Hit outs

[BigMart]

Put forward and thread a month or so go about the value.

It turned into a Ben vs Tom thread, of which I was more than happy to engage but I'd prefer we keep this one about the stat relevance...
Since that thread I've took particular notice of the stat vs game and clearance outcome... Believing it has little bearing. This has proven to be the case, with no correlation or statistical advantage to winning taps!

It was Matt Warnock exposed around the ground that initially that prompted me to start the thread.

Again it is Warnock who has prompted this thread

70 Hitouts to 16 in Carlton's favour
Lost the game, lost the clearances

Why is the position and in particular the stat so overrated

[dragit]

Can you do a bit of research over the past couple of seasons for us?

There is a very clear correlation between winning hitouts and winning clearances.

Hitouts are a very small part of a game and clearly do not lead to winning games on their own. I don't think anyone will argue against this premise.

What if Warnock was the best tap ruckman in the comp, but Carlton have a very ordinary side overall, particularly in the contested/clearance area?

[BigMart]

2nd point incorrect for this year

[gringo]

I still just remember the great ruck displays that have made life very easy for teams. Clark Keatings 40 meter plus punches forward that were roved by Aker and co for cheap goals were gold. Big Ottens smashing the ball down to Geelongs elite mids who could break from the centre at speed because he slapped it into their hands. Big Gardy running in eyes bulging with white line fever was as much a statement of intent for the whole team as it was a dominant display. Average rucks don't do a great deal but the same could be said for a won clearance that is immediately turned over. Stats are infinitely manipulatable but real ruck displays can can remind you of how valuable the position is. Jolly was the thinking aggressive ruck that used nous, Sandilands early career was easy taps but the great skill he had was the ability to play like a 7' tall rover when the ball hit the deck.

[Sobraz]

Taps are a useless stat. Can't see how it can be argued against..
That aside, I'm looking forward to Longer being ahead of Hickey come years end..
At current out put Pierce will be ahead of Longer in 4 weeks.

[dragit]

2nd point incorrect for this year

I'm guessing this is your way of conceding that I am correct about the previous couple of years?

[Old Mate]

Big difference between hit outs and hits outs to advantage.

[ROLS-LEE]

Can you do a bit of research over the past couple of seasons for us?

There is a very clear correlation between winning hitouts and winning clearances.

Hitouts are a very small part of a game and clearly do not lead to winning games on their own. I don't think anyone will argue against this premise.

What if Warnock was the best tap ruckman in the comp, but Carlton have a very ordinary side overall, particularly in the contested/clearance area?

Just like Minson last year. Good ruckman but young inexperienced midfield.
To get clearances its a mixture of good inside/outside midfielders and good tap ruckman vs the opposition.
Generally the team with the balance in their favour would predominantly win the clearance.

[ROLS-LEE]

Can you do a bit of research over the past couple of seasons for us?

There is a very clear correlation between winning hitouts and winning clearances.

Hitouts are a very small part of a game and clearly do not lead to winning games on their own. I don't think anyone will argue against this premise.

What if Warnock was the best tap ruckman in the comp, but Carlton have a very ordinary side overall, particularly in the contested/clearance area?

Just like Minson last year. Good ruckman but young inexperienced midfield.
To get clearances its a mixture of good inside/outside midfielders and good tap ruckman vs the opposition.
Generally the team with the balance in their favour would predominantly win the clearance.

[gringo]

Can you do a bit of research over the past couple of seasons for us?

There is a very clear correlation between winning hitouts and winning clearances.

Hitouts are a very small part of a game and clearly do not lead to winning games on their own. I don't think anyone will argue against this premise.

What if Warnock was the best tap ruckman in the comp, but Carlton have a very ordinary side overall, particularly in the contested/clearance area?

Just like Minson last year. Good ruckman but young inexperienced midfield.
To get clearances its a mixture of good inside/outside midfielders and good tap ruckman vs the opposition.
Generally the team with the balance in their favour would predominantly win the clearance.

I watched a few Bulldogs games last year and even though Libba junior won a heap of clearances (1st in the comp last year at the time) he turned over about half of the kicks and hand balls he fed out. Even the clearances are impossible to accurately breakdown. Footy stats are really misleading because there is so much that quantifies how useful that kick, handball or 1 percenter is. Watching games is the only way to tell. If you look at the games of Montagna and Milera from stats you would say Montagna was close to our best but the links of play, mercurialness and importance of the possession at the time of the game aren't measured. Even then what a fan appreciates isn't usually what a coach particularly likes.

