trade as a sound investment getting another top 10 pick/player.

[Johnny Favier]

Read this from Emma Quale today in the age. Ggreat article giving a brief description of most players in the draft and their coaches opinion of them
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/a ... 0pj9n.html

Then I read this about CP....I especially like his coaches take on him which is Mark Neeld. Just think we need to take this kid..he seems like a dangerfield mixed with a pendlebury. Big stat is he is 92kg....massive bodied midfielder...a must for today's footy!

Let's draft this guy number 1...give him the number one guernsey and move on.

Christian Petracca (Eastern Ranges)
Born 4.1.1996, 186cm, 92kg
AFL biography: Powerful inside midfielder/forward who is strong overhead and is a clearance star. Breaks tackles with his elite agility and tackles strongly. Vic Metro MVP and Larke Medallist of the NAB AFL Under-18 Championships. Kicking has become a real asset. Averaged 25 disposals, 5.4 marks and five clearances on his way to winning All-Australian Under-18 honours.
Mark Neeld, Eastern Ranges: "Christian is a really bubbly personality and when people talk about footballers who want to be the best they can be, he's the perfect example of that. He asks an abundance of appropriate questions, he trains really hard, he's super competitive and I think he actually has massive upside because of his basketball background. He might be physically mature but he's really only focused on footy for the last couple of years, and as a result he has a lot of improvement still to come in every area. I think he'll be really hard to match up on an AFL level because he's very strong in one on one contests, he keeps his feet, he has an aggressive streak and he also has enough class to use the footy well. This has been his first year in midfield and he's taken all before him. It's what he wanted to do and he's really worked hard to do it. He has pace, he's aggressive and he's a very busy personality but he's under no illusion as to where his future lies and wherever he goes I think he'll make a difference next year."


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/a ... z3EzehuI6t

I'm sold!

[Munga]

The top 5-10 players seem to be pretty even. Question is, are they "good even" or "average even"? Last year's top 8 seem to be a great standard already, and the top 10 the year before that.

[Bunk_Moreland]

Reported on SEN by Brett Anderson that JOR, Jaksche #4 for #1 has been rejected out of hand by the STKFC.

So looking more and more Petracca unless we get something out of the box.

[HitTheBoundary]

Reported on SEN by Brett Anderson that JOR, Jaksche #4 for #1 has been rejected out of hand by the STKFC.

So looking more and more Petracca unless we get something out of the box.

Or unless we rate someone higher than Petracca.

If we want McCartin, who is the same height as Roughead, and a midfielder we could possible get both with picks 3 & 6.
That would be a good 2 for 1 deal IMO.

[skeptic]

Someone phoned in to SEN and said they'd heard a whisper;

Pick 1 to GWS

Jacksch and O'Rourke to Carlton

Picks 3 and 6 to Saints. (Assuming that GWS still have pick 3.)

I think that would be seriously worth considering.

So trade the best pick for the stand out player...
For 2 lesser picks for 2 less outstanding players

Personally doesn't appeal to me.

The point isn't to have the best number of picks it's to get an amazing player and we have a better chance to do that with pick 1 then we do with pick 3 and 6

It depends how our recruitment team evaluate the draft. They may rank pick 1/Petracca only marginally higher than the third ranked player and see this trade as a sound investment getting another top 10 pick/player.

Fair call

[SideshowMilne]

Reported on SEN by Brett Anderson that JOR, Jaksche #4 for #1 has been rejected out of hand by the STKFC.

So looking more and more Petracca unless we get something out of the box.

On face value and for the lay person that is a good deal. If it's true we've rejected it then it suggests we are reasonably confident of getting one of jor or kj a lot cheaper. Maybe psd

[saintsRrising]

Pick 1 for 3 and 6.

Looking at the phantom drafts (as I will not pretent that I can rank these kids):

3= Choice of McCartin or Wright. You would think MCartin.

Pick 6 -Say choice of Durdin a tall defender or the best mid left (Brayshaw to be gone) who looks like the "poor-mans" Petracca.

Sam Durdin (West Adelaide)
Born 6.6.1996, 197cm, 87kg
AFL biography: Tall defender/ruckman who is strong overhead and good below his knees. Aggressive in the contest and strong one on one while displaying very good leadership traits. Played important role for South Australia in winning the NAB AFL Under-18 Championships, playing all six matches averaging 10 possessions 3.3 marks and 11 hitouts.
Brenton Phillips, SANFL: "Sam finished the season off well, he was best on ground in the under-18 grand final playing in the ruck, he had something like 48 hit-outs and was the dominant big person on the ground. To me just kept getting a little bit better every week after the championships. His star to the season was slow because of his thumb injury and he had to go into a West Adelaide side that was smashed with injury when he wasn't going at his best. He went back into the under-18s for the last four weeks and played four good finals. He's best suited to rucking, but he's not going to do that at AFL level I wouldn't have thought, so he's just going to need some more development and coaching and I have no doubt he'll be able to play well at both ends of the ground."


