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Cairnsman wrote:This is a bit of an oblique but all this talk about Port and analysing their rebuild is understandable considering their story but I reckon this final series will be the real acid test on their list. How many of their players are finals players, will there be players exposed in week 3 and 4 of the finals... time will tell.
I don't think a loss in a preliminary final will show that their list has major holes or is artificial. They're still young and I wouldn't expect them to win the flag this year.
Having said that, Port will almost certainly finish top 2, giving them a home final at an unimaginably hostile Adelaide Oval. I'd expect them to win, and then they'd get a week off and a prelim again at Adelaide Oval. Anything's possible... They're talented, well coached, and super fit.
Yep, so if they somehow fail in the prelim or GF and injuries isn't the reason I'm suggesting there will be a magnification on the deficiencies that don't normally present during a home and away season. There always seems to be players that are world beaters in the home and away but just can't perform in the big one, Milne and Ballantyne spring to mind. And as we know there is nowhere to hide in a GF and we just haven't seen how Ports list can perform in the last two games of the year. Time will tell.
I reckon the position both those guys play has a lot to do with how they played in the big games. It is hardest position on the ground in low scoring games and they were all low scoring GF's. Port dont have a small forward who stays put.
Cairnsman wrote:This is a bit of an oblique but all this talk about Port and analysing their rebuild is understandable considering their story but I reckon this final series will be the real acid test on their list. How many of their players are finals players, will there be players exposed in week 3 and 4 of the finals... time will tell.
I don't think a loss in a preliminary final will show that their list has major holes or is artificial. They're still young and I wouldn't expect them to win the flag this year.
Having said that, Port will almost certainly finish top 2, giving them a home final at an unimaginably hostile Adelaide Oval. I'd expect them to win, and then they'd get a week off and a prelim again at Adelaide Oval. Anything's possible... They're talented, well coached, and super fit.
Yep, so if they somehow fail in the prelim or GF and injuries isn't the reason I'm suggesting there will be a magnification on the deficiencies that don't normally present during a home and away season. There always seems to be players that are world beaters in the home and away but just can't perform in the big one, Milne and Ballantyne spring to mind. And as we know there is nowhere to hide in a GF and we just haven't seen how Ports list can perform in the last two games of the year. Time will tell.
I reckon the position both those guys play has a lot to do with how they played in the big games. It is hardest position on the ground in low scoring games and they were all low scoring GF's. Port dont have a small forward who stays put.
Fair point but how many games would both of those players have played in that were low scoring yet performed much better than what they did in their respective GF appearances? I'm guessing heaps.
Cairnsman wrote:This is a bit of an oblique but all this talk about Port and analysing their rebuild is understandable considering their story but I reckon this final series will be the real acid test on their list. How many of their players are finals players, will there be players exposed in week 3 and 4 of the finals... time will tell.
I don't think a loss in a preliminary final will show that their list has major holes or is artificial. They're still young and I wouldn't expect them to win the flag this year.
Having said that, Port will almost certainly finish top 2, giving them a home final at an unimaginably hostile Adelaide Oval. I'd expect them to win, and then they'd get a week off and a prelim again at Adelaide Oval. Anything's possible... They're talented, well coached, and super fit.
Yep, so if they somehow fail in the prelim or GF and injuries isn't the reason I'm suggesting there will be a magnification on the deficiencies that don't normally present during a home and away season. There always seems to be players that are world beaters in the home and away but just can't perform in the big one, Milne and Ballantyne spring to mind. And as we know there is nowhere to hide in a GF and we just haven't seen how Ports list can perform in the last two games of the year. Time will tell.
I reckon the position both those guys play has a lot to do with how they played in the big games. It is hardest position on the ground in low scoring games and they were all low scoring GF's. Port dont have a small forward who stays put.
Fair point but how many games would both of those players have played in that were low scoring yet performed much better than what they did in their respective GF appearances? I'm guessing heaps.
Well they probably played in heaps and were good in a few. the problem is you only get to play in one or two GF's. Rooy hasnt exactly smashed it in GF's. Very hard for all forwards but either harder for small forwards.
BigMart wrote:Harder for tall fwds in a GF due to pressure... On the kick i50
Small fwds can benefit from the ball being on the deck a bit... And poor decision making (panicking) in defence.
Small fwds like Aker, Power, McCrae, Mercuri, Chapman.... Have played significant GF Roles
Chapman isnt a small forward. I will now argue smalls get it easier. That way im sure you will say talls do. You do love using examples to prove you are right. Lockett, Hawkins, Milne Ballantyne, Davis. yep proves jack. On average it is harder for all forwards in GF's because of how the game is usually played.
Forwards all rely on others to get the ball to them. The less pressure the 'deliverer' is under, the better the delivery to the forward. Obviously.
So forwards rarely get 'unpressured' delivery in a GF.
GF teams are usually the best defensive teams - which means forwards are naturally up against better opponents.
Small forwards suffer the above scenarios, but also don't have the ability to win aerial contests like big forwards do - so they have an ever tougher task on GF day.
So clearly it's never a surprise when a forward, let alone a small forward, doesn't dominate a GF.
It's going to be difficult to definitively define our gameplan/strategies from watching matches until we get players that are at least as good as their opponents.
It's impossible to effectively play to a gameplan if the opposition won't let you.
I imagine our "Game Plan" is simply the sum of the roles given to players each match and the KPIs that the club identifies. Once the younger players get time (games) in those roles our GP will become more obvious. Because of the stage our list is at, that will be 2 or 3 more seasons before we have a GP that is strictly St Kilda.
