Saints to trade with the swines?

[saintsRrising]

We have to take the key forward.

We just have to.

Terry Wallace spruiks some stat that basically every decent key forward in the game (or at least a very, very high %) come high in the draft (ie. taken in the top 10).

They're not all guaranteed to be stars - but it's almost a guarantee that unless they're taken in the top 10 they'll be no good.

Yes there are no good key forwards taken outside the top 10...................

Tex Walker #75
Goodes #43
Vardy #42
Jonathan Brown #30
Darling #26
Carlisle #24
Petrie #23
Jack Riewoldt # 13
Shulz #12
Tippet # 11

vs the "certain" top 10 picks......Watts, Thorp, Kruezer, Jarrad Grant, Tyrone Vickery, Kepler Bradley, Gumbleton

[bergholt]

We have to take the key forward.

We just have to.

Terry Wallace spruiks some stat that basically every decent key forward in the game (or at least a very, very high %) come high in the draft (ie. taken in the top 10).

They're not all guaranteed to be stars - but it's almost a guarantee that unless they're taken in the top 10 they'll be no good.

Here's some decent key forwards of the last five or six years.

Top 10: Riewoldt N (1), Roughead (2), Kennedy (4), Pavlich (4), Franklin (5)

10 to 20: Lynch T (11), Schulz (12), Riewoldt J (13), Hall (19)

Rest of ND: Petrie (23), Darling (26), Tippett (32), Fevola (38), Goodes (43), Mooney (56), Bradshaw (56)

Father-Son: Brown (30), Cloke (39), Hawkins (41), Waite (46)

Rookie Draft: Jenkins (12), Podsiadly (50)

Others: Cameron (GWS underage pick), Walker (NSW scholarship pick 75), Tredrea (Port Adelaide foundation pick)

Certainly doesn't look like the majority of them are in the top 10, though there's definitely some quality there.

And these guys were also taken in the top 10 over the last twenty years:

Jack Watts (1)
Scott Gumbleton (2)
Brendon Fewster (3)
Ryan Fitzgerald (4)
Luke Livingston (4)
Tim Walsh (4)
Andrew McDougall (5)
Jarrad Grant (5)
Kepler Bradley (6)
Tom Williams (6)
Beau Dowler (6)
Mitch Thorp (6)
Bowen Lockwood (7)
Lawrence Angwin (7)
Leigh Brockman (8)
John Meesen (8)
John Butcher (8)
Jason Laycock (10)

Plenty of ways to fail picking a key forward in the top 10.

I'm not sure Wallace's theory holds up.

[spert]

I would be more concerned about getting quality in the midfield first- not much good having quality forwards when the ball doesn't get down there

[FQF]

I feel like I'm writing this incessantly but I'll say it again.

You can never have too many A grade midfielders - never. When we have more A grade midfielders than there are 5 midfield spots on the ground, then we place them in the forward line, and when we have more A grade midfielders than there are midfield and forward spots, you place them on half back, and when we have more than that, we place them on the bench. And then the rest is depth.

If McCartin was Tom Boyd then everyone would agree to take him despite there being outstanding midfield prospects in the draft (Kelly, Billings, Bont et al. - all of whom might be better than Petracca). But McCartin is not seen to be any where near as certain as Boyd. It really seems to be a no brainer.

[Con Gorozidis]

Terrific research bergholt.
Some very tricky decisions coming up this year.
I dont envy being a recruiter atm. The thing with recuiting a key fwd - is if u spend pick 1 on them and they are no good - its a huge loss and you will cop it for a decade. But if you dont pick them and they turn out good you will cop it for a decade...
Petracca certainly the 'safer' option if there is a such a thing . Pick 1 is a bit of a burden. In some ways Id rather pick 2!

[SaintPav]

We have to take the key forward.

We just have to.

Terry Wallace spruiks some stat that basically every decent key forward in the game (or at least a very, very high %) come high in the draft (ie. taken in the top 10).

They're not all guaranteed to be stars - but it's almost a guarantee that unless they're taken in the top 10 they'll be no good.

Here's some decent key forwards of the last five or six years.