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/a ... z3FFcdZdvn


Jayden Laverde (Western Jets)
Born 12.4.1996, 189cm, 82kg
AFL biography: Smooth moving medium midfielder/forward with neat disposal skills. Can turn opponents inside out with his agility and is dangerous around goals. Strong overhead and a difficult match up with athletic attributes in forward half or in midfield. Averaged 16.8 disposals at 74% efficiency and 5 marks during the NAB AFL U18 Championships winning All Australian honours.


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/a ... z3FFbQVmgZ



This would look to be a value strategy. But I still fear for lack of cream in our midfield, and midfield is the most important part of any team

[stinger]

picks 3 and 6 ...more likely to turn into 4 and 7....mccartin, wright, petracca and brayshaw will all be gone by then.....durdin would be the next best

[Dave McNamara]

Having another (closer this time) look at 'our' boy's efficiency in 'that' vid.

As pointed out, he doesn't seem to miss with his handballs. He also did not miss a pass by foot.

The less effective kicks where all when he went long, and generally they were under pressure from a clearance. I would expect this not to be an issue in the AFL because...
- He will get better with experience. (People forget that he's only recently moved to being an on-baller, so is still 'learning' that part of the game.)
- At AFL level, with far better team structures/game plans,etc c/f the more of a kick it forward approach of the lower levels, he will actually have more of a target (player or area of the ground to kick to), and also better drilled team mates to give him more options to kick to, or to hand ball off to c/f having to go for the rushed clearing kick.

He did miss that set shot sitter, but who hasn't? His kicking action looks just fine.

4:59 into that video, hard to accurately estimate, but the kick (from the outer flank, well beyond the 50, that landed almost on the line) must have travelled 60m, and maybe 65m(?) (No mention of any breeze in the commentary.)

[HitTheBoundary]

picks 3 and 6 ...more likely to turn into 4 and 7....mccartin, wright, petracca and brayshaw will all be gone by then.....durdin would be the next best

I agree, 4 and 7 is very different in this draft to 3 and 6.

Does anyone know when the AFL finalises their compensation picks? Hopefully Melbourne don't get pick 3 for a backman.

[Jimmy O'Dea]

I have been a Petracca fan since he stepped into the TAC Cup and we should draft him with our first pic. I think though Peter Wright could be anything and a future star. He has immense talent and is a freak of an athlete for his size, more risk though given how long it takes for such talls to develop. McCartin is a ripping young kid and the closest thing to Plugger there has been. I think he will prove many detractors wrong.

[plugger66]

I have been a Petracca fan since he stepped into the TAC Cup and we should draft him with our first pic. I think though Peter Wright could be anything and a future star. He has immense talent and is a freak of an athlete for his size, more risk though given how long it takes for such talls to develop. McCartin is a ripping young kid and the closest thing to Plugger there has been. I think he will prove many detractors wrong.

Surely that means we take McCartin?

[Old Mate]

I have been a Petracca fan since he stepped into the TAC Cup and we should draft him with our first pic. I think though Peter Wright could be anything and a future star. He has immense talent and is a freak of an athlete for his size, more risk though given how long it takes for such talls to develop. McCartin is a ripping young kid and the closest thing to Plugger there has been. I think he will prove many detractors wrong.

Surely that means we take McCartin?

I'm not sure Plugger survives in today's game but that's a separate argument!

[Old Mate]

I have been a Petracca fan since he stepped into the TAC Cup and we should draft him with our first pic. I think though Peter Wright could be anything and a future star. He has immense talent and is a freak of an athlete for his size, more risk though given how long it takes for such talls to develop. McCartin is a ripping young kid and the closest thing to Plugger there has been. I think he will prove many detractors wrong.

Petracca's also the safe bet. You pretty much know what you are going to get. A bull of a midfielder that can sit fwd for large portions of games and kick bags.

[sasaint]

picks 3 and 6 ...more likely to turn into 4 and 7....mccartin, wright, petracca and brayshaw will all be gone by then.....durdin would be the next best

Post by stinger » 05 Oct 2014, 18:13

How can all of mccartin, wright, petracca and brayshaw be gone at pick 4? Surely it is then which of these is left and they all are potential marquee players. Something the Saints really needs when Roo leaves.

[bergholt]

picks 3 and 6 ...more likely to turn into 4 and 7....mccartin, wright, petracca and brayshaw will all be gone by then.....durdin would be the next best

Post by stinger » 05 Oct 2014, 18:13

How can all of mccartin, wright, petracca and brayshaw be gone at pick 4?

Fair question - they can't! It'll be one of McCartin and Wright left at that point, depending on who ends up with those first three picks. Some talk that the Dogs might trade with Melbourne for one of them, which would mean pick 1 is Petracca, Melbourne take Brayshaw and the Dogs take Wright. That would leave McCartin for us.

[sainterjo]

Waiting to find out whether we draft him, I love him and call him Pet Rock. Or we don't draft him, so I call him Fat Legs...

[magnifisaint]

I've got a sneaking suspicion that if we keep no1 that McCartin will be taken. I hope I'm wrong. He sounds like a lumbering big man who's not overly tall for the key position.