When does rock bottom hit?

[Heidelberg_Saint]

It's the question every fellow Saints fan wants to know at the moment...

I was lucky enough to get invited to the Pelican's list-building presentation last year @ LHC and he indicated it would be 2014, then slow and gradual improvement after then.

Leigh Montagna said in an article earlier this year rock bottom was 2013, although I suspect he's referring to friction between Coach and playing group.

With Lenny most likely retiring at the end of this season, it's not beyond the reality rock bottom hasn't arrived yet.

I suspect rock bottom will arrive Season 2015, then onwards & upwards.

[BigMart]

Put it this way...

Our top 5 in the B&F this year won't be around to see us play finals.

We won't win more than two games in 2015/16.... Unless we do a 2001/2003 make over.... Which means
Trading for mid age players
Getting uncontracted players
Drafting a number of kids

Pelchin has butchered the list... Yet to see any real success story as yet. Maybe Dunstan... Who we would have drafted even if we won the 2013 premiership

[plugger66]

Put it this way...

Our top 5 in the B&F this year won't be around to see us play finals.

We won't win more than two games in 2015/16.... Unless we do a 2001/2003 make over.... Which means
Trading for mid age players
Getting uncontracted players
Drafting a number of kids

Pelchin has butchered the list... Yet to see any real success story as yet. Maybe Dunstan... Who we would have drafted even if we won the 2013 premiership

If he has butchered the list which im unsure anyway can you tell us how we would be better in 3 years if he did what you wanted him to do. This should be interesting.

[GrumpyOne]

When does rock bottom hit?

In about four more rounds.

[Wayne42]

Put it this way...

Our top 5 in the B&F this year won't be around to see us play finals.

We won't win more than two games in 2015/16.... Unless we do a 2001/2003 make over.... Which means
Trading for mid age players
Getting uncontracted players
Drafting a number of kids

Pelchin has butchered the list... Yet to see any real success story as yet. Maybe Dunstan... Who we would have drafted even if we won the 2013 premiership

I think the list was butchered during Lyin's reign, the era of the "role" player, the Pelican has to work within the system to repair the total lack of development during the flag attempt.

It's not the first time the Saints have gone from the top of the ladder to the bottom of the ladder, we seem to do that better than most.

[BigMart]

P66

How do you rate they way we've handled the list since 2011?

If Pelchens goal was to take us to the bottom, in hope of doing a Richmond, Melbourne or Carlton and rebuild with a 5 year plan.... he's achieved that?!

Me
Never a fan of great players going if possible... 1 yeah, ok you can cover that? But great clubs retain players IMO

5 walked or were pushed.... Plus a coach

[Con Gorozidis]

P66

How do you rate they way we've handled the list since 2011?

If Pelchens goal was to take us to the bottom, in hope of doing a Richmond, Melbourne or Carlton and rebuild with a 5 year plan.... he's achieved that?!

Me
Never a fan of great players going if possible... 1 yeah, ok you can cover that? But great clubs retain players IMO

5 walked or were pushed.... Plus a coach

Please dont tell me you are counting Kosi and Milney in that 6?

The cliff came because of our shocking recruitment development 2007-2011.
Since then we have had no choice but a painful re-build.

Making simplistic aphorisms like 'great clubs retain players' is meaningless. You need to deal with the reality and circumstances our list was in at 2011. Great clubs never would have got in that situation in the first place - I certainly agree there. But once we were there - we had no choice but do what were now doing.

[Saint wagga]

Going on pressers from AR; he seems to rate steven, Gilbert and Armo in that mid aged group, he's stressed on a number of occasions how the club isn't going to "Throw away" it's experience...so reading between the lines, it'll be injury prone vets Schneider, fisher who could be in trouble and maybe some trading up to get a second 1st rounder

[Zed]

I think 2015 is the bottom, with a very slight bounce starting in 2016

[plugger66]

P66

How do you rate they way we've handled the list since 2011?

If Pelchens goal was to take us to the bottom, in hope of doing a Richmond, Melbourne or Carlton and rebuild with a 5 year plan.... he's achieved that?!

Me
Never a fan of great players going if possible... 1 yeah, ok you can cover that? But great clubs retain players IMO

5 walked or were pushed.... Plus a coach

I have no idea yet how i rate it but depending on what thread you are in you either say we shouldnt have kept BJ or we should have and the same with Dal. At least you have been consistant with keeping Ben but the problem is BM that decisions cant be made in hindsight and I correctly think losing both Dal and BJ was the corrct decision and said it at the time. Also said I dont think we should have traded Ben but in hindsight that looks ok because Hickey had come on. Unfortunately he got injured and we were stuck with a ruckman who has really struggled. No ideas who the 5 players are but i dont think Ball had anything to do with Pelchen but facts have never worried you previously.

The only problem I have had with Pelchan, if its his decision, is getting Longer and also getting more picks for less quality eg Lee and again said it at the time.

[Griggsy]

2015 rock bottom, 2016 if our current youth doesn't live up to their hype in 3rd+ year. 2017 should be good if this years draftees don't bomb

[Wayne42]

2015 rock bottom, 2016 if our current youth doesn't live up to their hype in 3rd+ year. 2017 should be good if this years draftees don't bomb

Rebuilds aren't easy and there are no guarantees who you draft will go on and become a club stalwart.... especially with talls..

Look at the Bulldogs, we were being told by "eggsperts" that they were a year or two ahead of us in their rebuild, right now they have stalled, they don't have a key forward but they have lot's of talls, good one's are very hard to find, look at Brisbane, they don't have anyone to replace Brown, Daniher is still struggling, might be a couple of years away yet from living up to his reputation.