Top 10: Riewoldt N (1), Roughead (2), Kennedy (4), Pavlich (4), Franklin (5)

10 to 20: Lynch T (11), Schulz (12), Riewoldt J (13), Hall (19)

Rest of ND: Petrie (23), Darling (26), Tippett (32), Fevola (38), Goodes (43), Mooney (56), Bradshaw (56)

Father-Son: Brown (30), Cloke (39), Hawkins (41), Waite (46)

Rookie Draft: Jenkins (12), Podsiadly (50)

Others: Cameron (GWS underage pick), Walker (NSW scholarship pick 75), Tredrea (Port Adelaide foundation pick)

Certainly doesn't look like the majority of them are in the top 10, though there's definitely some quality there.

And these guys were also taken in the top 10 over the last twenty years:

Jack Watts (1)
Scott Gumbleton (2)
Brendon Fewster (3)
Ryan Fitzgerald (4)
Luke Livingston (4)
Tim Walsh (4)
Andrew McDougall (5)
Jarrad Grant (5)
Kepler Bradley (6)
Tom Williams (6)
Beau Dowler (6)
Mitch Thorp (6)
Bowen Lockwood (7)
Lawrence Angwin (7)
Leigh Brockman (8)
John Meesen (8)
John Butcher (8)
Jason Laycock (10)

Plenty of ways to fail picking a key forward in the top 10.

I'm not sure Wallace's theory holds up.

Nice post but what about poor Kos?

[FQF]

Terrific research bergholt.
Some very tricky decisions coming up this year.
I dont envy being a recruiter atm. The thing with recuiting a key fwd - is if u spend pick 1 on them and they are no good - its a huge loss and you will cop it for a decade. But if you dont pick them and they turn out good you will cop it for a decade...
Petracca certainly the 'safer' option if there is a such a thing . Pick 1 is a bit of a burden. In some ways Id rather pick 2!

If McCartin is the next Hawkins and Petracca the next Dangerfield, I don't think we'll cop it either way. We'll only cop it if one turns out a star and the other a spud and we pick the wrong one.

[tony74]

A few clubs have sought information over our no.1 pick. But as of last Friday none of the 6 teams that were left in the finals have thrown forward any names of players they are willing to deal with.

[Con Gorozidis]

Terrific research bergholt.
Some very tricky decisions coming up this year.
I dont envy being a recruiter atm. The thing with recuiting a key fwd - is if u spend pick 1 on them and they are no good - its a huge loss and you will cop it for a decade. But if you dont pick them and they turn out good you will cop it for a decade...
Petracca certainly the 'safer' option if there is a such a thing . Pick 1 is a bit of a burden. In some ways Id rather pick 2!

If McCartin is the next Hawkins and Petracca the next Dangerfield, I don't think we'll cop it either way. We'll only cop it if one turns out a star and the other a spud and we pick the wrong one.

Yep. Thats what I was trying to say. If both are stars who cares. But if one is a star and one is no good - we dont want be on the wrong side of that 50:50.
Sleepless nights for Elshaugh on this one.

[Linton Lodger]

Rumour I heard this morning about the swines wanting to trade for the number 1 pick. Seems they are very keen on Petracca and are willing to be generous in their dealings. The initial offer would be Sam Reid and Tom Mitchell. I don't know that I'd take that. I think Petracca could be the goal kicking midfielder that we so desperately and potentially a marquee player. Thoughts?

Really don't think we'd do that deal. I think we will be content to keep pick 1 and take Petracca, if they can't do the right deal. What would be the right deal? I think that is obvious and the key is GWS. GWS despite the high picks, which they mainly invested in big blokes, are a tad light on for gun midfielders. Tom Scully never will be. We need a gun key forward.

I reckon we would take this offer, which I consider plausible given the respective list requirements. Saints trade pick 1 (Petracca) to GWS for Boyd & pick 21 (or whatever GWS' second pick in the top 20 is).

We would have our three picks in the top 21, having effectively used 1 on Boyd and being left with Picks 19 (or 20) & 21.

[gringo]

Terrific research bergholt.
Some very tricky decisions coming up this year.
I dont envy being a recruiter atm. The thing with recuiting a key fwd - is if u spend pick 1 on them and they are no good - its a huge loss and you will cop it for a decade. But if you dont pick them and they turn out good you will cop it for a decade...
Petracca certainly the 'safer' option if there is a such a thing . Pick 1 is a bit of a burden. In some ways Id rather pick 2!

