When does rock bottom hit?

[3rd generation saint]

Goddard, Da Santo, Lynch, Dawson, McEvoy, Cripps (Thankfully), Walsh (thankfully), Gram
All left or were tipped? Various reasons...
Player retention at StK is probably the worst in the AFL
And
Of Course Lyon left

All l know is... We are back down the bottom, because we couldn't sustain success.... 5 years in the finals.... 08-12
But that was an improvement on
3 years 2004-2006
2 years 97-98
2 years 91-92

And if we had kept those players we would be looking at an even bigger abyss for the rest of the decade.
We would not have Billings, Dunstan and quite a few of our other draft picks.
Doubtful we would have won many more games and would be just as far from the 8 we are now. In reality we would be worse off than both Richmond and Carlton are now, short term gain for long term pain.
Those players are the past, not the future of this club.

[BigMart]

Whilst we wouldn't have got both Billings and Dunstan...... Well maybe

All clubs get access to a FRDP.... And we traded heavily for another SRDP

So let's say we finished 8th
We still would have had access to Dunstan.... If we traded... Then two other picks around twenty.

You can still draft in talent if you finish in the finals.
Dangerfield, Rioli, Riewoldt, Dal, Stevie J, Trengrove, Fyfe, Mundy... Heaps and heaps of very good players drafted 9-18+

[plugger66]

Whilst we wouldn't have got both Billings and Dunstan...... Well maybe

All clubs get access to a FRDP.... And we traded heavily for another SRDP

So let's say we finished 8th
We still would have had access to Dunstan.... If we traded... Then two other picks around twenty.

You can still draft in talent if you finish in the finals.
Dangerfield, Rioli, Riewoldt, Dal, Stevie J, Trengrove, Fyfe, Mundy... Heaps and heaps of very good players drafted 9-18+

We couldnt finish 8th with those players 2 years ago. Not sure we would this year. Well im 99.9% sure we wouldnt. So you would have kept BJ now. Last time someone asked you said no but.

[Verdun66]

I remember this from our last slump. 'Bumping along the bottom'. We will bounce along the bottom for 2,3 years.

[hungry for a premiership]

2014 is the equivalent of 2000.

2015 will be the equivalent of 2001.

We'll start the long climb back up the ladder in 2016 (2002).

2017 will be a year of marked improvement (2003)

2018 the window opens (2014)



Am i wrong?

[saintspremiers]

2014 is the equivalent of 2000.

2015 will be the equivalent of 2001.

We'll start the long climb back up the ladder in 2016 (2002).

2017 will be a year of marked improvement (2003)

2018 the window opens (2014)



Am i wrong?

More than likely. Everything has to go right for us to be top 4 in 2018.

realistically, I think we should hope to scrape into the 8 in 2018. That would be a great effort. Look at Shitmond and Footscray. Same could easily happen to us unless all the cards line up properly.

[dragit]

I think this ones going to take a bit longer, not a lot of talent on the list under 25 at the moment.
Something like...
2013 - 16th
2014 - 17th
2015 - 18th
2016 - 16th
2017 - 14th
Then building towards 6-8th... Hopefully more if we draft well.

[stevie]

If Richmond beats us then we will have hit rock bottom

[magnifisaint]

If Richmond beats us then we will have hit rock bottom

There's a good chance it's going to happen.

[8856brother]

If Richmond beats us then we will have hit rock bottom

There's a good chance it's going to happen.

Twice.

[Zed]

2014 is the equivalent of 2000.

2015 will be the equivalent of 2001.

We'll start the long climb back up the ladder in 2016 (2002).

2017 will be a year of marked improvement (2003)

2018 the window opens (2014)



Am i wrong?

Two extra teams now in the comp than there were back then so 2nd round picks and subsequent rounds get pushed back - which means theoretically less talented players available than with our 2nd and subsequent round picks in 2000-2003 .

We snagged 2 priority picks then - which gave us 2 extra top 5 picks

we had some luck with the drafts. 2000 - Nick Reiwoldt arguably the best #1 pick ever. 2001 draft probably the strongest of all time - and we has heaps of picks.

We got lucky with most of the guys we added from other clubs - Hamill, Gehrig, Powell, Voss, Gram, Penny, Black

We had a better middle aged core (from the 1990's) to build on - Harvey, Jones, Maxy, Peckett. Thompson, Lenny, Bakes

A lot needs to go right to replicate that success. If you look at the Bulldogs today , they are probably more like where we will be in 2 -3 years time. I think the marked improvements of 2003 & 2004 - will take nearly twice as long this time around. So for me, the window realistically doesn't open until 2019 at best but more likely 2020.

