Inexperinced or just not good enough?

[Loyally Numbed]

Whenever this sort of discussion comes up, I have to bring Leigh Montagna into the discussion.

His first four years of footy:

2002: 1 game, 0 goals, per game: 4.0 disposals, 2.0 tackles
2003: 12 games, 12 goals, per game: 10.4 disposals, 1.5 tackles
2004: 9 games, 9 goals, per game: 11.2 disposals, 2.8 tackles
2005: 8 games, 6 goals, per game: 15.1 disposals, 2.4 tackles

At the start of 06 he'd shown basically nothing to suggest that he could be a quality AFL player. He was 23, played 30 games, had five pre-seasons under his belt. He'd predominantly played as a small forward/half-forward flanker but he wasn't even kicking that many goals.

2006: 22 games, 12 goals, per game: 19.1 disposals, 3.7 tackles
2007: 21 games, 10 goals, per game: 23.9 disposals, 3.6 tackles
2008: 25 games, 12 goals, per game: 22.7 disposals, 3.3 tackles

In 06 he turned a corner and lifted his workrate. Suddenly he became an AFL quality midfielder. He crossed the 30 possession barrier for the first time. He was also tackling a lot more. And that grew into 07, when he picked up 9 Brownlow votes and finished 3rd in our B&F. He still wasn't exactly a superstar but he was doing pretty well - four 30+ possession games. 08 wasn't quite as good but he played every game including 3 finals.

2009: 24 games, 8 goals, per game: 27.9 disposals, 6.3 tackles
2010: 26 games, 18 goals, per game: 28.7 disposals, 4.9 tackles

Finally in 2009, his 8th season in the competition, when he was 26 years old, he hit his straps. He was All-Australian and finished equal 14th in the Brownlow. He had lots of 30+ games and one 40+. The next year similar: he was All-Australian again and finished equal 9th in the Brownlow, 2nd in our B&F. His contested possession and tackle rates increased and he just got more of the footy. He'd become a true all-round midfielder.

But no-one predicted that in 2005 when he was only picked for 8 games, one for less than 10 possessions and only two over 20. He was 22 and this was his fourth year in the system, but he was nowhere near the player he'd become.

We've got twenty guys on the list who basically fit the category of Joey in 2005: Roberton, Weller, Markworth, Bruce, Curren, Siposs, Newnes, Ross, Longer, Webster, Minchington, Murdoch, Wright, Saunders, White, Pierce, Dunstan, Billings, Templeton, Acres.

I'm not saying all these guys will be stars. Half of them probably won't make it, and only one or two will be All-Australian - if we're lucky. But I am saying that some guys take years to come on.

Not sure why that is exactly. Maybe it's just very hard to play sport at an elite level. Strength and stamina have to build up gradually - not many 18 year olds have a body like Luke Dunstan. And the mental aspects take even longer to solidify. With Joey it was workrate. It took him years to understand how hard you have to work to be an AFL footballer, let alone to be a star. Lenny Hayes is living proof that the mental aspect of the game is at least as important as the physical aspect. Not many 18 year olds have a Chris Judd-style perfectly well-balanced psychology. When I was 18 I was all over the shop. Must be even harder as an elite athlete.

So I think you're underestimating how hard it is to succeed in the AFL. Underage footy is a fundamentally different game.

Very informative thanks for taking the time to post it.

The problem with this is the context, in that time frame the team was very strong and could afford to be patient with fringe Players.

Also, even though his stats aren't that great in early games, he may have shown flashes of brilliance that would indicate that he was worth persevering with.

Maybe we had individuals at the coaching/admin level who were just better judges of this kind of thing.

It's not a question of underestimating how hard it is to succeed in AFL, the fact is a lot of our recruits from the last half dozen years haven't been able to succeed in AFL.

There are people at the club who are paid to assess this, and it's getting a little frustrating to hear the old, "needs more time" spiel, especially when they've come and gone and done nothing !

[Cairnsman]

Whenever this sort of discussion comes up, I have to bring Leigh Montagna into the discussion.