[BigMart]

A good ruckmen needs to be a good footballer IMO and indeed a smart footballer due to obviously to lacking speed, they need to read the game

Physicality at the contest
Contested marking
Around the ground positioning

The three key aspects of a gun Ruckman

[Jacks Back]

What I don't understand is why don't the half forward flankers stand on the point of the square or even back a bit. I reckon 7 times out of 10 the ball gets kicked out to the flank from a rushed centre clearance rather than straight down the ground and yet they all line up straight down the ground.

[FQF]

BM, you were supremely confident that Longer would emerge as our number 1 ruck by the end of the year.

I'm not stirring you up, rather genuinely asking if you think he is tracking as expected or you've lowered your expectations? He just doesn't seem to be doing enough at the moment and it isn't filling me with confidence.

[gringo]

BM, you were supremely confident that Longer would emerge as our number 1 ruck by the end of the year.

I'm not stirring you up, rather genuinely asking if you think he is tracking as expected or you've lowered your expectations? He just doesn't seem to be doing enough at the moment and it isn't filling me with confidence.

I think longer is about exactly where we would expect. He goes hard at the ruck duels but timing is out ATM. He tackles and crashes in but looks a bit like he's overly enthusiastic. He looks better at the same age as a lot of other ruckmen. I always think of Will minson when I watch him. Slightly aggressive solid bodied ruck. Minson was the AA ruck last year I think so he obviously came on but he played plenty of VFL before that. I think Longer is still probably 3 years away from being the number one ruck. Big Lewie was in the Sandy bests though so we have our best ruck depth for years.

[8856brother]

If only we had big Cox.

[HitTheBoundary]

Can we make this a sticky?

It would save BM from having to make a new thread on exactly the same thing every week.

[CURLY]

Longer was basically the reason we had as many inside 50's as we did.

[Toy Saint]

It's a facinating arguement. GT (and others) reckon that ruckman are overated.

It would be great to have a Cox or Sandilands

There were times over the past few years where Jason Blake had to carry our ruck division, and we got smashed.

It's like we have a competative ruckman, they are considered overated. But if we dont have a competative ruckman, it an excuse for getting smashed.

[maverick]

Why are we talking about Matt Warnock and ruck hit outs?

[dragit]

Can we make this a sticky?

It would save BM from having to make a new thread on exactly the same thing every week.

I tried to do just this with the "hickey sticky" thread... Just got me a warning.

[dragit]

I just find it weird that if hitout ruckmen are so useless, why do all the good sides have at least one of them on their lists and generally playing every week too.

Most top 4 sides of recent years have had a gumby type in their starting 18.

In an ideal world you have a guy who can play like a midfielder but also win hitouts... Mustn't be that easy to find as there aren't many players who come close to having this combination.

Goodes used to play in the ruck like this I guess and why Natanui is talked up probably above actual output.

[Bunk_Moreland]

It's a facinating arguement. GT (and others) reckon that ruckman are over rated.

<snip>

Never heard him state that.

It was claimed he didn't rate ruckmen, but he clarified this by stating he rated GOOD ruckmen.

[66 Saints]

Strange OP. Love a good hitout to advantage but must have missed all the threads stating a ruck man only needs to win taps and not do anything else.

[BigMart]

I really rate ruckmen if they are good footballers....

I think the litmus test is, would they be a good player without their height... Or are they good at using their height

Players who are 6'6" or more, but are really only on an AFL list because they are tall... Are useless IMO

They need strings to their bow.

On Longer
Very disappointed with his lack of presence around the ground, very happy with his efforts at the stoppage. He is getting lost around the ground, and showing his inexperience by no knowing when to present, when to drop back and when to run fwd. He is ok around the stoppage because he throws his weight around, but he is ATM ineffective as a player. He is 18months younger, but yes, I would have hoped to see some clunks for a big man.
On the strength of that, he is further away than I'd hoped and I also believe he is inhibited in his play, by lack of confidence. It's a major reason he won't kick ATM. From what I've seen at VFL level is he can play. Now he just has to raise to the next level.

[Lyon Tamer]

You might be able to find examples where winning the hitouts does not equate to winning the game, however I think the majority of times the winner of hitouts will equate to a win.

If you look through history, there would be times when the team with less inside 50s have won but would you say that that is an irrelevant stat? The same with scoring shots.

While you would rather have more hit outs than your opponent, I do agree with you that hitouts to advantage are far more important.