An 18 year old tall won't be the answer anytime soon for the Saints, it's a tough gig recruiting.

[BigMart]

Goddard, Da Santo, Lynch, Dawson, McEvoy, Cripps (Thankfully), Walsh (thankfully), Gram
All left or were tipped? Various reasons...
Player retention at StK is probably the worst in the AFL
And
Of Course Lyon left

All l know is... We are back down the bottom, because we couldn't sustain success.... 5 years in the finals.... 08-12
But that was an improvement on
3 years 2004-2006
2 years 97-98
2 years 91-92

[plugger66]

Goddard, Da Santo, Lynch, Dawson, McEvoy, Cripps (Thankfully), Walsh (thankfully), Gram
All left or were tipped? Various reasons...
Player retention at StK is probably the worst in the AFL
And
Of Course Lyon left

All l know is... We are back down the bottom, because we couldn't sustain success.... 5 years in the finals.... 08-12
But that was an improvement on
3 years 2004-2006
2 years 97-98
2 years 91-92

I think that comment regarding Cripps some you up perfectly. You are happy to lose him. How come every single coach he has had bar SW, who was sacked, has basically played him every game he is fit. I think it sums up you when discussing things. He was pick 24 or so in a compromised draft. he has done as well if not better than any pick we have had near that pick for about 10 years. Its pretty hard to doscuss things when you talk rubbish. If only you could make a decision one way or another and not based on the thread you are argueing the opposite of. I have read we shouldnt have kept BJ when people wanted to keep him and the exact opposte when people said he should go.

[3rd generation saint]

Watching the North Richmond game right now.
That's rock bottom, they are going to est themselves after this.
We expected this season, there is going to be so much blood letting at that club before the season is over.

[3rd generation saint]

Watching the North Richmond game right now.
That's rock bottom, they are going to est themselves after this.
We expected this season, there is going to be so much blood letting at that club before the season is over.

[3rd generation saint]

Watching the North Richmond game right now.
That's rock bottom, they are going to est themselves after this.
We expected this season, there is going to be so much blood letting at that club before the season is over.

[saint6709]

2015 rock bottom, 2016 if our current youth doesn't live up to their hype in 3rd+ year. 2017 should be good if this years draftees don't bomb

We are starting to look good for the spoon this year - I think that is rock bottom - if we finish bottom again in 2015 that would just be plateauing out I would think..... I think 2015 is the start of our return

[Rosco]

2015 is the bottom, but 2016 won't be much (if at all) better than 2014. Out of bottom 4 in 2017.

[maverick]

Goddard, Da Santo, Lynch, Dawson, McEvoy, Cripps (Thankfully), Walsh (thankfully), Gram
All left or were tipped? Various reasons...
Player retention at StK is probably the worst in the AFL
And
Of Course Lyon left

All l know is... We are back down the bottom, because we couldn't sustain success.... 5 years in the finals.... 08-12
But that was an improvement on
3 years 2004-2006
2 years 97-98
2 years 91-92

Really?
Brisbane…
Adelaide…

[Wayne42]

Watching the North Richmond game right now.
That's rock bottom, they are going to est themselves after this.
We expected this season, there is going to be so much blood letting at that club before the season is over.

F*** the Tigers, they are crap, i hope they lose the plot at seasons end, Danny was ill advised to ever agree to coach that rabble

[St Chris]

Rock bottom will probably coincide with someone else running around in the number 12 jumper.

I reckon the first half on 2016 will be the bottom. By the mid point of that year, we'll have a few decent kids getting up to the 30-50 games mark and should improve from then on...

[The Fireman]

Has anyone on here drifted for flat head ? The sinker bounces along the bottom.

We are currently rock bottom and will be there for at least another 2 seasons. Then we will rig up for Gars.

[Bluthy]

We can only sustain two quarters of decent footy at the moment due to low running ability and poor disposal and reactions where we turn over the ball with monotonous regularity. After another preseason it might be 3 quarters next year but the older players winning us games will have older legs or be retired so we will probably be about the same as this year in terms of games won. The year after that we should be able to be competitive for the whole game and maybe win a couple more with the young players starting to come together. By the next year we will have loaded up with some talent, be getting our fitness and hard running ability up, have our game plan embedded, have a lot of players with 50+ games and the launch is on!

[QuestionOfAccuracy]

2015 rock bottom, 2016 if our current youth doesn't live up to their hype in 3rd+ year. 2017 should be good if this years draftees don't bomb

Rebuilds aren't easy and there are no guarantees who you draft will go on and become a club stalwart.... especially with talls..

Look at the Bulldogs, we were being told by "eggsperts" that they were a year or two ahead of us in their rebuild, right now they have stalled, they don't have a key forward but they have lot's of talls, good one's are very hard to find, look at Brisbane, they don't have anyone to replace Brown, Daniher is still struggling, might be a couple of years away yet from living up to his reputation.

An 18 year old tall won't be the answer anytime soon for the Saints, it's a tough gig recruiting.

I don't necessarily buy the notion that the Bulldogs have "stalled" - they've just not done as well as the "experts" thought they would. The "experts" got way too carried. Look at the their 22 and there are still obvious weaknesses (KPPs) plus so much inexperience. By and large though, they're still more competitive than us.

When is rock bottom for us?

At this stage I'd say 2015. But, there is still half of the season to go, and fingers crossed guys like Webster, Ross, Rhys, Wright, Hickey can really step up in the remaining games.