His first four years of footy:

2002: 1 game, 0 goals, per game: 4.0 disposals, 2.0 tackles
2003: 12 games, 12 goals, per game: 10.4 disposals, 1.5 tackles
2004: 9 games, 9 goals, per game: 11.2 disposals, 2.8 tackles
2005: 8 games, 6 goals, per game: 15.1 disposals, 2.4 tackles

At the start of 06 he'd shown basically nothing to suggest that he could be a quality AFL player. He was 23, played 30 games, had five pre-seasons under his belt. He'd predominantly played as a small forward/half-forward flanker but he wasn't even kicking that many goals.

2006: 22 games, 12 goals, per game: 19.1 disposals, 3.7 tackles
2007: 21 games, 10 goals, per game: 23.9 disposals, 3.6 tackles
2008: 25 games, 12 goals, per game: 22.7 disposals, 3.3 tackles

In 06 he turned a corner and lifted his workrate. Suddenly he became an AFL quality midfielder. He crossed the 30 possession barrier for the first time. He was also tackling a lot more. And that grew into 07, when he picked up 9 Brownlow votes and finished 3rd in our B&F. He still wasn't exactly a superstar but he was doing pretty well - four 30+ possession games. 08 wasn't quite as good but he played every game including 3 finals.

2009: 24 games, 8 goals, per game: 27.9 disposals, 6.3 tackles
2010: 26 games, 18 goals, per game: 28.7 disposals, 4.9 tackles

Finally in 2009, his 8th season in the competition, when he was 26 years old, he hit his straps. He was All-Australian and finished equal 14th in the Brownlow. He had lots of 30+ games and one 40+. The next year similar: he was All-Australian again and finished equal 9th in the Brownlow, 2nd in our B&F. His contested possession and tackle rates increased and he just got more of the footy. He'd become a true all-round midfielder.

But no-one predicted that in 2005 when he was only picked for 8 games, one for less than 10 possessions and only two over 20. He was 22 and this was his fourth year in the system, but he was nowhere near the player he'd become.

We've got twenty guys on the list who basically fit the category of Joey in 2005: Roberton, Weller, Markworth, Bruce, Curren, Siposs, Newnes, Ross, Longer, Webster, Minchington, Murdoch, Wright, Saunders, White, Pierce, Dunstan, Billings, Templeton, Acres.

I'm not saying all these guys will be stars. Half of them probably won't make it, and only one or two will be All-Australian - if we're lucky. But I am saying that some guys take years to come on.

Not sure why that is exactly. Maybe it's just very hard to play sport at an elite level. Strength and stamina have to build up gradually - not many 18 year olds have a body like Luke Dunstan. And the mental aspects take even longer to solidify. With Joey it was workrate. It took him years to understand how hard you have to work to be an AFL footballer, let alone to be a star. Lenny Hayes is living proof that the mental aspect of the game is at least as important as the physical aspect. Not many 18 year olds have a Chris Judd-style perfectly well-balanced psychology. When I was 18 I was all over the shop. Must be even harder as an elite athlete.

So I think you're underestimating how hard it is to succeed in the AFL. Underage footy is a fundamentally different game.

Very informative thanks for taking the time to post it.

The problem with this is the context, in that time frame the team was very strong and could afford to be patient with fringe Players.

Also, even though his stats aren't that great in early games, he may have shown flashes of brilliance that would indicate that he was worth persevering with.

Maybe we had individuals at the coaching/admin level who were just better judges of this kind of thing.

It's not a question of underestimating how hard it is to succeed in AFL, the fact is a lot of our recruits from the last half dozen years haven't been able to succeed in AFL.

There are people at the club who are paid to assess this, and it's getting a little frustrating to hear the old, "needs more time" spiel, especially when they've come and gone and done nothing !

Mate it's a shame your career was cut down in its prime, I would have loved to see you running around in the Red, White & Black.

Have you ever considered cryonics and maybe come back when they've found a cure for your leg issues.

[Loyally Numbed]

Mate it's a shame your career was cut down in its prime, I would have loved to see you running around in the Red, White & Black.

Have you ever considered cryonics and maybe come back when they've found a cure for your leg issues.