If McCartin is the next Hawkins and Petracca the next Dangerfield, I don't think we'll cop it either way. We'll only cop it if one turns out a star and the other a spud and we pick the wrong one.

I don't think Paddy is a Hawkins more a Fev. My concern is if you are a true FF these days you want to be a massive unit or extremely mobile and fit like Rooey. I'm not sure Paddy is going to be either. He may end up bringing the Fev style back into fashion though- lead up strong marking including down low and overhead. He kicks like a young Rooey though so expect a bit of frustration.

[Old Mate]

I really rate Tom Mitchell but for this deal to work I would be asking for a player like Mitchell + a top 5 pick and I suspect that's the type of deal the club would be after. I don't think Syd are in a position to offer what we want unless a third team were involved. GWS and Melb look like the only clubs we will deal with for pick 1.

[Linton Lodger]

Rumour I heard this morning about the swines wanting to trade for the number 1 pick. Seems they are very keen on Petracca and are willing to be generous in their dealings. The initial offer would be Sam Reid and Tom Mitchell. I don't know that I'd take that. I think Petracca could be the goal kicking midfielder that we so desperately and potentially a marquee player. Thoughts?

Really don't think we'd do that deal. I think we will be content to keep pick 1 and take Petracca, if they can't do the right deal. What would be the right deal? I think that is obvious and the key is GWS. GWS despite the high picks, which they mainly invested in big blokes, are a tad light on for gun midfielders. Tom Scully never will be. We need a gun key forward.

I reckon we would take this offer, which I consider plausible given the respective list requirements. Saints trade pick 1 (Petracca) to GWS for Boyd & pick 21 (or whatever GWS' second pick in the top 20 is).

We would have our three picks in the top 21, having effectively used 1 on Boyd and being left with Picks 19 (or 20) & 21.

[Con Gorozidis]

I'd consider it based on my limited knowledge.

You could argue Petracca = Mitchell and then we get Reid for free.

But youd have to really have a lot of info to make that decision of Mitchell v Petracca.

[matrix]

ffs just use pick on on the best mid in the draft

[mr six o'clock]

IF we were to trade away the best young kid for a couple of established players the why the for huck did we let BJ and Dal go !

Pelchen should get the boot if he was seriously considering it !

[bergholt]

IF we were to trade away the best young kid for a couple of established players the why the for huck did we let BJ and Dal !

Mitchell is 21, Reid is 22. A bit different in age to the dear departed.

[Schillaci]

No thanks. We'll have the talent and you can keep your depth Swans.

[plugger66]

IF we were to trade away the best young kid for a couple of established players the why the for huck did we let BJ and Dal go !

Pelchen should get the boot if he was seriously considering it !

It actually seems like a huge win to me. I rate Mitchell as going to be a star and would clearly be top 3 in this years draft so we basically get Reid for nothing.

[gringo]

IF we were to trade away the best young kid for a couple of established players the why the for huck did we let BJ and Dal go !

Pelchen should get the boot if he was seriously considering it !

It actually seems like a huge win to me. I rate Mitchell as going to be a star and would clearly be top 3 in this years draft so we basically get Reid for nothing.

Why would Sydney do it then? Petracca is a potential superstar in the Judd mould. Apparently Mitchell does some sloppy stuff and doesn't defend despite racking huge possessions. Reid is a so so player who would be the equivalent of Rhys Stanley and potentially worse at a club with less talent to back him up.

So we get a couple of players -one who should be a high level player with a few kinks to his game and one that could potentially be playing for Sandy but might still come good. Two guys with potential for a potential mega super gun. I would gamble on Petracca.

Clinton Jones got 39 possessions against Melbourne. Numbers look good on paper but they aren't everything.

[Devilhead]

IF we were to trade away the best young kid for a couple of established players the why the for huck did we let BJ and Dal go !

Pelchen should get the boot if he was seriously considering it !

It actually seems like a huge win to me. I rate Mitchell as going to be a star and would clearly be top 3 in this years draft so we basically get Reid for nothing.

But do we need Reid??