And I will still be buying my memberships and supporting the Saints.

[BakesFan]

We are rock bottom now and building... 2015 will be better....2016/17 better again.... We'll be pushing for a flag when I can finally afford to get the "SAS" logo from my sig onto Saints' shorts.

[plugger66]

We are rock bottom now and building... 2015 will be better....2016/17 better again.... We'll be pushing for a flag when I can finally afford to get the "SAS" logo from my sig onto Saints' shorts.

I hope you are right but why would the next 2 years be better apart from hoping. If Lenny does retire at the end of the year we cant be better IMO.

[bergsone]

If Lenny retires it wont help,but some more games into the youngsters,and another pre-season will will go a long way to an overall improvement.Bit of luck with no long term injuries wont go astray either

Hopefully rock bottom is now

[BakesFan]

...don't forget that we're hit by injuries at the moment....... Armo, Geary, Gilbo,Hickey, Acres and Eli to come back.......I'm not even counting Sammy Fisher as he's not likely to be part of our next Finals push.... we are at rock bottom now......the only way is up. GO SAINTS!!!

[gringo]

I think this ones going to take a bit longer, not a lot of talent on the list under 25 at the moment.
Something like...
2013 - 16th
2014 - 17th
2015 - 18th
2016 - 16th
2017 - 14th
Then building towards 6-8th... Hopefully more if we draft well.

I think that's the beauty of the kids is some disappoint and some soar. Saunders might end up better than Billings. Saunders may just be like another small long haired Geelong Falcon with a quickly receding hair style. Newnes may just stop being stodgy and become another Joey. Acres could end up the greatest Saint of all time. Webster could be a super star. It's all a bit of a lottery.

We don't have priority picks anymore but there is a bit more science especially when it comes to first rounders. We just have to buckle into our seats and enjoy the pain coaster as we redevelop our list.

[BigMart]

Big difference

Our top 3 in the B&Fs

Back then featured
Gehrig 25, Everitt 28, Hamill 24, Baker 22/25, Hayes 22/23, Ball 20/21, Riewoldt 20/22/24, Harvey 31

Now
Hayes 32/34, Riewoldt 31/32, Steven 24, Dempster 28/29, Montagna 29/30, Goddard 27

[stinger]

It's the question every fellow Saints fan wants to know at the moment...

I was lucky enough to get invited to the Pelican's list-building presentation last year @ LHC and he indicated it would be 2014, then slow and gradual improvement after then.

Leigh Montagna said in an article earlier this year rock bottom was 2013, although I suspect he's referring to friction between Coach and playing group.

With Lenny most likely retiring at the end of this season, it's not beyond the reality rock bottom hasn't arrived yet.

I suspect rock bottom will arrive Season 2015, then onwards & upwards.

when does rock bottom hit....?


ask bj

[Sainternist]

Has anyone on here drifted for flat head ? The sinker bounces along the bottom.

We are currently rock bottom and will be there for at least another 2 seasons. Then we will rig up for Gars.

I like the fishing metaphor, Fiery. Right now we'd be lucky to catch Rock Cod or a Leather Jacket. Can't wait until after we take some fighting Gars when we're baiting our hooks for the King George Whiting and Snapper.

[The Fireman]

Has anyone on here drifted for flat head ? The sinker bounces along the bottom.

We are currently rock bottom and will be there for at least another 2 seasons. Then we will rig up for Gars.

I like the fishing metaphor, Fiery. Right now we'd be lucky to catch Rock Cod or a Leather Jacket. Can't wait until after we take some fighting Gars when we're baiting our hooks for the King George Whiting and Snapper.

Hopefully before I kick the bucket we pull in that monster Snapper.

[andrewg]

Tomorrow at around 4:30

[Con Gorozidis]

We are officially at rock bottom.

[plugger66]

We are officially at rock bottom.

Not yet sadly. We have 3 wins this year. I doubting we can do that next year.

[Con Gorozidis]

We are going to be horrific for another 18 months.

No panic stations.

If we are still not competitive in 2016 I will start to panic because it means our kids arent that flash.

[ace]

When does rock bottom hit?

When you go back to back to back to back.

1983

1984

1985

1986

Winners of wooden spoons that is.
Like in 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986

That after bagging 2 previously in 1977, 1979 and then to prove it was no fluke doing it again in 1988.

12 years of pain from 1977 through to 1988, 7 wooden spoons.
Rock bottom is when after all of that you finally unearth a super star only to have him walk to Sydney.

Those who endured a spoon in 2001 and runners up in 2002 and 2003 don't know what rock bottom is like.
Rock bottom is when you become a real saints supporter.