Most people who saw me play swear I had the physical power of a Locket with the brains and skill of a Baldock.

Please accept my sincerest apologies in that my misfortune kept you from being able to boast about the multiple flags and Brownlow medals that surely would have eventuated for St. Kilda had I been able to play.

[dragit]

Mate it's a shame your career was cut down in its prime, I would have loved to see you running around in the Red, White & Black.

Have you ever considered cryonics and maybe come back when they've found a cure for your leg issues.

Most people who saw me play swear I had the physical power of a Locket with the brains and skill of a Baldock.

Please accept my sincerest apologies in that my misfortune kept you from being able to boast about the multiple flags and Brownlow medals that surely would have eventuated for St. Kilda had I been able to play.

First Graeme Gellie, then Loyally Numbed… we can't take a trick.

[Cairnsman]

Mate it's a shame your career was cut down in its prime, I would have loved to see you running around in the Red, White & Black.

Have you ever considered cryonics and maybe come back when they've found a cure for your leg issues.

Most people who saw me play swear I had the physical power of a Locket with the brains and skill of a Baldock.

Please accept my sincerest apologies in that my misfortune kept you from being able to boast about the multiple flags and Brownlow medals that surely would have eventuated for St. Kilda had I been able to play.

First Graeme Gellie, then Loyally Numbed… we can't take a trick.

Do you think he's got a tinge of Warrick Capper too?

[Dis Believer]

Mate it's a shame your career was cut down in its prime, I would have loved to see you running around in the Red, White & Black.

Have you ever considered cryonics and maybe come back when they've found a cure for your leg issues.

Most people who saw me play swear I had the physical power of a Locket with the brains and skill of a Baldock.

Please accept my sincerest apologies in that my misfortune kept you from being able to boast about the multiple flags and Brownlow medals that surely would have eventuated for St. Kilda had I been able to play.

First Graeme Gellie, then Loyally Numbed… we can't take a trick.

Do you think he's got a tinge of Warrick Capper too?

The only one I know that fits that description is Dean Greig - you had an awesome debut man........

[bergholt]

Most people who saw me play swear I had the physical power of a Locket with the brains and skill of a Baldock.

Most people who saw me play said I had the height of Danny Craven, the skills of Jayson Daniels, the toughness of Aaron Fiora and the goal kicking ability of Jamie Shanahan.

[Loyally Numbed]

Most people who saw me play swear I had the physical power of a Locket with the brains and skill of a Baldock.

Most people who saw me play said I had the height of Danny Craven, the skills of Jayson Daniels, the toughness of Aaron Fiora and the goal kicking ability of Jamie Shanahan.

Well, I expect the Saints Recruiting Department will be knocking down your door any day now.

[PJ]

I think you've argued your own point down regarding our younguns. The fact that the Hawthorn, Geelong, etc youngsters are doing well is because they are coming up underneath a strong established team that will make them look like superstars or at least give them some really strong support and opportunity to show their talent. Some relatively experienced players on our list have questionable skills so theses guys will have to work harder and will often come off looking average in comparison.

This doesn't mean they are not up to it but will probably mean they will take a little longer to acquire the skills and endurance required.

I don't think it's an excuse more reality.

[Saint wagga]

Joey was in and out of a much better performed side in most of his formative years, a side that for the most was competing for finals and 04 and 05, MASSIVE finals! I'm interested to see if people think this will affect our youngsters, for better or worse...IMO We'll probably have a higher attrition rate (ie: players cut quicker because we simply have to find ones that can develop quicker to avoid the absolute bottoming out phase which I don't think will happen until Lenny is gone from the middle and Roo gone from the forward line)...

[bergholt]

Joey was in and out of a much better performed side in most of his formative years, a side that for the most was competing for finals and 04 and 05, MASSIVE finals! I'm interested to see if people think this will affect our youngsters, for better or worse...IMO We'll probably have a higher attrition rate (ie: players cut quicker because we simply have to find ones that can develop quicker to avoid the absolute bottoming out phase which I don't think will happen until Lenny is gone from the middle and Roo gone from the forward line)...