Love the assessment of our current list looking into the future Old Mate, I think you're pretty spot on. Fingers crossed that more surprise than disappoint!
You admit pressure on the ball carrier? So delivery is poor?
Tall forward rely on delivery more than a small fwd? A much larger proportion of the possessions are marks... And they are less effective at ground level... Where the ball is a lot more in a GF due to pressure....
A good small fwd, will relish a GF because they get more opportunities at ground level.... The ball is bombed more in a GF also... Creating front and squares...
You admit pressure on the ball carrier? So delivery is poor?
Tall forward rely on delivery more than a small fwd? A much larger proportion of the possessions are marks... And they are less effective at ground level... Where the ball is a lot more in a GF due to pressure....
A good small fwd, will relish a GF because they get more opportunities at ground level.... The ball is bombed more in a GF also... Creating front and squares...
When was the last that relished? You would think there would be one every year if they relish.
Small fwds who capitalise on their opportunities make a huge difference IMO
Big fwds.... Have it tougher, they get less open ball...
Firstly Johnson isnt really a small forward. He is a HFF come mid. Seems like you went back at least 4 years and 9 players who have kicked 2 or more goals in GF and only 2 with 3 goals. I couldnt be bothered going back more than 2 GF's but I came up with Gunstan with 4 and 2, Roughead 2 Pavlich 3 Franklyn 3 and hale 2. That in the last 2 years. Your figures dont really stack up at all. Matter of fact they stack down.
But if we count Johnno 2009 ... Who played on him? Our best small defender.
Johnno plays deep and high and in the middle... He is quite tall, but plays like a small...
He plays deep fwd during every game for periods...
Look at career averages of players and player in GFs.... Gunston aside (who is tall, but not a KP tall) they are around their average...
Of course Farmer 3, Green, Mercuri Bewick all hit the scoreboard in 2000
Power 3, Aker 2, Morecroft in 2001
Small Forwards... Historically don't average the goals KPP do... Obviously, they get the ball kicked them much less?
What they do... Is hopefully make their chances... And also set a few up?
I think maybe the term 'small forward' is being confused with the term 'opportunist forward'.
If you're small, but can win contests then its a different scenario. You're not relying as heavily on others to deliver it perfectly, and also on others' errors for your own chances - whereas the traditional opportunist forward does.
I'd put Milne in the opportunist category, although toward the end of his career he seemed to change.
BigMart wrote:But if we count Johnno 2009 ... Who played on him? Our best small defender.
Johnno plays deep and high and in the middle... He is quite tall, but plays like a small...
He plays deep fwd during every game for periods...
Look at career averages of players and player in GFs.... Gunston aside (who is tall, but not a KP tall) they are around their average...
Of course Farmer 3, Green, Mercuri Bewick all hit the scoreboard in 2000
Power 3, Aker 2, Morecroft in 2001
Small Forwards... Historically don't average the goals KPP do... Obviously, they get the ball kicked them much less?
What they do... Is hopefully make their chances... And also set a few up?
Now we are back to 2000 to prove a point. Amazing. Do you ever say you are maybe not right. You dont have to say wrong even. Johnston plays like a small but Gunstan isnt a KPP. More amazing stuff. As JM suggested Johnno is an opportunist. Im pretty sure with Buddy out of the side Gunstan has become a KPP and at times in the GF would played as a KPP. If you are allowed 2 KPP then maybe the other 4 forwards, which you seem to be using, they will kick goals because someone has to. The more you show me figures and the more you go back to 14 years ago the more you struggle. Lets just suggest that the way most GF's are played all forwards including talls and smalls generally struggle in GF's. For gods sake dont show that statement is wrong by going back to 1989 and Ablett.
One worrying facet of Richo's "game plan" if it exists, is the lack of defensive work in the midfield and forward line- can't believe how our players all accumulate on our goal side of contests and leave the ground open for the opposition to clear the ball offensively- easiest way to help an opposition kick goals quickly as has been happening. Some fundamental footy errors happening too often for my liking.
spert wrote:One worrying facet of Richo's "game plan" if it exists, is the lack of defensive work in the midfield and forward line- can't believe how our players all accumulate on our goal side of contests and leave the ground open for the opposition to clear the ball offensively- easiest way to help an opposition kick goals quickly as has been happening. Some fundamental footy errors happening too often for my liking.
Without being rude if you can see some issues I reckon 8 coaches can see more. The problem is we are a young side who may forget rules when the going gets tough and there may not be enough experience out on the ground to point out what they are doing wrong.
Forwards who rely on marking the footy moreso, not going to find it more difficult due to decreased efficiency from increased intense pressure on the midfielders?
Than forwards who win the ball more at ground level?
The mechanics of the game... As well as having played in many finals... Tells me, the tall fwds get less clean ball to mark? I've only watched and played the game for 25 years though.
Forwards who rely on marking the footy moreso, not going to find it more difficult due to decreased efficiency from increased intense pressure on the midfielders?
Than forwards who win the ball more at ground level?
The mechanics of the game... As well as having played in many finals... Tells me, the tall fwds get less clean ball to mark? I've only watched and played the game for 25 years though.
You tried stats and that proved useless now your going for watching the game for 25 years. Well ive watched it for 40 years and small forwards find it hard in GF's as do tall forwards but probably just a bit tougher for the smalls. Mmmm. I played in finals as well. Means nothing in this conversation but just thought Id add it in.