Tom Mitchell might become a star and might have been top 3 in this years draft however this year at the age of 21 he played 6 senior games with the Swans and 13 in the NEAFL (incl. 2 weeks when they had a bye) - he was also dropped for the Qualifying Final

Now I would hope that anyone we drafted in the Top 3 (of any draft) would be starting 22 every week by the time he turned 21

Tom Mitchell - good player - could be great - but 2nd round draft pick (at most) given the year he just had - also considering that we don't need Reid who really struggles in a side where he is getting good service.

Can anyone name me a trade whereby a top 10 draft pick (let alone a no.1 DP) was given up for two guys who struggled with form most of the year??

[plugger66]

IF we were to trade away the best young kid for a couple of established players the why the for huck did we let BJ and Dal go !

Pelchen should get the boot if he was seriously considering it !

It actually seems like a huge win to me. I rate Mitchell as going to be a star and would clearly be top 3 in this years draft so we basically get Reid for nothing.

Why would Sydney do it then? Petracca is a potential superstar in the Judd mould. Apparently Mitchell does some sloppy stuff and doesn't defend despite racking huge possessions. Reid is a so so player who would be the equivalent of Rhys Stanley and potentially worse at a club with less talent to back him up.

So we get a couple of players -one who should be a high level player with a few kinks to his game and one that could potentially be playing for Sandy but might still come good. Two guys with potential for a potential mega super gun. I would gamble on Petracca.

Clinton Jones got 39 possessions against Melbourne. Numbers look good on paper but they aren't everything.

Firstly its a rumour so the swans may not be offering us them and secondly most people say its a really even draft and now you are comparing Petracca with Judd. Of course we wouldn't do it if he was as good as Judd but my sources suggest he is no where near that type of standard. Im sorry but I really rate Mitchell because I have seen him play at AFL level and IMO he will be a star. No idea what CJ has to do with this topic. Should I mention Tom Rockliff? Mega super gun. At least you aren't using emotive words.

[LondonSaint]

Why would Sydney trade Reid and Mitchell out? Because they don't get to play in a star studded team, and at their age 21, 22 they need to play.

It also helps Sydney's salary cap situation, as Reid would be on some good coin. Reid was super for Sydney a couple of years ago.. Comparing him
to Stanley is like night and day. Plus Reid is atheletic, great contested mark and can play back if needed.. someone like Patton and Boyd is so one dimensional, it doesn't make
sense to pay pick no.1 who may or may not work in our system.

I would take the deal if it's for pick #1 + our 3rd round for Reid, Mitchell and their 1st round.

This trade will give us Reid, Michtell and 2 picks under 20: (sydney's 1st round, our 2nd round). Just need to engineer another deal to get another 1st round pick.

If we can convince another promising young player to join us through pre-season.. then we would be set.

[Teflon]

Rumour I heard this morning about the swines wanting to trade for the number 1 pick. Seems they are very keen on Petracca and are willing to be generous in their dealings. The initial offer would be Sam Reid and Tom Mitchell. I don't know that I'd take that. I think Petracca could be the goal kicking midfielder that we so desperately and potentially a marquee player. Thoughts?

Really don't think we'd do that deal. I think we will be content to keep pick 1 and take Petracca, if they can't do the right deal. What would be the right deal? I think that is obvious and the key is GWS. GWS despite the high picks, which they mainly invested in big blokes, are a tad light on for gun midfielders. Tom Scully never will be. We need a gun key forward.

I reckon we would take this offer, which I consider plausible given the respective list requirements. Saints trade pick 1 (Petracca) to GWS for Boyd & pick 21 (or whatever GWS' second pick in the top 20 is).

We would have our three picks in the top 21, having effectively used 1 on Boyd and being left with Picks 19 (or 20) & 21.

Boyd and a return pick is probably the only realistic way we should part with Petracca.

Must say its intriguing......Ive heards Petraccas the next Judd and also heard he has suspect disposal.......would love astute draft watchers to give a view on where this guy sits in relation to previous no 1 mids taken......

[fugazi]

We need elite players....otherwise we have a team of B -grader GOPs.....I say take the best in the draft with pick #1

We'll be at or near the bottom for a couple of years at least, we are signing all the youngsters on now, and have a very low median age.

Get Petracca