The opposite happened with Melbourne. Their list is full of these mediocre guys who've played a bunch of games because you can't cut everyone every year:

Lynden Dunn: 125 games
Colin Garland: 102 games
Jack Watts: 81 games
Jordie McKenzie: 71 games
Rohan Bail: 52 games
Neville Jetta: 45 games
Luke Tapscott: 45 games
Sam Blease: 31 games
Dan Nicholson: 31 games

Most of these guys would have played less than half as many games at a good club and then been cut. (Maybe except Watts.) I'm sure we'll have guys who do similar as we're rebuilding. Just hopefully not too many.

[Saint wagga]

Good point Bergholt...hopefully we can recruit far more astutely than melbourne and also attract some high end talent thru free agency at the right time when closer to our window opening to avoid having too many GOP's (a lot rests with Pelchen, fingers crossed he gets it done!!)

[Loyally Numbed]

I think you've argued your own point down regarding our younguns. The fact that the Hawthorn, Geelong, etc youngsters are doing well is because they are coming up underneath a strong established team that will make them look like superstars or at least give them some really strong support and opportunity to show their talent. Some relatively experienced players on our list have questionable skills so theses guys will have to work harder and will often come off looking average in comparison.

This doesn't mean they are not up to it but will probably mean they will take a little longer to acquire the skills and endurance required.

I don't think it's an excuse more reality.

What you say just highlights a very worrying point, WE HAD A STRONG ESTABLISHED TEAM !!!!

[dragit]

I think you've argued your own point down regarding our younguns. The fact that the Hawthorn, Geelong, etc youngsters are doing well is because they are coming up underneath a strong established team that will make them look like superstars or at least give them some really strong support and opportunity to show their talent. Some relatively experienced players on our list have questionable skills so theses guys will have to work harder and will often come off looking average in comparison.

This doesn't mean they are not up to it but will probably mean they will take a little longer to acquire the skills and endurance required.

I don't think it's an excuse more reality.

What you say just highlights a very worrying point, WE HAD A STRONG ESTABLISHED TEAM !!!!

Not when our current young guns arrived, when we had a string team we failed at the draft 3 years running.

[Loyally Numbed]

I think you've argued your own point down regarding our younguns. The fact that the Hawthorn, Geelong, etc youngsters are doing well is because they are coming up underneath a strong established team that will make them look like superstars or at least give them some really strong support and opportunity to show their talent. Some relatively experienced players on our list have questionable skills so theses guys will have to work harder and will often come off looking average in comparison.

This doesn't mean they are not up to it but will probably mean they will take a little longer to acquire the skills and endurance required.

I don't think it's an excuse more reality.

What you say just highlights a very worrying point, WE HAD A STRONG ESTABLISHED TEAM !!!!

Not when our current young guns arrived, when we had a string team we failed at the draft 3 years running.

Yes, but comparing the two Grand Final teams of 2009, both teams have lost about the same amount of players with Geelong, arguably, losing higher quality players, e.g. Ling, Scarllett, Ablett !, Ottens etc.

Did Geelong wallow at the bottom of the ladder for years using the , "takes time to blood new players" line? No.

Gotta be more than just luck, doesn't it?

[Cairnsman]

I think you've argued your own point down regarding our younguns. The fact that the Hawthorn, Geelong, etc youngsters are doing well is because they are coming up underneath a strong established team that will make them look like superstars or at least give them some really strong support and opportunity to show their talent. Some relatively experienced players on our list have questionable skills so theses guys will have to work harder and will often come off looking average in comparison.

This doesn't mean they are not up to it but will probably mean they will take a little longer to acquire the skills and endurance required.

I don't think it's an excuse more reality.

What you say just highlights a very worrying point, WE HAD A STRONG ESTABLISHED TEAM !!!!

Not when our current young guns arrived, when we had a string team we failed at the draft 3 years running.

Yes, but comparing the two Grand Final teams of 2009, both teams have lost about the same amount of players with Geelong, arguably, losing higher quality players, e.g. Ling, Scarllett, Ablett !, Ottens etc.

Did Geelong wallow at the bottom of the ladder for years using the , "takes time to blood new players" line? No.

Gotta be more than just luck, doesn't it?

They say if you let water run through your hands it feels wet.

[dragit]

Yes, but comparing the two Grand Final teams of 2009, both teams have lost about the same amount of players with Geelong, arguably, losing higher quality players, e.g. Ling, Scarllett, Ablett !, Ottens etc.

Did Geelong wallow at the bottom of the ladder for years using the , "takes time to blood new players" line? No.

Gotta be more than just luck, doesn't it?

No-one is saying luck… Geelong have drafted and developed well, we have not, it's not that hard.

The ability to use their first pick on Selwood instead of Hawkins, plus 2 first round picks for Ablett who they took at pick 40 was handy too.

[Loyally Numbed]

Yes, but comparing the two Grand Final teams of 2009, both teams have lost about the same amount of players with Geelong, arguably, losing higher quality players, e.g. Ling, Scarllett, Ablett !, Ottens etc.

Did Geelong wallow at the bottom of the ladder for years using the , "takes time to blood new players" line? No.

Gotta be more than just luck, doesn't it?

No-one is saying luck… Geelong have drafted and developed well, we have not, it's not that hard.

The ability to use their first pick on Selwood instead of Hawkins, plus 2 first round picks for Ablett who they took at pick 40 was handy too.

I know it's not that hard to work out, but is it enough to just calmly rationalize it?

Don't the Members and Supporters have some responsibilty to put some pressure on the powers that be, to raise their game?

Is that the X factor that we lack and Geelong has, a real or percieved pressure placed on the Admin to succed ?

Being a calm and cool armchair expert is fine and dandy, but, hey, we're down the bottom of the ladder AGAIN, WTF .

[White Winmar]

Most people who saw me play swear I had the physical power of a Locket with the brains and skill of a Baldock.

Most people who saw me play said I had the height of Danny Craven, the skills of Jayson Daniels, the toughness of Aaron Fiora and the goal kicking ability of Jamie Shanahan.

You missed your chance, Bergholt. You would've been an ideal "role player" in the 2009-10 GFs. Your non-selection probably cost us a flag.

[Dis Believer]

Yes, but comparing the two Grand Final teams of 2009, both teams have lost about the same amount of players with Geelong, arguably, losing higher quality players, e.g. Ling, Scarllett, Ablett !, Ottens etc.

Did Geelong wallow at the bottom of the ladder for years using the , "takes time to blood new players" line? No.

Gotta be more than just luck, doesn't it?

No-one is saying luck… Geelong have drafted and developed well, we have not, it's not that hard.

The ability to use their first pick on Selwood instead of Hawkins, plus 2 first round picks for Ablett who they took at pick 40 was handy too.

I know it's not that hard to work out, but is it enough to just calmly rationalize it?

Don't the Members and Supporters have some responsibilty to put some pressure on the powers that be, to raise their game?

Is that the X factor that we lack and Geelong has, a real or percieved pressure placed on the Admin to succed ?

Being a calm and cool armchair expert is fine and dandy, but, hey, we're down the bottom of the ladder AGAIN, WTF .

But exerting pressure on the current admin will acheive nothing. The root of our current problems stems from our recruiting during the years we were challenging. We failed to continue to draft the best young talent available to us and instead selected ready made role players and speculative, left field selections. Geelong continued to inject youngsters into the bottom end of their list. Pressuring our current admin doesn't undo what happened. The other factor at play is that Geelong focussed their limited recruiting resources on knowing their old recruiting "zone" better then everyone else and exploiting it better. They had a better plan in that regard than us. I think our recruiting and list management in the past two or three years is the best it has ever been, and by a large margin. But the benefits of that are not reaped overnight, which is unfortunate as the costs of our mistakes have reared their head much sooner.

[dragit]

Don't the Members and Supporters have some responsibilty to put some pressure on the powers that be, to raise their game?

Being a calm and cool armchair expert is fine and dandy, but, hey, we're down the bottom of the ladder AGAIN, WTF .

Hit us with your plan to put pressure on the powers that be...

It's an entirely new board & football dept than the one which caused these problems. Comprehend it.